No, not THAT Chris Carpenter...

You can follow Carpenter on Twitter: @ccarp37

So we finally know who we'll be getting in exchange for letting Theo head out to Chicago... Chris Carpenter, Cubs pitcher. Our new Chris Carpenter even has the same middle name (John) as the other Chris Carpenter, but ours is ten years younger.

Hopefully he can live up to the other Chris Carpenter in time - he seems to have had a promising start. Just twenty-six years old, Carpenter broke into the bigs at the end of last season, and tossed 9.2 innings over ten games, recording a 2.79 ERA, 7 walks, and 8 strikeouts.

Unsurprisingly, he does not have an entry in the 2012 Bill James Handbook, and he's yet another righthanded option for the bullpen.

The Red Sox and Cubs will each owe the other a player to be named later as part of the compensation deal.

Being a Red Sox fan is WORTH the heartache

We didn't deserve to make it.  As angry, depressed, disappointed, and bitter as I am right now (and it's toned down a lot since last night), I can see that.  The Red Sox mailed it in this September, and last night's debacle was nothing more than a microcosm of the last month.

They say you don't win pennants in April.  That might be true, but if nothing else, this season has taught us that you sure as hell can LOSE them in April.  If we didn't get swept by Cleveland (Cleveland!) the second series of 2011, we squeak into the playoffs last night - whether we could have done a damn thing one we were in? That's another story.

However, some of the reactionary stuff I was seeing on Twitter and Facebook last night was appalling, and - in many cases - downright foolish:

Let's start off with a tweet where the poster misspelled the closer's name, exposed his own misogyny, and blamed a player with a serious injury. I'm sorry, bro, but I know you personally, and there is no goddamned way you were playing through injuries like Salty's and Youk's. Despite the fact that Lackey has thus far been a HUGE disappointment for the money, he DID manage to win 12 games, and the suggestion to sign Prince Fielder is hardly going to help out our pitching.

Let's move on:

Gold. "Sell the team." To whom, I wonder? Are you going to buy it?  And it's not really like the owners can carry much of the blame here. Sure, if they had denied the money to sign a really important and obvious missing piece, but we all know that John Henry and Co. essentially have an open-wallet policy with Theo.  Perhaps that's where the blame should go?  But, don't forget we were all lauding Theo just eight months ago, and Sports Illustrated literally JUST ran a story extolling the virtues of his managerial technique (you might have to subscribe to SI to see it - sorry).

So this brings me to the most popular sentiment of the night:

You have got to be joking. Luckily, there sees to be just as many people on the interwebz who are violently disagreeing, and defending Tito.  I'm sure this conversation is of no surprise to Francona, after all, the double-edged sword of being a manager is that if the team wins, they were really talented, but if they lose, it's the manager's fault.  Could Tito have done more to light a fire underneath his team? Maybe. We will never know what he was doing in the clubhouse.  It is worth remembering that every single Red Sox is a grown-ass man, and therefore responsible for his own performance - Tito can only enhance.

And, to wrap up the evening, here's a status update that literally made me feel sick to my stomach:

Yes, that happened on my newsfeed last night. And FIVE PEOPLE "Liked" it.  Listen, I get the frustration, the thoughts that the team just doesn't work, that maybe starting over would be better - that it couldn't be worse. But these men are people. Just like you and me. They have families and lives outside of baseball. I don't care how much of a superfan you are, wishing for a plane crash just makes you a spectacularly shitty human being.

If anything, I hope this ending, this season, leaves us wiser as fans.  You don't win seasons in the offseason.  The playoffs are a special event, not a perennial birthright.  Sometimes you're on the losing end of epic chokefests.  All of these things kind of suck, and for fans like me, who didn't live through much of the storied franchise heartache (1999 and 2003, but before that was before my time), this is a stark reminder that we as Red Sox fans have lived a charmed existence.

But for me, it's worth it. I have seen two World Series Championships come to my team in my lifetime, and I believe I'll live to see many more.  Last night was crushing, painful, tear-inducing, because baseball and the Red Sox are my life.  But the feeling I got when I saw them win it in Colorado in 2007 and St. Louis in 2004 outweighs that heartache by an indescribable amount.  Being a dedicated (some might say obsessive) fan can fucking HURT sometimes - but when it feels good, it feels SO GOOD, SO GOOD, SO GOOD!

The Red Sox are not cheap.

Remember this guy? Proof.

The Marlins are cheap. The Rays are cheap. The Pirates are downright Scrooge-like. If I hear one more Red Sox fan bemoaning the "fact" that the Sox front office is "too cheap" to sign Adrian Gonzalez, I'm going to scream in frustration.

The problem in these talks is not money. It's never money, unless the Yankees are involved, because we all know Midas himself couldn't outbid the Junior Steinbrenners. No, the Red Sox are not afraid to overpay in dollars for talent (for proof, look no further than the draft bonuses that they've given out in recent years), but they are afraid of overpaying in terms of years.

This makes sense. Think back to when the Sox signed Manny Ramirez, way back in December of 2000. The slugging outfielder was given a guaranteed eight years, with two team options for 2009 and 2010, with a total value of $160 million, plus bonuses for the usual things (MVP, ASG, etc.). I think you know where this is going, but the front office had soured on Manny by 2006, and even the fans were tired of his act by 2008. He was shipped off to Mannywood in LA, the Sox got Jason Bay, and the rest is history.

The moral of the story is, of course, that you can never anticipate what a player will look like in three years, let alone eight. I would never venture to guess that Adrian Gonzalez has the kind of ego and make up issues that Ramirez does, but the point stands: the Red Sox are cautious in giving out long contracts, because they've been down that road before, and it doesn't end well.

I know that AGon is crazily consistent (I posted about it yesterday, in fact), but you never know when he'll break a few ribs in a freak accident a la Jeremy Hermida and Jacoby Ellsbury, or foul a ball off his foot like Pedey, and he might never be the same.

I can totally support the front office standing firm on this issue, because they value roster flexibility, and handing out crazy-long deals isn't conducive to that kind of strategy.

