Koji Time

Source

At the beginning of the season, I had Joel Hanrahan on my fantasy team. I had high hopes for Hanrahan, but even when he went down, I wasn't worried about the closer situation. If you're guessing I added Andrew Bailey to my fantasy team, you'd be correct - but I also added Koji Uehara.

It's goes without saying that my best add was certainly the last one, as we all know about Uehara's incredible numbers since taking over the ninth inning.

Uehara's brilliance hasn't gone unnoticed by his teammates either. Fellow pitcher Craig Breslow is blogging over at WEEI for the duration of the playoffs, and here's what he had to say:

But what he’s done is absolutely unbelievable. John Lackey and I were joking, why don’t we just start him and see how long he can go? If it’s three or four innings and 15 to 20 pitches and he gets tired, then we’ll worry about bringing somebody in behind him.

The best perspective on his stuff has got to come from a hitter because the way I see it, his stuff seems very pedestrian. It seems almost like, ‘Huh, maybe I can mess around with a splitter and get a pitch like that.’ Then you see the swings that guys take and you see the results that he’s gotten — not over an inning or two innings but 75 innings. I think collectively we’re all missing something, because the swings that guys take at that pitch are like he’s throwing a wiffleball.

Every time the rest of the Sox pitching staff can hand the ball safely to Koji Uehara at the end of each game, I'm confident in our chances. Gone are the days of heart-attack innings from Jonathan Papelbon circa 2011, or the nightmarishly unpredictable antics of Alfredo Aceves in 2012.

No, 2013 is different. It's Koji time - High Five City.

Aceves successfully steps in

Not even three weeks ago, I had to write a post apologizing to Alfedo Aceves, because I had predicted the worst from him. I'll happily apologize when players prove me wrong, and here we are again. Last night, when a large portion of Red Sox Nation was tuned into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, Aceves earned a win down in Tampa Bay.

The performance from the oft-maligned and sometimes volatile Aceves was much appreciated, as his six innings went further toward resting the bullpen than Lester's 4.2 the night before. Sure it would have been nice to see Aces go deeper into the game, but the battered bullpen managed to piece together the final three innings to get the win.

Aceves night was better than many he's had in recent starts (excepting the last time I had to apologize to him, when he was quite good), as he allowed just a single run (a solo homer) and scattered four hits and four walks in his six innings. WEEI is speculating that his newfound success has something to do with the fact that he's stopped shaking off signs from the catcher.

Whatever it is, Aces should keep doing it. He might need to make another appearance soon, if Clay Buchholz needs more time, or if we discover that Lester's struggles are caused by an underlying injury. Of course, I'd love nothing more than for the Red Sox rotation to stay completely healthy so Aceves won't be needed - but I'm not so naive to think that's a reasonable expectation. 

Bullpen in shambles after extra innings win

Last night's game was like an episode of the Twilight Zone. After the Red Sox supplied a six-run lead to starter John Lackey right off the bat, he gave up four runs in the five and two-thirds innings he pitched. Though Lackey left the game in line for a win (after hitting the showboating Matt Joyce with a pitch and clearing the benches), the Rays tied the game at six in the bottom of the eighth inning.

The game ended up lasting 14 innings and nearly five and a half hours, and by the end those of us still awake and watching started to get a little loopy. Twitter turned into an even stranger place than usual, as Red Sox fans lost our sanity bit by bit. Thing were briefly ahead by two runs in the top of the tenth inning, but the Rays tied it up again in the bottom of the frame when Andrew Bailey allowed a home run, two walks, and an RBI single.

Things stayed tied up at eight apiece until the top of the fourteenth inning. Shane Victorino scored the winning run after some heads-up base running and an RBI single from Nava. Jarrod Saltalamacchia singled in Nava for an insurance run, but the Sox wouldn't need it, as Franklin Morales (who had come in to start the thirteenth inning, sacrificing his Wednesday start) allowed a single but no runs to finally cement a win for the Red Sox.

The win, though as exciting as it was exhausting, left the bullpen in shambles. The Red Sox will have to make a few moves to cover the players who will be unavailable for a game or two, as well as to get someone who can start on Wednesday after Morales took one for the team early this morning - although he did earn himself a win two days early and with just 35 pitches, so there's that.

Peter Abraham has outlined the specifics of the pitching conundrum over at the Boston.com Extra Bases Blog - basically, it looks like Clayton Mortensen might be headed for the disabled list to make some space on the roster, and it's likely that Alfredo Aceves will take Morales' start on Wednesday. Regardless of how the roster configuration shakes out, it's super important that Jon Lester has a fantastic start tonight. The Sox need a lot of innings tonight more than any other point this season, and I have great confidence in Jon Lester.

