2016 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO

2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO

2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO

2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO

2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO

2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO

2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

2015: 7-7, 18 starts, 113.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 23 BB, 107 SO

2016 projection: 10-9, 28 starts, 171 IP, 3.47 ERA, 44 BB, 136 SO

I don't know about you guys, but I've long since given up the idea that clay Buchholz will ever be the kind of pitcher who can give the Red Sox 200 innings - and it seems that Bill James and his team have decided to give up the idea that he'll even come that close.

And you know what? That's okay. One of the many, many reasons the Red Sox needed to sign themselves an ace was to take the pressure to perform at that level off of Buchholz's shoulders. Buchholz's best season in recent years was in 2013, when he was the number 4 pitcher entering the World Series (following Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy). Even at the season's outset, when expectations were low, the undisputed "ace" was always Lester.

Buchholz has never seemed like a guy who handles pressure well. That, plus an inability to stay stay healthy (probably linked to an inability to keep any bulk on his thin frame) means that while he still shows flashes of brilliance, the addition of David Price to the rotation can only help Buchholz's overall performance.

2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

Source

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
2015: 156 games, .320 BA, .355 OBP, .421 SLG, 7 HR, 81 RBI
2016 projection: 152 games, .298 BA, .348 OBP, .425 SLG, 12 HR, 76 RBI

Without Xander Bogaerts and his similarly young and talented teammates (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., etc.), the entirety of 2015 would have been spent wallowing in despair over the absolute joke of a pitching staff and the injury bug that seemed to keep every veteran player off the field for extended periods of time.

Bogaerts really came into his own in 2015 - and with a monopoly on the shortstop position, he performed at the plate. It seems that some predictability on the defensive side of things helped his consistency on offense. Bogaerts won his first ever Silver Slugger award in 2015, after a season that saw him top several offensive categories among AL shortstops.

Bill James and his team project another good year at the plate for Bogaerts in 2016, with perhaps just a smidge more power. As always, the single best thing about Xander Bogaerts is his age: he won't be a free agent until 2020 - but don't get too attached, as he's represented by Scott Boras.

For the foreseeable future, though, Bogaerts will don a Red Sox uniform, and I for one plan to enjoy each and every minute.

2016 Bill James Projections: Dustin Pedroia

Source

2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI 
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI 
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI 
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI 
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
2014: 135 games, .278 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG, 7 HR, 53 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .361 OBP, .421 SLG, 12 HR, 70 RBI

2015: 93 games, .291 BA, .356 OBP, .441 SLG, 12 HR, 42 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .288 BA, .359 OBP, .427 SLG, 13 HR, 64 RBI

The 2015 season saw Dustin Pedroia take the field fewer times than any year since he broke his foot in 2010. Pedroia looked promising out of the gate, clubbing two home runs on Opening Day in Philadelphia, but would soon be sidelined with a hamstring strain, speanding the rest of the season bouncing on and off the disabled list.

Pedroia's all-in, every play, every day approach is endearing, but dangerous. He puts his body on the line in every situation - even when it might not be totally necessary, and as he gets older, that kind of dedication will only result in more pains, strains, and pulls. 

But the good news is that Pedroia often turns in an excellent season the year after an injury - possibly because his body has a little extra time to recover from the abuse he puts it through. Bill James and his team project Pedroia to stay on the field a bit more in 2016, and there's no question that Pedroia will be giving it his all each and every day.

2016 Bill James Projections: Mookie Betts

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2014: 52 games, .291 BA, .368 OBP, .444 SLG, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB

2015 projection: 154 games, .321 BA, .405 OBP, .493 SLG, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 40 SB

2015: 145 games, .291 BA, .341 OBP, .479 SLG, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 21 SB

2016 projection: 150 games, .309 BA, .375 OBP, .504 SLG, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 28 SB

Though Mookie Betts came in on the low side of most of Bill James' 2015 projections, I don't think many Red Sox fans could find much fault in his first full season in the big leagues. Betts blossomed into a great center fielder who holds his own at the plate, and he won't hit twenty-four until next October.

One of the things that might be overlooked in Betts is his plate discipline. The 2016 Bill James Handbook rates him as Very Patient at the plate, even singling him out in the following tidbit: "In 650 plate appearances, [Kris] Bryant whiffed* 448 times, or 303 more than Mookie Betts in four fewer plate appearances."

