On aging and injuries

If one of the single greatest thing about being a baseball fan is watching young prospects come up, contribute every day, and become stars, then one of the hardest things is watching as franchise stalwarts age out of their heydays. Every year we citizens of Red Sox Nation speculate that this will finally be the year that Yankees' core shows some age (Mariano Rivera can't be human), and every year we seem to be wrong.

But we spend very little time anticipating the inevitable decline of our own players, perhaps in denial that our heroes can succumb to trivial human weaknesses like age. But of course, members of the Red Sox do get older, and they eventually bow out, or we have to watch them struggle through their slow decline. Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield might have been able to scrape out another year or so, but they elected (under some pressure, admittedly), to step aside gracefully.

So where am I going with this? If you looked at the photo at the top when you got to this page, you already know: I'm talking about David Ortiz. I certainly don't think that Ortiz is done, not by any stretch of the imagination, but I do think that the years of 140+ games are probably over.

It's only mid-spring training, but we're still dealing with the aftermath of the achilles problem that Ortiz suffered last year. The designated hitter is confident that he'll be available for Opening Day, and the medical reports out of camp don't suggest otherwise, so barring a setback, we should see #34 on the field when regulation play starts.

I sincerely hope that Ortiz can make it through the season without a stint on the disable list, but that's a gamble for players fifteen years his junior, so realistically it's likely he'll lose some games. Even though it's certainly not going to be this year, David Ortiz's final season as a Red Sox is on the horizon, and I for one am going to begin to prepare myself for that emotional time right now.

It's going to be even harder to see Big Papi go than most players, because he is now officially the last holdout from the 2004 Championship squad still on the team. When he goes, that is officially the end of an era. But Big Papi is on the Red Sox for the foreseeable future, and I plan to enjoy it to the fullest - as soon as he's healthy.

The next generation of knuckleballers

Yesterday in the game against Toronto, the Blue Jays started knuckleballer and 2012 Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey against the newest Red Sox knuckleballer, Steven Wright. After Tim Wakefield retired during last year's spring training, the Red Sox went out and acquired Wright from the Indians for prospect Lars Anderson in July.

Although the Sox are now in need of some depth at first base, the Wright trade seems to be a good one. After a successful seventeen year trip down knuckleball lane with Tim Wakefield, the Red Sox were ready to invest some time in the next generation.

Wright is just 28, and if he was a "conventional" pitcher, he'd be entering his prime. For knuckleballers, a player's prime is somewhat more difficult to pinpoint; Wakefield had one of his best seasons when he was 40, then became an All Star for the first and only time when he was 42.

Wake is headed to spring training to work with Wright, and help Wright with the pitch as previous generations of kuckleballers assisted Wakefield. Because Wakefield doesn't have an official role with the Red Sox like former teammates Jason Varitek and Pedro Martinez, he's free to help out when and how he sees fit, and he's going to start by passing on his considerable knuckleball wisdom.

Five Minute Musings

1. I haven't had the chance to see Knuckleball! yet, but now I can't wait for this "sequel."  The spoof from MLB.com's Fan Cave features RA Dickey, Phil Niekro, and old friend Tim Wakefield as a crime-fighting trio.  The video (above) is just about ninety seconds, and it will probably be the best minute and a half of your day.
2. I don't know if you caught this story from Boston.com, but it features Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Kevin Millar jumping into the jacuzzi with Pedro Martinez before a game in 2004.  There's also an aside from Pedro about strategic signing of the inside of the Monster "so Manny doesn't pee on it."
3. As you know, my roommate and I went to the final home game of the season and unveiling of the All Fenway Team last week.  The whole thing was incredible, and since we temporarily commandeered dugout-side seats (until an usher kicked us out) I was able to take some great photos.  If you want to check them out, there are some posted on the Tumblr attached to this blog, or you can Like this blog on Facebook and see the full album.
4. Ben Cherington as good as said that Bobby V. won't be returning next season. No one is surprised, but what's next? Varitek is headed to the front office (and as I said in my last post, I don't think it would work - at least right now), and the All Fenway Team Manager is said to be interested in managing in Cleveland.  Who do you want to see in the role next season?
5. With the playoffs drawing closer, and the Red Sox so far out (and for so long) I've been thinking about whiuch team(s) I want to support through the postseason.  Yes, I'm a Red Sox fan, but I'm also a BASEBALL fan, and I need to have a few rooting interests. I've gone with the Rangers the last couple Red Sox-less postseasons (mostly because I love Ian Kinsler), but I have some other ideas this time around.  Are you going to hop on a postseason bandwagon? Boycott the playoffs entirely? Let me know in the comments!

