2016 Bill James Projections: David Ortiz

Source

2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI

2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI

2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI

2013: 137 games, .309 BA, .395 OBP, .564 SLG, 30 HR, 103 RBI

2014 projection: 146 games, .287 BA, .384 OBP, .531 SLG, 30 HR, 98 RBI

2014: 142 games, .263 BA, .355 OBP, .517 SLG, 35 HR, 104 RBI

2015 projection: 144 games, .275 BA, .371 OBP, .517 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

2015: 146 games, .273 BA, .360 OBP, .553 SLG, 37 HR, 108 RBI

2016 projection: 142 games, .262 BA, .358 OBP, .488 SLG, 28 HR, 93 RBI

I started a draft of this post on December 29th of last year, but I haven't been able to bring myself to finish. This is the last projections post I will ever make for David Ortiz, as we're about to embark upon his final season in Major League Baseball.

By all accounts, between the tribute ceremonies and never ending parade of gifts, Ortiz is in for his typical fantastic season at the plate. Bill James and his team project Ortiz to come close to another 30 HR, 100 RBI season - not bad for the elder statesman of the league.

I much prefer this ending to an alternative where Ortiz overstays his productive years - how many incredible players have we watched decline before our very eyes? That being said, any ending to the storied career of Big Papi is far too soon. 

We were lucky enough to watch history being made by a living legend, year in and year out. That all stops in 2016 - but here's hoping the end doesn't come until deep into the postseason. The greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history deserves to do his thing one more time on the game's brightest stage.

2016 Bill James Projections: Craig Kimbrel

Source

2010: 4-0, 21 games, 1 save, 20.2 IP, 0.44 ERA, 16 BB, 40 SO
2011 projection: 5-2, 63 games, 25 saves, 63 IP, 2.57 ERA, 47 BB, 100 SO
2011: 4-3, 79 games, 46 saves, 77 IP, 2.10 ERA, 32 BB, 127 SO
2012 projection: 6-3, 74 games, 44 saves, 74 IP, 1.95 ERA, 39 BB, 121 SO
2012: 3-1, 63 games, 42 saves, 62.2 IP, 1.01 ERA, 14 BB, 116 SO
2013 projection: 5-2, 64 games, 39 saves, 65 IP, 1.38 ERA, 22 BB, 109 SO
2013: 4-3, 68 games, 50 saves, 67 IP, 1.21 ERA, 20 BB, 98 SO
2014 projection: 6-2, 50 saves, 72 games, 74 IP, 1.34 ERA, 22 BB, 120 SO
2014: 0-3, 63 games, 47 saves, 61.2 IP, 1.61 ERA, 26 BB, 95 SO
2015 projection: 5-2, 65 games,  56 saves, 64 IP, 1.55 ERA, 23 BB, 102 SO
2015: 4-2, 61 games, 39 saves, 59.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 22 BB, 87 SO
2016 projection: 5-2, 67 games, 45 saves, 66 IP, 1.77 ERA, 25 BB, 103 SO

The Criag Kimbrel trade was the very first big story for the Sox in an offseason full of them. When we found out that Kimbrel would be coming to Boston, we didn't yet know that 2016 would be David Ortiz's final season, or that he would soon be joined by David Price.

After the news broke regarding regarding the domestic violence investigation swirling around Aroldis Chapman, we learned that the Red Sox had previously been debating the merits of the two closers, ultimately abandoning their pursuit of Chapman when the domestic violence allegations came to light during a background check.

And so the front office traded a better prospect package to get Kimbrel, complete with more years of team control and a lack of criminal and league investigations.

So what will the Red Sox really be getting with Craig Kimbrel? Youth, for one thing. Former closer Koji Uehara will be 40 years old this season, and Kimbrel is twelve years his junior. While youth doesn't automatically equal health, Kimbrel has consistently been able to stay on the field and perform at a high level.

