Aceves approaching his end?

The only good thing to be said for last night's game was that it got called in the seventh inning. Alfredo Aceves struggled mightily, and while he was correct that the conditions were less than ideal, old friend Bartolo Colon was pitching in the same rainy weather and managed seven scoreless innings.

Luckily for the Red Sox, John Lackey is supposed to be back this Sunday, and will make a second run at his first win of the season - perhaps the reemergence of a (hopefully healthy) Lackey will finally mean the door for Aceves. Given Aceves' maddening inconsistency paired with his inability to take responsibility for his bad performances, it's increasingly obvious that he's not what this team needs in terms of chemistry.

Daniel Bard has been recalled from AA Portland, and will be in the bullpen this evening - if the former heir-apparent to Jonathan Papelbon can get his feet back underneath him in the bigs, Aceves' services might no longer be needed. Jon Lester starts tonight, and he's just the man I want on the mound after the abysmal performance the Sox turned in last night; he should be able togo deep into the game and spare the bullpen after last night's debacle.

Bard back on track?

I grew up in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, which is a pretty hefty three hour drive to Fenway Park - but only around ninety minutes to Hadlock Field and the Portland Sea Dogs.  When I was a kid, the Sea Dogs were a part of the Florida Marlins organization, but they joined the Red Sox farm system (Double A) in 2003, and locals rejoiced, because we could finally follow local minor leaguers up to our major league rooting interest.

I was at a Seadogs game late in the 2008 season, and many of the most promising prospects had already been moved up a notch as the Red Sox called up some players for roster expansion.  There weren't many players on the field that day who were Baseball America household names, and the crowd was paying very little attention to the late-season contest.

Daniel Bard came in as a relief pitcher (after a disastrous first year in the minors as a starter in 2007, the Red Sox converted him to a reliever, with great results), and I remember the sensation of hearing all side conversations around me stop, as fans noticed the skinny kid lighting up the radar gun after seven innings of pitchers tossing in the mid-eighties.

Nothing changed when he initially came up to the big club: he'd come in during the eighth inning (to set up for Jonathan Papelbon) and routinely clock pitches in the triple digits while the crowd cheered its approval. When the Red Sox announced that they were going to make him a starter last year, I wasn't worried - despite the fact that history told us how that experiment would end.

By all accounts so far in spring training, Bard looks like he's back on track. We won't know anything for sure until the games start (the real ones, not spring training games), but I have high hopes for him this season. The bullpen is shaping up to be a real strength for this team, and Bard - if he gets himself back to form - could be a huge part of that potential success.

2013 Bill James Projections - Daniel Bard

2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
2012: 5-6, 59.1 IP, 43 BB, 38 SO, 6.22 ERA, 0 saves
2013 projection: 3-4, 67 IP, 28 BB, 67 SO, 3.63 ERA, 1 save

We saw it before, when the Yankees screwed up the development of Joba Chamberlain, switching him from starter to reliever and back again, instituting the "Joba Rules" of innings limits and generally making certain to squander the potential of their best reliever outside of the legendary Mariano Rivera.

There were fans who were concerned that the same thing would happen to Daniel Bard when the idea of switching him to a starter was first floated last offseason. I have to admit that I did not share those concerns  despite the fact that Bard's biggest stride in the minor leagues was made when he was switched from the rotation to the bullpen; I should have seen this coming.

The Daniel Bard as a starter experiment was a failure of epic proportions, in a season marked by failures on every level. After a somewhat promising Spring Training, it became very clear once the season started that Bard wasn't working in the rotation. He made ten starts, but ended the season as disappointed as the rest of us.

Hopefully a return to the bullpen will improve Bard's numbers as much as Bill James and his team seems to think - an ERA drop of almost three full runs is nothing to sneeze at. The rotation is (for the moment) full, and there's no need for Bard to deal the the added pressures of closing, since the Red Sox currently have two experienced closers. In addition, the presence of John Farrell can only help things for formerly struggling Red Sox pitchers. I think (I hope!) Bard will return to his former dominance in an eighth inning role in 2013.

A look on the bright side.

I'm tempering my alarm, using every ounce of logic I can come up with to keep the hot bubble of panic from rising up inside me. It's only six games. It's one more win than we had last year at this time. We'll lose 5-of-6 in July and no one will notice.  Sometimes it works. More often, I get more creeping thoughts encroaching on my logic: The bullpen is in shambles. Bobby V is a nutcase (though admittedly nowhere near as nutty as Ozzie Guillen - but that's another post). Youkilis is falling apart. And on and on and on.

But enough of those crazy voices in my head (is it just me, or do you guys have them too?). There is plenty to be excited about so far this season, and if you - like me - sometimes have difficulty bringing these to mind, here they are in a convenient list.