A losing season and a rude awakening

It's official. Last night the Red Sox lost their 82nd game (and in spectacular fashion, by a score of 13-3 to the Tampa Bay Rays) to clinch their first losing season since 1997.  That's right, the last time the Red Sox were this bad, I was missing my two front teeth.

I grew up in a generation of lucky fans.  I missed the heartbreak of 1986 by four years, and I was too young during the 1994 strike to really understand what was going on.  Sure, I remember the gut-wrenching end to the 2003 postseason, with Tim Wakefield trudging off the mound dejected, sure he would be the next Bill-Buckner-esque scapegoat, but I remember the euphoria of 2004 and 2007 even more clearly.

The Red Sox of my youth were full of talents like Pedro Martinez and vintage Nomar Garciaparra, pre-traitor Johnny Damon and pre-steroid (at least pre-caught using steroids) Manny Ramirez, original dirt dog Trot Nixon, and pre-Captain Jason Varitek.

I've been spoiled. I got to enjoy this golden era of Boston sports without living through any of the real lean seasons.  Until this year.  I missed watching most of the games this summer while working at a camp, and most days I would check the scores and be more happy than sad that I hadn't seen the carnage live.

And now here we are heading into October.  The Red Sox are about as far from the postseason as I can remember - last year and in 2010 we were still in it at this point.  In 2009, we were swept from the postseason by the Angels.  The Red Sox may not have won a postseason series (or even a postseason game) since 2008, my freshman year in college - but they've been in the hunt every year.

Now that I've graduated, and been dumped into the cold, cruel world, the Red Sox seem to have had the same rude awakening I've had: no one is going to hand you anything.  The AL East is a tough division to survive in, and this year the Red Sox sank.  I'm not sure what kind of moves the front office will be looking at to make next year better than this one, but I have some ideas - starting with taking a long, hard look at Bobby V.

What are your thoughts on the first losing season in fourteen years? Any suggestions for offseason moves? Leave them in the comments.

The end of an era: Jason Varitek retires

I thought I could hold it together, I really did. And then, about a dozen words into his speech, Jason Varitek began to cry - and all of Red Sox Nation (including yours truly) followed suit.  Tek has been playing for the Boston Red Sox since I was seven years old - I literally cannot recall what any of the catchers who came before him look like.

Jason Varitek is the only Red Sox player I've ever met in real life, and some of you might remember this post, where I posted my favorite pictures of Jason Varitek's Celebrity Putt Putt and gushed about how my life was made complete when I handed the Captain his runaway golf ball.

Over the lifespan of this blog (about three years), I have posted about Varitek forty times (not including this one) - accounting for almost ten percent of all my posts. Though not my current favorite player (if you don't know who that distinction belongs to, you must be new here), Jason Varitek means a lot to me.

Tek is a Red Sox stalwart, a Dirt Dog, a leader. His teammates respect him, and the fans love him. He reduced Red Sox Nation to tears several times over this evening at his retirement press conference with sentiments like thanking Terry Francona for "letting me sail with you and captain your ship," and "The hardest thing to do is walk away from your teammates, and what they meant to you.''

Varitek has received tons of praise from teammates past and present (and some non-Sox) for his loyalty and work ethic (quotes gathered by @Jared_Carrabis):

• "He showed me how to be a player with honesty, hard work and integrity without ever having to say one word." - Jonathan Papelbon
• "He taught me how to be a leader & showed me how to be a champion... It was a honor and a pleasure to have been his teammate." - Johnny Damon
• "In my 23 years of professional baseball I never played with or against a more selfless and prepared player than Jason Varitek." - Curt Schilling
•  "I’ve always admired the way Jason played the game, and I appreciated the opportunity I had to get to know him throughout the years." - Derek Jeter
• "His first care was that his teammates succeeded even before himself. I have never seen a player so prepared for every game." - Mike Timlin
• "Although his leadership will be missed, his legacy in Red Sox history will be forged forever." - Tim Wakefield
• "Tek was hands down one of the best teammates I ever had... he was a true captain in every sense of the word." - Mike Lowell

Jason Varitek was always the consummate professional, even if he's declined offensively in the last few years. He always came prepared, even catching four no-hitters from four different pitchers (and might have had a fifth if Schilling hadn't shaken him off).  And, even though he refuses to autograph the picture, Jason Varitek did this:

 And if nothing else, we'll always love him for that.

Red Sox or rednecks?

As a native New Hampshirite, I'm well acquainted with what some people might call rednecks. The kind of people who not only like to hunt, they live to tell the tale of the one that got away.  Normally, these types of people are not millionaires, but in recent years the Red Sox have boasted more than a few legitmate rednecks as part of their roster.

