2015 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

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2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO
2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO
2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO
2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO
2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO
2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

I don't want to alarm anyone, but the last two years the Red Sox have won the World Series are also the only two times in Clay Buchholz's career with a season ERA under 2. 

Then again, he didn't play close to a full season either time: in 2007, it was because he was a rookie, making his debut. In 2013, he dominated in the first half, only to be sidelined by injury down the stretch.

As is his custom when turning in a full season, Buchholz's 2014 was a disappointment. It's as if his slim frame can't sustain excellence for more than a dozen starts. He's a top of the line pitcher, when he can be healthy.

Obviously, Bill James and his team can't predict injury, but if they did, Buchholz would be a safe bet. It's time to give up the dream we embraced when Buchholz came up: he's thirty years old, and he'll never be the young ace we hoped for. 

But if Buchholz can live up to James' projections for starts and ERA, he's a passable third or fourth starter. The biggest problem facing the Red Sox this offseason is their pitching. If Jon Lester returns home to us, that would be an excellent start, because having Clay Buchholz be the most established pitcher on the team (as he was after the trade deadline this year) simply doesn't work.

AL Wild Card: A's vs. Royals

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I'm sure I'm far from the only Red Sox fan rooting for Jon Lester to lead the A's to a Wild Card win over the Royals tonight. But hoping for victory from one of Red Sox Nation's most mourned 2014 departures isn't the only reason to back Oakland over Kansas City.

The starter for the Royals is James Shields.

Yes, this James Shields:

(Interestingly enough, former Ray/A/Red Sox and current A Jonny Gomes is also involved in this fight)

And the presumable center field starter for the A's? None other than Shield's long-lost brawling partner (and former Red Sox), Coco Crisp.

Now, I won't go so far as to suggest that a Brawl 2.0 between the Crisp and Shields would be ideal, but it would lend even more drama to the win-or-go-home Wild Card game.

Given the choice between former (and hated) Ray James Shields and perennial Red Sox killer Billy Butler, and the horde of former Red Sox playing for the A's, and the choice is clear. Perhaps it makes us mercenaries, and it certainly makes us bandwagoners, but today, Red Sox Nation may as well be A's Nation.

The Sentimentality of the Jon Lester Trade

©Kayla Chadwick 2012

In pure rational baseball terms, I don't hate the Jon Lester [and Jonny Gomes] for Yoenis Cespedes [and a draft pick] trade. Cespedes is a solid player, Lester's contract extension talks weren't going well, and it's certainly still possible that Lester returns to Boston as a free agent.

But I'm not a baseball fan because I'm rational - and I'm certainly not a Red Sox fan because I'm rational. I fell for this sport and this team in the same head-over-heels, giddy, out of control way that you fall for a first love. Sure, the fact that I was born and raised in New Hampshire made the Sox an obvious choice, but how could you not fall for the classic beauty of Fenway Park? For the fun-loving antics and absolute domination of Pedro Martinez, who dazzled Red Sox fans in his heyday?

Jon Lester didn't come onto the scene until I was already a diehard, but I fell in love with him just the same. Everyone knows Lester's amazing story: touted prospect is diagnosed with cancer, makes a miraculous recovery and returns to the game in time to win the clinching game of the 2007 World Series. Oh, and the very next season he threw a no-hitter, the eighteenth in franchise history.

Lester is a favorite among fans, teammates, and managers. The looks on Lester's and Terry Francona's faces as the two embraced following Lester's no-hitter never fails to make me tear up.

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Even when Lester was part of the infamous Beer and Chicken Incident of 2011, he was one of the only players involved to come forward, admit it was wrong, and work to move past it. He's grown from the rookie who looked up to Josh Beckett to a player John Farrell can point to as an example when pitchers come up through the system. The student has become the teacher.

Sure, Lester has had poor games, and even the odd mediocre season - but he's a good lefthanded pitcher who can be absolutely dominating under the right circumstances. He typically takes responsibility for his mistakes, and gives his teammates ample credit for their contributions to his successes. 