1. Jon Lester is in mid-season form, and seems to be taking the whole "make up for September" thing very seriously. Lester has traditionally struggled in April, but he has absolutely dominated in his first two outings, and the fact that he doesn't have a win yet is just more evidence for how useless a stat the win can be.
2. Daniel Bard's first start was promising, though the surface numbers (5IP, 5 earned runs, and a loss) are less than ideal. Bard recorded six strikeouts, allowed just one walk, and induced eighteen swings-and-misses at his pitches. His BABIP was way above average (a fancy way of saying more balls fell in for hits than is normal - the law of averages should make up for that over a full season).
3. Dustin Pedroia looks ready, willing, and able to carry this team on his back all the way to the playoffs. The sparkplug second baseman began late rallies multiple times this week, seemingly willing the Red Sox to score runs. I don't think the Red Sox will be awarding a "C" to a player any time soon, but we all know who the leader is inside that clubhouse.
4. Adrian Gonzalez seems to have come to understand us. Last year he was calling for fans to relax after the 0-6 start.  Not so this year, after an off-season of Sox mea culpas, Gonzo was out there claiming that the first game in Toronto was a must win. Gonzo came prepared - he has six RBIs so far this season.
5. [This one is more personal, so I apologize in advance.] I am in the United States of America, in Red Sox Nation, where I can watch baseball on my TV.  At this time last year I was in Dakar, Senegal, praying that the power/WiFi wouldn't go out, and paying a classmate 10,000 CFA (about $20) to use his mlb.tv account. This is much better.

It's all going to be okay. This team is solid (though the bullpen is more suspect than I would prefer), and over the course of 2012 they are going to win a lot of games. There will probably be more drama than we've been used to since Manny took off, courtesy of Bobby V., but what's Boston baseball without a few shenanigans?

Now I will never get that image out of my head

When asked about the differences between being a starter and a reliever, Daniel Bard cited the pre-game routine. Relievers hang out and mess around, while each starter has his own ritual he'll follow every five days.

"Every guy has their own thing. [John] Lackey walks around with no pants on, bounces a baseball, eats peanut butter and jelly. Jon Lester got his headphones in, but he's still walking around, talking to guys. Curt Schilling was a guy that nobody could talk to 'til the last pitch was thrown. I just try to be me whatever that is."

The latter two I can live with - in fact, they are exactly what I imagined Lester and Schill doing before their starts. As for the revelation about Lackey? THAT was an image I NEVER needed in my head. So as my apology to all of you for putting it in YOUR head, here's a video of Philly Jonathan Papelbon impersonating Terry Francona:

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

Andrew Bailey to the Sox

 According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox have traded for Oakland A's closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.  Josh Reddick will be shipping out to Oakland, and  Class-A first baseman Miles Head and Class-A pitcher Raul Alcantara will be headed to A's minor league affiliate.

I know some of you grew pretty fond of Reddick last season, since he spent more than half the season with the big club, but his shoes are sure to be filled by someone capable.  While Rookie Reddick was serviceable, batting .280 with seven home runs and 28 RBIs in 87 games, he played just 56 of those games in right field.  According to the Globe's Pete Abraham, the Sox were downright deplorable in right field last season:

Red Sox right fielders hit .233/.299/.353 last season with 14 homers and 58 RBIs. Going by OPS, only Seattle was worse in the American League.

It's unlikely that Sweeney would end up being the full-time right fielder, as he's capable of playing all three outfield positions, and he seems to be more of a utility/fourth outfielder type, batting .265 with 25 RBIs and just one home run last season in 108 games.  We'll probably be seeing a lot of Ryan Kalish, who has hopefully fully recovered from all of his ailments.  Obviously, Kalish won't just be handed the job - there will be some competition in Spring Training.

But we all know that the gem of this deal is 27-year-old Andrew Bailey.  Since the departure of Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox Nation has been understandably worried about who is going to be closing games, especially because former heir-apparent Daniel Bard has expressed interest in starting.  Bailey should be a serviceable replacement, as he has 75 saves in his three-year career, and though his ERA went up considerably last year (1.47 to 3.24), he had nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks.

It will be interesting to see how Bailey fares in the AL East, especially after spending his career in the somewhat cushier AL West (though I'm sure he's happy he doesn't have to face the Angels and Albert Pujols 18 times a season).  All in all, this is a solid move for new GM Ben Cherington - maybe it will even get Red Sox Nation off his back.

Tough luck, Timmy

 [Cartoon from Boston Dirt Dogs - I'm unsure of the date.]

Tim Wakefield was yet again denied his 200th win - despite leaving the game with a comfortable 8-5 lead.  Once again, the bullpen just couldn't do it for the iron man knuckler.

