2013 Bill James Projections - Ryan Sweeney

2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI
2012: 63 games, .260 BA, .303 OBP, .373 SLG, 0 HR, 16 RBI
2013 projection: 86 games, .273 BA, .335 OBP, .370 SLG, 2 HR, 24 RBI

Yes, it's official, Ryan Sweeney will be back in Boston for the 2013 season. Though technically signed to a minor league deal, Sweeney has been invited to spring training, and with Ryan Kalish's impending surgery, you have to assume that Sweeney will be on the Opening Day Roster.

Sweeney made an early departure last year after he broke his hand punching a door in the in the clubhouse out of frustration.  The only possible positive outcome of such a childish action is that it easily got buried in the overwhelming amount of terrible news surrounding last season's Red Sox.

Sweeney apologized at the time for his display of temper and its repercussions, and is even making jokes about it on his Twitter:

He seems happy for the opportunity, and is, in his own words "exited to be back with Boston," which is especially impressive given how the season ended here in 2012.  I'm still super bummed about Kalish's seemingly continuous health problems, but Sweeney has some comparable numbers (although we admittedly lose some power potential). 

Injuries abound

Ryan Kalish can't catch a break. I wrote his projections post a week ago today, under the assumption that he would be healthy and ready for spring training and Opening Day - and it's become clear that's not the case.

Kalish has struggled with myriad injuries in his short career (he's just 24), and had surgery last offseason in an attempt to fix his torn labrum, and he's had other surgeries, as well. Everyone had been optimistic that the light was on at the end of the tunnel, that Kalish would finally be healthy enough to fulfill his potential. Alas, this is not the case, and he will be out "for the foreseeable future" because of impending surgery on his right shoulder.

If you should need some schadenfreude to brighten your day after hearing that, I definitely have some news for you.  The Yankees should be without Alex Rodriguez until at least after the All Star break, and quite possibly for the whole season.

Of course, A-Rod is 37, and he's been injury-prone for a number of years, so this isn't surprising. And yes, the Yankees have proven that they can win without the power-hitting Rodriguez, but I take a certain amount of satisfaction in knowing that they'll be paying him at least $28 million dollars to play a maximum of about two months.

I would never, ever wish injury on anyone - including A-Rod, who is very close to the top of my most disliked player list - but it is nice to remember that the Red Sox aren't the only team dealing with serious injuries before the season is even underway.

2013 Bill James Projections - Ryan Kalish

2012: 36 games, .229 BA, .272 OBP, .260 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2013 projection: 129 games, .252 BA, .320 OBP, 384 SLG, 10 HR, 48 RBI

Ryan Kalish has been almost ready for the bigs for what seems like half my life. He came up for fifty-three games back in 2010, then injuries kept him off the field for most of 2011. He had 103 plate appearances last season, and didn't quite live up to the predictions for his potential.

On the Red Sox official depth chart, Kalish is second to Shane Victorino in right field, and third to Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava in left. Jacoby Ellsbury is all alone on the chart in center, but Kalish has played that position in the past, and is perfectly capable of giving him a day off, or taking over if (heaven forbid) Ells goes down with a injury.

I have a soft spot for every prospect that comes up through the system, and we've been waiting for Kalish for years now. He certainly has the potential and the tools to not only meet Bill James' projections, but to exceed them: we just have to wait and see what kind of playing time he'll get.

Andrew Bailey to the Sox

 According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox have traded for Oakland A's closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.  Josh Reddick will be shipping out to Oakland, and  Class-A first baseman Miles Head and Class-A pitcher Raul Alcantara will be headed to A's minor league affiliate.

I know some of you grew pretty fond of Reddick last season, since he spent more than half the season with the big club, but his shoes are sure to be filled by someone capable.  While Rookie Reddick was serviceable, batting .280 with seven home runs and 28 RBIs in 87 games, he played just 56 of those games in right field.  According to the Globe's Pete Abraham, the Sox were downright deplorable in right field last season:

Red Sox right fielders hit .233/.299/.353 last season with 14 homers and 58 RBIs. Going by OPS, only Seattle was worse in the American League.

It's unlikely that Sweeney would end up being the full-time right fielder, as he's capable of playing all three outfield positions, and he seems to be more of a utility/fourth outfielder type, batting .265 with 25 RBIs and just one home run last season in 108 games.  We'll probably be seeing a lot of Ryan Kalish, who has hopefully fully recovered from all of his ailments.  Obviously, Kalish won't just be handed the job - there will be some competition in Spring Training.

But we all know that the gem of this deal is 27-year-old Andrew Bailey.  Since the departure of Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox Nation has been understandably worried about who is going to be closing games, especially because former heir-apparent Daniel Bard has expressed interest in starting.  Bailey should be a serviceable replacement, as he has 75 saves in his three-year career, and though his ERA went up considerably last year (1.47 to 3.24), he had nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks.