As far as the jump from National League to American League, Kimbrel has already gone on record saying he's looking forward to the challenge. While Bill James and his team calculated Kimbrel's 2016 projections before the trade, they're likely to give us a reasonable look at his production, and those numbers look pretty good.

Assuming Kimbrel gets a fair number of save opportunities, it looks like he'll turn out to be a wise investment.

2016 Bill James Projections: Pablo Sandoval

Source

2011: 117 games, .315 BA, .357 OBP, .552 SLG, 23 HR, 70 RBI
2012 projection: 144 games, .311 BA, .363 OBP, .525 SLG, 24 HR, 86 RBI
2012: 108 games, .283 BA, .342 OBP, .447 SLG, 12 HR, 63 RBI
2013 projection: 150 games, .298 BA, .356 OBP, .498 SLG, 22 HR, 88 RBI
2013: 141 games, .278 BA, .341 OBP, .417 SLG, 14 HR, 79 RBI
2014 projection: 140 games, .292 BA, .354 OBP, .466 SLG, 18 HR, 81 RBI
2014: 157 games, .279 BA, .324 OBP, .415 SLG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .287 BA, .344 OBP, .447 SLG, 18 HR, 82 RBI
2015: 126 games, .245 BA, .292 OBP, .366 SLG, 10 HR, 47 RBI
2016 projection: 147 games, .275 BA, .328 OBP, .424 SLG, 15 HR, 72 RBI

Here we are, two weeks from Opening Day(!), and there's a serious discussion over who's going to start at third base for the Red Sox. Pablo Sandoval will be paid $17.6 million in 2016, and he's in serious danger of losing his starting spot to Travis Shaw, a 25-year-old making just above the league minimum. 

The Red Sox would gladly swallow Panda's salary if it meant actually getting some production out of the third base spot - but do they have to dump Sandoval and replace him with Shaw to do it?

Last season wasn't up to Sandoval's usual standard offensively, but it was his abysmal defense that really hurt the team. Panda has never been a regular season powerhouse - his real strength has always come in October, but as the Red Sox learned, none of that matters when you're out of contention by July.

Bill James and his team project Sandoval to bounce back to his normal production at the plate in 2016, which is to say just about league average, perhaps a smidge higher or lower depending on which category you look at. But it looks like the Red Sox might not be waiting around to see if Sandoval can get himself back up to average - offensively or defensively.

Travis Shaw is having a tremendous spring, and while Sandoval's March production has been promising, the Red Sox are committed to putting the best possible starting squad on the field. That may or may not include Pablo Sandoval.

2016 Bill James Projections: Joe Kelly

Source

2012: 5-7, 16 starts, 107 IP, 3.53 ERA, 36 BB, 75 SO
2013 projection: 4-4, 0 starts, 67 IP, 4.16 ERA, 23 BB, 48 SO
2013: 10-5, 15 starts, 124 IP, 2.69 ERA, 44 BB, 79 SO
2014 projection: 6-7, 14 starts, 118 IP, 4.12 ERA, 41 BB, 81 SO
2014: 6-4, 17 starts, 96.1 IP, 4.20 ERA, 42 BB, 66 SO
2015 projection: 8-11, 28 starts, 172 IP, 4.19 ERA, 70 BB, 117 SO
2015: 10-6, 25 starts, 134.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 49 BB, 110 SO
2016 projection: 7-9, 25 starts, 144 IP, 4.25 ERA, 56 BB, 104 RBI

Despite his laudable ambitions for 2015, Joe Kelly fell far short of his Cy Young goal last season - and despite a better win-loss record than predicted, he failed to measure up to every other statistical projection.

There were flashes of brilliance, a few hints that Kelly might have a good (or even great) season buried somewhere deep inside. Most notably in August, when Kelly achieved the Holy Grail of Red Sox pitchers: a coveted - and warranted - comparison to Pedro Martinez. With an undefeated August, Kelly became the first Red Sox starter to earn six wins in a calendar month since Martinez did it in 1999.

