Red Sox crush Blue Jays

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Last night's Red Sox looked like an entirely different team than the one that got demolished by the Yankees on Thursday. Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino are back in action, and their presence helped the offense score eight runs on the hapless Blue Jays.

Jake Peavy pitched seven innings and gave up just a single run, then Chris Capuano and Andrew Miller each pitched a scoreless frame to finish out the contest.

Every Red Sox batter had at least one hit - and the seemingly hopeless A.J. Pierzynski had three. It was a game that triggered pleasant memories of last season, a fantastic romp through Rogers Centre that was almost enough to wipe away the rotten taste from the loss to the Yankees the night before.

Was yesterday's game the harbinger of things to come? Have the Red Sox turned the corner on their horrible start? The return of Middlebrooks and Victorino certainly won't hurt - and now that we know about secret knuckleballer Mike Carp, things are looking up.

Exactly as planned

Last night's game went as well as you could hope (excepting Andrew Bailey's seventh inning struggles), as the red hot Red Sox bats managed to oust Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson just one out into the fourth inning. Meanwhile, rookie Allen Webster managed to lower his abysmal 11.25 ERA to a merely terrible 9.50 with six innings pitched and four earned runs allowed.

Webster did improve upon his last outing, allowing six hits in six innings, as opposed to 8 hits in just 4.1 innings last week in Detroit, and he showed pretty good control in last night's game, walking just two batters and striking out three. Webster is definitely improving, and as this was his first season playing even as high as AAA, I'd say he has a very bright future; indeed, he's making me feel woefully unaccomplished, as the righthander is nearly a month younger than I am, and already a big league pitcher.

Webster departed in the sixth inning with a lead, looking to earn his first major league win, but Andrew Bailey came in and recorded two strikeouts before allowing a two-out home run to Edwin Encarnacion, tying the game and erasing Webster as the pitcher of record. Andrew Miller pitched the end of the seventh and the eighth, earning himself a win when Jonny Gomes put the Red Sox on top for good with a pinch hit RBI single, followed by a Jarrod Saltalamachia walk that forced in an insurance run.

For the third day in a row, Koji Uehara, aptly described by Globe reported Peter Abraham as "the game's most exitable 38-year-old," earned the save and copious high fives from his teammates, coaches, translators, and training staff.  Unfortunately for the Jays, their bullpen didn't come through to the extent that Boston's did, as they needed five pitchers to get through the final 4.2 innings.

You really couldn't script things much better than this from the Red Sox point of view, as they've already guaranteed themselves the series split with two games to go. They're still in line for a four-game sweep of a division rival, and they've put themselves in good position to win the final two games, as they've pretty effectively abused the Jays bullpen for two straight days.

The Bearded Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have always been pretty lax when it comes to the physical appearances of their players. Until this season, there was no dress code for players on road trips (Terry Francona apparently just requested that they dress at least as well as he did, and Bobby V. kept expectations pretty much the same). John Farrell has changed that, as he has now required that his players wear a suit jacket when traveling, though ties are apparently optional.

But anything beyond that is up to the players discretion. The Yankees are [in]famous for never allowing facial hair below the mouth on their players, and no haircuts longer than the ears - a curious distinction that prevented Johnny Damon from manning the outfield resembling Jesus, but allowed Jason Giambi to parade around for years sporting a mustache that made him look like a '70s porn star.

The Red Sox have no such rules about hair length or personal grooming, and we've seen some interesting personal style over the last decade, from the aforementioned Damon, to the flowing deadlocks of Manny Ramirez, to the famous goatee (and one-time fu manchu) sported by Kevin Youkilis. Overall, players have been somewhat scruffy much of the time, but this season has included many more full beards than I remember seeing.

These styles include what I like to call the sometimes- or sparsely-bearded, pictured below:

Left to right, top row first: Pedro Ciriaco, Franklin Morales, Felix Doubront, Koji Uehara, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Junichi Tazawa, Shane Victorino, and John Lackey.

Of course, the semi-beardedness of some of these men might have more to do with sheer laziness than any actual attempt at maintaining facial hair. We see some of them clean-shaven at times, scruffy at others, and sometimes even with groomed goatees.

I think my personal favorite among the barely-there-beard coalition is Clayton Mortensen:

The tiny spot just underneath his mouth is often slightly off-center, but it's obvious that it takes significant maintenance to stay baby smooth and scruff free outside that one square inch. The style is too small to be a goatee, but I just can't use the phrase "soul patch" and Clayton Mortensen in the same sentence without giggling.

But the best of all belong to those who have allowed their facial hair to become a full fledged bushy beard. 