First, there's the photographic evidence:

And then we have the terrifying stories, like this one about JD Drew from last Spring Training (courtesy of Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

Drew said he was in a boat with his son once when they hooked an alligator with a fishing lure. He had his son hold the pole and took position to try and leap on the alligator.

"I figured I could get him myself," he said. "He was about five or six feet."

"With your bare hands?" I asked.

J.D. gave me his best "no, you stupid city boy" look.

"I had a knife," he said.

But the line snapped and the gator got away. J.D. missed his chance.

So next time you read about J.D. missing a game with a bad hamstring and consider complaining, consider that this is a guy who was willing to jump out of a perfectly good boat and attack a man-sized alligator with a knife. 

And now we have an anecdote about panthers, courtesy of Clay Buchholz (and Boston.com's Extra Bases blog):

A Fort Myers resident told me that the woods beyond the practice fields are known to have panthers and wild hogs.

According to Clay Buchholz, who knows of such things, panthers can be five or six feet long. "I'd want to shoot it before it could hunt me," Buchholz said.

New Hampshire would be proud to have them.

Now I can finally say: "It's over."

As we all wipe our tears, some of you will pretend "there's something in my eye." Yeah, no. We see you. It's okay to cry it out.

But enough crying. We knew it would happen someday, and that day is here.  To get your mind off today's tearjerking events, here are some fun facts about the knuckleballer.

• Tim's middle name is Stephen, and he was born in Melbourne, Florida
• Wake has more innings pitched for the Red Sox than any other player, with 2,944, nearly 200 innings more than Roger Clemens
• Nominated for the MLB Roberto Clemente Award for community service eight times, Tim won in 2010
• Wakefield was a first baseman until the minor leagues, and his Florida Tech number (3) was retired in 2006
• Wake converted to pitching full time the same year I was born, in 1990, with the Single-A Salem Buccaneers 
• With a single home run in his career (1993 with Pittsburgh), Wakefield wasn't a great hitter - but always a great teammate
• Wakefield took himself off the playoff roster in 2007, allowing the team to fill his slot with an uninjured player and win a World Series
• Tim Wakefield has the 56th most career strikeouts all-time, with 2,156
• Tim Wakefield pitched at my very first baseball game at Fenway Park

And yes, I know most of you don't care about the last one, but I'm full of nostalgia and I can't help myself.

Enjoy your retirement, Tim Wakefield

I think you all know how I feel about Tim Wakefield. He's been a part of the Red Sox since I was five years old.  I literally cannot remember a Red Sox team without Wake tossing the knuckler.

But it was time. Tim had a terrible second half last year, going 2-5 post All Star break, and he only won 4 games in 2010, with 10 losses. However, Wakefield has been well worth the few stinkers over the last few years, as he's been instrumental for seventeen.

Wake has been a starter, a middle-reliever, a mop-up guy, and even a closer, stepping up whenever the team was in need, and even last year's excruciating climb to 200 career wins doesn't begin to negate that kind of dedication.

In 2003, we all cried with Timmy at the end of the ALCS in New York, and then we celebrated harder than ever before just a year later when the Sox won it all in 2004.  In 2007, Wakey won a career high seventeen games and helped the Sox to their second title in just three years. In 2009, Wake won 11 games before the All Star break, and was named an MLB All Star for the first and only time in his long career.

Tim Wakefield will be announcing his retirement this evening at 5PM at JetBlue Park in Fort Myers.  Wake probably could have caught on with a team in the National League, but he's retiring as a Red Sox, and for that I tip my cap to him.

Happy trails, Wake - nineteen years in the majors, and seventeen with the Sox, it's been a good run, and it's time to say goodbye. Kudos to you for recognizing that time.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

I've waited long enough to see if we'll be getting any new and exciting pitching additions - Spring Training is fast approaching (and Lester is already in camp!), so it's high time to finish out the 2012 projections.

LHP Jon Lester:
2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
I thought James was being too pessimistic about Lester in his projection for 2011, and he turned out to be pretty much right on the nose.  Hopefully Lester can top this, but these numbers certainly aren't anything to scoff at.

RHP Josh Beckett:
2011 projection: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA, 49 BB, 155 SO
2011: 13-7, 30 starts, 193 IP, 2.89 ERA, 52 BB, 175 SO
2012 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 186 IP, 3.63 ERA, 53 BB, 169 SO
James underestimated Beckett last year, and I think there's a good chance he's done so again. Beckett came into camp last year with something to prove after his injury-marred 2010, and this year he'll have a chip on his shoulder about the way last year ended.