The early season struggles and demotion to AAA Pawtucket were difficult to watch, but Kelly's late-season resurgence proved that the relatively young righthander has the resilience to stick it out and make the necessary adjustments to be a successful pitcher in the major leagues. 

I hate to lay even more responsibility at the feet of David Price, but his presence at the top of the rotation can only help the younger pitchers on the staff. He's proven in the past that he's a willing and able mentor for any teammates who might come to him for advice, and I have to believe that Kelly is the type of player to take full advantage of that.

If Kelly only manages the slight improvements projected by Bill James and his team for 2016, I'll admit to being a bit disappointed, seeing as he's already shown us he has the potential to be much, much better than that. Kelly will turn 28 this season, and while still on the young side, he should be entering his prime. The ceiling on Joe Kelly's potential is high, but he has a lot of minds to change in the course of reaching it.

2016 Bill James Projections: Jackie Bradley Jr.

Source

2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI

2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI

2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI

2014: 127 games, .198 BA, .265 OBP, .266 SLG, 1 HR, 30 RBI

2015 projection: 129 games, .226 BA, .298 OBP, .341 SLG, 6 HR, 36 RBI

2015: 74 games, .249 BA, .335 OBP, .498 SLG, 10 HR, 43 RBI

2016 projection: 145 games, .253 BA, .329 OBP, .416 SLG, 14 HR, 62 RBI

Jackie Bradley Jr. started the 2015 season in limbo. Shipped off to Pawtucket out of the gate despite tearing it up in spring training, Bradley cycled through a few short trips to Boston before making the permanent jump at the end of July. 

Then in August something amazing happened. The guy we'd been told was all-field, no-hit began mashing. In 26 August games, Bradley hit .354, with a .734 slugging percentage. That's not a typo: Bradley had 28 hits, and 17 of them were for extra bases, including 5 home runs. Of course, he fell back to earth somewhat down the stretch as major league pitchers began to figure him out, but Bradley proved that he's much more than an excellent glove.

The highlight reel catches kept on coming between the big hits, and even as Bradley's offensive numbers leveled off as the season drew to a close, there was no member of Boston's highly regarded outfield more reliable than he was. 

The Red Sox are reportedly planning to start 2016 with Bradley in center field where he belongs, and putting Mookie Betts in right. It makes a lot of sense: even with Fenway's rather expansive right field, it's a waste to have the spectacular Bradley playing anywhere but center.

Bill James and his team project Bradley to make some gains over a full season in 2016. But the Red Sox will be content if he can perform at even an average level at the plate, seeing as he'll doubtless save plenty of runs with his glove.

2016 Bill James Projections: David Price

 

Source

2010: 19-6, 31 starts, 208.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 79 BB, 188 SO
2011 projection: 14-10, 32 starts, 217 IP, 3.57 ERA, 87 BB, 191 SO
2011: 12-13, 34 starts, 224.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 63 BB, 218 SO
2012 projection: 15-10, 34 starts, 226 IP, 3.31 ERA, 73 BB, 207 SO
2012: 20-5, 31 starts, 211 IP, 2.56 ERA, 59 BB, 205 SO (Cy Young winner)
2013 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 216 IP, 3.13 ERA, 63 BB, 202 SO
2013: 10-8, 27 starts, 186.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 27 BB, 151 SO
2014 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 218 IP, 3.01 ERA, 44 BB, 195 SO
2014: 15-12, 34 starts, 248.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 38 BB, 271 SO
2015 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 36 BB, 211 SO
2015: 18-5, 32 starts, 220.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 47 BB, 225 SO
2016 projection: 17-8, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 42 BB, 214 SO

After last year's (lack of) pitching fiasco, the Red Sox simply needed to go out this offseason and get themselves an ace. Luckily, the field was deep, including Zack Greinke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann. Red Sox Nation could feel confident that Opening Day would dawn with at least one of these guys taking the mound for the Red Sox.

I know many Red Sox fans would have preferred Greinke over Price. I was not one of them. We'll never know how Zack Greinke would have fared in a Red Sox uniform and in the AL East - and I'm guessing he much prefers it that way. Price, on the other hand, has pitched in the AL East for most of his career, and relishes the attention that comes with that.