Left to right, top row first: Andrew Miller, Jonny Gomes, David Ross, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Carp, Ryan Dempster, and David Ortiz.

Napoli and Ortiz almost don't qualify, as they keep their beards so short, but one look at the precise shaping will tell you that these are men who take pride in their facial hair. Miller has even toned down his look from the beginning of the season, for a few weeks he looked positively wild. Miller, Gomes, Ross, Pedroia, Carp, and Dempster all sport what I like to refer to as "lumberjack beards."

Perhaps another time I'll go through the roster and compare the stats of the many bearded players to the few baby-faced ones, but for now this post was just for fun. It's much more entertaining when each player manages to showcase a personal look on the field, despite the fact that they all must dress alike. I'll take the style and personality of these Red Sox over the stuffiness and uniformity of the Yankees any day of the week.

Mother's Day mauling

The pitching woes continued for the Red Sox today, as Ryan Dempster gave up six runs in five innings, before giving way to three different relievers - only one of whom managed to pitch a clean outing. The worst of the lot was Andrew Miller, who only managed to record a single out while allowing three runs to score.

Jose De La Torre gave up a pair of runs in a single inning, while Clayton Mortensen was slightly better, giving up just one run in 1.2 innings, and only Craig Breslow managed to record a 0.00 ERA for the day while completing a single inning. The bullpen, heralded as a great strength of this team at the outset of the season, has become a liability.

Certainly, a large part of the bullpen's struggle has been injury-related, as the opening day closer is now out for the season, and his replacement is on the disabled list. But the big difference between the Red Sox incredible April and their so-far dismal May has been in the pitching - they managed to score four times today, and the score wasn't even close.

One of the things that we all looked forward to with the hiring of John Farrell was his expertise with the Red Sox pithing staff. He's certainly gotten Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester back on track, but his magic touch seems to be missing when it comes to the rest of the rotation and the bullpen. Pitching coach Juan Nieves has his work cut out for him lately, but if Farrell has faith in him, so do I.

Near no-hitter still a success for Buchholz

It's a strange day indeed when a 5-0 win is somewhat of a letdown, but here we are. Clay Buchholz held the Rays hitless through seven full innings this afternoon at Fenway Park before surrendering a broken-bat single to Rays' left fielder Kelly Johnson to lead off the eighth.

Buchholz was sharp, though not perfect, as he finished his outing with eight innings pitched, two hits, four walks,  and a creer-high eleven strikeouts in 106 pitches. The pitch count had John Farrell somewhat concerned, as Buchholz's walk and strikeout totals caused the total pitches to climb.

Farrell admitted in the post game press conference that he was somewhat relieved when Johnson finally earned a hit in the eighth - it's early in the season, and no one wants to have to decide between yanking a pitcher in the midst of a no-hitter and leaving him in too long and possibly damaging his arm for the rest of the season. Luckily Farrell didn't have to, and Andrew Miller came in with a scoreless ninth inning to finish things off.

It was truly a team effort, as the offense scored five times to give Buchholz a comfortable lead (though they waited until the third inning), and there was some fine work on the defensive side of things as well. Today's win guarantees a series win for the Sox, and since tomorrow's Patriot's Day morning contest is the third straight day game, it's nice to go into it with confidence.

"Sellout" streak officially over

As awful as it was to watch last night's meltdown from Joel Hanrahan, there was a kind of poetic justice about the whole situation. It was the first officially un-soldout game in nearly a decade, and it somehow seemed to mirror the tendencies of the Red Sox over the last couple of years.

Things started off pretty evenly, as the Orioles scored, the Red Sox evened the score, and then the Red Sox pulled ahead by two runs - but the Orioles closed the gap heading into the rain delay. I know I came into the game with high hopes, after seeing the Sox dispose of the Orioles on Opening Day.

The first part of the game was like a microcosm of the 2011 season: the Sox got off to a 0-6 start, but managed to pull themselves out and back into contention by midseason, just as last night's squad fell behind but stayed within reach of a win by the rain delay. Post rain delay, Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit two home runs, resulting in jubilation among the Fenway faithful, much like the incredible summer we enjoyed in 2011.

And then Hanrahan came on to close things out. After Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Andrew Bailey each pitched a scoreless inning, Hanrahan came in and couldn't close the deal - like the September 2011 meltdown of the entire Red Sox pitching staff (and, even more specifically, then-closer Jonathan Papelbon's personal meltdown against the Orioles on the last day of the season).

Andrew Miller managed to come in and get the last out, but then the Red Sox could not score in the bottom of the ninth - an exercise in futility that resembled 2012 in its entirety.