Lester is a fan favorite - and for good reason. He'll certainly help the A's down the stretch, and give Red Sox fans a good reason to watch the playoffs, even though the Sox are all but mathematically eliminated.

Even though the Lester trade makes good baseball sense, it's hard to see him go. He's yet another piece of the 2007 team gone, a home grown player with a story worthy of a blockbuster film, headed to the west coast in the blink of an eye. Sure, he might be back by next Opening Day - but it's just as likely that we'll never see him in a Red Sox uniform again.

Somehow, Lester is more than a baseball player to me (and, I suspect, to many of you). I hope he's successful going forward, that he wins a lot of games down the stretch, and most of all, that he comes home to us over this offseason.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jon Lester

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
2012: 9-14, 33 starts, 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 68 BB, 166 SO
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 211 IP, 3.71 ERA, 75 BB, 192 SO
2013: 15-8, 33 starts, 213.1 IP, 3.75 ERA, 67 BB, 177 SO
2014 projection: 14-9, 32 starts, 3.67 ERA, 71 BB, 193 SO

With the exception of the win-loss record, Bill James was essentially right on the money for Lester in 2013. Sure, Lester had slightly fewer strikeouts than James promised, but overall it was a solid projection of a solid season.

It's hard to believe that this time last year, the Sox brass was rumored to be considering a Lester for Wil Myers trade, and while Myers did well in his 88 games in Tampa Bay, I'm thrilled that we kept Lester.

This year it's Lester looking for a new contract. Rather than showing himself the door, he's looking to stay in Boston long term - but not at the expense of his own earning power:

"Obviously, Boston is my home. This is all I’ve known, all I’ve come accustomed to and all I want to know. My family enjoys it up there I enjoy it up there. There are a lot of factors in it. But at the same time, there’s a business side of it. Kind of like Jacoby [Ellsbury], I have to do what’s best for me and same thing with the Red Sox. Sometimes you have to part ways, hopefully that’s not the case when it comes down to us here in the future."

Lester is a talented left handed pitcher who has proven he can pitch in the AL East in high pressure situations, and as such he might command a longer contract than the Red Sox would be comfortable handing out. 

Hopefully he and the Red Sox can work something out, because the last thing I want is for Lester to perform as Bill James has always projected - for some other team.

ALDS Game 2 Hopes for John Lackey and Co.

[Photo source]

Today is the first ACC football game here at Syracuse University, so of course I'll be there. However, kickoff is at 3:30pm, and Game 2 of the Red Sox/Rays ALDS starts at 5:37pm, so I'll probably leave at halftime to get home in time for my real love in life: baseball.

Yesterday's game was glorious. I won't rehash all of my reactions here (if you want them, check out the premier episode of my new podcast), but I will say that my favorite part of Game 1 was the team-first nature of the victory.

Sure, my favorite player is Dustin Pedroia; anyone who's spent two minutes with me or on this blog could tell you that. Yes, it was awesome that Pedey had the first hit in the Red Sox rally.

But the most incredible thing about yesterday was the most incredible thing about this team: it was truly a collaborative effort. Every Red Sox batter had at least one hit and one run scored. No Red Sox batter had a home run, and all that incredible production was the result of guys getting on base and trusting their compatriots to drive them in.

Jon Lester had an incredible start, and Junichi Tazawa and Ryan Dempster finished the game with barely a hiccup. Fenway aficionado John Lackey takes the mound tonight. The last time Lackey pitched in an ALDS, he took home the win - for the Angels, against Lester in 2009.

Once upon a time, before Tommy John surgery, before the chicken and beer debacle, John Lackey was lauded as a big-game pitcher. The Angels handed him the ball in their biggest moments, and he didn't let them down.

After a tough first few years in Boston, and the beginnings of redemption this season, John Lackey will climb the mound tonight looking to be that big-game guy once again. Earlier this season, I predicted a John Lackey resurgence... hopefully he'll continue to provide evidence for that point of view tonight.

And hopefully his teammates can duplicate some of the offensive fireworks from yesterday against Rays ace David Price. I have a good feeling about tonight.