As for the oft-cited enmity that existed between Price and Red Sox slugger David Ortiz? Anyone who thinks the two can't bury the hatchet to pursue the shared goal of a World Series Championship is seriously insulting both players' professionalism. I for one expect the two of them to show up to spring training sporting matching "Team David" t-shirts if it means the end of the discussion regarding their prior dislike for one another, and a renewed focus on winning.

At the end of the day, David Price is an ace. You can cite his less-than-impressive postseason numbers all you want (though please keep in mind we're dealing with small sample sizes and some curious managerial decisions regarding his use), but at the end of the day, he's a member of the Red Sox. Not to mention... you have to actually get to October before any of that is even a factor, something the Red Sox have failed to do quite often in recent years.

Bill James and his team project David Price to have another characteristically excellent season in 2016, complete with 200+ innings, and a strikeout to walk ratio over 5. David Price is an incredible athlete and competitor, and he's coming into Boston in 2016 with something to prove. I for one can't wait to watch.

2016 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB
2015: 105 games, .249 BA, .291 OBP, .426 SLG, 19 HR, 53 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .277 BA, .346 OBP, .462 SLG, 23 HR, 80 RBI

I think I'm in the minority of Red Sox fans when I say that I still don't hate the Hanley Ramirez deal. Especially given the (borderline tragic) news that 2016 will be David Ortiz's final year manning the designated hitter slot for the Red Sox, I actually like the Ramirez signing better than ever.

Was last year a relative disappointment? Sure. But Ramirez played just under 65% of a full season last year, and hit nearly 20 home runs. He only missed all that time in the first place because he got injured early on playing an unfamiliar position - one much more challenging than the one he'll be asked to play this season.

On Opening Day 2015, Hanley Ramirez hit two home runs, one of them a grand slam. While that kind of production is obviously unrealistic on a game-by-game basis, you'd be lying to yourself if you said that performance didn't make you practically giddy with anticipation over what Ramirez might accomplish in a Red Sox uniform.

No one, not even a fully healthy and committed Hanley Ramirez, will ever come close to duplicating the production David Ortiz has had in Boston. But without the burden of playing in left field - and eventually, without the burden of playing anywhere but the plate - Ramirez could change a lot of minds.

Bill James and his team project Ramirez to have a better season in 2016 than the one we endured last year. Ramirez himself has pledged his dedication to staying fit and dedicated for the upcoming campaign. Of course, he promised us the same thing last year, and actions speak louder than words. I genuinely believe that Boston could be great for Ramirez, and vice versa. Hopefully he spends 2016 doing his absolute damnedest to prove the haters wrong.

2016 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO

2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO

2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO

2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO

2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO

2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO

2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

2015: 7-7, 18 starts, 113.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 23 BB, 107 SO

2016 projection: 10-9, 28 starts, 171 IP, 3.47 ERA, 44 BB, 136 SO

I don't know about you guys, but I've long since given up the idea that clay Buchholz will ever be the kind of pitcher who can give the Red Sox 200 innings - and it seems that Bill James and his team have decided to give up the idea that he'll even come that close.

And you know what? That's okay. One of the many, many reasons the Red Sox needed to sign themselves an ace was to take the pressure to perform at that level off of Buchholz's shoulders. Buchholz's best season in recent years was in 2013, when he was the number 4 pitcher entering the World Series (following Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy). Even at the season's outset, when expectations were low, the undisputed "ace" was always Lester.

Buchholz has never seemed like a guy who handles pressure well. That, plus an inability to stay stay healthy (probably linked to an inability to keep any bulk on his thin frame) means that while he still shows flashes of brilliance, the addition of David Price to the rotation can only help Buchholz's overall performance.