It will be interesting to see how Bailey fares in the AL East, especially after spending his career in the somewhat cushier AL West (though I'm sure he's happy he doesn't have to face the Angels and Albert Pujols 18 times a season).  All in all, this is a solid move for new GM Ben Cherington - maybe it will even get Red Sox Nation off his back.

Memorable Moments of 2010: Part 2

Ryan Kalish's arrival was one of many unexpected highlights of the 2010 season. The outfielder has been one of the most highly touted prospects in the Red Sox system for a few years now, and the folks over at Sox Prospects currently lists him at #1 (a no-brainer after Casey Kelly got shipped off to San Diego). Apparently, there is very little downside to Kalish, as Sox Prospects absolutely RAVES about him:

"Excellent athlete with a solid build, good bat speed, and lots of quickness. Plays the game at full tilt. The organization has worked with Kalish on his plate patience, and over time he has come to demonstrate an excellent approach at the plate. Average to above-average present power, has potential to add more. Makes solid contact and hits to all fields. Above-average speed. Steals a lot of bases due to his quick acceleration and high intelligence on the basepaths. In the field, he has a reliable glove, excellent range, an average arm, and average accuracy. Tough competitor with a mature demeanor. Kalish tends to be a very popular player with coaches, teammates, and fans."

Bill James sees a lot of promise in the 22-year-old, projecting a line of .271 BA, .791 OPS, 43 SB, and 20 HR... for 2011... in Boston. I'm not sure where James sees all of this playing time coming from, unless the Sox employee can sense a Jacoby Ellsbury trade in the works. [For comparison's sake, Kalish boasted a .252 BA, .710 OPS, 10 SB and 4 HR in 53 games last season with the big club.]

Kalish's most memorable moment last season came at Tampa Bay on August 28th, when he managed to make the spectalular grab and rob BJ Upton of extra bases, and it earned him ESPN SportsCenter's Top Play honors.

Hopefully, we see a lot more of Kalish (though he'll likely start the year at Pawtucket) - and not just because of his uncanny resemblance to Channing Tatum.

Making it interesting?

Alright, things look pretty bad. By losing two out of three to the Rays (and heartbreakers, at that), the Red Sox fall to 6.5 games out of first place and the Wild Card - seven games out in the loss column.

So does this mean it's over? Not necessarily, but barring a spectacular collapse by one or both of the teams they're chasing, it's now going to be damn near impossible. Unfortunately, we're behind the wrong New York team when it comes to hoping for a collapse, as the Yankees' Queens neighbors are particularly practiced at late-season floundering theatrics.

Where are the moribund Mets when you need them?

Many of you might ask: So what's the point in watching? Well, first of all, if these Red Sox get their act together and somehow scrape a spot in the postseason, you'll want to say that you're one of those fans who kept the faith.

Even if they don't, and even if this series turns out to be the straw that finally broke the camel's back, there's a lot of good baseball left. This is a good team, and they play exciting baseball most of the time. Sure, the last two nights have ended badly for us, but there was a lot of edge-of-your-seat performances before the final score made us all collectively bang our heads against that proverbial wall.

Take Saturday's game: we had a gem from Buchholz, an impressive catch from Drew (while the wisdom of catching that ball is open to question, the degree of difficulty involved in actually getting to it through those awful bullpens is not), and a SportsCenter Top Play from none other than the young Ryan Kalish.


During the series we've seen a lot of skill from guys most of us had never heard of until the 2010 Parade of Carnage got underway: a couple of assists by Darnell McDonald, some key hits by Daniel Nava, and an RBI from Yamaico Navarro. I mean, we've all heard about Ryan Kalish, but you'd have to be SUPER tuned in to even have known what position these other guys played in the Sox minor league system, let alone think they could make an meaningful contribution.

So maybe the tail end of 2010 will turn out to be an audition for 2011, and it's not the end of the world. Most teams would have packed it in long ago: where would the Rays be with season-ending injuries to Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist? If BJ Upton played just 20 games? If Matt Garza was doing his best 2006 Matt Clement impression and David Price missed two months?

Likewise, where would New York be without Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Curtis Granderson for a sizable chunk of the season? What if you subtracted CC Sabathia from that rotation? Phil Hughes?

I know this is all hypothetical, but the point is that this team is nothing to scoff at. The fact that we can even boast the seventh-best record in baseball at this point in the season is borderline absurd - factor in the toughest division in the game and you're really talking crazy.

I hate to quote a Yankee to sum up a post about the tenacity of the 2010 Red Sox, but as Yogi Berra famously said: "It's not over til it's over."