And so whether you buy my metaphor, last night was the beginning of a new era for the Red Sox. Hopefully the end of the "sellout streak" (which was fraudulent by the end, let's be honest) can be a clean slate for the Sox. Even after last night's loss, the Red Sox are still in first place in the AL East. Alfredo Aceves takes the mound tonight for the series finale, and while I wouldn't have chosen him as the tone-setter, he definitely has something to prove.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

I've waited long enough to see if we'll be getting any new and exciting pitching additions - Spring Training is fast approaching (and Lester is already in camp!), so it's high time to finish out the 2012 projections.

LHP Jon Lester:
2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
I thought James was being too pessimistic about Lester in his projection for 2011, and he turned out to be pretty much right on the nose.  Hopefully Lester can top this, but these numbers certainly aren't anything to scoff at.

RHP Josh Beckett:
2011 projection: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA, 49 BB, 155 SO
2011: 13-7, 30 starts, 193 IP, 2.89 ERA, 52 BB, 175 SO
2012 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 186 IP, 3.63 ERA, 53 BB, 169 SO
James underestimated Beckett last year, and I think there's a good chance he's done so again. Beckett came into camp last year with something to prove after his injury-marred 2010, and this year he'll have a chip on his shoulder about the way last year ended.


RHP Clay Buchholz:
2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO
2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
A lot of things went wrong in 2011, but losing Buchholz for the entire second half should not be overlooked: a healthy Clay and we probably would have been playing in October. That said, Buchholz has the Sox counting on him to be healthy, and he'll want to show that they were right to trust him - I think James is spot on.

Now comes the guesswork: will Alfredo Aceves be starting in 2012? How about Daniel Bard, who has also expressed interest? Will Tim Wakefield get invited to camp, or will we finally be saying goodbye? For the purposes of this post, I'll only be doing the projections for players James projected assuming they were starters (this means Aceves and Bard will be in the bullpen post - even if Valentine has them in the rotation).

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka:
2011 projection: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA, 73 BB, 158 SO
2011: 3-3, 7 starts, 37.1 IP, 5.30 ERA, 23 BB, 26 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 74 IP, 4.14 ERA, 37 BB, 66 SO
If you're like me, when Matsuzaka underwent Tommy John surgery last June, you were probably thinking "good riddance." I'd had enough of Matsuzaka, who has never been the pitcher for the Sox that he seems to be in Japan.  But on the bright side, he can't get much worse, and maybe after TJ he'll be better for his presumptive midseason return.

LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 14 starts, 65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 43 BB, 54 SO
2011: 6-3, 12 starts, 65 IP, 5.54 ERA, 41 BB, 50 SO
2012 projection: 3-5, 12 starts, 70 IP, 5.40 ERA, 47 BB, 58 SO
Obviously James isn't expecting Miller to start too much this year - and with those projected numbers, hopefully he won't.


RHP Tim Wakefield:
2011 projection: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 37 BB, 72 SO
2011: 7-8, 23 starts, 154 IP, 5.12 ERA, 47 BB, 93 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 80 IP, 4.16 ERA, 24 BB, 48 SO
Obviously, Wake's not even signed right now, and it would be putting Valentine in a rough position if they invited the 45-year-old knuckleballer to Spring Training. But for some reason, James thinks Wakefield's ERA will fall by nearly a run, but that he'll throw barely half the innings he did last year. We'll see.

After the top three (37- 27 combined), the dropoff is pretty steep. Though I wasn't sad to see the back of John Lackey for Tommy John surgery of his own, his absence really exposes how shallow this rotation is. Hopefully Cherington can pull something out of thin air.  In-house possibilities include Junichi Tazawa, Stolmy Pimentel (though he's just 22 and needs some more seasoning), Felix Doubront, Aceves, and Bard (though the latter two would leave GAPING holes in the bullpen). None of these players were included in James' 2012 Handbook as starters, so their numbers aren't in this post.

Why are we using the CLOSER with an ELEVEN-RUN LEAD?!?

Snappy title, I know, but I'm legitimately lost for words. Can someone please explain to me why the hell Terry Francona decided that he needed to use the CLOSER when the Red Sox were sitting on an ELEVEN-RUN LEAD?  He couldn't have waited to see if Matt Albers could finish the thing, and only made the call to Paps if he started giving it up big? After, I don't know, six runs or so?

I'm really trying to understand the logic here, because I'm always the person trying to tell people that there's a reason Francona is the manager and not Joe "WEEI Whiner Line" - and it's because Tito generally knows what he's doing.