2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

Source

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
2015: 156 games, .320 BA, .355 OBP, .421 SLG, 7 HR, 81 RBI
2016 projection: 152 games, .298 BA, .348 OBP, .425 SLG, 12 HR, 76 RBI

Without Xander Bogaerts and his similarly young and talented teammates (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., etc.), the entirety of 2015 would have been spent wallowing in despair over the absolute joke of a pitching staff and the injury bug that seemed to keep every veteran player off the field for extended periods of time.

Bogaerts really came into his own in 2015 - and with a monopoly on the shortstop position, he performed at the plate. It seems that some predictability on the defensive side of things helped his consistency on offense. Bogaerts won his first ever Silver Slugger award in 2015, after a season that saw him top several offensive categories among AL shortstops.

Bill James and his team project another good year at the plate for Bogaerts in 2016, with perhaps just a smidge more power. As always, the single best thing about Xander Bogaerts is his age: he won't be a free agent until 2020 - but don't get too attached, as he's represented by Scott Boras.

For the foreseeable future, though, Bogaerts will don a Red Sox uniform, and I for one plan to enjoy each and every minute.

2016 Bill James Projections: Dustin Pedroia

Source

2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI 
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI 
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI 
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI 
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
2014: 135 games, .278 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG, 7 HR, 53 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .361 OBP, .421 SLG, 12 HR, 70 RBI

2015: 93 games, .291 BA, .356 OBP, .441 SLG, 12 HR, 42 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .288 BA, .359 OBP, .427 SLG, 13 HR, 64 RBI

The 2015 season saw Dustin Pedroia take the field fewer times than any year since he broke his foot in 2010. Pedroia looked promising out of the gate, clubbing two home runs on Opening Day in Philadelphia, but would soon be sidelined with a hamstring strain, speanding the rest of the season bouncing on and off the disabled list.

Pedroia's all-in, every play, every day approach is endearing, but dangerous. He puts his body on the line in every situation - even when it might not be totally necessary, and as he gets older, that kind of dedication will only result in more pains, strains, and pulls. 

But the good news is that Pedroia often turns in an excellent season the year after an injury - possibly because his body has a little extra time to recover from the abuse he puts it through. Bill James and his team project Pedroia to stay on the field a bit more in 2016, and there's no question that Pedroia will be giving it his all each and every day.

2015 Bill James Projections - Dustin Pedroia

Source

 2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
2014: 135 games, .278 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG, 7 HR, 53 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .361 OBP, .421 SLG, 12 HR, 70 RBI

As a matter of principal, I'm going to go on record as saying that Bill James and his team have underestimated Dustin Pedroia's numbers for 2015. Why? Because people have been underestimating Dustin Pedroia his entire career, and he proves the doubters wrong every time.

Aside from that, Pedroia came into camp this year having had a productive offseason with no limits - the first such offseason in a number of years. As much as I love Pedroia (and I love him a lot), he can be his own worst enemy, thowing himself around the field with no regard to his own safety.

It's amazing to have a man on the field who puts the Red Sox winning over his own body and wellbeing - but Pedroia has a tendency to hurt himself sometimes in situations that didn't require such a balls-to-the-wall approach.

Red Sox fans know that Pedroia won't (can't!) tone things down situationally: his 110% all the time style of play is as much a part of him as trash talking and premature balding. It's a trade that anyone would make to have the tenacity and talent Pedroia possess suiting up for their team every day.

Former Red Sox skipper Terry Francona was known to say "If I had nine Dustins we'd win every game." Despite the inherent risks of a Pedroia-type player, I agree wholeheartedly with Tito, and I expect big things from my favorite Red Sox this season.

2015 Bill James Projections: Christian Vazquez

Source

2014: 55 games, .240 BA, .308 OBP, .309 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2015 projection: 110 games, .256 BA, .326 OBP, .343 SLG, 3 HR, 35 RBI

Though Red Sox catchers talk this season has been focused on the possibility that prospect Blake Swihart might get packaged to Philadelphia for Cole Hamels, the Sox have quite a catcher already in Christian Vazquez.