That's right, Betts swung and missed just 145 times in 654 plate appearances, striking out 82 times (Bryant struck out 199 times in 2015). Not a bad season when you can be very favorably compared to the Rookie of the Year.

But aside from his prowess at the plate, Betts has seamlessly transitioned from a second baseman into a center fielder. While it's easy to recall one of the several spectacular grabs Betts made in the outfield this season, he put in the work day in and day out, and was in the top 10 in runs saves for center fielders in 2015 with nine.

In a season where a lot of things went wrong, Betts and other young Red Sox players provided the bright spots. I can't wait to see what kind of a show he puts on in 2016.

*"Whiffed" in this context means swinging and missing, not striking out.

2015 Bill James Projections: Christian Vazquez

Source

2014: 55 games, .240 BA, .308 OBP, .309 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2015 projection: 110 games, .256 BA, .326 OBP, .343 SLG, 3 HR, 35 RBI

Though Red Sox catchers talk this season has been focused on the possibility that prospect Blake Swihart might get packaged to Philadelphia for Cole Hamels, the Sox have quite a catcher already in Christian Vazquez.

Though Swihart is widely regarded as the best catching prospect in baseball, Vazquez has some serious supporters of his own. Joe Kelly calls Vazquez "Mini-Yadi," a nod to Yadier Molina of the famously talented Molina catching brothers.

The comparison makes some sense, even if it's quite a lot to live up to, as Vazquez spends part of each offseason working out with the Molinas in their native Puerto Rico. For his part, Yadier Molina has confidence in Vazquez's abilities, both behind the plate and with the bat, proclaiming, "He's going to hit."

In 55 games with the Red Sox last season, Vazquez hit a light .240, but his teammates are rooting for him, and he did show improvement near the end of the year. Bill James and his team project only minor improvement for Vazquez this year, but catcher isn't typically a position that's expected to should a huge offensive responsibility.

If Vazquez can hold steady or even improve behind the dish with Kelly singing his praises to the pitching staff, the bridge to Swihart appears to be very solid.

2015 Bill James Projections: Mookie Betts

Source

2014: 52 games, .291 BA, .368 OBP, .444 SLG, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB
2015 projection: 154 games, .321 BA, .405 OBP, .493 SLG, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 40 SB

Despite the very crowded Red Sox outfield heading into spring training, Bill James and his team expect Mookie Betts to burst onto the Red Sox scene and never look back. Betts made his major league debut in June of last year, and bounced between Pawtucket and Boston a few times before finishing the season with the Red Sox.

When Betts was in the lower levels of the Red Sox minor league system, he primarily played second base, though he'd also excelled at shortstop and outfield in high school. Though he was blocked at second by Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox valued his athleticism and prowess with a bat enough to retrain him as an outfielder rather than shipping him off in a trade.

Betts no longer counts as a Red Sox prospect, or he'd be near the top of all the ratings lists floating around the internet this month. If he even approximates the numbers James has laid out, the Red Sox will be thrilled: at only 21, Betts won't be eligible for arbitration until 2018, and he's under team control through 2021.

Betts' success would probably mean one of the older and more expensive outfielders on the Sox roster being shown the door, but the Red Sox have handled their farm system well, and Betts is just one of a number of young players looking to make a name for themselves this coming season.

Given the fact that he barely flinched at the adjustment to facing major league pitching last autumn, Betts seems like the kind of player to establish his star-power early - and woe to anyone who might stand in his way.

2015 Bill James Projection: Rick Porcello

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2010: 10-12, 27 starts, 162.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 38 BB, 84 SO
2011 projection: 10-11, 29 starts, 188 IP, 4.21 ERA, 52 BB, 102 SO
2011: 14-9, 31 starts, 182 IP, 4.75 ERA, 46 BB, 104 SO
2012 projection: 10-11, 31 starts, 190 IP, 4.22 ERA, 49 BB, 105 SO
2012: 10-12, 31 starts, 176.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 44 BB, 107 SO
2013 projection: 9-11, 31 starts, 178 IP, 4.50 ERA, 45 BB, 102 SO
2013: 13-8, 29 starts, 177 IP, 4.32 ERA, 42 BB, 142 SO
2014 projection: 9-11, 30 starts, 186 IP, 4.31 ERA, 45 BB, 117 SO
2014: 15-13, 31 starts, 204.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 41 BB, 129 SO
2015 projection: 11-13, 32 starts, 209 IP, 4.00 ERA, 45 BB, 132 SO

It's curious to me that Bill James and his team project Rick Porcello's ERA will go up significantly next season, considering he's consistently improved in that area every season since 2010.

