North of the border, a roller coaster win for Red Sox

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When Clay Buchholz gave up three runs in the bottom of the first inning yesterday at Rogers Centre, all I could think was, Here we go again.

But Buchholz got himself out of the inning - and through six more without giving up another run. It's a testament to Buchholz that he didn't melt down completely, even though it was clear early on that he didn't have his best stuff.

It certainly helped that Buchholz's teammates regained the lead for him in the top of the third, led by a grad slam by the often-frustrating A.J. Pierzynski, and a solo home run by prodigal son Will Middlebrooks.

Interestingly enough, it was only after Buchholz left the game that things got tense. The bullpen has so far been the most reliable part of the Red Sox season, but yesterday was an exception. Junichi Tazawa came in for the eighth inning, and promptly gave up a home run.

Traditionally, Tazawa has not pitched well at Rogers Centre (his ERA in Canada is 9.00 - the second worst of anywhere he's pitched after the 27.00 ERA he put up in the third of an inning he pitched at Dodger Stadium).

After Tazawa gave up his second run, John Farrell called out to the bullpen for Chris Capuano, who managed a strikeout and a walk before being replaced by Koji Uehara. The ever-reliable Uehara got the final out in the eighth, and then closed out the ninth - albeit with the slight hiccup of giving a home run to Jose Bautista.

It was a wild ride from start to finish - but even the ugly wins count. Jon Lester takes the mound tonight against knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, giving the Red Sox a chance to sweep the series and get back to .500 on the season.

"It's the pitching, stupid."

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For all the shenanigans that went on last night, from the successful Big Papi pep talk to the game-ending pickoff of Kolten Wong, it would be easy to forget the most important piece of the victory. To paraphrase former President Bill Clinton, "It's the pitching, stupid."

The storyline coming into the game was all Clay Buchholz all the time. Buchholz had infamously declared that he thought he had "one more start" in him, and the internet went absolutely wild with speculation over his velocity and effectiveness before he ever took the mound.

Once he made it out onto the field, all the doom and gloom predictors took one look at the radar gun as confirmation of their worst fears. Buchholz hit 90 mph just a handful of times, but he allowed only a single run (unearned) in four full innings. As John Farrell said, "he gave us everything he could."

After Buchholz left, Felix Doubront came in, pitched 2.2 scoreless innings, and earned the win. Many of us scratched our heads when Farrell pulled Doubront in favor of Craig Breslow - the biggest error of the night, as it turned out, because Breslow immediately allowed an inherited runner to score.

But then Junichi Tazawa came in and put out the fire, allowing the Red Sox to escape the seventh inning with their lead intact.

Game 6 starter John Lackey came in for the eighth inning, faced four batters, and held the lead for Koji Uehara, who picked off Wong to end the game.

It was a true team effort, and I want to make sure none of these contributions get overlooked. Buchholz's gutsy start fell far short of his regular season standard, but he battled harder than any starter I've seen this postseason.

John Lackey was on his side day, so his pitching an inning won't effect his ability to start on Wednesday - but the difference between throwing a side session in the bullpen and a meaningful eight inning in a World Series game cannot be overstated. Though it's been nine years since Lackey threw a pitch in relief (to David Ross, of all people), he handled it like the professional he is.

Doubront was fantastic, Tazawa reliable - and of course, Koji Uehara was excellent.

After a night where Jonny Gomes was the main story, there wouldn't be a story at all without the combined efforts of Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey, Tazawa, and Uehara. It was the pitching, stupid.

ALDS Game 2 Hopes for John Lackey and Co.

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Today is the first ACC football game here at Syracuse University, so of course I'll be there. However, kickoff is at 3:30pm, and Game 2 of the Red Sox/Rays ALDS starts at 5:37pm, so I'll probably leave at halftime to get home in time for my real love in life: baseball.

Yesterday's game was glorious. I won't rehash all of my reactions here (if you want them, check out the premier episode of my new podcast), but I will say that my favorite part of Game 1 was the team-first nature of the victory.

Sure, my favorite player is Dustin Pedroia; anyone who's spent two minutes with me or on this blog could tell you that. Yes, it was awesome that Pedey had the first hit in the Red Sox rally.

But the most incredible thing about yesterday was the most incredible thing about this team: it was truly a collaborative effort. Every Red Sox batter had at least one hit and one run scored. No Red Sox batter had a home run, and all that incredible production was the result of guys getting on base and trusting their compatriots to drive them in.