All that said, SI's Jon Heyman is reporting that a deal DID get done, and the press conference will be tomorrow. Hopefully, the terms make sense for both sides.

Adrian Gonzalez to Boston

As I'm sure you've all heard by now, Adrian Gonzalez is headed to the Red Sox. The slugging first baseman will cost the Sox three of their most highly touted prospects, Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Rey Fuentes, but you have to give up value to get value in return.

Also, it's possible that one or all of the minor leaguers going to San Diego will never reach their potential, and the Red Sox are getting about as close as you can to a sure thing in baseball. Gonzalez was in Boston today getting a physical (he had surgery in October after playing through some pain in the later parts of the 2010 season), and the deal will be official as soon as the Red Sox and agent John Boggs can work on a contract extension.

Fun Fact: A-Gon played in Portland for the Double-A Seadogs when they were a Marlins farm team.

Adrian Gonzalez is a premier player entering into the prime of his career. The former Padre is twenty-eight years old, and in his seven MLB seasons (2 partial, 5 total), his numbers look like this: .284 BA, .368 OBP, 168 home runs, .511 SLG, and 525 RBI.

Bill James projects 2011 to be a typically great year for Gonzalez: 161 games played, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 home runs, and 102 RBIs. It's also important to keep in mind that James calculated these predictions under the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing 81 games in the cavernous Petco Park, and that his numbers will most likely improve in the friendly confines of Fenway.

Current members of the Red Sox roster are excited to have Gonzalez join them. Daniel Bard, after being reassured that the deal did not include him, was enthusiastic, and Dustin Pedroia had nothing but praise for the All-Star: "I'm excited to play alongside him. It's going to be fun. When you hear his name for three years, something might happen. It's awesome to happen now. We picked up a player who's one of the best hitters in the game, so everyone's excited. We've got an All-Star. He's outstanding. We're excited and I think everyone's pumped to get to spring training and start everything."

Tim Wakefield, the grizzled veteran, acknowleged the long-term nature of the deal, noting that after a few years of discussion between the Padres and Sox, the trade has "finally some to fruition. It's a great addition to our club. Not only are we getting a quality player but we're also getting a quality guy." I don't know about you, but I trust Wake's opinion when it comes to class acts.

Obviously, this means that the Red Sox will not be bringing back the other Adrian, Mr. Beltre, despite his amazing 2010 performance for Boston at the hot corner. However, this does mean that the Red Sox will be awarded compensation picks for Beltre, Victor Martinez, and Felipe Lopez, meaning that they'll have five total picks in the first round and the sandwich round between the first and second rounds. This is nothing to sneeze at, especially since Theo has been very successful with drafting, and the 2011 draft class is projected to be very deep.

All in all, this is a fantastic move. I couldn't be happier, and I was itching all day to blog about it, and to get your reactions. Do you think this makes up for letting Victor Martinez walk? What kind of extension do you think Gonzalez will see? Do you expect the Sox to go after Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford as well?


[All quotes from this post are from Boston.com's Extra Bases blog; credit to Peter Abraham and the Globe staff]

Happy Thanksgiving, Red Sox Nation!

All too often this blog has become a place for rants and complaints: mostly because none of my friends or family really care about the Red Sox (at least, not like I do), so this is a somewhat healthy way to vent my frustrations. However, in spirit of today's holiday, I thought I would post a list of Red Sox-related things for which I am thankful:

• 2004 and 2007: Seven years ago, we were coming off the biggest heartbreak since 1986. We still claimed lovable loser status, and there were people who swore that the Cubs curse would break before ours. Then, seven years ago today, our own Theo Epstein made a trek to Curt Schilling's Arizona home for Thanksgiving, and a deal was eventually done. The rest, as they say, is history.
• An 89-win season: Fully two-thirds of MLB teams finished behind Boston this season, and this despite the 2010 Parade of Carnage that saw SIX Opening Day starters spend an extended period on the disabled list, not to mention the grab bag of injuries to bench players and pitchers beyond Opening Day starter Josh Beckett.
• The chance to cheer for prospects: The Red Sox have had a fantastic farm system, and despite Theo's ill-fated "bridge year" comment of yesteryear, we got to see some fantastic things this season. If I had proclaimed, this time last year, that we would soon be cheering on Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, Ryan Kalish, Felix Doubront, and Josh Reddick on a regular basis, you all would have had me committed. The kids, as they say, are all right, and they certainly proved themselves this season.
• My proximity to Boston: Sure, I'm three hours away at home, and two when I'm at school, but the fact is that I can drive there any time I wish (so long as there's not a blizzard or something). There are fans all over the country, and all over the world, who have never set foot in Fenway Park, have never been to the the East Coast of the US, and so are constant minorities in their baseball-rooting interest. I'm thankful that there are thousands of Fenway Faithful all around me, that Red Sox hats abound (more in NH than CT), and that people around here are generally so passionate.
• Dustin Pedroia: You had to know this was coming. However, it's not just my favorite player for whom I am thankful, but all of his home-grown teammates, especially those who are still under Red Sox control, pre-arbitration, and those who took wallet-friendly deals to stay with the Sox. Players like Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, John Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowrie (remember him!?), and yes, even Jacoby Ellsbury.
• The wallet of John Henry, et al: Yes, yes, I know all of RSN is claiming that Henry's acquisition of the Liverpool Football Club is the reason that VMart is now a Tiger, but I'm going to go on record as skeptical of that theory. The fact is, Henry is fabulously wealthy, and he bankrolled the second-highest payroll in MLB last year. I know it's difficult to keep perspective on how lucky the Sox are financially when the Yankees are outspending King Midas 200 miles to the south, but please try to remember: we are very, VERY lucky to have an owner who is willing to spend when his GM thinks it's appropriate.
• Theo Epstein: Speaking of the GM, we happen to have one of the best. I know people's opinions are tainted right now because of the Victor Martinez debacle, but the fact is that Theo always knows what he's doing (except, apparently, with shortstops). Do you recall the offseason a few years back (I believe this was pre-Martinez, but perhaps not) when all of RSN was howling at Mr. Epstein to go out and get a new young backstop? Jarrod Saltalamacchia was near the top of the wish list, and Theo managed to acquire him for peanuts. Theo has a plan. Chill.
• You! Yes, dear reader, I am thankful for you. When I started this blog nearly two years ago, I never expected to get more than a few reads, if I got any at all. Really, this was going to function more like a journal for me to get out my Sox thoughts, since no one in my life particularly cared to discuss baseball 24/7. The audience I have now blows me away, and I'm extremely thankful to be able to write for such a passionate group of fans.