RHP Clay Buchholz:
2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO
2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
A lot of things went wrong in 2011, but losing Buchholz for the entire second half should not be overlooked: a healthy Clay and we probably would have been playing in October. That said, Buchholz has the Sox counting on him to be healthy, and he'll want to show that they were right to trust him - I think James is spot on.

Now comes the guesswork: will Alfredo Aceves be starting in 2012? How about Daniel Bard, who has also expressed interest? Will Tim Wakefield get invited to camp, or will we finally be saying goodbye? For the purposes of this post, I'll only be doing the projections for players James projected assuming they were starters (this means Aceves and Bard will be in the bullpen post - even if Valentine has them in the rotation).

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka:
2011 projection: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA, 73 BB, 158 SO
2011: 3-3, 7 starts, 37.1 IP, 5.30 ERA, 23 BB, 26 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 74 IP, 4.14 ERA, 37 BB, 66 SO
If you're like me, when Matsuzaka underwent Tommy John surgery last June, you were probably thinking "good riddance." I'd had enough of Matsuzaka, who has never been the pitcher for the Sox that he seems to be in Japan.  But on the bright side, he can't get much worse, and maybe after TJ he'll be better for his presumptive midseason return.

LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 14 starts, 65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 43 BB, 54 SO
2011: 6-3, 12 starts, 65 IP, 5.54 ERA, 41 BB, 50 SO
2012 projection: 3-5, 12 starts, 70 IP, 5.40 ERA, 47 BB, 58 SO
Obviously James isn't expecting Miller to start too much this year - and with those projected numbers, hopefully he won't.


RHP Tim Wakefield:
2011 projection: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 37 BB, 72 SO
2011: 7-8, 23 starts, 154 IP, 5.12 ERA, 47 BB, 93 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 80 IP, 4.16 ERA, 24 BB, 48 SO
Obviously, Wake's not even signed right now, and it would be putting Valentine in a rough position if they invited the 45-year-old knuckleballer to Spring Training. But for some reason, James thinks Wakefield's ERA will fall by nearly a run, but that he'll throw barely half the innings he did last year. We'll see.

After the top three (37- 27 combined), the dropoff is pretty steep. Though I wasn't sad to see the back of John Lackey for Tommy John surgery of his own, his absence really exposes how shallow this rotation is. Hopefully Cherington can pull something out of thin air.  In-house possibilities include Junichi Tazawa, Stolmy Pimentel (though he's just 22 and needs some more seasoning), Felix Doubront, Aceves, and Bard (though the latter two would leave GAPING holes in the bullpen). None of these players were included in James' 2012 Handbook as starters, so their numbers aren't in this post.

Tim Wakefield: 200 Game WINNER.

Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield finally got to the 200-win mark this evening during the Red Sox romp against the Blue Jays.  On his eighth try for history, Wake was less than spectacular, allowing five runs in six innings, and departing when the Sox had a narrow one-run lead.

The blew it open after that, absolutely going to town on the Jays' pen, and looking for all the world like they were unleashing the pent-up aggression from their frustrating losing streak.

I'm going to keep this post short: you all know how I feel about Wakey, and I won't bore you with an account of how every win counts at this point.  You know as well as I do, as well as the Sox do, that the Rays are coming for us, that objects in mirror are closer than they appear, and that the division is ours for the taking - and missing the playoffs isn't yet out of the question, either.

Hopefully this victory can galvanize the troops for the home stretch - every inning counts.

Tough luck, Timmy

 [Cartoon from Boston Dirt Dogs - I'm unsure of the date.]

Tim Wakefield was yet again denied his 200th win - despite leaving the game with a comfortable 8-5 lead.  Once again, the bullpen just couldn't do it for the iron man knuckler.

Unsurprisingly, in public Wakefield downplayed the personal importance of a 200th career win with the Red Sox, instead emphasizing the team angle, that the important thing now is for the RED SOX to win games, and get to the postseason: “If it happens, it happens.  If it doesn’t, it doesn’t change what I’ve done. I’d like it to happen. But more importantly, I think, is for us to get into the postseason. … That’s our ultimate goal.”

He's correct, of course, that not reaching 200 wins wouldn't change what he's done for the Sox in his nineteen-year career (seventeen years in Boston).  The fans (including yours truly) will still love and respect him, and I think we can all agree that we'd rather see a Pennant and a World Series win than Wakey's 200th W.

That said, I would REALLY like to see Tim Wakefield reach this milestone.  Over the course of his career he's been a team player (with a few notable, passive-aggressive exceptions in the last couple of years), and a perennial contributor to charity endeavors of all kinds. The cool thing about a team like the Red Sox is that not only are the fans all pulling for Wake, the players are, too. Judging by Daniel Bard's reaction to blowing the lead last night, I think we can safely say that he might have been more upset that Wakey was.