Unsurprisingly, in public Wakefield downplayed the personal importance of a 200th career win with the Red Sox, instead emphasizing the team angle, that the important thing now is for the RED SOX to win games, and get to the postseason: “If it happens, it happens.  If it doesn’t, it doesn’t change what I’ve done. I’d like it to happen. But more importantly, I think, is for us to get into the postseason. … That’s our ultimate goal.”

He's correct, of course, that not reaching 200 wins wouldn't change what he's done for the Sox in his nineteen-year career (seventeen years in Boston).  The fans (including yours truly) will still love and respect him, and I think we can all agree that we'd rather see a Pennant and a World Series win than Wakey's 200th W.

That said, I would REALLY like to see Tim Wakefield reach this milestone.  Over the course of his career he's been a team player (with a few notable, passive-aggressive exceptions in the last couple of years), and a perennial contributor to charity endeavors of all kinds. The cool thing about a team like the Red Sox is that not only are the fans all pulling for Wake, the players are, too. Judging by Daniel Bard's reaction to blowing the lead last night, I think we can safely say that he might have been more upset that Wakey was.

Personally, I'm not giving up hope, yet. The season has a few more weeks to go - and even if Tim Wakefield gets moved to the bullpen for the duration of the postseason (not unlikely), he has a good sporting chance of reaching his milestone.

Five-minute Musings (Live from Buenos Aires!)

The Red Sox won again yesterday afternoon, and slowly but surely seem to be emerging from their funk.  Though the team is just 6-11, 4.5 games behind the firs-place Yankees, they seem to be coming to life.  So since I'm sitting in class on a day when the entire country of Argentina is on holiday (again, BEST STUDENT EVER), I'll leave you with five semi-related points:

1. Clay Buchholz notched his first win of the season.  Sadly, I forgot to put him in my fantasy league starting roster for yesterday, so I didn't profit from his fortune.  I was unable to catch the beginning of the game, so by the time I tuned in Clay was out, but from what I hear he was pretty good until the sixth inning, when he loaded the bases with one out, which leads us to...

2. Daniel Bard: The Stopper.  Saves are a wildly overrated statistic.  Without Bard's brilliance in the sixth and seventh innings yesterday, Jonathan Papelbon would not have had the chance to give us all heart palpitations getting the save.  Bard came in with the go-ahead run at the plate and one out - a much more high-pressure situation than the one Jonathan Papelbon dealt with (bases empty, 3-run lead, no outs).  Bard is clearly capable of being poised under pressure, and I'm glad he's on our side.

3. Jed Lowrie is a champion.  The 27-year-old is demanding that terry Francona find a way to put him into the lineup every day, with his .462 batting average, 3 homers, and 11 RBIs in just 13 games. The beauty of Lowrie is that he can play all four infield positions (though only 19 innings in his career at first base), and so Tito can utilize him at a variety of positions to get his potent bat in the lineup.  Clearly, this crazy hot streak can't continue, but if Lowrie continues to produce better than Scutaro, something's gotta give, so stay tuned for that.

4. Despite struggles, the Red Sox CAN be successful against lefties.  Oakland starter Gio Gonzalez is a southpaw, and yet the Sox managed to score four runs off of him.  Notable lefthanded hitter David Ortiz was sitting, though part of that was the shuffling required to get red-hot Lowrie into the game (Youkilis DHed, Lowrie played at third).  However, lefties Carl Crawford, JD Drew, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jacoby Ellsbury were in the lineup, and they managed three hits and two RBIs between them. However...

5. ...Looking ahead, the Sox have a lot of right-handed opponents.  The Angels have four right-handed starters on the docket for this weekend, according to the match-ups just posted on Boston.com's extra bases Blog, and the Sox have Josh Beckett, John Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey ready to go.  With the wealth of good left-handed batters on the Sox' roster, this weekend could be a slugfest - hopefully our pitchers can build off the success they had during the last turn through the rotation.

I see good things ahead for the Red Sox.  Sadly, I won't be watching much, as I'm still an hour ahead of Eastern Standard time, so today's and tomorrow's games won't end until after 2am for me... Hopefully Saturday and Sunday will find me watching some baseball.

Lefty for lefty: Andrew Miller to the Sox

Former Tigers and Marlins LHP Andrew Miller.

As some of you might have heard, the Red Sox recently (Friday) finalized a deal with the Marlins that will send left reliever Dustin Richardson to the Marlins for lefty Andrew Miller. On the surface, the two are pretty similar: both were draft picks out of college in 2006, Richardson is 6'6", 220 lbs, while Miller is 6'7", 210 lbs, and both hail from the south (Kansas and Florida, respectively).

However, this is where the similarities end. Richardson was brought along very cautiously by the Sox, as is their general pattern with pitching; he didn't make his big-league debut until September 28, 2009 against Toronto (1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 SO, 0 BB, 0 ER).