Did I forget anything? Do you disagree? Feel free to add your imput in the comments section, and have a very happy Thanksgiving! [And to my non-American readers, have a happy Thursday!]

Victor Martinez to the Tigers

The first major event of the Red Sox offseason is imminent, and it's not the news any of us were hoping for. No, Theo didn't manage to trade for Adrian Gonzalez or Elvis Andrus, or perform a miracle and sign Cliff Lee (at least, not yet). Sadly, the first big-name signing this offseason involves the Detroit Tigers winning the services of former Sox catcher Victor Martinez.

According to MLB.com, the Tigers offered VMart four years and $50 million, and that was enough. We know that Martinez was rather miffed that the Sox didn't extend him before the 2010 season, a la Josh Beckett, or even during the season, despite Theo's well-documented dislike of carrying on contract discussions in-season.

At first glance, this looks bad. Catastrophic, even, since the Red Sox are left with the mostly-untried Jarrod Saltalamacchia and (possibly) the ever-aging Jason Varitek. However, there are reasons for the choice to not retain Martinez - and trust me, this was a CHOICE on Theo's part.

The Red Sox aren't sure how long Victor can continue to be an effective backstop, and his defense behind the plate has never been spectacular, despite some strides in that area in 2010. For a catcher, VMart is extremely effective with the bat, but once he has to make the inevitable transition to first base (or DH), his numbers will be league-average at best. The Red Sox are currently overpaying an aging designated hitter, and it's not a position that they like to be in.

According to boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox offered Martinez two separate contracts: "three years and $36 million or four years and $42 million," but neither seemed to be enough for the soon-to-be 32-year-old, as he took Detroit's offer instead.

Before everyone storms Fenway Park's front office with their torches and pitchforks, please take a second to understand that Theo Epstein always has reasons for signing the players he does, and letting others walk - and usually, the reasons are good (excepting at the shortstop position). With Martinez's presumptive salary off the books, the Red Sox have a great deal of wiggle room for their 2011 payroll. They will also doubtless offer Victor arbitration, and thus receive two draft picks for him, as he is a Type A free agent.

This could be the non-deal that allows the Sox to go out and sign a Carl Crawford, or a Jayson Werth, and which could potentially give them the freedom to part with some prospects (and someone like Jacoby Ellsbury) for Adrian Gonzalez.

It's important to remember how things have panned out in recent years when Theo has allowed a Red Sox free agent to walk. Jason Bay came off a great season for the Sox and had a terrible, injury-plagued season for the Mets (though he would have fit in with the walking wounded at Fenway). Pedro Martinez was a shell of his former self by the middle of his deal, post-Sox. Nomar Garciaparra, anyone? (Okay, so that was a trade, but he was never the same.)

I trust Theo. Almost unconditionally. In fact, I might believe in him more than I do my friends and family (probably a problem in my personal relationships). I believe he has a plan, that he will leave no stone unturned, and that ultimately, he'll put a great team on the field in 2011. All they have to do is stay healthy...

Lefty for lefty: Andrew Miller to the Sox

Former Tigers and Marlins LHP Andrew Miller.

As some of you might have heard, the Red Sox recently (Friday) finalized a deal with the Marlins that will send left reliever Dustin Richardson to the Marlins for lefty Andrew Miller. On the surface, the two are pretty similar: both were draft picks out of college in 2006, Richardson is 6'6", 220 lbs, while Miller is 6'7", 210 lbs, and both hail from the south (Kansas and Florida, respectively).

However, this is where the similarities end. Richardson was brought along very cautiously by the Sox, as is their general pattern with pitching; he didn't make his big-league debut until September 28, 2009 against Toronto (1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 SO, 0 BB, 0 ER).

Successful debut? Yessir.

On the other hand, Miller was pitching for the big-league Tigers just twenty-two days after he signed with the club, and sixty-four days after his last game as a collegiate pitcher, debuting for the big club on August 30, 2006. The then 21-year-old pitched a scoreless eighth inning - at Yankee Stadium, no less - and I'm sure several Tigers execs patted themselves on the backs for rushing him to the bigs.

Unfortunately, Miller's success would be rather tempered after that, and he was traded to the Marlins in the winter of 2007, part of the package of players that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit.

Andrew Miller has literally never spent an entire season in the minor leagues - not even a shortened Low-A type season. His career numbers look like this: 15-26, 5.84 ERA, 294.1 IP. Dustin Richardson, on the other hand, spent all of 2006-08 in the minors, and most of 2009, and his numbers look like this: 0-0, 3.31 ERA, 16.1 IP. Miller's WAR stands at -3.8 for his career, and Richardson's is 0.3.

So at first glance, it looks like the Red Sox are getting a raw deal here. However, you all know that I trust Theo Epstein almost unconditionally, and you don't have to look all that deep to see Miller's appeal. Relief pitching is notoriously volatile, and Richardson is a young reliever coming off a generally consistent year, and so Theo is selling high, something he loves to do.

Miller is a former sixth pick overall, and he's also the former teammate of another Sox relief pitcher: fellow-2006-first-rounder Daniel Bard. Bard fell to 28th overall, where the Sox scooped him up, and kept him in the minors for three years before he made his debut in May of 2009. Bard, of course, has never looked back.

Daniel Bard (above) and Miller were light-out teammates at UNC.