Personally, I'm not giving up hope, yet. The season has a few more weeks to go - and even if Tim Wakefield gets moved to the bullpen for the duration of the postseason (not unlikely), he has a good sporting chance of reaching his milestone.

Tim Wakefield: Ironman

Yesterday afternoon, during a typical day game/Mariners beat-down at the Fens, Tim Wakefield continued his solid march toward Red Sox immortality, notching his 2,000th career strikeout with the team, and his 199th career Red Sox win.

Wakey had a bit of a shaky start, giving up three two runs in the top of the first inning, but his teammates were there to back him up, putting a five up on the scoreboard in the bottom half of the first - a nice change, since Wakefield traditionally hasn't enjoyed great run support.

The streaking Sox blew the thing open in the fifth, tacking on another five runs, allowing Wake to stay in the game for the sixth, where he struck out Mike Carp to tally his 2,000th strikeout in a Red Sox uniform.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia was catching, and he headed out:

"I knew it was the 2000th. I gave him the ball and gave him a hug to congratulate him...  Not that guys watch their stats, but that’s a pretty big number so I assumed he knew he was getting close. When I told him, he was like, ‘Congratulations for what?’ I was like, ‘Crap, did I get this wrong?’ I wanted to make sure," he said. "I looked at the [video] board and it said 2,000. He looked up and saw it and just started smiling."

I've made my feelings about Wake pretty clear on this blog: I LOVE HIM.  Over the years, he's done it all for the Sox, from eating innings in the bullpen, to starting, to closing, and though there were some minor hiccups last season with his role, he's been relatively flexible over the years.  Timmy's next win will be his 200th (186th as a Red Sox), and he keeps marching his way toward the team wins record of 192, currently held by some guys named Cy Young and Roger Clemens.

Wake lacks the pure electricity of either of these pitchers, and his status in the record book is a testament to his longevity and tenacity.  Tim Wakefield is Boston's own Ironman, and I for one am extremely proud of him.


[Quotes in this post are from the Boston Globe's Extra Bases Blog.]

Jason Varitek Celebrity Putt Putt

As any of you who follow me on Twitter know, my friend Soni and I attended Jason Varitek's Celebrity Putt Putt on Thursday evening.  Why am I just posting about this now? MY COMPUTER IS FINALLY FIXED [also, I love Apple for extending my warranty for no extra charge!].  So I hope to close out July with a lot more entries to make up for the terrible job I've been doing so far this summer.  So, without any further ado, I present a flurry of photos from the event, with a little bit of commentary:

  

The entire event was awesome - I only wish more players had come.  Those in attendance included Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jed Lowrie, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, and, of course, Varitek himself.  Tek and Salty each signed two baseballs for me (well, one was for my brother-in-law).  Autograph seekers were aided and abetted by none other than Tek's fiance, Catherine Panagiotopoulos (bet she can't wait to change that name).

I really can't say enough nice things about Catherine: she was beyond friendly to everyone crowded around, and even carted armfuls of baseballs, photos, and memorabilia from the fans to Varitek, making it her personal mission to assure that everyone who wanted an autograph received one. (She's pictured above, signing a T-shirt for a staff member, and golfing.)

Overall, I would call the event a HUGE success - Soni and I certainly had a wonderful time - and it was extremely affordable, as Sox charity events go, at just $50 per person.  Proceeds from the event went to Journey Forward, an organization looking to improve the lives of people who have suffered spinal cord injuries through participation in sports. 

I'll close this post with a sentiment from Thursday night, which I stand by still, even three days later:

And he thanked me.

James Shields: Dream Crusher

As the Remdawg said after the final out of the ninth, "he was outstanding."  Sadly, James Shields shut down the Red Sox for a full nine innings, allowing just five hits and three walks in his third shutout of the season.  Sadly, Tim Wakefield's quality start was wasted, as the knuckleballer went seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits and five walks.

The Sox didn't do too much to help themselves, as they grounded into three inning-ending double plays, despite the fact that "Big-Game James" as he calls himself, has historically had very limited success against the Red Sox.

The local nine, of course, saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end, and as the Yankees are currently administering a beating to the Rangers in the Bronx, both the Rays and Yankees will pick likely up a game on the Red Sox in the American League East standings.

The story of the night was Carl Crawford's return to the Trop for the first time since signing with the division rival Red Sox this past offseason.  The left-fielder definitely heard some boos as he came to the plate for the first time, but there were more cheers - I think most Tampa Bay fans realize what he did for the team, and they certainly can't expect all of their players to sign team-friendly, long-term deals like Evan Longoria did.

