2014 Bill James Projections - Koji Uehara

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2011: 2-3, 65 games, 0 saves, 65 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9 BB, 85 SO
2012 projection: 5-2, 62 games, 0 saves, 58 IP, 2.64 ERA, 8 BB, 55 SO
2012: 0-0, 37 games, 1 save, 36 IP, 1.75 ERA, 3 BB, 43 SO
2013 projection: 3-1, 43 games, 4 saves, 40 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6 BB, 39 SO
2013: 4-1, 73 games, 21 saves, 74.1 IP, 1.09 ERA, 9 BB, 101 SO
2014 projection: 6-2, 69 games, 23 saves, 75 IP, 1.80 ERA, 9 BB, 82 SO

I think it's fair to forgive the total lack of accuracy from The Bill James Handbook's 2013 projections for Koji Uehara. After all, heading into the season, Uehara wasn't even on the radar as a possible closer, as we had Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey seemingly ready to go.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Red Sox would not have won the World Series without Uehara in the closer spot. Beyond the absolutely lights out season he had numbers-wise, Uehara was one of many spiritual centers of the team, earning the nickname "High Five City" by midsummer.

I know I can't be the only Red Sox fan who was intimidated by Uehara's post-save celebration antics: every time he charged triumphantly off the mound I was sure he was going to fracture his hand with the ferocity of his high fives.

But Uehara remained safe, sound, and absolutely dominant to the very end. His ERA was just over a run, and his BB/SO ratio was unreal (though to be fair, that's been consistent throughout his career).

It's possible that Uehara might have a bit of a backslide in 2014: he tossed a lot of innings last year, and at his age that might wear on him. However, it's obvious that trying to predict the greatness that is Koji Uehara is futile, so I'll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Koji Time

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At the beginning of the season, I had Joel Hanrahan on my fantasy team. I had high hopes for Hanrahan, but even when he went down, I wasn't worried about the closer situation. If you're guessing I added Andrew Bailey to my fantasy team, you'd be correct - but I also added Koji Uehara.

It's goes without saying that my best add was certainly the last one, as we all know about Uehara's incredible numbers since taking over the ninth inning.

Uehara's brilliance hasn't gone unnoticed by his teammates either. Fellow pitcher Craig Breslow is blogging over at WEEI for the duration of the playoffs, and here's what he had to say:

But what he’s done is absolutely unbelievable. John Lackey and I were joking, why don’t we just start him and see how long he can go? If it’s three or four innings and 15 to 20 pitches and he gets tired, then we’ll worry about bringing somebody in behind him.

The best perspective on his stuff has got to come from a hitter because the way I see it, his stuff seems very pedestrian. It seems almost like, ‘Huh, maybe I can mess around with a splitter and get a pitch like that.’ Then you see the swings that guys take and you see the results that he’s gotten — not over an inning or two innings but 75 innings. I think collectively we’re all missing something, because the swings that guys take at that pitch are like he’s throwing a wiffleball.

Every time the rest of the Sox pitching staff can hand the ball safely to Koji Uehara at the end of each game, I'm confident in our chances. Gone are the days of heart-attack innings from Jonathan Papelbon circa 2011, or the nightmarishly unpredictable antics of Alfredo Aceves in 2012.

No, 2013 is different. It's Koji time - High Five City.

Exactly as planned

Last night's game went as well as you could hope (excepting Andrew Bailey's seventh inning struggles), as the red hot Red Sox bats managed to oust Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson just one out into the fourth inning. Meanwhile, rookie Allen Webster managed to lower his abysmal 11.25 ERA to a merely terrible 9.50 with six innings pitched and four earned runs allowed.

Webster did improve upon his last outing, allowing six hits in six innings, as opposed to 8 hits in just 4.1 innings last week in Detroit, and he showed pretty good control in last night's game, walking just two batters and striking out three. Webster is definitely improving, and as this was his first season playing even as high as AAA, I'd say he has a very bright future; indeed, he's making me feel woefully unaccomplished, as the righthander is nearly a month younger than I am, and already a big league pitcher.

