2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI 2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI 2012: 63 games, .260 BA, .303 OBP, .373 SLG, 0 HR, 16 RBI 2013 projection: 86 games, .273 BA, .335 OBP, .370 SLG, 2 HR, 24 RBI Yes, it's official, Ryan Sweeney will be back in Boston for the 2013 season. Though technically signed to a minor league deal, Sweeney has been invited to spring training, and with Ryan Kalish's impending surgery, you have to assume that Sweeney will be on the Opening Day Roster. Sweeney made an early departure last year after he broke his hand punching a door in the in the clubhouse out of frustration. The only possible positive outcome of such a childish action is that it easily got buried in the overwhelming amount of terrible news surrounding last season's Red Sox. Sweeney apologized at the time for his display of temper and its repercussions, and is even making jokes about it on his Twitter:
He seems happy for the opportunity, and is, in his own words "exited to be back with Boston," which is especially impressive given how the season ended here in 2012. I'm still super bummed about Kalish's seemingly continuous health problems, but Sweeney has some comparable numbers (although we admittedly lose some power potential).
After Daniel Nava's spectacular entrance into the bigs in 2010 (where he hit a grand slam on the first pitch he saw), he settled into being the kind of player we all anticipated: a serviceable and affable fourth or fifth outfielder.
Nava is currently second on the Red Sox depth chart in left field, just under Jonny Gomes, and he's played both left and right field in his time in Boston. He's about average with the bat and on defense, but certainly passable for a backup - and I've never heard a negative word about him, attitude-wise.
I have a somewhat personal attachment to Nava, as I was at his very first major league game. It was an interleague contest against the Phillies, and I had cheap bleacher seats. It was raining hard enough that my friend and I discussed moving to better seats that had been abandoned by fans looking to stay dry, when Nava came to bat with the bases loaded, and promptly deposited the very first pitch just about a dozen rows below us.
We had previously been surrounded by Phillies fans who were, to put it lightly, intoxicated and boisterous, and the grand slam from Nava shut them right up. My friend and I were soaked to the skin, and had a long drive back to New Hampshire ahead of us, so we bought some dry (and overpriced) clothing from the Red Sox Team Store, as a permanent souvenir of a great game.
I'm always happy to see Nava on the roster (even when it means that a better player couldn't be had). He came up for the first time when the Red Sox were still considered an elite team, and I'm hoping that they get back to that place while he's still hanging around.
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves 2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save 2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves 2012: 5-6, 59.1 IP, 43 BB, 38 SO, 6.22 ERA, 0 saves 2013 projection: 3-4, 67 IP, 28 BB, 67 SO, 3.63 ERA, 1 save We saw it before, when the Yankees screwed up the development of Joba Chamberlain, switching him from starter to reliever and back again, instituting the "Joba Rules" of innings limits and generally making certain to squander the potential of their best reliever outside of the legendary Mariano Rivera. There were fans who were concerned that the same thing would happen to Daniel Bard when the idea of switching him to a starter was first floated last offseason. I have to admit that I did not share those concerns despite the fact that Bard's biggest stride in the minor leagues was made when he was switched from the rotation to the bullpen; I should have seen this coming. The Daniel Bard as a starter experiment was a failure of epic proportions, in a season marked by failures on every level. After a somewhat promising Spring Training, it became very clear once the season started that Bard wasn't working in the rotation. He made ten starts, but ended the season as disappointed as the rest of us. Hopefully a return to the bullpen will improve Bard's numbers as much as Bill James and his team seems to think - an ERA drop of almost three full runs is nothing to sneeze at. The rotation is (for the moment) full, and there's no need for Bard to deal the the added pressures of closing, since the Red Sox currently have two experienced closers. In addition, the presence of John Farrell can only help things for formerly struggling Red Sox pitchers. I think (I hope!) Bard will return to his former dominance in an eighth inning role in 2013.
Ryan Kalish has been almost ready for the bigs for what seems like half my life. He came up for fifty-three games back in 2010, then injuries kept him off the field for most of 2011. He had 103 plate appearances last season, and didn't quite live up to the predictions for his potential.
On the Red Sox official depth chart, Kalish is second to Shane Victorino in right field, and third to Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava in left. Jacoby Ellsbury is all alone on the chart in center, but Kalish has played that position in the past, and is perfectly capable of giving him a day off, or taking over if (heaven forbid) Ells goes down with a injury.
I have a soft spot for every prospect that comes up through the system, and we've been waiting for Kalish for years now. He certainly has the potential and the tools to not only meet Bill James' projections, but to exceed them: we just have to wait and see what kind of playing time he'll get.