But I'm seriously struggling to understand this.  I know that the save is one of the most useless and overrated statistics in the history of baseball, but this was nowhere near a save situation, or even approaching a "high leverage" situation where you would want your best reliever out there (whether Paps is the Sox's best reliever can be debated, but for the purposes of this post, we'll say he's one of them).

Yes, Albers gave up a run in the eighth, but it was hardly time to push the panic button. WE HAD AN ELEVEN-RUN LEAD. Statistically, you could have thrown a postition player out there on the mound, and you would still have had a damn good chance of winning the game (is Nick Green available? I believe his ERA is still at 0.00...).

What's the harm, you ask? We won the game, you say, so quit your whining. Yes. Yes we won the game. We passed the Yankees, who lost to the Athletics, to take sole position of first place in the AL East.  But what happens if we need Paps tomorrow? Not unlikely, since we'll still be playing the Rangers.  And then what if we need him against Oakland? What if we need him for the next three games? What if we need him for more than three outs?

I know, I know... "You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. Tomorrow it may rain." - Leo Durocher.  But I also adhere to my own radical school of thought about situations like this: don't waste a pitcher today when you have an eleven-run lead, tomorrow Andrew Miller might get shelled. 

Okay, so Durocher's quote is slightly less specific and more poetic than mine, but I literally just do not understand why you would put Paps in the game tonight.  If any of you can shed some light on this for me, do tell (in the comments, via Facebook, etc.), because I'm literally baffled.

Lefty for lefty: Andrew Miller to the Sox

Former Tigers and Marlins LHP Andrew Miller.

As some of you might have heard, the Red Sox recently (Friday) finalized a deal with the Marlins that will send left reliever Dustin Richardson to the Marlins for lefty Andrew Miller. On the surface, the two are pretty similar: both were draft picks out of college in 2006, Richardson is 6'6", 220 lbs, while Miller is 6'7", 210 lbs, and both hail from the south (Kansas and Florida, respectively).

However, this is where the similarities end. Richardson was brought along very cautiously by the Sox, as is their general pattern with pitching; he didn't make his big-league debut until September 28, 2009 against Toronto (1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 SO, 0 BB, 0 ER).

Successful debut? Yessir.

On the other hand, Miller was pitching for the big-league Tigers just twenty-two days after he signed with the club, and sixty-four days after his last game as a collegiate pitcher, debuting for the big club on August 30, 2006. The then 21-year-old pitched a scoreless eighth inning - at Yankee Stadium, no less - and I'm sure several Tigers execs patted themselves on the backs for rushing him to the bigs.

Unfortunately, Miller's success would be rather tempered after that, and he was traded to the Marlins in the winter of 2007, part of the package of players that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit.

Andrew Miller has literally never spent an entire season in the minor leagues - not even a shortened Low-A type season. His career numbers look like this: 15-26, 5.84 ERA, 294.1 IP. Dustin Richardson, on the other hand, spent all of 2006-08 in the minors, and most of 2009, and his numbers look like this: 0-0, 3.31 ERA, 16.1 IP. Miller's WAR stands at -3.8 for his career, and Richardson's is 0.3.

So at first glance, it looks like the Red Sox are getting a raw deal here. However, you all know that I trust Theo Epstein almost unconditionally, and you don't have to look all that deep to see Miller's appeal. Relief pitching is notoriously volatile, and Richardson is a young reliever coming off a generally consistent year, and so Theo is selling high, something he loves to do.

Miller is a former sixth pick overall, and he's also the former teammate of another Sox relief pitcher: fellow-2006-first-rounder Daniel Bard. Bard fell to 28th overall, where the Sox scooped him up, and kept him in the minors for three years before he made his debut in May of 2009. Bard, of course, has never looked back.

Daniel Bard (above) and Miller were light-out teammates at UNC.

Despite all of Miller's well-documented struggles, Bard still thinks he's a great pitcher, and that perhaps the Marlins tried to do just a little too much tinkering with his delivery: “The stuff was too good. The projectability with his body was there. To me, it still is. All the tools are still there. Nothing has changed. I’m sure he had some stumbles along the way he would like to get rid of, but he’s still only 25-years-old and on the cusp of being a really good major league pitcher.”

Of course, the Red Sox have some very good pitching coaches in the organization, even without the now-departed John Farrell, and I'm sure Theo has something in mind to get the still-young lefty back on track. The praise of Daniel Bard should not be taken lightly: by now, he's figured out what it takes to be an affective big-league pitcher, regarding actual skills and mental toughness, and if he thinks Andrew Miller has it, I'm inclined to trust him.




[Quote in this post from WEEI.]