Webster departed in the sixth inning with a lead, looking to earn his first major league win, but Andrew Bailey came in and recorded two strikeouts before allowing a two-out home run to Edwin Encarnacion, tying the game and erasing Webster as the pitcher of record. Andrew Miller pitched the end of the seventh and the eighth, earning himself a win when Jonny Gomes put the Red Sox on top for good with a pinch hit RBI single, followed by a Jarrod Saltalamachia walk that forced in an insurance run.

For the third day in a row, Koji Uehara, aptly described by Globe reported Peter Abraham as "the game's most exitable 38-year-old," earned the save and copious high fives from his teammates, coaches, translators, and training staff.  Unfortunately for the Jays, their bullpen didn't come through to the extent that Boston's did, as they needed five pitchers to get through the final 4.2 innings.

You really couldn't script things much better than this from the Red Sox point of view, as they've already guaranteed themselves the series split with two games to go. They're still in line for a four-game sweep of a division rival, and they've put themselves in good position to win the final two games, as they've pretty effectively abused the Jays bullpen for two straight days.

Another blown save for Bailey

After a strange last outing in which he blew the save and then was credited with the win (sometimes baseball rules are weird), Andrew Bailey looked to redeem himself this evening. He came on with a one-run lead, and promptly allowed a walk off homer to Jhonny Peralta. John Lackey pitched very well - much like Felix Doubront did on Tuesday - but could not claim the win because Bailey couldn't lock it down.

So now what? The Red Sox started the season with a surplus of closing options, but now Joel Hanrahan has had season-ending surgery and Andrew Bailey has blown two saves in a row. Any baseball fan around my age or older remembers what a catastrophic failure the "closer by committee" experiment was, but there is no obvious Plan C if Bailey's troubles can't be straightened out.

Junichi Tazawa has a few saves to his credit this season, but in my opinion there's more value in his current role, able to go out and pitch multiple innings on a pretty regular basis. Koji Uehara is always fun to watch, and he clearly thrives on the adrenaline rush of a successful single inning, displaying what could be defined as the "closer's mentality, but you have to be concerned by Uehara's age: the 38-year-old righty can't pitch multiple days in a row.

The Red Sox bullpen has some pretty intriguing and successful arms, but they all work so well where they are - aside from the recent spate of blown saves, the 'pen has been a clear strength this season. There's talk about looking to trade for a closer, and if/when Will Middlebrooks gets his bat up to speed, Stephen Drew could be interesting trade bait. One thing is certain: if Andrew Bailey can't get his act together, he can't be the Red Sox closer much longer.

A blown save and a walkoff win

Felix Doubront deserved a win tonight. Sure, there were a few times this year when Doubront got to claim a "W" by the grace of god and unreasonably quality run support, but he was most certainly cheated this evening.

After eight shutout innings, Doubront could have reasonably returned to the mound to pitch the ninth - his pitch count was at 93 pitches - but John Farrell called for the closer, instead. And Andrew Bailey couldn't get it done. He gave up the game-tying home run on the second pitch of the inning, and that was that for Doubront's win bid.

It was a strange day for baseball all around, as the afternoon game (already a makeup game after inclement weather in April) included a three hour rain delay. It felt somewhat like there were three separate games played at Fenway Park today, what with the long baseball-less stretch between the first half of the day game and its conclusion, and then the nightcap with all it's shenanigans.

Thankfully for the Red Sox (and the otherwise disgraced Andrew Bailey), Jonny Gomes absolutely CRUSHED a two-run walkoff homer in the bottom of the ninth inning, allowing the Red Sox to take both games today. Of course, that doesn't deliver justice to Felix Doubront, as he'll still be saddled with a no-decision after what can only be termed as an incredible start. Here's hoping there's more performances like that in his future - albeit with better outcomes.