Jonny Gomes was one of the first signings the Red Sox made this offseason, as he became an official member of the team on November 21, just three weeks after the World Series ended. Gomes has been remarkably consistant throughout his career, and while his numbers aren't exactly eye-popping for a corner outfielder, predictability is something the Red Sox could most definitely use.
Gomes isn't a terribly impressive defensive left fielder, but he should be able to patrol the small area in front of the Green Monster with less worry. Though he spent a lot of time last season as a designated hitter in Oakland, Gomes has also played all three outfield positions in his career.
It remains to be seen whether Gomes will take on the bulk of playing time in left field, or if there will be a platoon including him, Daniel Nava, and/or Ryan Kalish. Whatever the case, hopefully left field is less plagued by injuries in 2013 than it has been in recent years.
2012: 11-10, 161 IP, 71 BB, 167 SO, 4.86 ERA 2013 projection: 12-11, 202 IP, 74 BB, 189 SO, 3.70 ERA
Felix Doubront is one of those players that has to do the rookie hazing dress-up routine multiple times, because he keeps getting called up and then sent back down. Last season, he had by far his longest stay with the big club (29 starts), and he'll be the presumptive fifth man in the rotation to begin 2013.
Last year had to be a tough one to be new to the major league routine, what with a new manager who seemed determined to make waves, teammates who were more than happy to jump ship to LA, and a long downward spiral to a last place finish in the division.
But Doubront did about as well as any of his teammates: he won more games than he lost, and pitched more innings for the Red Sox than all of his other stints combined. James projects that Doubront will pitch over 200 innings in 2013, and lover his ERA by more than a run. If Doubront can become a solid, mid-level starter, for right around the major league minimum, then I for one will be happy.
I've said this before, but watching kids come up through the minor league system and then perform at the major league level is one of the single greatest things about being a baseball fan. Doubront is well on his way to becoming a solid contributing piece of the Boston Red Sox, in 2013 and beyond - and I can't wait to see how he develops.
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves 2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves 2012: 2-10, 84 IP, 31 BB, 75 SO, 5.36 ERA, 25 saves 2013 projection: 5-5, 88 IP, 33 BB, 67 SO, 3.68 ERA, 0 saves Alfredo Aceves was never supposed to be the closer last season. But Andrew Bailey went and got seriously injured in spring training, and Aceves was the best option at the time, though he made it clear (repeatedly, and in no uncertain terms) that he greatly disliked the bullpen, and wanted to be a starter. He's certainly in little danger of being asked to be the permanent closer, as the Red Sox have signed Joel Hanrahan and retained the now-healthy Bailey. Unfortunately for Aceves, the starting rotation is looking rather full as well, with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront. So Aceves and his attitude are likely to get pushed into the bullpen, where his role will have even less glory and earning potential than it did as a closer, because middle-relief, long-relief, eighth-inning guys, and mop-up men are indeed the UNSUNG heroes of a ballclub: you can't survive the season without them, but they don't usually get a lot of credit. It remains to be seen whether Aceves will be able to take such a demotion, or if he'll demand a starting role or a trade. Alfredo is a very talented pitcher with some great stuff, but there's a reason that the Yankees weren't clamoring for him back (and it's not because they always look for pricier alternatives).
2011: 70 games, 40 saves, 68.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 16 BB, 61 SO 2012 projection: 69 games, 37 saves, 67 IP, 3.36 ERA, 23 BB, 67 SO 2012: 63 games, 36 saves, 59.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 36 BB, 67 SO 2013 projection: 59 games, 40 saves, 57 IP, 3.63 ERA, 26 BB, 58 SO Despite spending his entire career with the mostly less than respectable (pre-2012) Nationals and Pirates, Joel Hanrahan has pretty respectable numbers. It's unclear how the Red Sox will be handling the Andrew Bailey/Joel Hanrahan closer balancing act, though the online depth chart does designate Hanrahan as the ninth inning guy. Hanrahan spent some time at Fenway Park this week, and seemed willing and ready to share time with Bailey: "...we'll get along great. All you can do is root for each other to have success and pull for the team. That's what we're going to do, I believe. He was in a tough spot. Any time you injure your hand in spring training, that's not fun. Especially coming over to a new team. I'm sure he's got to prove this year." (quote via Boston.com's Extra Bases blog). Hanrahan also commented on the increased media presence at Fenway as opposed to his old home with the Pittsburgh Pirates, conceded that he was bound to say some stupid things, and reassured everyone that he would just roll with the punches. Overall, Hanrahan seems like a good fit for the Red Sox. The projections that James and his team did were calculated under the assumption that Hanrahan would be the closer for the Pirates, so it's possible that he'll see more save opportunities - though it's nice to know that (barring a trade), the Red Sox will have two established closers waiting in the bullpen.