It's not over yet, Red Sox Nation. I don't know about you, but the one thing I've learned this season is to never count this team out.

Channing Tatum: Sox Prospect...?

Is it just me, or is the resemblance between Channing Tatum (left) and Sox prospect Ryan Kalish (right) uncanny? (Somehow, this is the largest and best quality photo I could find of Kalish, so if any of you have a better one, send it my way!)

Down on the Farm

With all of the free-agent signings this winter, it's easy to forget Theo's comments early this offseason, warning of a possible "bridge year." When the Sox GM first dropped the b-word, fans panicked, thinking we would be in for a lackluster year while biding our time for the prospects to pan out. Clearly, that's not the case, but we are in between waves of big-league ready prospects.

The next year or so probably won't see any impact players coming from the farm system - at least, there won't be can't miss guys like Pedroia ('07), or Ellsbury ('08). However, in 2011 and beyond, brace yourself to see a flurry of talent coming up.

We got a sneak peak at Josh Reddick this season, as he had 63 plate appearances for the big club in the second half. The young outfielder hit just .169... but he did clobber two home runs. In 63 games in Portland (AA), Reddick hit .277 with an OPS of .871, but when he made the jump to AAA Pawtucket, those numbers fell to .127 and .373. There have been some theorizing that Reddick's pitch recognition skills just weren't at AAA or major league caliber yet... but that's certainly something that will improve with time. Fun fact: William Joshua Reddick is his given name, and though he throws right-handed, he's a lefty at the plate.

It's official: Casey Kelly is going to be a pitcher. At first, the big righty (6'3") said he wanted to play shortstop, and for the last two seasons in the minors has been pitching to his innings limit and subsequently playing at shortstop. Kelly's numbers as a pitcher are considerably more impressive than those as a batter, as he boasts a career minor-league ERA of 2.08, and a batting average of just .219. Fun fact: Kelly has an extensive baseball genealogy - uncle Mike Kelly and father Pat Kelly both played in the majors, while his brother Chris is currently in the Rays' system. [Bonus fun fact: I'm calling dibs on him. Right now. He's Off the Monster's Dustin of the future.]

Ryan Westmoreland is one of the most impressive young men in the Red Sox system, and that's really saying something. He was an all-star in high school, both on the field and in the classroom, passing on a full scholarship to Vanderbilt to sign with the Sox. He missed all of last season after breaking his collarbone running into an outfield wall, but performed admirably in 2009. Playing mostly as a DH for Single-A Lowell, Westmoreland hit .296 with an .885 OPS. Fun fact: Westmoreland is the first player profiled on Off the Monster who is younger than I (three months, 9 days younger, to be exact, with a birthday of April 27, 1990).

Ryan Kalish is the Golden Boy of the future - heck, he's even an outfielder. However, even if you look beyond the chiseled face (please, look beyond the chiseled face) Kalish is one to watch. Playing most of 2009 in Portland, Kalish hit .271 with 13 home runs and 56 RBIs in 103 games, and according to soxprospects.com he has the potential to be a lead-off guy with some pop. Fun fact: he played center field as a kid, but is open to all outfield positions: "I want to get to the big leagues so it doesn’t really matter where I am at. I’d play first base as long as I make it."

In a position the Red Sox desperately want to fill, Luis Exposito is very promising. He has a career minor-league batting average of .280, with an OPS of .785, and has the potential to be an everyday catcher with good power. One criticism Exposito gets is that his game-calling needs some work - Jason Varitek, your skills are needed here! He has a good arm, and is adequate at throwing out base stealers, something Sox backstops have been struggling mightily with lately. Fun fact: Exposito speaks both Spanish and English, and, by all accounts, has matured into a very positive clubhouse influence.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that the signing of International Free-Agent Jose Iglesias had some bearing on Kelly's final decision to embrace the pitcher's mound. Iglesias is highly touted as an excellent defensive shortstop, and even at the young age of 20, scouts are projecting potential Gold Gloves in his future. His bat is average at best, but an average bat and sparkling defense at shortstop would be a major boon for the Sox, who have been struggling to fill the hole since 2004. Fun fact: Wikipedia lists two different birthdays for Iglesias (January 5 and May 1, 1990), and his age has to be questioned a bit, given the fact that he's a Cuban defector. Still, it's not as if he's secretly 35, but an extra year or two wouldn't be unheard of.

On a totally girly and unrelated note, these boys aren't half bad-looking... I don't know about you guys, but I can't wait to get my butt over to Portland this summer to catch some of these guys in action for less than $10. Hopefully I'll see some of you there!

[Thanks to soxprospects.com and baseball-reference.com for stats and insight!]