My apologies to Alfredo Aceves

I'd like to take this moment to offer a sincere apology to Alfredo Aceves. In yesterday's post, I insinuated that his performance in tonight's game would be inferior to the start that we were supposed to have from Clay Buchholz - and I stand by that assertion, as Clay has been phenomenal this season. However, I also suggested that Aceves would be unable to pitch the Red Sox to a win, and I couldn't have been more wrong.

Aceves scattered seven hits over six innings, allowing just a single run from the Phillies (a homer) and striking out four. Despite my disparaging remarks about the unpredictable Aceves, he pitched well and made some pretty good plays defensively, as well as one pretty egregious error. The Red Sox bats got to Phillies' starter Tyler Cloyd early and often, tagging the righthander for six runs in just two and a third innings, and getting deep into the bullpen.

The visiting Phillies needed six pitchers to get through the game, putting some serious strain on the bullpen in the very first game of the series. Despite the fact that this series is just two games long, the Red Sox will head to Philadelphia for another two-game set directly after this one, and it bodes well that the Phillies' bullpen has already been seriously tested.

The hazards of fatherhood

On the list of reasons why a pitcher can have his start skipped, sleeping wrong because of his infant daughter might simultaneously be one of the cutest and most infuriating. Apparently Clay Buchholz slept through the night cradling his young daughter in his arms after his last start, and it irritated his shoulder enough to warrant a skipped start tomorrow.

Needless to say, that's wicked cute. I don't even want kids, and I still find dads with babies to be adorable - and though I have a hard time reconciling what I see of Buchholz on the field with someone who dotes on a baby, it's at least reassuring that there aren't any long term structural issues to worry about.

But I am somewhat annoyed - I mean, who wants to watch the enigmatic Alfredo Aceves try to get us a win in the first interleague game of season when we should be watching Buchholz go for his eighth win? The only silver lining is that I'm in a dead heat with this week's fantasy baseball opponent, and he has Buchholz on his roster.

Since Phillies' starter Tyler Cloyd has a 2.70 ERA to Aceves 8.20, tomorrow's game might be a rough one. But that's the beauty of baseball: on any given day, any pitcher can beat any other pitcher, and any team can beat any other team - and the only way to know for sure is to watch.

Aceves approaching his end?

The only good thing to be said for last night's game was that it got called in the seventh inning. Alfredo Aceves struggled mightily, and while he was correct that the conditions were less than ideal, old friend Bartolo Colon was pitching in the same rainy weather and managed seven scoreless innings.

Luckily for the Red Sox, John Lackey is supposed to be back this Sunday, and will make a second run at his first win of the season - perhaps the reemergence of a (hopefully healthy) Lackey will finally mean the door for Aceves. Given Aceves' maddening inconsistency paired with his inability to take responsibility for his bad performances, it's increasingly obvious that he's not what this team needs in terms of chemistry.

Daniel Bard has been recalled from AA Portland, and will be in the bullpen this evening - if the former heir-apparent to Jonathan Papelbon can get his feet back underneath him in the bigs, Aceves' services might no longer be needed. Jon Lester starts tonight, and he's just the man I want on the mound after the abysmal performance the Sox turned in last night; he should be able togo deep into the game and spare the bullpen after last night's debacle.

"Sellout" streak officially over

As awful as it was to watch last night's meltdown from Joel Hanrahan, there was a kind of poetic justice about the whole situation. It was the first officially un-soldout game in nearly a decade, and it somehow seemed to mirror the tendencies of the Red Sox over the last couple of years.

Things started off pretty evenly, as the Orioles scored, the Red Sox evened the score, and then the Red Sox pulled ahead by two runs - but the Orioles closed the gap heading into the rain delay. I know I came into the game with high hopes, after seeing the Sox dispose of the Orioles on Opening Day.

The first part of the game was like a microcosm of the 2011 season: the Sox got off to a 0-6 start, but managed to pull themselves out and back into contention by midseason, just as last night's squad fell behind but stayed within reach of a win by the rain delay. Post rain delay, Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit two home runs, resulting in jubilation among the Fenway faithful, much like the incredible summer we enjoyed in 2011.

And then Hanrahan came on to close things out. After Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Andrew Bailey each pitched a scoreless inning, Hanrahan came in and couldn't close the deal - like the September 2011 meltdown of the entire Red Sox pitching staff (and, even more specifically, then-closer Jonathan Papelbon's personal meltdown against the Orioles on the last day of the season).

Andrew Miller managed to come in and get the last out, but then the Red Sox could not score in the bottom of the ninth - an exercise in futility that resembled 2012 in its entirety.