Jon Lester had an incredible start, and Junichi Tazawa and Ryan Dempster finished the game with barely a hiccup. Fenway aficionado John Lackey takes the mound tonight. The last time Lackey pitched in an ALDS, he took home the win - for the Angels, against Lester in 2009.

Once upon a time, before Tommy John surgery, before the chicken and beer debacle, John Lackey was lauded as a big-game pitcher. The Angels handed him the ball in their biggest moments, and he didn't let them down.

After a tough first few years in Boston, and the beginnings of redemption this season, John Lackey will climb the mound tonight looking to be that big-game guy once again. Earlier this season, I predicted a John Lackey resurgence... hopefully he'll continue to provide evidence for that point of view tonight.

And hopefully his teammates can duplicate some of the offensive fireworks from yesterday against Rays ace David Price. I have a good feeling about tonight.

Red Sox Never Say Die

[If you haven't seen The Goonies, drop whatever you're doing right now and go watch it.]

Like the Goonies, the 2013 Red Sox never say die. This season, the Sox have come from behind to win 28 games, most recently last night's contest against the Toronto Blue Jays.

As has been the case so many times this season, the win was a true team effort. Starter Ryan Dempster went seven innings and allowed just one run, leaving the game in line for the win. Unfortunately for Dempster, Junichi Tazawa came in and gave up a home run to J.P. Arencibia.

Arencibia's homer tied up the game, and was just the eighth home run allowed by Tazawa in 55.2 innings pitched this year. Craig Breslow pitched an inning before handing the ball off to Koji Uehara, who pitched 1.1 innings, and earned the win after Shane Victorino knocked in two Red Sox runs in the 11th inning.

In past years I haven't been able to muster much optimism when the Red Sox end up in extra innings on the road. Inevitably, I'd stay awake to watch the other team walk off, deliriously happy with their victory.

That hasn't been the case this year. This team seems to want it more than their opponents, and more than previous Red Sox teams. I'll happily stay up to the wee hours of the morning on a daily basis to watch the Sox win games like last night's.

It's always about the pitching

Jon Lester was less than spectacular last night, but he managed to get the job done, allowing all four Blue Jays runs in seven innings last night in the 7-4 Red Sox victory. Lester departed the mound in the top of the eighth inning with a jammed hip. At the time of the injury, the lefty was at 94 pitches, and could probably have completed the inning if not for the wet mound that caused him to slip.

Luckily for the Red Sox, Lester has reported that he feels fine, and that neither he nor the Sox medical staff is concerned about any long-lasting effects or missing any future starts. Junichi Tazawa took over for Lester and pitched a clean eighth inning before giving way to closer Koji Uehara for the ninth. Uehara faced the minimum number of Jays batters and struck out two of three to earn his third save of the season.

On the Jays' side of things, Chien-Ming Wang couldn't even make it through two innings, retiring just five Red Sox in his shortened outing, and allowing all seven Red Sox runs in the bottom of the second inning before being pulled for reliever Aaron Loup. Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons had to use four relief pitchers to get through the game, which is certainly a boon to the Red Sox as this series still has three games to go, and a tired opposing bullpen is always an advantage.

Hopefully the Red Sox bats can get to Josh Johnson just as quickly as they got to Wang, because rookie righthander Allen Webster will take the mound for the home team tonight, and he was beat up pretty badly by the Tigers in the first inning of his last start before settling in. Webster is the not-so-proud owner of a 11.25 ERA to go with his 0-2 record and is looking to prove himself, though it's common knowledge that his time is limited regardless of performance, as he'll be optioned back to Pawtucket when Clay Buchholz returns.

Another blown save for Bailey

After a strange last outing in which he blew the save and then was credited with the win (sometimes baseball rules are weird), Andrew Bailey looked to redeem himself this evening. He came on with a one-run lead, and promptly allowed a walk off homer to Jhonny Peralta. John Lackey pitched very well - much like Felix Doubront did on Tuesday - but could not claim the win because Bailey couldn't lock it down.

So now what? The Red Sox started the season with a surplus of closing options, but now Joel Hanrahan has had season-ending surgery and Andrew Bailey has blown two saves in a row. Any baseball fan around my age or older remembers what a catastrophic failure the "closer by committee" experiment was, but there is no obvious Plan C if Bailey's troubles can't be straightened out.