Despite all of Miller's well-documented struggles, Bard still thinks he's a great pitcher, and that perhaps the Marlins tried to do just a little too much tinkering with his delivery: “The stuff was too good. The projectability with his body was there. To me, it still is. All the tools are still there. Nothing has changed. I’m sure he had some stumbles along the way he would like to get rid of, but he’s still only 25-years-old and on the cusp of being a really good major league pitcher.”

Of course, the Red Sox have some very good pitching coaches in the organization, even without the now-departed John Farrell, and I'm sure Theo has something in mind to get the still-young lefty back on track. The praise of Daniel Bard should not be taken lightly: by now, he's figured out what it takes to be an affective big-league pitcher, regarding actual skills and mental toughness, and if he thinks Andrew Miller has it, I'm inclined to trust him.




[Quote in this post from WEEI.]

Book review: Theology

I won't be heading to Fenway Park this evening after all. My roommate broke her ankle yesterday due to a rugby accident, and so we will not be seeing Daisuke Matsuzaka nibble around the strikezone and get pulled before the sixth inning. Sad.

Instead, we gave the tickets to her cousin for the girl's birthday - here's hoping she gets to see a win!

Now, since I have nothing to say about the Red Sox today that can't be summed up with "Dear God, why!?", I've decided to start a series of posts reviewing the baseball books I so avidly devour, both during the summer, and over the offseason (which is looming closer by the day). Full disclosure: I was inspired in this endeavor by this article on the Boston Globe's website. It was less than I expected, presenting a list instead of the synopses the texts deserved.

So without further ado, hopefully the first in a series of reviews, a look at John Frascella's Theology: How a Boy Wonder Led the Red Sox to the Promised Land.


I have to say, I was sadly disappointed in the book. I know Theo Epstein is a notoriously private person, but I was hoping for more insight then I could get from a Wikipedia page.

There were literally no quotations or insights that I hadn't already read in the Boston Globe or Herald, and the book read more like a high schooler's rendition of a biography than a professional's. There were several typographical errors in my copy, which any editor should have caught, and it just made the whole thing seem even more like the project of a fan rather than an actual book.

I'm sorry to say I would not recommend this book to anyone but the most casual of fans; if you're anything close to die hard (as I assume my readers are), you already know that Theo has a small son, that he and Larry Lucchino aren't exactly bosom buddies, and the gorilla suit angle has been beaten to death.


Read the Wikipedia page instead: it's better written, and it's free.

The 2010 Parade of Carnage

I wasn't happy after last night's joke of a game. However, neither did I feel the overpowering urge to scream and storm and throw things that a late-season loss to a divisional rival usually brings. When the last out was made, all I felt was a bitter sort of resignation - for all intents and purposes, this team was down and out long ago, and somehow they clung to hope far longer than they had any right to under the circumstances.

The Boston Red Sox are currently nine games behind the Yankees for the AL East title, and 7.5 behind the Rays in the Wild Card race. There are just 23 games left in the 2010 season, and 11 of those are against legitimate playoff contenders... Once, the Red Sox would have counted themselves among such fighters, but no longer. The 2010 Parade of Carnage dashed our collective playoff hopes long before we were ready to admit defeat. (And to be honest, I won't be ready to throw in the towel until the math says I have no choice.)

I could go through and list all of the injuries, player by player, but it's been done. Instead, I will SHOW how the injuries piled up, through screengrabs from some reputable Red Sox websites:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

On July 11th, the Sox had a whopping eleven players on the disabled list (plus Junichi Tazawa, who was hurt in Spring Training). Since then, one has been traded (MDC, to the Rockies), one released (Jeremy Hermida), two are gone for the season (Pedroia and Ellsbury), six are back on the roster and producing some semblance of good baseball, and one (Josh Beckett) is stinking up the joint, despite his apparent "health."

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

On August 5th, we recieved word that Boston's most consistant hitter would be out for the season after a freak accident in the batter's box that would require him to undergo thumb surgery. At the time, few realized what a crushing blow this was, as several players were supposed to be on their way back, but Youk's absence has hurt us both on the scoreboard and in the field.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Within twenty minutes on August 18th, we were informed that two-thirds of our starting outfield would be AWOL until next Spring. Cameron's loss was somewhat glossed over because his stats left a lot to be desired this season, but keep in mind he was battling a severe sports hernia for much of the campaign, and never really got into a groove. Ellsbury, of course, is the type of dynamic player who really might have made a difference in some of this season's close games.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Then the most crushing blow of all: despite having returned for two games, Dustin Pedroia's foot was not healing, and so he would be lost for 2010. Besides being an excellent player, Pedey is the heart and soul of that clubhouse - the Sox couldn't be out of it until he SAID they were out of it... and Pedey doesn't admit defeat.

And so by today, the Sox DL looks like this:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

Fewer players on the list, but none of them are walking through that door. Of the Opening Day Starters, four of nine are on that list. We've lost three Gold Glovers and the reigning stolen base champ; three All-Stars, and three former World Series winners. The worth of these four players absolutely cannot be overestimated.

If you look over the total missing players for the year, things get even more bleak: of the nine players on the field for the first pitch of 2010, six have spent at least 15 days on the disabled list. Shockingly, the only outfielder to stay healthy was JD Drew. Yes, JD Drew was the Boston outfield's version of Iron Man.

The ridiculous spate of injuries made writing the lineup card a daily adventure for Terry Francona...

(via baseball-reference.com; click to enlarge)

This is ridiculous. The Sox couldn't even be healthy enough to have seven games with the same lineup. SEVEN!

This team put up a hell of a fight - guys most of us had never heard of this time last year made real contributions, but in the end it doesn't seem to be enough. And for those of you ripping Theo for not getting reinforcements before the trade deadline, where was he supposed to get players of such pedigree? And most of them were supposed to come back; if they had in fact been healthy, where do you put the new additions?

No, you can't blame Theo, or Tito, or even the players. You can blame sheer dumb luck, and playing in a division with two of the best teams in baseball (and indisputably the one richest). Some of you are too young to remember that the Sox were not always perennial contenders (I'm on the cusp of that one), so let me remind you of the time-tested phrase of fanbases past: "Wait til next year."