Though Swihart is widely regarded as the best catching prospect in baseball, Vazquez has some serious supporters of his own. Joe Kelly calls Vazquez "Mini-Yadi," a nod to Yadier Molina of the famously talented Molina catching brothers.

The comparison makes some sense, even if it's quite a lot to live up to, as Vazquez spends part of each offseason working out with the Molinas in their native Puerto Rico. For his part, Yadier Molina has confidence in Vazquez's abilities, both behind the plate and with the bat, proclaiming, "He's going to hit."

In 55 games with the Red Sox last season, Vazquez hit a light .240, but his teammates are rooting for him, and he did show improvement near the end of the year. Bill James and his team project only minor improvement for Vazquez this year, but catcher isn't typically a position that's expected to should a huge offensive responsibility.

If Vazquez can hold steady or even improve behind the dish with Kelly singing his praises to the pitching staff, the bridge to Swihart appears to be very solid.

2015 Bill James Projections: Mookie Betts

Source

2014: 52 games, .291 BA, .368 OBP, .444 SLG, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB
2015 projection: 154 games, .321 BA, .405 OBP, .493 SLG, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 40 SB

Despite the very crowded Red Sox outfield heading into spring training, Bill James and his team expect Mookie Betts to burst onto the Red Sox scene and never look back. Betts made his major league debut in June of last year, and bounced between Pawtucket and Boston a few times before finishing the season with the Red Sox.

When Betts was in the lower levels of the Red Sox minor league system, he primarily played second base, though he'd also excelled at shortstop and outfield in high school. Though he was blocked at second by Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox valued his athleticism and prowess with a bat enough to retrain him as an outfielder rather than shipping him off in a trade.

Betts no longer counts as a Red Sox prospect, or he'd be near the top of all the ratings lists floating around the internet this month. If he even approximates the numbers James has laid out, the Red Sox will be thrilled: at only 21, Betts won't be eligible for arbitration until 2018, and he's under team control through 2021.

Betts' success would probably mean one of the older and more expensive outfielders on the Sox roster being shown the door, but the Red Sox have handled their farm system well, and Betts is just one of a number of young players looking to make a name for themselves this coming season.

Given the fact that he barely flinched at the adjustment to facing major league pitching last autumn, Betts seems like the kind of player to establish his star-power early - and woe to anyone who might stand in his way.

2015 Bill James Projection: Rick Porcello

Source

2010: 10-12, 27 starts, 162.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 38 BB, 84 SO
2011 projection: 10-11, 29 starts, 188 IP, 4.21 ERA, 52 BB, 102 SO
2011: 14-9, 31 starts, 182 IP, 4.75 ERA, 46 BB, 104 SO
2012 projection: 10-11, 31 starts, 190 IP, 4.22 ERA, 49 BB, 105 SO
2012: 10-12, 31 starts, 176.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 44 BB, 107 SO
2013 projection: 9-11, 31 starts, 178 IP, 4.50 ERA, 45 BB, 102 SO
2013: 13-8, 29 starts, 177 IP, 4.32 ERA, 42 BB, 142 SO
2014 projection: 9-11, 30 starts, 186 IP, 4.31 ERA, 45 BB, 117 SO
2014: 15-13, 31 starts, 204.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 41 BB, 129 SO
2015 projection: 11-13, 32 starts, 209 IP, 4.00 ERA, 45 BB, 132 SO

It's curious to me that Bill James and his team project Rick Porcello's ERA will go up significantly next season, considering he's consistently improved in that area every season since 2010.

Porcello is a member of the much-debated and sometimes-maligned 2015 Red Sox rotation. The group is often referred to as a staff of number 3 starters, but I think that's unfair. Is Rick Porcello a bona fide ace? Absolutely not [yet]. But he could certainly be a solid number two.

Rick Porcello was an important member of the vaunted Detroit Tigers staff for the last few seasons, and while his contributions were sometimes forgotten behind those of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, there were times when Porcello outperformed them both.