Koji Uehara with the save

Koji Uehara is way too much fun. Every time Uehara gets out of an inning, he requests (and receives) high fives from everybody on the team, coaches, players, training staff, and translators. Last night, when Uehara earned his first save of the season in extra innings, he didn't disappoint and the high fiving was just as enthusiastic as ever.

The Red Sox are Uehara's third major league team, as he made his debut for the Orioles in 2009, and after spending two seasons plus in Baltimore, he ended up pitching for the Texas Rangers in 2011 and 2012. He was one of the free agents the Sox signed this offseason with little fanfare, expecting him to be a one-inning per outing guy, which is pretty much what we've seen.

With Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan both on the roster, no one considered the possibility that Uehara might close even a single game - indeed, even with both of them on the disabled list, John Farrell had said that Junichi Tazawa would have the job. But Tazawa pitched two innings and got the win on Thursday, so Uehara got the call last night in the bottom of the tenth inning - and he certainly came through.

Closer woes

Just one day after Jon Lester came one batter away from a perfect game to stop a losing streak, the Red Sox lost a heartbreaker in the ninth inning to the Toronto Blue Jays. It's time to address the elephant in the clubhouse: the Red Sox are without a closer, yet again.

With Joel Hanrahan out for the season, and Andrew Bailey reporting that he'll be unable to return from the DL as soon as he's eligible, John Farrell has designated Junichi Tazawa as the stopgap closer. This afternoon, the stopgap closer blew a save after the Sox had rallied to take the lead.

The Extra Bases Blog over at Boston.com has a really great breakdown of the Red Sox closer struggles since they let Jonathan Papelbon back - so far, the financial investment in his replacements has made it seem like it would have been a more responsible decision to just pay him.  Personally, I have a lot of confidence in Andrew Bailey (in fact, I picked him up on both of my fantasy teams when the Sox first declared him the closer), but he can't seem to stay healthy. 

Pitching is the story

Just as the story in the Red Sox success so far in 2013 has been the pitching, the loss this evening was all about the men on the mound. Jon Lester was less than sharp, giving up five earned runs in six innings pitched, before giving way to Junichi Tazawa, who gave up two earned runs of his own and took the loss. Joel Hanrahan, fresh off the disabled list, took the ball for the bottom of the eighth inning and gave up the ninth and final Blue Jays run of the night.

And so even on a night when the offense scored seven runs, the Red Sox suffered the loss. David Ortiz led the drive with a home run and four RBIs, while Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes also had homers. But it doesn't really matter how many runs you score if your pitchers can't stop the other team from rounding the bases.

There are obviously going to be nights like this. I'm not worried about Jon Lester - he's been so incredibly solid so far, this is just a blip on the radar. I'm also unconcerned with Junichi Tazawa, because his stuff is great, and I'm confident that he'll go back to being an important part of the bullpen. I do have to admit to being somewhat worried about Joel Hanrahan - but even if he turns out to be an enormous flop, Andrew Bailey has proven he can be the everyday closer.

The Yankees are about to pick up a game on us (they're currently experiencing the joy of playing the Houston Astros), but the Sox have Clay Buchholz on the mound tomorrow, going for his sixth win. I'm not worried.

Sox topple A's

Despite giving up five walks and three earned runs over 6.2 innings, Felix Doubront earned his second win of the season this evening against the Oakland A's. The Athletics rolled into Fenway Park with a season record of 12-7, but it's worth noting that they've already played three games against the Mariners and six against the Astros (seriously, the Astros presence in the AL West is a literal GIFT to the other teams in that division).

It' always nice to start off a series with a win - and the Red Sox have done that in eery series so far in 2013. After yesterday's doubleheader, it was important for Doubront to log significant innings and preserve the bullpen, and though he struggled a little bit to be efficient, he made it into the seventh inning, with a sizable cushion provided by the offense.