Workman gets the start

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I can deal with the Red Sox loss from last night, because it came with some indications that Jon Lester might be getting back on track. Lester pitched a quality start, and while he was tagged for the loss, the fact that he made it through 6.1 innings and allowed just three runs gives me hope for the rest of the season.

I suppose it's appropriate for the final start before the All-Star break to go to rookie Brandon Workman, especially in a year full of youthful contributions and surprising successes. Workman made his major league debut just three nights ago, giving up three runs in two innings out of the bullpen, and setting his ERA at an unwieldy 13.50.

Interestingly enough, Workman will face off against 40-year-old Bartolo Colon, the portly pitcher who cut his one Red Sox season short when he hurt himself swinging a bat during interleague play in 2008.

Colon is having his best season in over a decade, so a win tonight could be a tall order for Workman - but after being shut out last night, I have to believe the Red Sox bats are due for some fireworks, so hopefully the rookie will get a hefty amount of run support.

Winning tactics

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Apparently I was mistaken when I assumed that the Red Sox disliked the West Coast as much as I do. Of course, since my hatred for West Coast road trips burns with the intensity of a thousand suns, it would be highly unlikely that anyone could loathe them nearly as much as me. As far as the Sox go, it actually seems like quite the opposite: they haven't lost a game since the day I tried to pin their losing on geography.

Of course, the team has different ideas about what might affect their win-loss record, and it's nowhere near as mundane as simply playing well or poorly. Apparently while in Seattle Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes took a little rendezvous to the famous Pike Place Market for a meal, and brought back a bouquet of flowers as a prank.

The flowers have had a place in the dugout for all four games since then, and the Red Sox have won every single one of them. Jose Iglesias has been assigned the happy task of transporting the flower arrangement from park to bus to plane to park, and has reportedly been successful in keeping the plants alive.

I don't think anyone on the team has delusions that the colorful good luck charm will make it through the All-Star break, but it's likely that it will at least last until tomorrow evening. Given the results of his last few outings, Jon Lester could certainly use all the luck he can get for tonight's start - hopefully the magic of the Pike's Place flowers can last just a little bit longer.

West Coast takes its toll

Source: The Washington Post

Before last night's loss, the Red Sox hadn't lost three games in a row since May 11-14th against the Blue Jays and Rays. The beginning of May was rough on the Sox, as they lost three in a row three separate times in a span of just over two weeks, but the beginning of July isn't shaping up too well, either.

Since making it over to the West Coast, the Red Sox have just one win in four games, and they're playing like they hate the time change as much as I do. The first loss was credited to Craig Breslow, but we all know that the big loser was Andrew Miller, who hurt himself and will be out for the rest of the season.

John Lackey actually pitched very well on Sunday, allowing just two runs in seven innings. Unfortunately, he was charged with a loss because his teammates couldn't get anything done against Angels starter (and Lackey's former teammate) Jered Weaver. Last night was a toss up from the get-go, as Jon Lester has been less than impressive lately, and the Mariners had King Felix Hernandez on the mound.

So who do we look to in order to stop this skid? None other than Allen Webster, the rookie righthander who earned his very first win just last week. It's a tall order, especially since the Mariners will trot out Hisashi Iwakuma, who has seven wins this season to go with a sparkling 2.60 ERA. But the Red Sox bats are due for some firepower after being silenced pretty effectively the past few days. I have faith in Webster, even if I might not have the energy to stay up and watch his entire start. 

Rotation keeps rolling

Photo via NESN

The last time a Red Sox starter didn't turn in a quality start was about a week ago, on June 30th; the team still managed to come away with a win, but starter Ryan Dempster earned a no decision. Since Dempster's last turn in the rotation, all four of his peers have managed to record quality starts (at least six innings pitched and no more than three earned runs allowed), and all but the unlucky Jon Lester also saw their efforts rewarded with a win. 

John Lackey started the run of excellence with a truly outstanding start against the Padres on Tuesday, tossing eight innings and allowing just one run. The next day, Lester pitched seven innings, allowing just a single run, but taking a no-decision. Allen Webster completed the sweep of the Padres on Thursday with six innings pitched, two earned runs allowed, and his first major league win.