All of this, plus the fact that Porcello is just 26 years old, makes him a fantastic addition to the Red Sox. The downside is that he's a year out from free agency, and apparently uninterested in discussing an extension.

But with a potential payday on the horizon, the Red Sox will be getting a young, talented pitcher with an incredibly large incentive for giving the 2015 season everything he has in the tank.

I think James' projections for Porcello are underestimating him. Despite the naysayers and the "We should have signed Shields" whiners, I expect big things from Porcello this season.

2015 Bill James Projections: Wade Miley

Source

2011: 4-2, 7 starts, 40 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 BB, 25 SO
2012 projection: 4-5, 14 starts, 80 IP, 3.94 ERA, 30 BB, 61 SO
2012: 16-11, 29 starts, 194.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 37 BB, 144 SO
2013 projection: 12-10, 30 starts, 199 IP, 3.57 ERA, 50 BB, 150 SO
2013: 10-10, 33 starts, 202.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 66 BB, 147 SO
2014 projection: 12-11, 32 starts, 203 IP, 3.68 ERA, 59 BB, 151 SO
2014: 8-12, 33 starts, 201.1 IP, 4.34 ERA, 75 BB, 183 SO
2015 projection: 10-11, 30 starts, 184 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 145 SO

The Red Sox traded for Wade Miley shortly before losing Jon Lester to the Cubs, and the trade almost suggested that Boston knew it wouldn't be luring Lester back to Fenway Park.

But let's be perfectly clear: Wade Miley, despite being a big southpaw, is not Jon Lester. Red Sox Nation mourned the loss of Lester, a true left-handed ace - but Ben Cherington made the right long term call, as the years committed by the Cubs are overzealous at best.

So what does Miley bring to the table? He throws his ~90mph fastball about two-thirds of the time, though he leaned on it slightly less last year than in previous years. He also throws a slider, a changeup, and (rarely) a curveball.

The biggest advantage Miley will bring to the Red Sox is the near-guarantee that he'll throw a lot of innings: since making the jump from 40 IP to 194 IP in 2012, Miley has neared or topped the 200 inning mark in each of the last three seasons. The importance of that durability on a staff that includes Clay Buchholz cannot be overstated.

The other thing about Miley is that he'll be just 28 this year. He's been good if not spectacular throughout his career, but he still has plenty of time to grow as a player - and John Farrell has an excellent track record when it comes to molding young arms.

Bill James and his team calculated their projections with the assumption Miley would be pitching in the NL West, so it's likely there will be an adjustment period when he moves to the AL East. Still, Red Sox fans should absolutely be optimistic about Miley's future in Boston. He's a solid pitcher with a high ceiling, and as of today, the only lefty in the Red Sox rotation.

2015 Bill James Projection: Pablo Sandoval

Source

2011: 117 games, .315 BA, .357 OBP, .552 SLG, 23 HR, 70 RBI
2012 projection: 144 games, .311 BA, .363 OBP, .525 SLG, 24 HR, 86 RBI
2012: 108 games, .283 BA, .342 OBP, .447 SLG, 12 HR, 63 RBI
2013 projection: 150 games, .298 BA, .356 OBP, .498 SLG, 22 HR, 88 RBI
2013: 141 games, .278 BA, .341 OBP, .417 SLG, 14 HR, 79 RBI
2014 projection: 140 games, .292 BA, .354 OBP, .466 SLG, 18 HR, 81 RBI
2014: 157 games, .279 BA, .324 OBP, .415 SLG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .287 BA, .344 OBP, .447 SLG, 18 HR, 82 RBI

I don't know about any of you, but when I was watching the World Series this year, the idea that the Red Sox would go after - and then sign! - Pablo Sandoval never even crossed my mind. I took it as a matter of course that he would return to the Giants, but I'm thrilled to have been wrong.

The man they call Panda will be in Boston for the foreseeable future, as the deal has been reported at 5 years/$100 million. While I know there are people concerned about the length of the deal, I am not one of them: Sandoval is currently 28 years old, and will be just 33 at the end of this contract - well within the lifespan of an elite hitter.