And so whether you buy my metaphor, last night was the beginning of a new era for the Red Sox. Hopefully the end of the "sellout streak" (which was fraudulent by the end, let's be honest) can be a clean slate for the Sox. Even after last night's loss, the Red Sox are still in first place in the AL East. Alfredo Aceves takes the mound tonight for the series finale, and while I wouldn't have chosen him as the tone-setter, he definitely has something to prove.

John Lackey officially placed on the DL

John Lackey has officially been placed on the disabled list, retroactive to April 7th, after straining his right bicep in Toronto. Alfredo Aceves will start in his place tomorrow, and will take his slot in the rotation until he can make his return.

Thankfully, the recovery time for a strain like this is much, much shorter than the yearlong recovery from Tommy John surgery that Lackey had just completed. It's a real shame to lose John Lackey to a fluke injury like this, after all of his hard work getting back on the field, and especially because of the solid outing he was turning in against the Blue Jays at the time.

But the way things looked Saturday when Lackey grabbed at his arm and left the game in the middle of an at-bat, the 15-day DL is getting off easy. If Lackey can come back in two weeks and pitch the way he was pitching this weekend, I think it's safe to say that we all dodged a bullet. This is really hurting my fantasy team, but I think I can recover.

Cautious optimism for Lackey

When John Lackey clutched his right arm in the bottom of the fifth inning, I panicked. Though it was pretty obvious that the problem wasn't his surgically repaired elbow, things looked very serious as the heckled John Farrell (stay classy, Toronto) ushered Lackey off the field. 

I had predicted a season of redemption for Lackey early in spring training, and he was pitching like he meant to prove me right, with eight strikeouts through four and a third innings - indeed, his only mistake was a homerun to J.P. Arencibia. If only the Sox had managed any offense at all, things would have looked pretty promising.

As the game went on (and reliever Alfredo Aceves ensured that a win was out of the question), we got the news that Lackey had to leave with "right biceps strain." Afterwards, both Farrell and Lackey expressed optimism, though anything definite will have to wait for an exam in Boston.  Lackey compared the feeling to a severe hamstring cramp, "It's all in the bicep, wasn't elbow. Pretty frustrating, a little scary when it happened for sure."

Lackey also reported that he felt better almost as soon as he made it to the clubhouse, and teammates Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester were reassured once they chatted with him. I have to say that one of the most disappointing things about the situation were the jokes about it on Twitter. I don't care how much you dislike a player, joking about an injury is never funny.

The good news is that Lackey seems to be mostly alright. Severe strains can come with muscle tears and possible surgery - or it could be minor enough that Lackey just needs some rest, and he could make his next start. Here's hoping it's the latter.

Aceves back in camp

In case (by some miracle) you haven't seen this yet, I give you the video of the brawl that took place between the Mexico and Canada World Baseball Classic teams. As far as baseball brawls go, this one is actually pretty intense - less standing around and puffing up of chests and more actual contact than I'm used to seeing. Who knew Canadians harbored that much aggression?

In totally unsurprising news, Red Sox pitcher Alfredo Aceves was mixing it up with Canada's Tyson Gillies, a player he'd never met:

"What can I say? It didn't surprise me. He threw me to the floor. I stood up and I reacted, too," Aceves said. "I didn't do nothing to him. I was just calming [others] down. The fighting was with the pitcher and the hitter. I was saying, 'Calm down, man. Calm down. Come on. Calm down.' He just grabbed me and threw me on the floor. I was like, 'I want to throw you on the floor.' Then when I jumped in to this guy, I got seven guys against me.  You’re locked in. You’re just trying to defend and knock them out. That’s it. We were trying to [defend] ourselves. We didn’t do nothing to him. He just threw me," he said.

Mexico has been eliminated from the WBC, and Aceves is back in camp, relatively unharmed and ready to pitch. Given Aceves' history of surliness and griping about his role, it will be interesting to see how things pan out in camp: though he has always wanted a spot in the rotation, there's simply no room. He'll probably end up in the bullpen, in a much less glamorous spot than last year, and hopefully he'll handle that with some maturity.

The Red Sox and the World Baseball Classic

There's less buzz about the World Baseball Classic among Red Sox fans this time around than there has been in the past - mostly because far fewer Red Sox players are among the participants.  In 2009, the Sox lent out David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Marco Scutaro to various teams, while this year the Sox major league players at the WBC are limited to Shane Victorino and Alfredo Aceves.

Aceves, playing for Mexico, and Victorino, playing for the USA, are both in Pool D for the first round, and are playing in Phoenix, Arizona. It's likely that at least one of them will advance to the second round, which will be played in Miami, and should USA or Mexico make the semifinals and finals, they'll be headed out to AT&T Park in San Francisco. If you want more detailed info about this year's World Baseball Classic, check out this awesome infographic from MLB.