Junichi Tazawa has a few saves to his credit this season, but in my opinion there's more value in his current role, able to go out and pitch multiple innings on a pretty regular basis. Koji Uehara is always fun to watch, and he clearly thrives on the adrenaline rush of a successful single inning, displaying what could be defined as the "closer's mentality, but you have to be concerned by Uehara's age: the 38-year-old righty can't pitch multiple days in a row.

The Red Sox bullpen has some pretty intriguing and successful arms, but they all work so well where they are - aside from the recent spate of blown saves, the 'pen has been a clear strength this season. There's talk about looking to trade for a closer, and if/when Will Middlebrooks gets his bat up to speed, Stephen Drew could be interesting trade bait. One thing is certain: if Andrew Bailey can't get his act together, he can't be the Red Sox closer much longer.

Koji Uehara with the save

Koji Uehara is way too much fun. Every time Uehara gets out of an inning, he requests (and receives) high fives from everybody on the team, coaches, players, training staff, and translators. Last night, when Uehara earned his first save of the season in extra innings, he didn't disappoint and the high fiving was just as enthusiastic as ever.

The Red Sox are Uehara's third major league team, as he made his debut for the Orioles in 2009, and after spending two seasons plus in Baltimore, he ended up pitching for the Texas Rangers in 2011 and 2012. He was one of the free agents the Sox signed this offseason with little fanfare, expecting him to be a one-inning per outing guy, which is pretty much what we've seen.

With Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan both on the roster, no one considered the possibility that Uehara might close even a single game - indeed, even with both of them on the disabled list, John Farrell had said that Junichi Tazawa would have the job. But Tazawa pitched two innings and got the win on Thursday, so Uehara got the call last night in the bottom of the tenth inning - and he certainly came through.

Middlebrooks comes through

When Will Middlebrooks came to the plate with two outs in the top of the ninth inning, the Red Sox were down by two runs with the bases loaded. Middlebrooks didn't have much to show for his earlier plate appearances, as he was 0-for-2 with a walk up to that point. But none of that mattered, because with two strikes on him, Middlebrooks laid off a high fastball from Rays closer Fernando Rodney, took the next offering (a changeup), and lined it into right field.

Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Daniel Nava scored on Middlebrooks' double, and the Red Sox took a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth. With Andrew Bailey still on the disabled list, Junichi Tazawa came in to try to lock things down, and he successfully got the save, allowing the Red Sox to take the rubber match of the series.

Even Felix Doubront had a pretty solid outing - though he did not get the win, he managed to go five plus innings and give up just two earned runs, even wiggling out of a tough situation when he loaded the bases in the first inning, somehow getting out untagged. The bullpen pulled out a piecemeal effort, as Clayton Mortensen managed just a third of an inning and gave up a run, but Andrew Miller, Craig Breslow, and Tazawa pitched the rest of the game cleanly.

It was certainly a feel-good win, as the homegrown fan-favorite Middlebrooks provided the offense needed, and the Red Sox strung two wins together for the first time since their last series in Baltimore two weeks ago. Tomorrow the Sox head to Minnesota for a three game set, and hopefully they can bring some momentum with them to Target Field, as they only managed to take one game out of three from the Twins last week at Fenway. Clay Buchholz (6-0) will get the start for the Sox, against Vance Worley (1-4).

Closer woes

Just one day after Jon Lester came one batter away from a perfect game to stop a losing streak, the Red Sox lost a heartbreaker in the ninth inning to the Toronto Blue Jays. It's time to address the elephant in the clubhouse: the Red Sox are without a closer, yet again.

With Joel Hanrahan out for the season, and Andrew Bailey reporting that he'll be unable to return from the DL as soon as he's eligible, John Farrell has designated Junichi Tazawa as the stopgap closer. This afternoon, the stopgap closer blew a save after the Sox had rallied to take the lead.

The Extra Bases Blog over at Boston.com has a really great breakdown of the Red Sox closer struggles since they let Jonathan Papelbon back - so far, the financial investment in his replacements has made it seem like it would have been a more responsible decision to just pay him.  Personally, I have a lot of confidence in Andrew Bailey (in fact, I picked him up on both of my fantasy teams when the Sox first declared him the closer), but he can't seem to stay healthy. 