2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA, 72 BB, 156 SO 2011 projection: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA 2011: 12-12, 28 starts, 160 IP, 6.41 ERA, 56 BB, 108 SO 2012: [No stats; missed entire year recovering from Tommy John surgery] 2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 209 IP, 4.04 ERA, 59 BB, 163 SO There's no use pretending that John Lackey is a popular figure around here, because the inaccuracy of that notion would be staggering. Lackey is disliked for his role in the Beer and Chicken fiasco of 2011, for his surly refusal to own up the the shenanigans, and for the impression that he might have known he was eventually headed for the surgery table before he signed the 5 year, $82.5 million dollar contract with the Red Sox in the 2009-2010 offseason. But there are some redeeming qualities about John Lackey, and I would like to point them out to you this morning, because I really think that Lackey will be an important and valuable piece in the 2013 Red Sox rotation. For starters, Lackey is a legitimate innings-eater: the fewest innings he's pitched in a season since coming up to the majors for good is 160 - and that was 2011, when he would end the year with elbow surgery. I have no trouble believing that Lackey can pitch over 200 innings this year, after being surgically repaired and having the 2012 season to get healthy. Not coincidentally, 2011 was also the only year in his decade-long career that Lackey's SO/BB ratio was below 2 (1.93). For reference, Curt Schilling had three such years in his own career, Randy Johnson had six, and even Hall of Famer Bob Gibson had five. So what's the point? Just that Lackey strikes out a LOT more batters than he walks - and that is definitely a good thing. In my opinion, John Lackey's single biggest flaw is that he wears his emotions on his sleeve. This tendency is fine, and even somewhat endearing, when that emotion is something like triumph, or pride, or excitement, but the feeling we usually see Lackey expressing on the mound is disgust. He gets disgusted when his teammates botch a defensive play behind him, and disgusted when the call doesn't go his way: both rational and understandable feelings, but when the fans in the nosebleed seat can see your anger, it's time to tone it down. I really think that Lackey can (and will) redeem himself to Red Sox fans this season. For one thing, he'll be the only big, surly, Texan starter in the clubhouse since Josh Beckett was shipped off to LA. But the most important thing is that he should finally be 100% healthy (which is a real achievement for the Red Sox in recent years), and he should be able to perform up to his considerable potential.
In the total disappointment of last season, watching Will Middlebrooks rake was one of the bright spots. Of course, in keeping with the rest of the season, he eventually succumbed to an injury in the form of a broken right wrist.
Middlebrooks' success was the reason we initially said goodbye to Kevin Youkilis, but at this point I'm okay with it. We already watched Youkilis transform from a chubby kid with a weird batting stance into a bona fide slugger, a cleanup batter for a contender (still with a weird batting stance). Now I want to watch Middlebrooks grow into the MVP type player I know he can be.
Watching young players grow into their potential is one of the single greatest things about being a baseball fan, and we (and he!) got somewhat cheated of that when Middlebrooks broke his wrist last season. One of the things I'm looking forward to most in 2013 is watching a healthy Will Middlebrooks - it should be a lot of fun.
Did you ever think the Red Sox would sign a pitcher coming up on his tenth anniversary of Tommy John surgery? That's exactly who they have in 35-year-old Ryan Dempster, who went under the knife in August of 2003 while playing for the Cincinnati Reds.
Dempster has a career winning percentage of .500, a balanced 124-124 record, and a career ERA of 4.33. His most similar pitcher through age 35 according to baseball-reference is A.J. Burnett. This could admittedly freak you out, but not if you remember that A) Burnett had great stuff but he psyched himself out a lot, and B) the Red Sox are paying Dempster $26.5 million over two years, and the Yankees paid Burnett $82.5 million dollars over five years - literally paying him to play for Pittsburgh in the final season of that contract.
Ryan Dempster has been bopping around the majors since his career debut with the Marlins in 1998; the Red Sox will be his fifth team. But he brings something important to Boston: consistency. Dempster predictably turns in about 30 starts per season, comes in just under 200 innings pitched, and has an ERA around 4. That's certainly not spectacular, but there is something to be said for routine.
If Dempster can perform up the the standards Bill James has projected for him (though these numbers were calculated under the assumption that he would mostly be pitching in Texas), he will be well worth the money the front office has invested in him.