Successful debut? Yessir.

On the other hand, Miller was pitching for the big-league Tigers just twenty-two days after he signed with the club, and sixty-four days after his last game as a collegiate pitcher, debuting for the big club on August 30, 2006. The then 21-year-old pitched a scoreless eighth inning - at Yankee Stadium, no less - and I'm sure several Tigers execs patted themselves on the backs for rushing him to the bigs.

Unfortunately, Miller's success would be rather tempered after that, and he was traded to the Marlins in the winter of 2007, part of the package of players that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit.

Andrew Miller has literally never spent an entire season in the minor leagues - not even a shortened Low-A type season. His career numbers look like this: 15-26, 5.84 ERA, 294.1 IP. Dustin Richardson, on the other hand, spent all of 2006-08 in the minors, and most of 2009, and his numbers look like this: 0-0, 3.31 ERA, 16.1 IP. Miller's WAR stands at -3.8 for his career, and Richardson's is 0.3.

So at first glance, it looks like the Red Sox are getting a raw deal here. However, you all know that I trust Theo Epstein almost unconditionally, and you don't have to look all that deep to see Miller's appeal. Relief pitching is notoriously volatile, and Richardson is a young reliever coming off a generally consistent year, and so Theo is selling high, something he loves to do.

Miller is a former sixth pick overall, and he's also the former teammate of another Sox relief pitcher: fellow-2006-first-rounder Daniel Bard. Bard fell to 28th overall, where the Sox scooped him up, and kept him in the minors for three years before he made his debut in May of 2009. Bard, of course, has never looked back.

Daniel Bard (above) and Miller were light-out teammates at UNC.

Despite all of Miller's well-documented struggles, Bard still thinks he's a great pitcher, and that perhaps the Marlins tried to do just a little too much tinkering with his delivery: “The stuff was too good. The projectability with his body was there. To me, it still is. All the tools are still there. Nothing has changed. I’m sure he had some stumbles along the way he would like to get rid of, but he’s still only 25-years-old and on the cusp of being a really good major league pitcher.”

Of course, the Red Sox have some very good pitching coaches in the organization, even without the now-departed John Farrell, and I'm sure Theo has something in mind to get the still-young lefty back on track. The praise of Daniel Bard should not be taken lightly: by now, he's figured out what it takes to be an affective big-league pitcher, regarding actual skills and mental toughness, and if he thinks Andrew Miller has it, I'm inclined to trust him.




[Quote in this post from WEEI.]

Royal Pedigree?

Though I didn't take this photo, I was present at Felix Doubront's MLB debut in June, and he struck out Manny Ramirez during his first return to Fenway Park.

It's always about the pitching. Despite two rain delays totaling two hours and forty-three minutes (according to the estimable and meticulous Peter Abraham), Clay Buchholz went six innings and allowed no runs, scattering five hits and three walks.

Daniel Bard relieved then Buch in the seventh inning, and stumped the Jays; despite a wild pitch and a walk, the presumptive close-in-waiting got through the frame with two strikeouts, and without letting up a run.

However, for me, the most interesting pitching performance was by youngster Felix Doubront, who came in to pitch the eighth inning while the Sox were leading by just three runs. As we have come to expect from the young southpaw, Doubront got through the inning with a small hiccup of an infield single.

The Red Sox would score two runs in the bottom of the eighth, and so the warming-Papelbon sat back down and allowed Doubront to finish the contest.

Despite a triple(!) by David Ortiz, I think the most exciting aspect of the game was the pitching of Felix Doubront, who proved (once again) that he is capable of pitching in important situations. Sure, this wasn't the World Series, or even a particularly high-stakes game, but it wasn't a blowout, either.

According to SoxProspects.com, Doubront

"utilizes a 91-94 mph fastball, a very good 79-81 mph changeup with screwball action, and an impressive-but-inconsistent mid-70s curveball. Flawless and fluid downward pitching motion with excellent control. Deceptive delivery, hitters don't pick up the ball until late, causing his fastball to look a little faster. Used to struggle against left-handed batters, but seemed to fix this issue in 2009. He has a reserved and modest demeanor, but is aggressive and poised on the mound. "

Well, we're certainly seeing all that, and I think Doubront's promise extends far beyond being a poised reliever. If so, I think he needs a nickname... Prince Felix, anyone?

Red Sox Rookie Hazing

As you might guess (last roadtrip of the regular season), the rookie hazing was underway last night, and it had a Wizard of Oz theme.

Here's a few of Daniel Bard, the Not-So-Cowardly Lion:
Classic. Now, Junichi Tazawa, most confused Dorothy ever:
Michael Bowden, the sexy Tinman:
Finally, and least related to the Oz theme, George Kottaras, in a sailor suit:
All photos are courtesy of @GizaWBZ ... Thanks!