The New Moneyball

"The new Moneyball player looks a lot like Boston's new centerfielder: fast, athletic, a slick fielder who even at age 37 and for $8 million a year is a bargain. 'Mike Cameron played on two of the 10 best defensive teams of all time [the 2001 Marlins and the 1999 Reds],' says [Tony] Blengino. 'Every team he's played for has gotten better. Every team he's left collapsed when he left. No, Mike Cameron's not a Hall of Famer. But he's clearly a winning baseball player.'" -p. 67, Sports Illustrated (March 1, 2010)


Hello skeptics! I know you're out there: you Red Sox fans who scoff at Theo's newfound love for run prevention and predict a downfall of epic proportions. I disagree with you. The players disagree with you. The front office (obviously) disagrees with you. But I know that won't sway you, so maybe this will: Sports Illustrated recently ran a six page article [in the Olympic issue, no less!] on the "new Moneyball," which, in case you were wondering, is defense and run prevention.

I'm guessing there's a lot of overlap in the "doubt Theo" and "Moneyball is all about OBP and Billy Beane is a failure" demographics, so before I start, I'm going to make some clarifications. Moneyball was not about OBP, but rather the exploitation of undervalued commodities within baseball. In the early days of the last decade, OBP was all but ignored, and so those who paid attention to it (Hey there, Billy Beane) reaped the benefits. Now, of course, on base percentage is quoted just as often as the old standby, the batting average, and it's displayed on scoreboards and television screens across the country. OBP is no longer undervalued by the market, and so teams looking for an edge no longer prioritize it as the Holy Grail of statistics.

According to SI's Albert Chen, defense is the new byword, and the movement is being spearheaded by the Seattle Mariners, who, despite scoring fewer runs than anyone in the American League, won 85 games last year, overcoming a pitching staff that essentially boasted Felix Hernandez and no one else. These same Mariners went 4-2 against your very own Boston Red Sox, on the back of a defense and run prevention strategy.


Theo's not stupid. He saw what we all saw: a stacked lineup (and bottomless pockets) to the south, and a team out west with a small payroll but good results. He put two and two together, added Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro, and as a result, Sox fans are about to be treated to a parade of defensive gems from April to [hopefully] sometime in October. This offense will be just fine, and the defense promises to be one of the best New England has seen. Let's all just take a deep breath and relax... and if you really feel the need to worry about something, I suggest you fret over the state of Beltre's balls.

10 for '10 - Ringing in the New Year!

Most people come up with resolutions for New Years... and inevitably, they get forgotten by Valentines Day. This year, Off the Monster is writing a list of New Years wishes - which are, of course, much better than resolutions in that they require absolutely no commitment on my part.

10. Tim Wakefield will maintain his health for the season, and will reach the Red Sox win record by the end of 2011. Is there a better guy in the organization than Wake? You all know my thoughts on the matter, so I'll spare you, but I think we can all agree that he deserves some major recognition for his contributions to the Red Sox over the years. Another franchise record would be wonderful.


9. Josh Beckett signs an extension that makes sense for both sides. Becks is thirty this year, so I don't see anything longer than four years and an option... but a motivated Josh Beckett is definitely something to look forward to, and if he spends the year gearing up for a payday, ultimately costing a few million extra dollars of John Henry's dough? So be it. Imagine a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Matsuzaka, and Buchholz, with Wake for spot starts and extra rest. Wow.


8. The offense performs above expectations. Here's one that's a bit of a stretch. We've all been spoiled with years of Manny and Papi: that kind of firepower doesn't come along every day, and it would be selfish to expect to keep it forever. That said, the lineup does look a bit thin, and I have to believe the front office is hard at work to correct it.


7. Someone on the team wins a Gold Glove. Okay, I know the Gold Gloves are meaningless at best, and comical at worst (look no further than Derek Jeter's FOUR GGs for evidence of that), but I would like to see some recognition for what looks to be the best defensive team Boston has seen in years. If Youkilis stays at one position, I could see him being the team front runner: moving back and forth between first and third base (and left field!) have certainly hurt him in this area.

Photo from sawxblog.com

6. Marco Scutaro breaks the Curse of Nomahhh. You guys know this story: since the departure of Nomar Garciaparra in 2004, Boston has had a veritable parade of shortstops. We've seen the good (Alex Gonzales, Orlando Cabrera), the forgettable (Gil Velasquez, Alejandro Machado), and the downright disastrous (Edgar Rentaria, Julio Lugo). Here's hoping that Scutaro can hold down the fort until Jose Iglesias is ready to step in.


5. Jason Varitek imparts his wisdom (and A*Rod ass-kicking mojo) to VMart. From what I can gather, the Red Sox Captain continues to display his class by acknowledging his reduced role for next year. That's got to hurt the man's pride: taking a backseat to the new guy in town can't be easy, especially to a guy who, not so long ago, was the cream of the crop, catcher-wise. Variek has given his heart and soul to this team - his dedication (on the current roster) is rivaled only by the aforementioned Tim Wakefield. I wish nothing but happiness for Tek this year.


4. On a related note, I wish for an extension for Victor Martinez. Apparently that Luis Exposito kid is pretty damn good, but he's only 21, and though he had some success in AA Portland last season, catchers generally take a long time to develop. In the meantime, I'm a fan of seeing VMart behind the dish for the near future, especially with Varitek there to mentor him.


3. A good year of development for Theo's boys. It's common knowledge that Theo holds his prospects in the very highest esteem; some of you would even say he values them a bit too highly. However, it can only bode well for the big club if some of the kids have good seasons. Even if those at the lower levels can't help in Boston yet, good seasons improve their value as trade chips, and some of them will undoubtedly make guest appearances at Fenway before the year is done. I for one will be keeping an eye on Josh Reddick, Iglesias, Lars Anderson, Exposito, and Junichi Tazawa, among others.

Lars Anderson: GET BACK ON TRACK.