Like I said in my last post, winning is the best revenge, and the Rays certainly didn't need Crawford tonight - Shields performance was more than enough to get them the win.  It's just a pity that it came against Wakefield, who is inching closer to the Red Sox all-time record for wins (192, held jointly by Roger Clemens and Cy Young). 

Timmy is just 10 wins away, and time is ticking... it's unlikely that the Sox will sign him for next season, and it sucks when Wake gets a worthy start wasted.  However, as much as it pains me to say this, Shields deserved the win tonight.  Hopefully Wakefield gets to stay in the rotation and keep chugging toward his dream.

I'M BACK!

And, in more exciting news, so are the Red Sox.  Despite the fact that the local nine only managed to split yesterday's doubleheader, they're still tied for first place in the AL East.  After that brutal beginning, who would have thought we'd recover by Memorial Day?

Admittedly, we owe some thanks to the Yankees and the Rays (and all of their successful opponents, of course) for dragging their feet out of the gate, as well.  Somehow, we've survived injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey, and while Lackey looks to be on his way back soonish, there are whispers of Tommy John surgery for Matsuzaka.

Tito claims that surgery is not a possibility, but there's also no word as to when the enigma will be returning.  Luckily, Alfredo Aceves and Tim Wakefield have been performing admirably in the meantime.  Each of these "placeholders" have notched two wins already this season, and it will be interesting to see who gets pushed into the bullpen when Lackey makes his (hopefully) triumphant return.

My bet is on Aceves, since he's the more conventional hurler, and Wakefield has made it known in recent years how he feels about the bullpen.  We all know about Tito's loyalty to his veterans, and Wake is the capital-"V" veteran of this team.

Whatever happens, I'm just SO HAPPY to be back home where I can watch EVERY Red Sox game on NESN on my very own TV, where I don't have to fight with the internet of MLB.tv, and where I can't go anywhere without seeing somebody wearing a Sox hat. Home sweet home, indeed.

Wakefield and Crawford: Sox heroes of the day

Despite missing most of today's game because I was slightly lost in Buenos Aires, I couldn't be happier right now.  While I was lost and confused, I had the best ice cream of my life, and I returned to my homestay to find the Red Sox tied in the 8th inning, that Tim Wakefield had tossed 5.2 innings of shutout ball, and that my internet was actually fast enough to stream the rest of the game.

I couldn't be happier for Wake, who really deserved to get the win.  Alas, Bobby Jenks came in and gave up two runs, so a "W" just wasn't in the cards today.  Nevertheless, Wakefield certainly deserved the ovation he reportedly got when leaving the mound this afternoon.  After last year, when he was often sarcastic and passive-aggressive about his reduced role, Wakefield has taken things in stride this year.  He's mopped up more than a few games at this point, and was ready and very able to take the ball for the spot start this afternoon.

The Red Sox certainly needed a performance like Wake's today.  When I realized that he was going against King Felix, I was extremely worried, and had even conceded the game in my head; what business does a 44-year-old knuckleballer have beating the reigning AL Cy Young winner? (Yes, I know Papelbon is TECHNICALLY credited with the win, but it's a moral victory for Wake.)

This win brings the Red Sox to 12-15, last in the AL East, and 5 games behind the streaking Yankees.  The victory was much needed, and brought some much needed spotlight to Carl Crawford, who knocked in Jed Lowrie to win in the bottom of the ninth.  In a quick interview with Heidi Watney after the game, Crawford acknowledged how nice it was to do something to win the game, and how much the Red Sox - and he - needed some success.

Thankfully the Angels come to town starting tomorrow - hopefully the Red Sox can start a long winning streak against them, juts like they did out in Anaheim last week.  Clay Buchholz gets the ball tomorrow... hopefully he's recovered from his "internal issues" enough to notch a quality start.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

Yesterday we established that the 2010 version of the Red Sox performed at a poorer than expected level because of pitching, and not (exclusively) injuries. This was particularly surprising because the rotation was the one thing we all figured we wouldn't have to worry about: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka - and we even had Wakefield, who, despite his age and lack of consistency, is a hell of a sixth man.

However, there were injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka, and Lackey was rather less productive than we'd collectively hoped (I suppose you could say he was LACKing - get it?!?). The bullpen was a volitile mess, especially if you look at their performance without counting the stats from Bard and Paps (who had his worst season, but still superior to most relievers).

So what's in store for next year? No one can know for sure, but the Bill James Handbook at least offers predictions based on math I don't really understand, rather than total guesses pulled out of thin air.

