2013 Bill James Projections - Ryan Sweeney

2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI
2012: 63 games, .260 BA, .303 OBP, .373 SLG, 0 HR, 16 RBI
2013 projection: 86 games, .273 BA, .335 OBP, .370 SLG, 2 HR, 24 RBI

Yes, it's official, Ryan Sweeney will be back in Boston for the 2013 season. Though technically signed to a minor league deal, Sweeney has been invited to spring training, and with Ryan Kalish's impending surgery, you have to assume that Sweeney will be on the Opening Day Roster.

Sweeney made an early departure last year after he broke his hand punching a door in the in the clubhouse out of frustration.  The only possible positive outcome of such a childish action is that it easily got buried in the overwhelming amount of terrible news surrounding last season's Red Sox.

Sweeney apologized at the time for his display of temper and its repercussions, and is even making jokes about it on his Twitter:

He seems happy for the opportunity, and is, in his own words "exited to be back with Boston," which is especially impressive given how the season ended here in 2012.  I'm still super bummed about Kalish's seemingly continuous health problems, but Sweeney has some comparable numbers (although we admittedly lose some power potential). 

Ryan Sweeney needs anger management

Because Ryan Sweeney took out his frustration about grounding out by punching a door (instead of throwing his bat or helmet like a NORMAL person), he's going to be out probably eight weeks.  So the Red Sox are down yet another outfielder for basically the rest of the regular season.

Sweeney did apologize to the team, the fans, and his fellows via his Twitter account, but the damage is done.  Besides the fact that the LAST thing this team needs is another guy on the disabled list, it seems like the Sox had been showcasing him lately, perhaps looking to trade him off for a useful piece to keep postseason hopes alive.

Since that's out the window, and with the trading deadline fast approaching, things are getting complicated.  Since taking two of three from the Yankees, and taking the first game against Detroit last night (on the back of Dustin Pedroia), the Red Sox are looking to add, not subtract.

Obviously, it's too bad that they didn't subtract the damaged Ryan Sweeney.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Outfielders

[A continuation of this post which I began with the Bill James projections for infielders.]


Left field, Carl Crawford:
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI
2011: 130 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 155 games, .286 BA, .332 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 73 RBI

It's no secret that Crawford performed rather less well than we had hoped he would last season, and James' expectations seem to have been lowered in keeping with 2011.  The good news is that though Crawford only managed to steal 18 bases last year, James thinks he'll steal 34 next season.


Center field, Jacoby Ellsbury:
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI

I think it's safe to say that Ellsbury proved himself last year, but apparently James is expecting a backslide. Here's hoping Goldenboy proves him wrong.


[Possible] Right fielder, Ryan Sweeney:
2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI

Both last years numbers and the projections were for Oakland - and Sweeney's playing time is up in the air.  These numbers are solid enough for a fourth outfielder, but I'd like to see more power out of a permanent corner guy.

[Possible] Right fielder, Darnell McDonald:
2011: 79 games, .236 BA, .303 OBP, .401 SLG, 6 HR, 24 RBI

2012 projection: 113 games, .268 BA, .325 OBP, .320 SLG, 9 HR, 40 RBI


McDonald has been more than serviceable in the last few years - the right fielder job is still up in the air, and it stands to reason he'll get a shot at it.


Other possibilities for the outfield include Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin, both of whom spent last year in the minors, so they don't have projections in the 2012 Handbook.

Andrew Bailey to the Sox

 According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox have traded for Oakland A's closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.  Josh Reddick will be shipping out to Oakland, and  Class-A first baseman Miles Head and Class-A pitcher Raul Alcantara will be headed to A's minor league affiliate.

I know some of you grew pretty fond of Reddick last season, since he spent more than half the season with the big club, but his shoes are sure to be filled by someone capable.  While Rookie Reddick was serviceable, batting .280 with seven home runs and 28 RBIs in 87 games, he played just 56 of those games in right field.  According to the Globe's Pete Abraham, the Sox were downright deplorable in right field last season:

Red Sox right fielders hit .233/.299/.353 last season with 14 homers and 58 RBIs. Going by OPS, only Seattle was worse in the American League.

It's unlikely that Sweeney would end up being the full-time right fielder, as he's capable of playing all three outfield positions, and he seems to be more of a utility/fourth outfielder type, batting .265 with 25 RBIs and just one home run last season in 108 games.  We'll probably be seeing a lot of Ryan Kalish, who has hopefully fully recovered from all of his ailments.  Obviously, Kalish won't just be handed the job - there will be some competition in Spring Training.

But we all know that the gem of this deal is 27-year-old Andrew Bailey.  Since the departure of Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox Nation has been understandably worried about who is going to be closing games, especially because former heir-apparent Daniel Bard has expressed interest in starting.  Bailey should be a serviceable replacement, as he has 75 saves in his three-year career, and though his ERA went up considerably last year (1.47 to 3.24), he had nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks.

It will be interesting to see how Bailey fares in the AL East, especially after spending his career in the somewhat cushier AL West (though I'm sure he's happy he doesn't have to face the Angels and Albert Pujols 18 times a season).  All in all, this is a solid move for new GM Ben Cherington - maybe it will even get Red Sox Nation off his back.