Yesterday's game saw Felix Doubront make it through 6.2 innings and give up two earned runs in a win to kick off the ten-day West Coast road trip.  Dempster will look to continue this run of spectacular performances tonight as he faces off against Angels starter Jerome Williams. The usual Angels suspects are those who have fared the best against Dempster in their careers: Albert Pujols is 21-for-60 with eight home runs, Mike Trout is 4-for-10 with one home run, and, interestingly enough, Mark Trumbo is 5-for-10 with a home run.

But Dempster should be able to depend on his teammates, as those who have faced Williams in the past have done pretty well for themselves: Mike Napoli is 6-for-14 with two home runs, Mike Carp is 3-for-10 with no homers but four RBIs, and David Ortiz is 3-for-5 with two home runs. However, I'd hazard a guess that Big Papi might not see too many pitches to hit after his towering homer off of Dane De La Rosa last night clinched the win for the Sox.

It's not as if Dempster's last start was anything to be ashamed off, as he was just two outs shy of a quality start when he was pulled for Craig Breslow, but his teammates have all managed to show him up since then. Obviously Dempster's the kind of player who shows up determined to win, regardless of what his teammates have been up to - but it never hurts to have a little extra motivation.

It's always about the pitching

Jon Lester was less than spectacular last night, but he managed to get the job done, allowing all four Blue Jays runs in seven innings last night in the 7-4 Red Sox victory. Lester departed the mound in the top of the eighth inning with a jammed hip. At the time of the injury, the lefty was at 94 pitches, and could probably have completed the inning if not for the wet mound that caused him to slip.

Luckily for the Red Sox, Lester has reported that he feels fine, and that neither he nor the Sox medical staff is concerned about any long-lasting effects or missing any future starts. Junichi Tazawa took over for Lester and pitched a clean eighth inning before giving way to closer Koji Uehara for the ninth. Uehara faced the minimum number of Jays batters and struck out two of three to earn his third save of the season.

On the Jays' side of things, Chien-Ming Wang couldn't even make it through two innings, retiring just five Red Sox in his shortened outing, and allowing all seven Red Sox runs in the bottom of the second inning before being pulled for reliever Aaron Loup. Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons had to use four relief pitchers to get through the game, which is certainly a boon to the Red Sox as this series still has three games to go, and a tired opposing bullpen is always an advantage.

Hopefully the Red Sox bats can get to Josh Johnson just as quickly as they got to Wang, because rookie righthander Allen Webster will take the mound for the home team tonight, and he was beat up pretty badly by the Tigers in the first inning of his last start before settling in. Webster is the not-so-proud owner of a 11.25 ERA to go with his 0-2 record and is looking to prove himself, though it's common knowledge that his time is limited regardless of performance, as he'll be optioned back to Pawtucket when Clay Buchholz returns.

No rest in the AL East

Every year, there's talk about how good the American League East is going to be. Every year, there's a discussion of how the five AL East teams will wear each other down, that the unbalanced schedule will be the undoing of at least one of them. And every year, something else is the downfall of the basement dwellers and middling performers in the division - usually a bizarre spate of injuries combined with uncharacteristically poor performance from some franchise players.

This year the American League East is insane: every single team is playing above .500, and each one has something to prove. The Yankees have to prove that they can be something without all of the big-name stars they've relied on for so many years. The Red Sox need to prove that September 2011 and 2012 were flukes. The Orioles need to prove that 2012 wasn't a fluke, and that they are the real deal. The Rays must prove that a winning culture is sustainable in a small market (and a crappy stadium). The Blue Jays, of course, are looking to live up to the hype they generated this offseason.

So far, everybody's doing a heck of a job, as the Jays have the worst record of the lot, and they're doing better than fifteen other teams across baseball. In fact, if the currently last place Toronto Blue Jays were playing in the NL East or the NL West, their record would be good enough for second place. Doubtless the Blue Jays would be doing even better if they hadn't lost some key players to injury in the early part of the season, but they seem to be making up for lost time in the last two weeks, winning 12 of 14 contests headed into this weekend's series.