So, without further ado, here are James' predictions for members of the presumptive pitchers for the 2011 Sox (accompanied by their 2010 numbers):

Josh Beckett:2010: 6-6, 21 starts, 127.2 IP, 5.78 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA
Beckett's lost season was a HUGE part of the reason the Sox missed out on the playoffs in 2010, and even a reasonable bounce back like the one James is predicting would give the Red Sox a fantastic edge.

Clay Buchholz:2010: 17-7, 28 starts, 173.2 IP, 2.33 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA
I'm going to go on record here and guess that James is underestimating Clay. The dominance we saw last season was not a fluke, and I'm confident Buchholz can be consistent in 2011. There's a reason Theo hasn't accepted any trade offers for Clay, and what we saw last year was just the beginning.

John Lackey:2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
When I actually saw Lackey's 2010 stats, I have to confess to being a bit surprised that he was such an innings-eater. If he can live up to these predictions as the third/fourth starter, I will be content.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:2010: 9-6, 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 4.69 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA
Again, I'll take it. No, Matsuzaka has never been the ace we thought we were getting way back in the offseason of 2007, but (aside from his lost 2009) he's been more than adequate for the back of the rotation, and I expect he'll continue to be consistent(ly infuriating to watch).

Jon Lester:2010: 19-9, 32 starts, 208 IP, 3.25 ERA
2011 prediction: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA
I think Lester will do better than this, especially if he can figure out how to avoid the awful April we've come to expect from him. James badly underestimated Lester in his predictions for 2010, and I think he's cut the southpaw short again this year.

Tim Wakefield:2010:4-10, 19 starts, 130 IP 5.34 ERA
2011 predictions: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA
If Wake gets to start at all in 2011, it will be spot starts here and there. The knuckleballer's career is winding down, and though it's hard to say goodbye, this season will likely be his last.

I'm going to leave the relievers out of this equation for now, since roles and such will be in flux, and the Sox bullpen is likely going to see some serious revamping before Opening Day (which is MUCH too far away). But, if the members of the rotation listed above can match their projections (and if one or two of them *cough*Buchholz*Lester*cough* can exceed them), I think 2011 will be a much more productive year for the Sox, at least pitching-wise.

Five-Minute Musings

I have a few minutes before class this morning, and thought I would post a quick rundown of recent events:

1.) The Oakland Atheltics have reportedly made a five-year, $64 million dollar offer to Adrian Beltre. According to the Globe's Nick Cafardo (as reported by Pete Abraham), the Sox are willing to go up to four years, $52 million. In fantasy land, Agent Scott Boras is claiming that the third baseman is worth five-years, ninety million dollars. So what is Beltre worth to the Red Sox? And what is being in a competitive, passionate city worth to Beltre? Last year, he turned down bigger money from the A's to come to the spotlight in Boston, but he was also looking to be showcased so he could get a big deal this year. Players don't hire Boras because team loyalty means a lot to them, so this could be interesting as it unfolds. Stay tuned.

2.) Tom Werner is looking to appease fans who were under the impression that the 2010 Sox were based on spare parts so he could fund his little soccer venture in England. [Pretend for a second that statement isn't ludicrous, that the Sox didn't have the second highest payroll in MLB last year, and that they didn't sign the biggest pitching free agent in the '09-'10 offseason. Theo said BRIDGE YEAR, so they obviously weren't trying.] He has gone on record as claiming the Sox will make a significant splash in the free agent market: “I think that we are going to sign, I won’t promise, but we’re going to sign a significant free agent. We are going to make a trade to improve ourselves,” Werner said. “I want to assure everybody that there is no bridge year here this year. [In] 2011, we’re committed to win.”

3.) The Red Sox were just honored by Major League Baseball for their charitable endeavors as an organization. From a release by MLB, via the Boston Globe Extra Bases blog: "Major League Baseball and Baseball Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig have named the Boston Red Sox as the inaugural recipients of the Commissioner's Award for Philanthropic Excellence, which was created to recognize the charitable and philanthropic efforts of an MLB Club." Obviously, the Red Sox encourage their players to both be active within the Red Sox Foundation, and to support their own charities, and it seems like that work is getting some recognition. The really cool part is that this comes just week after Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield received the Roberto Clemente Award. It makes this organization easy to support.

4.) Ron Gardenhire (Twins) was named the AL manager of the year yesterday (the Padres' Bud Black took home the honor for the senior circuit). I was holding out some hope for Tito, who placed fourth, and if the Sox could have scraped a playoff berth, I really think he would have made it. People around here are constantly screaming about "Fran-coma" and how terrible he is, and how they could do his job so much better. To those people I say: SHUT UP. Terry Francona led a bag of beleaguered major leaguers and spare minor league parts to 89 wins last season. Do you honestly think you would have done any better?