Porcello is a member of the much-debated and sometimes-maligned 2015 Red Sox rotation. The group is often referred to as a staff of number 3 starters, but I think that's unfair. Is Rick Porcello a bona fide ace? Absolutely not [yet]. But he could certainly be a solid number two.

Rick Porcello was an important member of the vaunted Detroit Tigers staff for the last few seasons, and while his contributions were sometimes forgotten behind those of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, there were times when Porcello outperformed them both.

All of this, plus the fact that Porcello is just 26 years old, makes him a fantastic addition to the Red Sox. The downside is that he's a year out from free agency, and apparently uninterested in discussing an extension.

But with a potential payday on the horizon, the Red Sox will be getting a young, talented pitcher with an incredibly large incentive for giving the 2015 season everything he has in the tank.

I think James' projections for Porcello are underestimating him. Despite the naysayers and the "We should have signed Shields" whiners, I expect big things from Porcello this season.

2015 Bill James Projections: Justin Masterson

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2010: 6-13, 29 starts, 180 IP, 4.70 ERA, 73 BB, 140 SO
2011 projection: 9-10, 26 starts, 175 IP, 4.11 ERA, 73 BB, 147 SO
2011: 12-10, 33 starts, 216 IP, 3.21 ERA, 65 BB, 158 SO
2012 projection: 11-12, 32 starts, 205 IP, 3.82 ERA, 70 BB, 164 SO
2012: 11-15, 34 starts, 206.1 IP, 4.93 ERA, 88 BB, 159 SO
2013 projection: 10-12, 34 starts, 204 IP, 4.01 ERA, 79 BB, 160 SO
2013: 14-10, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.45 ERA, 76 BB, 195 SO
2014 projection: 10-12, 30 starts, 198 IP, 3.82 ERA, 78 BB, 165 SO
2014: 7-9, 25 starts, 128.2 IP, 5.88 ERA,  69 BB, 116 SO
2015 projection: 9-13, 31 starts, 194 IP, 4.22 ERA, 93 BB, 164 SO

 As much as I liked Victor Martinez, and as happy as I was to see him come to the Red Sox in 2009, I was always a little sour about that deal requiring Justin Masterson's departure.

Masterson was a home grown guy who came to the mound every outing determined to win. He had a funky delivery and a goofy smile on his face, and he seemed like the kind of person everyone wants to be around.

All that said, the deal was a good one for the Red Sox at the time - but it also means that I was totally ecstatic to see Masterson signing a free agent deal with the Sox this offseason.

No, there isn't an obvious ace in the Sox 2015 rotation, and it's unlikely Masterson will evolve into one overnight. But the front office has put together a staff of solid pitchers, and seem content to assume one or more of them will have a good-to-excellent season.

Joe Kelly's self-confidence aside, Justin Masterson would love to be the guy who steps up big for Boston this year. He signed a one-year deal in the hope that he'll perform well and be able to cash in next season.

Obviously, Masterson's numbers haven't been great for the last few years, but he's also struggled with lingering injuries. Already in Fort Myers, Masterson reports he's pain free for the first time in a long while.

If Masterson can only deliver what Bill James and his team projected for him in 2015, the Red Sox will have seemingly wasted $9.5 million. But the contract has an additional $2.5 million in incentives, and Masterson's health is keeping me optimistic.

I think we'll see a big year from Masterson in 2015. At the very least, it'll be nice to see him in a Red Sox uniform once again.

2015 Bill James Projections: Wade Miley

Source

2011: 4-2, 7 starts, 40 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 BB, 25 SO
2012 projection: 4-5, 14 starts, 80 IP, 3.94 ERA, 30 BB, 61 SO
2012: 16-11, 29 starts, 194.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 37 BB, 144 SO
2013 projection: 12-10, 30 starts, 199 IP, 3.57 ERA, 50 BB, 150 SO
2013: 10-10, 33 starts, 202.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 66 BB, 147 SO
2014 projection: 12-11, 32 starts, 203 IP, 3.68 ERA, 59 BB, 151 SO
2014: 8-12, 33 starts, 201.1 IP, 4.34 ERA, 75 BB, 183 SO
2015 projection: 10-11, 30 starts, 184 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 145 SO

The Red Sox traded for Wade Miley shortly before losing Jon Lester to the Cubs, and the trade almost suggested that Boston knew it wouldn't be luring Lester back to Fenway Park.