2. A monster year for Dustin Pedroia. It's no secret around here that Pedey is my very favorite player. Last year was by no means a bad year, but I'm confident he'd be the first to tell you that it was a fluke and he can do better. I'm sure that a combination of pitchers taking the 2008 MVP seriously (finally) and midseason stress over his wife and unborn son affected his game - not that he'd ever admit as much. However, Kelli and Dylan are just fine, and Pedey has undoubtedly dedicated himself to improving every possible facet of his game over the offseason.


1. A World Series title for the Boston Red Sox. Seeing the celebrations in the Bronx (I tried to avoid them, but it was impossible to miss all of it) made me feel physically ill. Let's turn some of that around, shall we?

Less of the former, more of the latter.

One last thing: I'd like to thank those of you who read and comment on the blog. I started it about a year ago as a place for me to vent about baseball, and never really thought I'd have any sort of audience. I'm honored that you spend any fraction of your internet time reading something I've written, and I hope to exceed your expectations in the coming year. Feedback is always appreciated, and I wish you all a happy and healthy New Year.

Bye Bye, Bay

So my last post looks rather silly now, eh?

According to the Boston Globe, Jason Bay is going to the Mets for 4 years and $66 million (pending a physical). I for one will miss the Palest of Them All patrolling left field at Fenway, despite his less than impressive defense. I suspect that come July, if the status quo remains intact, we'll all be wailing for him back (some of you, doubtless, will go further into the past and demand a return to the Manny era).

However, if Theo is truly done making moves for this offseason, and we go into Opening Day with a platoon of Jeremy Hermida and Mike Cameron, so be it: if the offense works out, that's great, and if not? Well, some of those prospects might like the nice sunny skies of San Diego. Or maybe he's saving for a push for another big bat - I don't see Joe Mauer leaving Minnesota (I actually hope he doesn't - he'll end up in pinstripes if he's simply looking for the biggest payday), something must be in the works. Theo never stops working, and he'll figure something out.

But back to Bay: he was a class act from the moment he stepped off the plane from Pittsburgh, and somehow made us forget about Manny (or at least somewhat forgive Theo for trading him). He blinded fans across Fenway Park with the pallor of his skin, and made those of us who are particularly SPF-needy feel positively bronzed, all while providing the power that Boston so desperately craved.

He was never a nuisance with the press, or the fans, and, from all accounts, was as classy in the clubhouse as he was on the field. Lest we forget, he scored the winning run of the 2008 ALDS against the Angels, getting spiked in the process:

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."

If the Mets can stay healthy (What? Mets and health in the same sentence?), Bay might have a shot in hell to play in October again. And if not? Well, he performed admirably for us, and that's all I can ask for. I wish you all the best, Mr. Bay. Mets fans are lucky to have you.

All I want for Christmas is you...

After initially snubbing the four-year, $60 million deal offered by the Red Sox, outfielder Jason Bay (via agent Joe Urbon) is reportedly making return inquiries. Though Bay has a four-year, $65 million deal from the New York Mets on the table, I'm sure he realizes that A) Citi Field is not friendly to hitters and B) playing in Queens isn't like playing in Boston.

Of course, Jason Bay came to the Sox in mid-2008, and performed admirably down the stretch and for the entirety of 2009, quickly putting to rest doubts that he could maintain his performance level in a big-market place like Boston.

Obviously, the Red Sox are in dire need of a bat for 2010, and Bay had more home runs than anyone else on the team last year, with 36 (Ortiz came in second, at 28). That said, a lot of things would need to fall into place for a deal to get worked out with Bay. First of all, the Sox gave money initially allotted for Bay to John Lackey, and with Mike Lowell's trade falling through, they would need to either shed some payroll, or suck it up and pay the luxury tax (not something John Henry is keen on doing). Secondly, the outfield is currently full: between Mike Cameron, JD Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jeremy Hermida, it's hard to see where Bay fits in. If, oh, I don't know, Ellsbury were to be traded for, say... Adrian Gonzalez, then there would be a spot for him...

I for one hope to see Bay back in a Red Sox uniform come Spring Training. He's been consistent and classy in his time in Boston, and though the Sox seem to be rolling in pitchers lately, they hardly possess a glut of power. Four years is reasonable (I'm just as uninterested as Theo to see what Bay plays like beyond the age of thirty-five), and I'd like to see something worked out that makes sense for both sides.

I want a Canadian left-fielder for Christmas, Theo. Please?

Sayonara, Fangirls?

There's been a lot of talk lately about what it would take to pry Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego, and because new GM Jed Hoyer's knowledge of the Red Sox farm system rivals that of Theo himself, it's going to be a lot. There will be no Heathcliff Slocumb for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek type of deal this time around: we will have to give up some truly valuable pieces to get one in return.

What type of valuable pieces, you ask? That's exactly the point of this post: we've all gotten used to hearing Clay Buchholz's name thrown out there, and though he's had some success on the major league level, the Sox are pitching rich (for now), so most fans are willing to part with him for the right piece. Now we're hearing whispers that a player we've been seeing daily for over a year might be part of the package... and not just any player, but the downright dreamiest man to don a Red Sox uniform since... well, at least since his devoted screaming fangirls (and fanguys - we don't discriminate here at Off the Monster) jumped on the bandwagon in 2004.

Personally, I wouldn't be all that torn up if Ellsbury got shipped off to San Diego. This might be unfair of me, but I just cannot stand a large percentage of fans who name him as their favorite player. Sure, there are those who rattle off his SB% (MUCH more important than the number of stolen bases, if you ask me), rising OPS, and improved plate discipline (he took eight more walks this year than in 2008!), and are legitimately excited about him as an athlete. I despise the term "Pink-Hatter," because I find it derogatory to female fans (maybe they just like the color!), but Ellsbury fangirls generally display the type of behavior expected of a stereotypical "Pink-Hatter," namely, a lack of knowledge about the game in general or the Red Sox in particular.

Are these women at a Beatles concert or a baseball game? CALM DOWN.

Do I think Adrian Gonzalez is worth a package including Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly, and Lars Anderson? Yes. In an instant. Prospects are exactly what their title implies: chances, opportunities, potential. You never know if a minor-league stud will pan out, and Gonzalez is as close to a sure thing as you can get in the current market.