The Red Sox, of course, are coming off a two-game sweep of the Rockies (themselves playing above .500 until traveling to Boston), and have the recently struggling Jon Lester opening the series on the mound. The Jays will trot out Chien-Ming Wang, recently of the Nationals, but I'll always think of him as a Yankee. Wang pitched in the Bronx from 2005-2009, and there are a number of Red Sox players who have performed well against him.

Dustin Pedroia has hit .278 against Wang in 19 plate apprearences, including a home run and three doubles. Shane Victorino is 2-for-6. Most impressively, David Ortiz has done better than any other single (active) batter, hitting .432 (16-for-37) with four doubles, two home runs, and eleven RBIs against Wang, which coud be key if Jon Lester turns in another start like the last few.

It should go without saying that with Clay Buchholz's status so uncertain, the Red Sox really need Lester to return to the form he displayed earlier this season. Ideally, he would get back on track tonight, starting the weekend series with a dominant performance and a win - I'm sure David Ortiz is chomping at the bit to give him some run support.

Aceves successfully steps in

Not even three weeks ago, I had to write a post apologizing to Alfedo Aceves, because I had predicted the worst from him. I'll happily apologize when players prove me wrong, and here we are again. Last night, when a large portion of Red Sox Nation was tuned into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, Aceves earned a win down in Tampa Bay.

The performance from the oft-maligned and sometimes volatile Aceves was much appreciated, as his six innings went further toward resting the bullpen than Lester's 4.2 the night before. Sure it would have been nice to see Aces go deeper into the game, but the battered bullpen managed to piece together the final three innings to get the win.

Aceves night was better than many he's had in recent starts (excepting the last time I had to apologize to him, when he was quite good), as he allowed just a single run (a solo homer) and scattered four hits and four walks in his six innings. WEEI is speculating that his newfound success has something to do with the fact that he's stopped shaking off signs from the catcher.

Whatever it is, Aces should keep doing it. He might need to make another appearance soon, if Clay Buchholz needs more time, or if we discover that Lester's struggles are caused by an underlying injury. Of course, I'd love nothing more than for the Red Sox rotation to stay completely healthy so Aceves won't be needed - but I'm not so naive to think that's a reasonable expectation. 

Lester falls short, De La Torre picks up the slack

The Red Sox really need Jon Lester to pitch late into last night's game, and he couldn't come through. To his credit, he took total responsibility for his struggles, and AAA call-up Jose De La Torre came in and was able to finish out the game on 52 pitches, earning Lester's thanks.

The fallout from Monday's ridiculous 14 inning victory will continue tonight, as Alfredo Aceves will take the mound for what should have been a Franklin Morales start until Morales ended up pitching the final two innings on Monday.  Thanks to De La Torre, the bullpen has had at least one day to recover, though given the amount of work some of the arms have had lately, and the age of some of the bullpen pitchers (Koji Uehara, I'm looking at you), they could probably use another.

But there are going to be rough spots in any season - and this season has had far fewer rough spots than last year, so I won't complain too much. The Red Sox have more wins than any other team in the American League, and only the St Louis Cardinals (42-22) have more in the NL. The Sox have a rough stretch coming up, with a few series against AL East opponents, and games against the first place Tigers and second place Rockies.

It would be great if Aceves could get things back on track tonight, as he certainly has something to prove to the team who demoted him to the minors, but I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't happen. Although I was wrong in my predictions for Lester yesterday, so hopefully I'll be wrong about Aceves today.

Bullpen in shambles after extra innings win

Last night's game was like an episode of the Twilight Zone. After the Red Sox supplied a six-run lead to starter John Lackey right off the bat, he gave up four runs in the five and two-thirds innings he pitched. Though Lackey left the game in line for a win (after hitting the showboating Matt Joyce with a pitch and clearing the benches), the Rays tied the game at six in the bottom of the eighth inning.