There's no sugarcoating the facts anymore: Jose Iglesias' offensive numbers are just as brutal as his defensive highlight reel is breathtaking. It's never been a secret that Iglesias was coveted for his skills with the leather rather than the lumber, but instead of improvement, last year we saw increased struggle.
With the signing of Stephen Drew, it's safe to assume that Iglesias will not be seeing 139 games at shortstop in the majors. Indeed, perhaps the Drew signing is admission from the front office that Iglesias will be spending some more time robbing base hits in the minors in an effort to bring himself above the Mendoza line, below which he can never be the starting shortstop for the Boston Red Sox.
Only an animated GIF can really do Iglesias' defense justice.
If Iglesias can find his stroke to the tune of .240 as James suggests (somewhat optimistically, in my opinion), his defense is sparkling enough that he can finally fulfill his destiny as the "Shortstop of the Future" that we seem to have been hearing about approximately forever.
On a more personal note, the arrival of Iglesias (and other players his age) in the majors is a sort of shock to me. I've been watching baseball for a large portion of my life, and the players have always been older than me. Jose Iglesias is older than me, but only by about two weeks, and it somehow feels very strange to have people in my peergroup taking the field every day - especially since my life is in a constant state of flux.
I love watching Iglesias play defense (even if it makes me feel personally unaccomplished), and I would welcome the chance to watch that every day - if only seeing him stride to the plate didn't make me wince. Hopefully 2013 is his year.
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI 2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI 2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI 2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI 2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI It's no secret around here that Dustin Pedroia is my favorite player. Not just my favorite player on the current manifestation of the Boston Red Sox, but my favorite player on any team, at any time. Sure, there are arguments to be made in favor of others, but Pedey will always be above the rest for me. The man with all the nicknames (Laser Show? Muddy Chicken? What will we get this year?) saw his playing time and his numbers fall off a bit last season, and all of a sudden there are people asking if this was the beginning of the end: did Pedroia sacrifice his health permanently and thus his production potential by throwing his body around with such reckless abandon all these years? At least Bill James and his crew don't seem to think so, and neither do I. Pedroia will come out of the gates swinging for the fences and cursing like a sailor, out to prove that the last eighteen months were the outliers for the Red Sox, and ready to lead the team back to its place of glory. I can't wait to watch.
I'm sure you all remember Stephen Drew's brother JD, or, as I liked to refer to him, No-Feelings Drew. As you can see by the unabashed exuberance displayed in the photo above, Stephen Drew is very different from his brother - at least in temperament.
Drew has struggled with injuries the last two years, but when he's on the field he's a relatively consistant shortstop - better at the plate than Jose Iglesias, even if his glovework lacks the flash and brilliance of the "Red Sox shortstop of the future."
Make no mistake, this is a one-and-done deal, as Stephen Drew is represented by Scott Boras, and is due to become a free agent in 2014. Boras is either uniquely talented or incredibly lucky in getting great performances out of his clients in contract years - and I for one hope Stephen Drew's 2013 is no exception.
As I'm sure you are all aware, yesterday the Red Sox inked Mike Napoli to a three year, $39 million contract. He'll mostly be playing first base, but he can certainly take his turn behind the plate, as well.
I really like this contract. Napoli has a good bat, and while he's entering his age-31 season, spending more time at first base than catcher should only help his numbers (he played more than half of his games at catcher the last two years).
This also gives the Red Sox even more depth at catcher, allowing them to use one of their many backstops (remember when we couldn't get ONE backup catcher?) for one of their various other needs - pitcher, outfield, whatever.
By all accounts, Mike Napoli is also a great clubhouse presence, and while that certainly wouldn't fill the void of an unproductive player, when added to a package like Napoli it's a nice bonus.
Possibly the most striking thing about Clay Buchholz's 2012 performance is that he managed to hold on to a positive winning percentage and win eleven games while his ERA leaped up more than a full run from 2011. Buchholz made a huge jump in innings between the injury-riddled 2011 campaign and last season, tossing a career high 189.1 innings in 2012. Bill James projects that Buch will continue to make strides in the 2013 season, with a new career high in innings (205), and a bounceback in his ERA to a much more acceptable 3.56. It's easy to think of Buchholz as the skinny kid that came up for a cup of coffee in 2007 and won three games in three starts that fall - partly because he still looks just the same. But 2007 was five years ago, and Clay Buchholz will be 28 next season (29 in August), a player entering his baseball prime. He's not a kid anymore, and if we're ever going to look to him to step up and be a leader on the staff, this has to be the time. I think John Farrell's presence will be good for the pitching staff: though he's the manager and not the pitching coach, he has a lot of respect from the Red Sox staff. I don't think there will be too many pitchers skipping out on their workouts or sneaking from the dugout during games to drink beer on Farrell's watch. Hopefully Clay can eek out a few more wins than James has him projected for, but even if he can't, a pitcher with 205 innings is certainly nothing to sneeze at.