I'll admit to having a personal agenda for supporting Golden Boy's inclusion in a deal: if it allows me to interact with just one less drunken fangirl per Fenway visit, I'll support it, but I also truly believe Gonzalez is worth the trade. The dynamic is very interesting, because we all know that Theo likes to trade high on his prospects, getting more in return than he is giving up, but in this case, the other side knows exactly everything he does.

Honesty's uncomfortable, eh Theo?

This is probably a deal that will happen (if it does) once the Padres inevitably start to falter. It would take major, um, guts, for a new GM such as Hoyer to trade a franchise player in his first months on the job. Hoyer is in the uncommon position of knowing Theo's thoughts and motives while negotiating, which is intriguing, to say the least. Get it done, Theo.... please?

Welcoming Another #23

Mike Cameron got up on the podium with Theo today and tried on his Red Sox jersey for the very first time. The number on the back? Good old #23.


Yes, 23... the number worn by three Red Sox players last season alone. Of course, Julio Lugo had worn the number since he joined the team in 2007 (Alex Cora generously switched to 13 so Lugo could have his preferred number), and when he was shipped to St. Louis, Adam LaRoche donned the uniform. (What? You don't remember LaRoche? He was with Boston for exactly six games, and by a weird stroke of chance, I was at Fenway for his one and only home run with the team, against Baltimore on July 25th.) LaRoche got flipped to Atlanta shortly thereafter, and speedster Joey Gathwright ended the season in jersey #23.

Let's hope that Cameron has more sucess and/or staying power than the last three guys to wear the number. According to Boston.com, Cameron has not played a corner outfield position since "his collision with Carlos Beltran in 2005," but has indicated his willingness to play in front of the Green Monster.

As we all know, Jacoby Ellsbury is able to play all three outfield positions without issues, which we saw in 2008 when he was platooning with Coco Crisp, but it makes sense that coaches would want to sit down with the two of them to discuss how best to work things out. This also begs the question: what about Jeremy Hermida? Perhaps given Cameron's age (37 next month), and JD Drew's injury history, Hermida will be a bench guy, though he seems to need more everyday seasoning to realize his potential, so he could also be used as trade bait.

All in all, I like the Cameron signing, even though it's looking more and more like Jason Bay will be playing in Queens, or, at the very least, not in Boston. Somehow, we need to get some of that power back, and Theo has apparently (again, according to Boston.com) been dropping hints that it's "easier to obtain a bat than a pitcher during the season, so that could be an indication that he's willing to wait to make another significant move."

Here's hoping that "significant move" comes in the way of Adrian Gonzalez, and that it happens well before the trade deadline. Perhaps Theo wants to wait and see how the John Lackey signing pans out before dealing Clay Buchholz, or Jed Hoyer wants reassurance that Clay can continue his run of success at the major league level (7-4, 4.21 ERA in the latter half of 2009) before trading a franchise player away for him?

Either way, all of this Hot Stove Action has not been conducive to my studying (it's finals week), but I'm still a fan of it. Check back later today or tomorrow for an entry on John Lackey, while I don't study enough for my American Presidency exam (sorry, Professor).

Winter Meetings

The MLB Winter Meetings are underway, and though the Sox have already added Marco Scutaro at the blackhole also known as shortstop, there's still a lot that could be done.

• While it's likely that Roy Halladay won't be pitching for Toronto next year, it's equally likely that he won't be pitching for Boston - if he's smart, he'll accept a trade to the National League (a 20-game winner in the AL East could do some serious damage in the NL West).

• Another name we've been hearing a lot is Adrian Gonzalez, which adds a measure of drama, as San Diego's new GM, Jed Hoyer, knows that Red Sox farm system better than anyone but Theo himself.

• The Sox still need a power bat. Most likely, either Matt Holliday or Jason Bay will end up in pinstripes, as the Evil Empire will be looking for an upgrade over Johnny Damon. I'd like to see Bay back, but letting him go, and then signing Holliday actually improvs their standing in the draft.

• Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito have both jumped ship for other teams, and the bullpen needs some depth.

I don't really expect much to get done during these meetings, but I do know that Theo is doing his best to give us a competitive team for 2010 and beyond. Stay tuned.

Looking Ahead...

I've spent a lot of time lately looking back on previous seasons, and while nostalgia has its place, I think it's time to look ahead... I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to pitchers and catchers already (even as I root for the Phils in the Fall [Almost Winter?] Classic).

People are already talking about next year as a "rebuilding year," seeing as we have some aging pieces and a limited free agent market to work with. This fits with what we know of Theo: he would happily sacrifice a year now for a sustained run of success later. However, this is where Theo and his former mentor, Larry Lucchino, disagree... Lucchino wants the sellout streak to continue: he doesn't want to wait, but to have success NOW (sounds familiar, doesn't it *cough*Steinbrenner*cough).


It will be interesting to see how this plays out, because the free agent class this year is positively anemic, and if Jason Bay wants the highest payday, he won't be playing in front of the Green Monster next season. If the aging players on the team (Lowell, Papi) can't produce, we're in big trouble. However, we do have the chips to land something big on the trade market, if Theo wants to pull the trigger... If you ask me, it won't happen, unless old friend (and new Padres GM) Jed Hoyer wants to talk Adrian Gonzalez.

That particular scenario is interesting, as Hoyer has extensive knowledge, not only of the Red Sox farm system, but what Theo thinks each prospect is worth. This could be detrimental to a possible trade, as the Sox try to sell high, but it could become one of those rare deals that works out well for both sides (Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, anyone?).

Anyway... Here's my guess (wish) at what the lineup might look like on Opening Day next year:

Ellsbury (CF) - A no-brainer... even if there's another unforeseen leadoff option, Ellsbury will be manning the outfield at Fenway next season. Hopefully he continues to build off a successful sophomore season (and works on his plate discipline).

Pedroia (2B) - If I was ever comfortable making a promise on the presence of a player, it's here. Pedroia is a great player and clubhouse presnece, and he's signed on short money for the foreseeable future. As an established star and fan-favorite, Theo would be a fool to trade him for anything short of Albert Pujols.