5.) I would like to point out that the offseason coverage by the team over at boston.com has been spectacular thus far. Of course, I have come to expect a certain degree of excellence from the Globe, but the amount of info that they're giving us on a daily basis is more than you could expect from any other team in any other market. In particular, I would like to extend a shout-out to Pete Abraham, who is constantly updating the Extra Bases blog, and also because he's a generally nice guy (last spring, I had to do a project on athletes as role models, and Pete Abe was nice enough to answer the email I sent him, asking for imput). So, thank you Mr. Abraham, and thank you to your fellow writers on the Sox beat: without you all, we'd be even more starved for baseball.

The Gift that Keeps on Giving

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. This seemed like the lifetime refrain for the forty-four year old Tim Wakefield, a man who performed consistently for years upon years with very few individual accolades. Sure, he came in third for the AL Cy Young Award way back in 1995 (his first year in Boston), but that was really the only recognition he received, and it would have to tide him over until 2009.

Last summer, after a fantastic first half, Wake was selected to participate the All-Star Game in St. Louis, and was excited as any rookie, despite the fact that he was between 10 and 20 years older than many of his teammates. Unfortunately, AL Manager Joe Maddon didn't put Shakey Wakey into the game, and I know I can't be the only Red Sox fan that's still miffed about it.

Despite the fluctuations in ERA for Wakefield from year-to-year, he has managed to pitch a career average 202 innings each season, and even managed 140 frames this season, despite his advancing age and exile to the bullpen. But no matter what was going on between the foul lines, you could always depend on Wakefield to do his fair share - and more - of charity work.

He runs the Wakefield Warriors program, works with the Space Coast Early Intervention Center in Florida, and is an avid supporter of the Jimmy Fund. Tim Wakefield has been nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award eight times, making him sort of like the Susan Lucci of the prestigious baseball/service award, which goes to a player with great accomplishments on the field, and an outstanding dedication to community service off it.

As always, Wake was gracious: "You've probably heard me say this 1,000 times: It really doesn't matter what you do on the field. What matters most is making a difference in someone else's life. Roberto was a class act when it came to that. This is the ultimate. This is the highest. This has nothing to do with baseball. It has nothing to do with your statistics or anything. It has to do with your character. You guys who know me in Boston, I take a lot of pride in my character. This is an award for character, which ultimately is the highest accomplishment I can attain, or the highest compliment you can get from somebody. I'm very honored and humbled at the same time to accept this award."

He went on to note that he felt he really understood Clemente's legacy, having come up in the Pirates' system, and praised the famous outfielder lavishly: "Not only was he a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players ever to play the game, but for what he did off the field, it really epitomizes what I think athletes and people should be like."

Tim Wakefield may not have the sheer physical gifts and talents that the great Roberto Clemente was blessed with, but he has certainly made the most of his own ability, and, perhaps most importantly, Wakefield has used his influence as an athlete to improve the lives of countless others.

It's possible that we have seen Wakefield's last pitch in Boston: though he is under contract for next year, there has been speculation that the Sox would swallow the money in favor of rotation and bullpen flexibility. I hope to see Wakefield continue his work, both on the diamond and off, but if the time has come to say goodbye, at least he's one out with a bang.

Good Vibrations

I'm not entirely sure why, but I have a good feeling about the second half of the season. I suppose my philosophy is somewhere along the lines of "what [more] have we got to lose?"

I think Big Papi said it best in his blog: "Injuries were killing us, and the clubhouse is a hospital right now, you know what I'm saying? You have to be walking carefully in there just in case. Everybody is getting hurt so easy and in a way you wouldn't even expect."

Seriously. All these people injured with incidents like fouling a ball off their own foot; colliding with a teammate; running to second base; sports hernias; freak back problems; colliding with that teammate again... the list goes on. (I wonder if Beltre has collision insurance?) I half-expected to see a press release with something like "Kevin Youkilis strangled by own goatee, placed on 60 day DL," or "Adrian Beltre collides with himself, placed on permanent DL."

One man wrecking crew.

This team has had an extraordinary run of poor luck, and it's just got to turn around soon. The All-Star Break couldn't have come at a better time, and even though the American League finally lost it (thanks, Girardi), I couldn't be happier with the events of the last few days. Papi wins the Home Run Derby, Girardi loses the All-Star Game and thus makes the Yankees look bad, and our injured troops got a few days more to rest.

Tim Wakefield goes tonight against Tommy Hunter of the Texas Rangers. Here's hoping Wake continues that march toward the title of winningest Sox pitcher by pitching a gem to start of the second half in proper fashion.