But let's be perfectly clear: Wade Miley, despite being a big southpaw, is not Jon Lester. Red Sox Nation mourned the loss of Lester, a true left-handed ace - but Ben Cherington made the right long term call, as the years committed by the Cubs are overzealous at best.

So what does Miley bring to the table? He throws his ~90mph fastball about two-thirds of the time, though he leaned on it slightly less last year than in previous years. He also throws a slider, a changeup, and (rarely) a curveball.

The biggest advantage Miley will bring to the Red Sox is the near-guarantee that he'll throw a lot of innings: since making the jump from 40 IP to 194 IP in 2012, Miley has neared or topped the 200 inning mark in each of the last three seasons. The importance of that durability on a staff that includes Clay Buchholz cannot be overstated.

The other thing about Miley is that he'll be just 28 this year. He's been good if not spectacular throughout his career, but he still has plenty of time to grow as a player - and John Farrell has an excellent track record when it comes to molding young arms.

Bill James and his team calculated their projections with the assumption Miley would be pitching in the NL West, so it's likely there will be an adjustment period when he moves to the AL East. Still, Red Sox fans should absolutely be optimistic about Miley's future in Boston. He's a solid pitcher with a high ceiling, and as of today, the only lefty in the Red Sox rotation.

2015 Bill James Projection: Pablo Sandoval

Source

2011: 117 games, .315 BA, .357 OBP, .552 SLG, 23 HR, 70 RBI
2012 projection: 144 games, .311 BA, .363 OBP, .525 SLG, 24 HR, 86 RBI
2012: 108 games, .283 BA, .342 OBP, .447 SLG, 12 HR, 63 RBI
2013 projection: 150 games, .298 BA, .356 OBP, .498 SLG, 22 HR, 88 RBI
2013: 141 games, .278 BA, .341 OBP, .417 SLG, 14 HR, 79 RBI
2014 projection: 140 games, .292 BA, .354 OBP, .466 SLG, 18 HR, 81 RBI
2014: 157 games, .279 BA, .324 OBP, .415 SLG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .287 BA, .344 OBP, .447 SLG, 18 HR, 82 RBI

I don't know about any of you, but when I was watching the World Series this year, the idea that the Red Sox would go after - and then sign! - Pablo Sandoval never even crossed my mind. I took it as a matter of course that he would return to the Giants, but I'm thrilled to have been wrong.

The man they call Panda will be in Boston for the foreseeable future, as the deal has been reported at 5 years/$100 million. While I know there are people concerned about the length of the deal, I am not one of them: Sandoval is currently 28 years old, and will be just 33 at the end of this contract - well within the lifespan of an elite hitter.

There's plenty of speculation that Sandoval has been brought into the fold to take David Ortiz's place as a full time DH when the lefthanded legend calls it a career. Obviously, Red Sox fans will always have a special place in our hearts for Ortiz, but the comparison with Sandoval isn't too out there.

Panda is the kind of player who typically has good production during the regular season, but absolutely explodes when the pressure is on. Over three World Series, Sandoval batted .426 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, and a WS MVP Award. For comparison, Ortiz's line is .455 with 3 HR, 14 RBI, and 2 WS MVP Awards.

Personally, I can't wait to see the two of them sharing a lineup; as a guy who thrives in high-stakes situations, the pressure cooker of Boston should suit Sandoval nicely.

2015 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB

The rumors would crop up almost every year between the time Hanley Ramirez went to Florida and this offseason: the one-time Red Sox prospect was coming back. It now seems there's an actual fire under all that smoke, and Ramirez, now a bona fide star, is on his way back to Boston.

But what can we expect from Ramirez this season? It's unclear where the soon-to-be 31-year-old will even play: the Red Sox seem content with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop (and pulling him from his natural position seemed to have consequences this season), and are reportedly among the finalists to sign free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

There's talk that Ramirez could end up in left field if the Red Sox are the winners of the Sandoval sweepstakes, but he's never played a major league game in the outfield in his ten years of service time. One thing remains clear: no matter what we get from Ramirez defensively, his bat will add some much-needed pop to a Red Sox lineup that in 2014 could be accurately described as "lethargic."

Ramirez's average has hovered around .300 his entire career, and his power numbers are certainly well above what you would expect from a shortstop in the post-steroid era. Over the past few years, Bill James and his team have done a reliable job either underestimating Ramirez slightly, or hitting their projections almost exactly on the nose.