Mike Napoli had a grand slam, and Will Middlebrooks made a start at breaking out of his slump with a three run homerun as the two led the offense to a nine-run outburst. The bullpen effort was spearheaded by Junichi Tazawa and Andrew Bailey, in what was truly a team effort. The Red Sox are first in the AL East, two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, and two-and-a-half ahead of the Yankees.

"Sellout" streak officially over

As awful as it was to watch last night's meltdown from Joel Hanrahan, there was a kind of poetic justice about the whole situation. It was the first officially un-soldout game in nearly a decade, and it somehow seemed to mirror the tendencies of the Red Sox over the last couple of years.

Things started off pretty evenly, as the Orioles scored, the Red Sox evened the score, and then the Red Sox pulled ahead by two runs - but the Orioles closed the gap heading into the rain delay. I know I came into the game with high hopes, after seeing the Sox dispose of the Orioles on Opening Day.

The first part of the game was like a microcosm of the 2011 season: the Sox got off to a 0-6 start, but managed to pull themselves out and back into contention by midseason, just as last night's squad fell behind but stayed within reach of a win by the rain delay. Post rain delay, Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit two home runs, resulting in jubilation among the Fenway faithful, much like the incredible summer we enjoyed in 2011.

And then Hanrahan came on to close things out. After Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Andrew Bailey each pitched a scoreless inning, Hanrahan came in and couldn't close the deal - like the September 2011 meltdown of the entire Red Sox pitching staff (and, even more specifically, then-closer Jonathan Papelbon's personal meltdown against the Orioles on the last day of the season).

Andrew Miller managed to come in and get the last out, but then the Red Sox could not score in the bottom of the ninth - an exercise in futility that resembled 2012 in its entirety.

And so whether you buy my metaphor, last night was the beginning of a new era for the Red Sox. Hopefully the end of the "sellout streak" (which was fraudulent by the end, let's be honest) can be a clean slate for the Sox. Even after last night's loss, the Red Sox are still in first place in the AL East. Alfredo Aceves takes the mound tonight for the series finale, and while I wouldn't have chosen him as the tone-setter, he definitely has something to prove.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

Andrew Bailey to the Sox

 According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox have traded for Oakland A's closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.  Josh Reddick will be shipping out to Oakland, and  Class-A first baseman Miles Head and Class-A pitcher Raul Alcantara will be headed to A's minor league affiliate.

I know some of you grew pretty fond of Reddick last season, since he spent more than half the season with the big club, but his shoes are sure to be filled by someone capable.  While Rookie Reddick was serviceable, batting .280 with seven home runs and 28 RBIs in 87 games, he played just 56 of those games in right field.  According to the Globe's Pete Abraham, the Sox were downright deplorable in right field last season:

Red Sox right fielders hit .233/.299/.353 last season with 14 homers and 58 RBIs. Going by OPS, only Seattle was worse in the American League.

It's unlikely that Sweeney would end up being the full-time right fielder, as he's capable of playing all three outfield positions, and he seems to be more of a utility/fourth outfielder type, batting .265 with 25 RBIs and just one home run last season in 108 games.  We'll probably be seeing a lot of Ryan Kalish, who has hopefully fully recovered from all of his ailments.  Obviously, Kalish won't just be handed the job - there will be some competition in Spring Training.

But we all know that the gem of this deal is 27-year-old Andrew Bailey.  Since the departure of Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox Nation has been understandably worried about who is going to be closing games, especially because former heir-apparent Daniel Bard has expressed interest in starting.  Bailey should be a serviceable replacement, as he has 75 saves in his three-year career, and though his ERA went up considerably last year (1.47 to 3.24), he had nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks.

It will be interesting to see how Bailey fares in the AL East, especially after spending his career in the somewhat cushier AL West (though I'm sure he's happy he doesn't have to face the Angels and Albert Pujols 18 times a season).  All in all, this is a solid move for new GM Ben Cherington - maybe it will even get Red Sox Nation off his back.