Pitching is the story

Just as the story in the Red Sox success so far in 2013 has been the pitching, the loss this evening was all about the men on the mound. Jon Lester was less than sharp, giving up five earned runs in six innings pitched, before giving way to Junichi Tazawa, who gave up two earned runs of his own and took the loss. Joel Hanrahan, fresh off the disabled list, took the ball for the bottom of the eighth inning and gave up the ninth and final Blue Jays run of the night.

And so even on a night when the offense scored seven runs, the Red Sox suffered the loss. David Ortiz led the drive with a home run and four RBIs, while Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes also had homers. But it doesn't really matter how many runs you score if your pitchers can't stop the other team from rounding the bases.

There are obviously going to be nights like this. I'm not worried about Jon Lester - he's been so incredibly solid so far, this is just a blip on the radar. I'm also unconcerned with Junichi Tazawa, because his stuff is great, and I'm confident that he'll go back to being an important part of the bullpen. I do have to admit to being somewhat worried about Joel Hanrahan - but even if he turns out to be an enormous flop, Andrew Bailey has proven he can be the everyday closer.

The Yankees are about to pick up a game on us (they're currently experiencing the joy of playing the Houston Astros), but the Sox have Clay Buchholz on the mound tomorrow, going for his sixth win. I'm not worried.

Sox topple A's

Despite giving up five walks and three earned runs over 6.2 innings, Felix Doubront earned his second win of the season this evening against the Oakland A's. The Athletics rolled into Fenway Park with a season record of 12-7, but it's worth noting that they've already played three games against the Mariners and six against the Astros (seriously, the Astros presence in the AL West is a literal GIFT to the other teams in that division).

It' always nice to start off a series with a win - and the Red Sox have done that in eery series so far in 2013. After yesterday's doubleheader, it was important for Doubront to log significant innings and preserve the bullpen, and though he struggled a little bit to be efficient, he made it into the seventh inning, with a sizable cushion provided by the offense.

Mike Napoli had a grand slam, and Will Middlebrooks made a start at breaking out of his slump with a three run homerun as the two led the offense to a nine-run outburst. The bullpen effort was spearheaded by Junichi Tazawa and Andrew Bailey, in what was truly a team effort. The Red Sox are first in the AL East, two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, and two-and-a-half ahead of the Yankees.

"Sellout" streak officially over

As awful as it was to watch last night's meltdown from Joel Hanrahan, there was a kind of poetic justice about the whole situation. It was the first officially un-soldout game in nearly a decade, and it somehow seemed to mirror the tendencies of the Red Sox over the last couple of years.

Things started off pretty evenly, as the Orioles scored, the Red Sox evened the score, and then the Red Sox pulled ahead by two runs - but the Orioles closed the gap heading into the rain delay. I know I came into the game with high hopes, after seeing the Sox dispose of the Orioles on Opening Day.

The first part of the game was like a microcosm of the 2011 season: the Sox got off to a 0-6 start, but managed to pull themselves out and back into contention by midseason, just as last night's squad fell behind but stayed within reach of a win by the rain delay. Post rain delay, Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit two home runs, resulting in jubilation among the Fenway faithful, much like the incredible summer we enjoyed in 2011.

And then Hanrahan came on to close things out. After Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Andrew Bailey each pitched a scoreless inning, Hanrahan came in and couldn't close the deal - like the September 2011 meltdown of the entire Red Sox pitching staff (and, even more specifically, then-closer Jonathan Papelbon's personal meltdown against the Orioles on the last day of the season).

Andrew Miller managed to come in and get the last out, but then the Red Sox could not score in the bottom of the ninth - an exercise in futility that resembled 2012 in its entirety.

And so whether you buy my metaphor, last night was the beginning of a new era for the Red Sox. Hopefully the end of the "sellout streak" (which was fraudulent by the end, let's be honest) can be a clean slate for the Sox. Even after last night's loss, the Red Sox are still in first place in the AL East. Alfredo Aceves takes the mound tonight for the series finale, and while I wouldn't have chosen him as the tone-setter, he definitely has something to prove.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

Red Sox Rookie Hazing

As you might guess (last roadtrip of the regular season), the rookie hazing was underway last night, and it had a Wizard of Oz theme.

Here's a few of Daniel Bard, the Not-So-Cowardly Lion:
Classic. Now, Junichi Tazawa, most confused Dorothy ever:
Michael Bowden, the sexy Tinman:
Finally, and least related to the Oz theme, George Kottaras, in a sailor suit:
All photos are courtesy of @GizaWBZ ... Thanks!