If Ramirez can live up to what James has projected for his 2015 in the midst of trading one big market (LA) for another (the admittedly much more baseball-crazed Boston), we should have an exciting season on our hands.

Welcome back to Boston, Hanley Ramirez: the expectations will be higher here, but the fans will show up before the third inning and stay until the end, and the reward, should you lead us all the way, will be that much sweeter.

2015 Bill James Projections: Mike Napoli

Source

2011: 113 games, .320 BA, .414 OBP, .631 SLG, 30 HR, 75 RBI
2012 projection: 131 games, .271 BA, .364 OBP, .537 SLG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
2012: 108 games, .227 BA, .343 OBP, .469 SLG, 24 HR, 56 RBI
2013 projection: 127 games, .248 BA, .350 OBP, .498 SLG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
2013: 139 games, .259 BA, .360 OBP, .482 SLG, 23 HR, 92 RBI
2014 projection: 137 games, .246 BA, .348 OBP, .471 SLG, 26 HR, 79 RBI
2014: 119 games, .248 BA, .370 OBP, .419 SLG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
2015 projection: 135 games, .246 BA, .355 OBP, .453 SLG, 23 HR, 72 RBI

The biggest discrepancy between Mike Napoli's 2013 season and his 2014 season is in the power numbers, primarily home runs and RBIs. Of course, there were fewer Red Sox on base for Nap to drive in this season than last, and he played twenty fewer games this season than last, all well dealing with assorted injuries.

Napoli is currently recovering from surgery to relieve his sleep apnea, a condition that restricts airways during sleep, causing loud snoring and a disruption in breathing. Sleep apnea sufferers often feel tired even after a full night's sleep, so if the surgery was successful it stands to reason Napoli will be better rested in 2015.

After last year's World Series, the Red Sox extended Nap to the tune of two years, and $32 million, so he's due $16 million in 2015, and will be a free agent at the conclusion of next season. If Napoli can perform up to Bill James' projections for him next season, it will be money well spent.

Mike Napoli has embraced the Red Sox and Boston in a way that few players can, and his current contract is exactly the kind of thing the team should pursue in the future: short in years, and perhaps a bit generous in annual value. 

2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

Source

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI

Xander Bogaerts didn't quite live up to his 2014 projections, but it was well within the margin of error, and well within an acceptable range for a major league shortstop.

Not to mention, Bogaerts is still just 22 - there's plenty of time for him to develop into the offensive and defensive wunderkind we're all hoping for - unlike some people I can think of (ahem, Clay Buchholz).

Once again in 2014, Bogaerts was asked to shift around the infield in deference to Stephen Drew, though he was allowed to return to his natural position at shortstop when Drew headed south at the trade deadline. 

The best two months of Bogaerts' 2014? May, before Drew came to town, and September, once Bogaerts readjusted to being a full time shortstop. Those also happen to be the two months in which he had the most plate appearances.

As a guy who seemingly performs best when he's playing in the field regularly, Xander Bogaerts will probably never be able to make a career transition to DH. But as the shortstop position should be his alone for 2015, it should be safe to expect improvement.

2015 Bill James Projections: Will Middlebrooks

Source

2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

2013: 94 games, .227 BA, .271 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 49 RBI

2014 projection: 145 games, .266 BA, .310 OBP, .490 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

2014: 63 games, .191 BA, .256 OBP, .265 SLG, 2 HR, 19 RBI

2015 projection: 127 games, .244 BA, .292 OBP, .418 SLG, 19 HR, 70 RBI

Will Middlebrooks has had his fair share of setbacks in his first few years. He's been shuttled back and forth to Pawtucket for seasoning and rehab, and this year he played his fewest games in Boston since his debut in 2012.

Middlebrook's calf strain in April, followed shortly by a broken finger, were probably among the first signs that 2014 would be a disappointing year. In the games he actually managed to stay on the field, his numbers were underwhelming.

Bill James' projections for Middlebrooks represent a huge jump in productivity over his injury-shortened 2014, but if we're being honest with ourselves they're really not up to snuff for a corner infielder in the American League.

Doubtless the Red Sox front office has been aware of this for quite some time, and I trust Ben Cherington to have some ideas up his sleeves if Middlebrooks become yet another prospect who can't live up to the hype.