V-Mart (C) - Though it hasn't happened yet, the Sox will pick up Victor's 2010 option. Hopefully he works on throwing out baserunners, and makes the majority of starts behind the dish (please Varitek, swallow your prode and retire).

Youk (3B) - Youkilis is another player I feel will definitely be with the team next year: between his flexibility, consistently sparkling defense, and offensive numbers (he has a reasonable contract as well), Youk isn't going anywhere.

Adrian Gonzalez (1B) - This one is wishful thinking... But just what would it take to pry him out of San Diego? Casey Kelley? Daniel Bard? Clay Buchholz? Luis Exposito? Some combination, I'm sure...

Lowell/Ortiz (DH) - The Sox cannot trade David Ortiz unless he wants to go, as he is a 10/5 player... They would also have to eat a LOT of Lowell's contract to ship him somewhere, and he had the better numbers of the two. Hopefully, at least one of them will be able to produce.

[Bay/Reddick/Damon?] (LF) - Here's the mystery. The inimitable Chad Finn suspects that Bay will sign elsewhere, and he's usually pretty shrewd in his assumptions (he was the only major writer that predicted Teixeira to New York). People are throwing around Damon as a possibility, as his contract in New York is up, and if all else fails, I wouldn't be shocked to see Theo toss Reddick out there, though in my humble opinion he needs a little more seasoning in the minors.

Drew (RF) - For all the abuse JD gets, he's relatively consistent (and he was even mostly healthy this year!). Drew can carry a lineup when he gets hot, and has pitch recognition second to none (he's just quieter than about it than Youk). It IS strange that he's our team's highest paid player, though, at $14 million.

Alex Gonzalez (SS) - If the Sox can't find an upgrade, I could live with another year of Alex's defense (he just makes shortstop look so PRETTY), and if he swings the bat nearly as well as he did down the stretch, it's worth it.

That's what I think... Do you agree with me? Think Theo will pull together a blockbuster? Some thing like Buchholz, Ellsbury, and Casey Kelley for Prince Fielder? Let me know in the comments.

Earned Respect

I know that I used a recent post to outline the possible reasons that Jonathan Papelbon could be traded, but in light of today's nesn.com article, I feel that I should clarify.

Papelbon is not untouchable, but he's not on the immediate chopping block, either. I want to emphasize once again that Papelbon's ninth inning blown save in Game 3 of the ALDS has nothing to do with any trade that might go down. He picked a terrible time for an aberrational meltdown, but Theo is rational, and as painful as the Game 3 memory is, his stat line looks like this:

2009: 66 games, 68 IP, 1.85 ERA, 1-1 record, 38 saves
2008: 67 games, 69.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, 5-4 record, 41 saves
Career (5 seasons): 268 games, 298 IP, 1.84 ERA, 14-11 record, 151 saves

Manny Delcarmen is right: fans take Jonathan Papelbon for granted. Aside from Mariano Rivera (who I'm quite sure is an android of some sort), there's no one I'd be more comfortable seeing closing out games for the Sox.

"What Paps has done here, you've got to give the guy a lot of credit," Delcarmen said. "Like the way people acted after the last game, it was surprising to me and to a lot of people because of what he has done here. Like I said, he deserves a lot of respect -- it's baseball and stuff happens. He gets it done 99 percent of the time and that was just one game."

Lord Cinco-Ocho, as he's called himself, has earned our respect. Papelbon is a valuable commodity - he's almost a sure thing every time the ninth inning rolls around - and that's exactly why I wouldn't be shocked to see him go. Theo is a big fan of buying low and selling high, and the Red Sox have done stranger things in the ninth inning than trust the job to a still-developing rookie (closer by committee, anyone?). The name Papelbon would open a lot of otherwise locked doors on the trade market, and you know Theo is sniffing out every possibility. I hope Paps is still with us come Spring, but if he's not?

Well, In Theo I Trust.

In Theo I Trust.

While I was driving back to Hartford, I was listening to WEEI, and heard them discussing possible trade packages that would bring King Felix Hernandez to Boston... Combinations like Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buchholz, and Michael Bowden were thrown around.

And then, the kicker: "If you were Theo Epstein, would you even consider that possibility?"

Ummm... What? Theo entertains EVERY possibility. That is his job. No matter how far-fetched, you can bet out GM has looked into it.

Here, for instance, Theo discusses Roy Halladay for a pack of Big-League Chew and Javier Lopez with good friend JP Ricciardi.

We've come to appreciate Theo's style: covet your prospects; don't be afraid of a trade; don't get into bidding wars.

Just take a look at this year's postseason rotation: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz. Jon and Clay are products of the player development machine, and another homegrown talent (Hanley Ramirez), brought Beckett to town. Prospects are a valuable commodity, and the development team that Theo has put together continuously turns out good ones.

Everyone remembers Nomar: fan favorite, but causing unneeded drama in the clubhouse, accompanied by declining production. Theo shipped him off to Chicago at the deadline, cementing the roster of the eventual 2004 World Series Champions. Flash forward to 2008: Manny Ramirez heads to LA, Jason Bay comes to Boston, and prospects go to Pittsburgh (do the Pirates LIKE being a farm team for the rest of MLB?). That team came within one game of the World Series, and with a healthy Mike Lowell, might have gone further.

Last winter was an exception: Mark Teixeira was everything Theo looks for in a player (excluding the neurotic wife) - OBP, power, defense, relative youth. When it became clear that Boras and Leigh successfully drove Mark to the Bronx, Theo went with several low-risk, high-reward players... Not all of them worked out, but with some shrewd dealing at the deadline (hello, Gonzo and VMart), the Red Sox won their targeted 95 games and went to the playoffs.

The accepted sabremetric description of the playoffs is that they're essentially a crapshoot... This year didn't turn out so well, but everyone needs to calm down. Sure, the roster needs some tweaks, but Theo will make them. The 2010 Red Sox will be competitive: in Theo I Trust, and you should too.