The game ended up lasting 14 innings and nearly five and a half hours, and by the end those of us still awake and watching started to get a little loopy. Twitter turned into an even stranger place than usual, as Red Sox fans lost our sanity bit by bit. Thing were briefly ahead by two runs in the top of the tenth inning, but the Rays tied it up again in the bottom of the frame when Andrew Bailey allowed a home run, two walks, and an RBI single.

Things stayed tied up at eight apiece until the top of the fourteenth inning. Shane Victorino scored the winning run after some heads-up base running and an RBI single from Nava. Jarrod Saltalamacchia singled in Nava for an insurance run, but the Sox wouldn't need it, as Franklin Morales (who had come in to start the thirteenth inning, sacrificing his Wednesday start) allowed a single but no runs to finally cement a win for the Red Sox.

The win, though as exciting as it was exhausting, left the bullpen in shambles. The Red Sox will have to make a few moves to cover the players who will be unavailable for a game or two, as well as to get someone who can start on Wednesday after Morales took one for the team early this morning - although he did earn himself a win two days early and with just 35 pitches, so there's that.

Peter Abraham has outlined the specifics of the pitching conundrum over at the Boston.com Extra Bases Blog - basically, it looks like Clayton Mortensen might be headed for the disabled list to make some space on the roster, and it's likely that Alfredo Aceves will take Morales' start on Wednesday. Regardless of how the roster configuration shakes out, it's super important that Jon Lester has a fantastic start tonight. The Sox need a lot of innings tonight more than any other point this season, and I have great confidence in Jon Lester.

Sox fall to Yankees

It's always rough to go into Yankee Stadium and lose the opening game of a series - especially when your ace faces off against their ace and theirs comes out on top. Sadly for the Red Sox, starter Jon Lester had flashes of brilliance where he sent Yankee after Yankee back to the dugout, but his few lapses were more than enough as CC Sabathia gave up just a single run in seven and a third innings.

Though the Sox kept things interesting in the ninth inning, with back-to-back hits by Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz with just one out, Mike Napoli struck out and then Stephen Drew grounded the ball back to Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who made the play to end the game. Dustin Pedroia scored the only run for the Red Sox in the seventh inning, and had three hits on the night, continuing to tear things up on the field despite the UCL tear in his left hand.

The Sox know as well as anyone that if you leave your scoring against the Yankees untl the end of the game, it's likely that your chances will be limited. Mariano Rivera is legendary for a reason, and he doesn't blow many save opportunities. Tonight was no exception, even though the Sox managed to bring the tying run to the plate.

The Red Sox will still maintain sole possession of first place even after losing tonight's game to the Yankees - but the Yanks do pick up a full game in the standings, trailing the Sox by just a single game with two more games to play in this weekend series. Tomorrow's game will see Felix Doubront facing off against Phil Hughes.

Unbeaten Buchholz

Since the White Sox have revealed themselves as Jon Lester's kryptonite, and the Red Sox nearly got no-hit last night (even as often-struggling Felix Doubront had a surprisingly solid night), we turn to Clay Buchholz to avoid getting swept. The Red Sox have been swept only once this season, against the first place Rangers in Texas, and nobody wants to repeat that experience - especially at the hands of the fourth place, under .500 White Sox.

After Lester's less-than-impressive performance on Monday, Buchholz is the last unbeaten pitcher in the Red Sox rotation, with a current record of 6-0. It's been rocky at times for Buchholz, not really because of anything he's done wrong, but because some of the people watching can't believe he's so good.

But thankfully, all of the ridiculous cheating accusations have faded away, and anyone whose opinion matters in baseball will tell you that Buchholz isn't doctoring the ball, he's just mowing down batters with sheer talent. Hopefully he'll keep that going tonight, because it's one thing to get swept by the Rangers, and quite another to suffer the same fate at the hands of the White Sox.

Lester stumbles in Chicago

For a few wonderful moments in the top of the seventh inning, it looked like the Red Sox bats were going to bail out Jon Lester. With the Red Sox trailing 6-2 to the White Sox, Will Middlebrooks came to the plate with nobody out and two men on base, and doubled to left field scoring David Ortiz and Mike Napoli.