As with most home-grown prospects, Middlebrooks is a fan favorite. But all the fans in the world rooting for him won't force him to make the adjustments necessary to be the lineup-anchoring force the Red Sox need him to be. That's up to him.

2015 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO
2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO
2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO
2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO
2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO
2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

I don't want to alarm anyone, but the last two years the Red Sox have won the World Series are also the only two times in Clay Buchholz's career with a season ERA under 2. 

Then again, he didn't play close to a full season either time: in 2007, it was because he was a rookie, making his debut. In 2013, he dominated in the first half, only to be sidelined by injury down the stretch.

As is his custom when turning in a full season, Buchholz's 2014 was a disappointment. It's as if his slim frame can't sustain excellence for more than a dozen starts. He's a top of the line pitcher, when he can be healthy.

Obviously, Bill James and his team can't predict injury, but if they did, Buchholz would be a safe bet. It's time to give up the dream we embraced when Buchholz came up: he's thirty years old, and he'll never be the young ace we hoped for. 

But if Buchholz can live up to James' projections for starts and ERA, he's a passable third or fourth starter. The biggest problem facing the Red Sox this offseason is their pitching. If Jon Lester returns home to us, that would be an excellent start, because having Clay Buchholz be the most established pitcher on the team (as he was after the trade deadline this year) simply doesn't work.

2015 Bill James Projections: Jackie Bradley Jr.

Source

2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB
2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB
2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB
2014: 127 games, .198 BA, .265 OBP, .266 SLG, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 8 SB
2015 projection: 129 games, .226 BA, .298 OBP, .341 SLG, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 8 SB

It's no secret that Jackie Bradley Jr.'s value doesn't primarily lie in his bat. This season wasn't nearly as much fun overall as 2013, but Bradley's consistently spectacular performance in the outfield was one of the few bright spots.

Bill James is slightly less optimistic for 2015 after Bradley's disappointing offensive performance in 2014, but he's still predicting some improvement, including a nearly 30 point jump in batting average.

Obviously Bradley will never be a power hitter, but post-steroid era, how many elite defensive center fielders can claim that title? Not to mention, runs saved are just as valuable as runs scored, and though Bradley scored only 53, he saved 14. 

The player Bradley was tasked with replacing in the Red Sox outfield, Jacoby Ellsbury, scored 88 runs, but saved -5, meaning his defense (and let's be clear, probably his below-average throwing arm) cost the Yankees five runs. Bradley was worth 67 net runs to the Red Sox, while Ellsbury was worth 83 for the Yankees - not as big a difference as one might expect, given the $20 million difference in their salaries.

Would it be nice to have Ellsbury? Sure, at least until he's owed $63 million dollars for ages 35-37. But if Bradley can improve at the plate as much as James seems to believe, he's an absolute steal - and the highlight reel catches will keep on coming.

Beauty in Numbers

When it comes to baseball analytics and particularly newer metrics (defensive measurements chief among them), there's a tendency within the baseball world to split into two camps: that which embraces the new world order wholeheartedly and without question, and that which rejects new methods, preferring instead to rely on conventional wisdom.

These two groups battle it out on online message boards and comment threads, in sports bars and in the stands, and even in clubhouses and front offices across the game. In most major league cities, the verdict is in, and the geeks have won - any major league manager or GM that ignores his stat department won't have a job for long.

But does the issue really have to be so black and white? The stat people argue that their counterparts are stuck in the past, too stubborn to embrace tools to improve their teams' performances. The old guard feels as if numbers and equations threaten to overshadow the simple beauty of a knee-buckling curveball or a soaring home run.

From where I'm standing, both sides have their merits. Statistical measures make baseball unique and allow for another dimension of quantitative understanding. But I fell in love with the qualitative parts of the game: the pop of the catcher's mitt, the smell of hot dogs cooking at the ballpark, and the looks on the faces of the players when one of their teammates does something incredible.

I play fantasy baseball, and I read FanGraphs, and I'm a loyal consumer of everything Bill James puts out - but the game I love wouldn't be the same if it didn't play out in real time, on real grass (except in Toronto and Tampa Bay), with real people.

I love the numbers because they describe and (sometimes) predict what I see on the field. It seems that the most successful teams neither abandon the old, go-with-your-gut ways of scouting, nor scorn the ever-changing field of sabermetrics. No, success comes when the old guard embraces the new, and the front office listens to conventional wisdom and innovative new techniques.