Former Red Sox Daisuke Matsuzaka was the MVP in the 2006 and 2009 tournaments, leading Japan to the title in both of the first two WBCs. However, the thirty-two year old pitcher is not on Japan's roster this year, guaranteeing that there will be a new MVP for the first time in the WBC's short history. My money is still on Japan to take the whole thing, but I couldn't begin to make an MVP projection.

The Red Sox will face off against the Puerto Rican WBC team in an exhibition tonight at JetBlue Park. John Lackey will start the game for the Red Sox, but he is just one of five Sox pitchers scheduled to get his work in during the contest.

2013 Bill James Projections - Alfredo Aceves

2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
2012: 2-10, 84 IP, 31 BB, 75 SO, 5.36 ERA, 25 saves
2013 projection: 5-5, 88 IP, 33 BB, 67 SO, 3.68 ERA, 0 saves

Alfredo Aceves was never supposed to be the closer last season. But Andrew Bailey went and got seriously injured in spring training, and Aceves was the best option at the time, though he made it clear (repeatedly, and in no uncertain terms) that he greatly disliked the bullpen, and wanted to be a starter.

He's certainly in little danger of being asked to be the permanent closer, as the Red Sox have signed Joel Hanrahan and retained the now-healthy Bailey.  Unfortunately for Aceves, the starting rotation is looking rather full as well, with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront.

So Aceves and his attitude are likely to get pushed into the bullpen, where his role will have even less glory and earning potential than it did as a closer, because middle-relief, long-relief, eighth-inning guys, and mop-up men are indeed the UNSUNG heroes of a ballclub: you can't survive the season without them, but they don't usually get a lot of credit.

It remains to be seen whether Aceves will be able to take such a demotion, or if he'll demand a starting role or a trade. Alfredo is a very talented pitcher with some great stuff, but there's a reason that the Yankees weren't clamoring for him back (and it's not because they always look for pricier alternatives).

Escaping the Carnage of the World Baseball Classic?

According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox may send just two of their major leaguers to the World Baseball Classic this year, with the possibility that both Alfredo Aceves (Mexico), and Shane Victorino (USA) will participate. This is a striking change for the Red Sox, who sent a much larger array of players to the 2006 and 2009 WBC.

The 2009 tournament particularly affected the Red Sox, because after Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched Team Japan to its second WBC title (and himself to its MVP), he was on and off the disabled list for the entire MLB season. The Red Sox did get some amusement out of that year's WBC, as Kevin Youkilis restyled his famous goatee:

And we all had some mixed feelings about the brand new bromance between Red Sox second baseman and all around dirt dog Dustin Pedroia and Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter - I mean, I know the tournament is supposed to be about forging connection, but come on!

And for what? The USA finished fourth in the 2009 WBC, because most US players feel their first allegiance is to the team that pays them (and MLB), while in Japan, playing for the national team is a huge honor.

And so I predict that this year, like every World Baseball Classic thus far, Japan will take home the first place, and Daisuke Matsuzaka might even claim his third MVP (though the rosters haven't been announced yet, so no guarantee he's playing). But for the Red Sox, the effect the tournament has on spring training and the 2013 season should be (thankfully) minimized.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

I'M BACK!

And, in more exciting news, so are the Red Sox.  Despite the fact that the local nine only managed to split yesterday's doubleheader, they're still tied for first place in the AL East.  After that brutal beginning, who would have thought we'd recover by Memorial Day?

Admittedly, we owe some thanks to the Yankees and the Rays (and all of their successful opponents, of course) for dragging their feet out of the gate, as well.  Somehow, we've survived injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey, and while Lackey looks to be on his way back soonish, there are whispers of Tommy John surgery for Matsuzaka.

Tito claims that surgery is not a possibility, but there's also no word as to when the enigma will be returning.  Luckily, Alfredo Aceves and Tim Wakefield have been performing admirably in the meantime.  Each of these "placeholders" have notched two wins already this season, and it will be interesting to see who gets pushed into the bullpen when Lackey makes his (hopefully) triumphant return.

My bet is on Aceves, since he's the more conventional hurler, and Wakefield has made it known in recent years how he feels about the bullpen.  We all know about Tito's loyalty to his veterans, and Wake is the capital-"V" veteran of this team.

Whatever happens, I'm just SO HAPPY to be back home where I can watch EVERY Red Sox game on NESN on my very own TV, where I don't have to fight with the internet of MLB.tv, and where I can't go anywhere without seeing somebody wearing a Sox hat. Home sweet home, indeed.