Sadly, four runs were all the Red Sox could muster, and it wasn't enough on a night when Jon Lester didn't have it. It's something of a pattern for Lester against Chicago's AL team, as the lefty is just 4-5 in his career with a 5.43 ERA in ten starts - much below his career stats against all teams, 91-49 with a 3.73 ERA.

It's actually reassuring that Lester has a pattern of mediocrity against the White Sox - I'd much rather have him predictably struggle against this one team than have last night's performance be a harbinger of things to come. A one-time poor start that can be explained is preferable to a mysterious downward spiral any day of the week, and though Lester's chokefest seriously damaged my fantasy stats, I'm confident that he'll make it up to me in his next outing.

Lester and #DrewCrew lead the charge

Jon Lester came through tonight, getting the win in a much needed Red Sox victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, David Price is killing my fantasy team, but since I also have Lester on the roster, I guess it all balances out.

The oft-maligned Stephen Drew was a key part of the victory, as he crushed a grand slam in the third inning. The Sox would score eight runs total in the third, batting through their entire order in an explosion of offensive production - and ousting Price from the game early on. Will Middlebrooks added a solo homer in the top of the eight inning.

Lester went seven innings and allowed two earned runs on eight hits, no walks, and recorded five strikeouts. It would be great for the Red Sox if Felix Doubront could keep this momentum going tomorrow, especially since both the Yankees and the Orioles lost this evening (to the Mariners and the Padres, respectively).

Sad loss on a soggy night

The Red Sox seem determined to reverse the success they had in April. Last month it seemed like everything that could go right, went right - so far in May it seems like everything that can go wrong, has gone wrong. After getting swept by the Rangers in Texas, the Red Sox returned home to lose three out of four to the lowly Twins.

Last night's game was particularly painful, as the Sox were in the lead, and the newly repaired John Lackey was looking solid - until he made a throwing error on a play that should have had him out of the inning, but instead led to four unearned runs and an eventual Red Sox loss. [In terms of scoring, and on a mostly unrelated note, I think that if it's a pitcher's error, they should be earned runs.]

If Jon Lester can't stop this skid, nobody can, and since the Twins are departing in favor of the Blue Jays, against whom the Red Sox are 4-2 this season, this is as good a time as any to turn things around. Lester will be going up against Ramon Ortiz, who so far in 2013 claims an ERA of 5.40, more than two full runs higher than Lester's.

The Blue Jays were slated to be a powerhouse in the AL East, while the Red Sox were supposed to be stragglers - so far, that's not the case. Given some of the early season injuries to key Blue Jays players, it's unlikely that Toronto will take the division - but there's certainly time for the Red Sox to fall back to the bottom. They need to pull themselves out of the funk they seem to be in, and tonight is an excellent time to start.

Can you believe it?

Even after last night's loss to the Rangers, the Red Sox still have two more wins than any other team in baseball. A month into the season, the Sox are in first place in the AL East, two-and-a-half games up on the second place Yankees. Especially after the misery of last season, this start has been wonderful for Red Sox fan - especially those of us who live in the city and can take advantage of low ticket prices.

I don't for a minute expect tickets to stay affordable for long, especially if the Red Sox continue anywhere close to the pace they're on. And despite the stuggles from Felix Doubront that we've been seeing, the core of the pitching staff is as solid as can be - led by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.

Though the crazy production we've been seeing from David Ortiz (.465 batting average in eleven games) is certainly unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit well over .300 for the season. Mike Napoli is taking to first base like a fish to water, and in his first season where he doesn't spend a ton of time crouching behind the plate, his offensive numbers - and the Red Sox - are the beneficiaries.

You never really know how a season will shake out - in 2011, we had a team proclaimed the "greatest ever" during spring training, and then suffered through the worst collapse in history in September. This year, expectations were tempered, to say the least, but the Sox have the best record in baseball so far. I'll leave you with one final thought: the last time the Red Sox had the best April record was 2007 - and before that, 2004.