Ten years ago, you would never see OBP on a graphic for a televised baseball game - now even the most casual fan expects it as a baseline. But the traditional box score staples are still around, and the combination makes for a more complete baseball experience.

And as someone who practically goes into mourning between November and February, I'm always looking for a more complete baseball experience.

2014 Bill James Projections - Daniel Nava

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2012: 88 games, .243 BA, .352 OBP, .390 SLG, 6 HR, 33 RBI

2013 projection: 87 games, .266 BA, .367 OBP, .414 SLG, 6 HR, 35 RBI

2013: 134 games, .303 BA, .385 OBP, .445 SLG, 12 HR, 66 RBI

2014 projection: 121 games, .285 BA, .377 OBP, .435 SLG, 11 HR, 59 RBI

Daniel Nava has been fighting for his baseball life throughout his career. He was undrafted out of college, and then when the Red Sox signed him out of the independent leagues, they paid just $1 for the right.

After languishing in the minors for three full years, he made his major league debut on June 12, 2010 against the Phillies - and deposited the first pitch he saw into bleachers for a grand slam. I was at that game, so Nava will always have a special place in my heart.

Daniel Nava was never supposed to make it. He wasn't supposed to be able to succeed at any level, but he's made a career out of succeeding at every level. Nava is currently first on the Red Sox depth chart in left field, so barring any major adjustments he should finally get the chance to be an every day player.

At this point, it would be a fool's errand to underestimate Nava - and I think that's exactly what Bill James and co. have done this year. I don't see Nava's batting average taking a nearly twenty point plunge just when he'll get the chance to be an everyday starter.

2014 Bill James Projections - Mike Carp

Source

2011: 79 games, .276 BA, .326 OBO, .466 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2012 projection: 79 games, .258 BA, .327 OBP, .442 SLG, 11 HR, 40 RBI
2012: 59 games, .213 BA, .312 OBP, .341 SLG, 5 HR, 20 RBI
2013 projection: 61 games, .252 BA, .329 OBP, .410 SLG, 5 HR, 19 RBI
2013: 86 games, .296 BA, .362 OBP, .523 SLG, 9 HR, 43 RBI
2014 projection: 126 games, .257 BA, .330 OBP, .436 SLG, 13 HR, 49 RBI

Oh, the life of a fourth outfielder/backup first baseman. Mike Carp played the most games in his career last season, and Bill James and his crew are projecting him to blow out that personal best in 2014.

Carp was an important role player last season - he played in just over half the regular season games, and had just eight plate appearances in the postseason (where he had exactly zero hits, but it was a light hitting postseason for everyone not named Ortiz).

Bill James' projection for playing time could be curtailed if the Grady Sizemore experiment pans out, but Carp's outfield versatility should keep him around.

I often catch myself thinking of Mike Carp as much older than he is: he won't be 28 until almost July, and because of his age and limited playing time, he's under team control for a few more years.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jake Peavy

Source

2011: 7-7, 18 starts, 111.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 24 BB, 95 SO
2012 projection: 8-5, 19 starts, 123 IP, 3.51 ERA, 29 BB, 121 SO
2012: 11-12, 32 starts, 219 IP, 3.37 ERA, 49 BB, 194 SO
2013 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 211 IP, 3.20 ERA, 47 BB, 200 SO
2013: 12-5, 23 starts, 144.2 IP, 4.17 ERA, 36 BB, 121 SO
2014 projection: 11-7, 25 starts, 163 IP, 3.31 ERA, 39 BB, 150 SO

It's been a long time since Jake Peavy won his Cy Young Award, and he hasn't been able to come close to matching the dominance of that 2007 season since. Nevertheless, he's a solid starter, and despite the howling from some corners of Red Sox Nation when we sent Jose Iglesias to Detroit in the three team deal that brought us Peavy, his short time in Boston has been successful.

There always seem to be murmurs of a trade surrounding Jake Peavy, and this year has been no different. The Red Sox have six legitimate starters on their roster right now, so somebody is likely to be the odd man out, and Peavy could be a free agent as soon as next season. (His contract includes a $15 million player option, but it will only vest if he reaches certain unlikely milestones.)

Assuming Peavy sticks around through 2014, and he lives up to Bill James' projections, he'll be a reliable starter. Whether he's actually worth the $14.5 million he'll be paid is another question entirely, but I'd hazard a guess that the Red Sox ownership is perfectly content to pay him for his contributions for the 2013 World Championship - I know I am.