There's plenty of speculation that Sandoval has been brought into the fold to take David Ortiz's place as a full time DH when the lefthanded legend calls it a career. Obviously, Red Sox fans will always have a special place in our hearts for Ortiz, but the comparison with Sandoval isn't too out there.

Panda is the kind of player who typically has good production during the regular season, but absolutely explodes when the pressure is on. Over three World Series, Sandoval batted .426 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, and a WS MVP Award. For comparison, Ortiz's line is .455 with 3 HR, 14 RBI, and 2 WS MVP Awards.

Personally, I can't wait to see the two of them sharing a lineup; as a guy who thrives in high-stakes situations, the pressure cooker of Boston should suit Sandoval nicely.

2015 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB

The rumors would crop up almost every year between the time Hanley Ramirez went to Florida and this offseason: the one-time Red Sox prospect was coming back. It now seems there's an actual fire under all that smoke, and Ramirez, now a bona fide star, is on his way back to Boston.

But what can we expect from Ramirez this season? It's unclear where the soon-to-be 31-year-old will even play: the Red Sox seem content with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop (and pulling him from his natural position seemed to have consequences this season), and are reportedly among the finalists to sign free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

There's talk that Ramirez could end up in left field if the Red Sox are the winners of the Sandoval sweepstakes, but he's never played a major league game in the outfield in his ten years of service time. One thing remains clear: no matter what we get from Ramirez defensively, his bat will add some much-needed pop to a Red Sox lineup that in 2014 could be accurately described as "lethargic."

Ramirez's average has hovered around .300 his entire career, and his power numbers are certainly well above what you would expect from a shortstop in the post-steroid era. Over the past few years, Bill James and his team have done a reliable job either underestimating Ramirez slightly, or hitting their projections almost exactly on the nose.

If Ramirez can live up to what James has projected for his 2015 in the midst of trading one big market (LA) for another (the admittedly much more baseball-crazed Boston), we should have an exciting season on our hands.

Welcome back to Boston, Hanley Ramirez: the expectations will be higher here, but the fans will show up before the third inning and stay until the end, and the reward, should you lead us all the way, will be that much sweeter.

2015 Bill James Projections: Mike Napoli

Source

2011: 113 games, .320 BA, .414 OBP, .631 SLG, 30 HR, 75 RBI
2012 projection: 131 games, .271 BA, .364 OBP, .537 SLG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
2012: 108 games, .227 BA, .343 OBP, .469 SLG, 24 HR, 56 RBI
2013 projection: 127 games, .248 BA, .350 OBP, .498 SLG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
2013: 139 games, .259 BA, .360 OBP, .482 SLG, 23 HR, 92 RBI
2014 projection: 137 games, .246 BA, .348 OBP, .471 SLG, 26 HR, 79 RBI
2014: 119 games, .248 BA, .370 OBP, .419 SLG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
2015 projection: 135 games, .246 BA, .355 OBP, .453 SLG, 23 HR, 72 RBI

The biggest discrepancy between Mike Napoli's 2013 season and his 2014 season is in the power numbers, primarily home runs and RBIs. Of course, there were fewer Red Sox on base for Nap to drive in this season than last, and he played twenty fewer games this season than last, all well dealing with assorted injuries.

Napoli is currently recovering from surgery to relieve his sleep apnea, a condition that restricts airways during sleep, causing loud snoring and a disruption in breathing. Sleep apnea sufferers often feel tired even after a full night's sleep, so if the surgery was successful it stands to reason Napoli will be better rested in 2015.

After last year's World Series, the Red Sox extended Nap to the tune of two years, and $32 million, so he's due $16 million in 2015, and will be a free agent at the conclusion of next season. If Napoli can perform up to Bill James' projections for him next season, it will be money well spent.

Mike Napoli has embraced the Red Sox and Boston in a way that few players can, and his current contract is exactly the kind of thing the team should pursue in the future: short in years, and perhaps a bit generous in annual value.