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI 2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI 2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI 2012: 74 games, .271 BA, .313 OBP, .370 SLG, 4 HR, 26 RBI 2013 projection: 152 games, .294 BA, .346 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 67 RBI Looking at Jacoby Ellsbury's "games played" column on baseball-reference.com is like riding a roller coaster. For the first few full years of his major league career, he played most of the season - and then came the 2010 Parade of Carnage, when broken ribs limited Ellsbury to just 18 games. This was followed by a career season in 2011: Goldenboy played 158 games, was selected to the All Star Game, came in second in MVP voting, and claimed a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. But then 2012 rolled around, with a meager 74 games played. This past season was, yet again, marred by injury. Especially when compared to 2011, 2012 was a HUGE disappointment for Ellsbury. I sometimes fall into the trap of still thinking about Jacoby Ellsbury as the fresh-faced rookie that stole a base and won America a free taco in the 2007 World Series. But Goldenboy will be thirty years old next season, his seventh in the majors, and we still don't know what to expect from him in any given year. Jacoby Ellsbury will be a free agent next offseason, and his agent is the infamous Scott Boras. I think we will probably see a banner year from Ells, since everyone involved knows that the Red Sox will not be interested in paying the Scott Boras Premium when the time comes, and they'll want to showcase his talents to the entire league. That being said, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 2011 was a one-time thing. I don't think Ellsbury is a "face of the team, build a franchise around him" type player - partly because of the constant threat of injury. I think Bill James and his crew are right on: we'll see a resurgence from Ells, but not quite a return to the godliness of 2011.
In honor of Big Papi's 37th birthday, I thought I would start off the 2013 Bill James projections series with Red Sox Nation's favorite designated hitter.
Obviously David Ortiz's season was marred by his achilles injury, and he was only able to take the field for ninety games - sixty fewer times than James projected. One of the things that James and his team are careful to note is that they cannot predict injuries, and I think it's safe to assume that if Ortiz had played out the string, fatigue might have brought his spectacular average, OBP, and SLG numbers down closer to their projection. As you all know, Big Papi recently signed a two-year, $26 million contract to keep him in Boston through 2014. If he can live up to the power numbers projected in the 2013 Bill James Handbook, the Red Sox will have gotten their money's worth. Fans, of course, will just be happy to see the ever-jovial lefty back in a Red Sox uniform, hopefully healthy, for the 2013 campaign.
This is typically the time of year that I do a series of posts on Bill James' projections for the following season's Red Sox players. Normally I would do one post each for infielders, outfielders, starters, and relievers, but this year I'm going to go about things a little differently.
As you can see, I received my copy of the Bill James Handbook [2013] in the mail about a week and a half ago, but I've been putting off writing about the contents. Why? A little because I've been a bad, lazy blogger since the World Series wrapped up, but mostly because so much of the 2013 Red Sox roster is still a mystery.
On that note, I've decided to do the projections post player by player, so that I can start them sooner rather than later. There will also be more opportunity for commentary and discussion if each post focuses on a single player. That said, look for (hopefully) daily posts starting this weekend, and thanks for reading!
Last year’s Major League Baseball season ended (in November, no less) with the New York Yankees jumping all over the field and spraying champagne into each others’ eyes.For some, it was the celebrated end of a drought, and for others, it was proof that everything, even baseball’s highest achievement, is for sale.However, regardless of how you feel about the Yankees, it’s time to finally put 2009 behind you, because Opening Day is here at last.
Opening Day is like New Year’s Day, the first day of spring, and release from a federal prison, all rolled into one glorious package: it’s a ritual of renewed hope.On Opening Day, the Kansas City Royals have the same record as the National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies. Fans of the hapless Nationals (yes, they have fans) can brag about the artificially inflated batting average of Adam Dunn, and Seattle fans can swear that “King” Felix Hernandez’s ERA will stay below 1.00 all season long.
However, though hope springs eternal, it will eventually be time to face the facts: baseball by its very nature wears down players, it is, as they say, a marathon, not a sprint.These men play 162 games in just over six months, and fatigue and injuries are all but inevitable (just ask the New York Mets).National and local publications have been putting out baseball previews all over the country for the last month, and though most MLB rosters will look vastly different by August, here come the projections for the end of the marathon.
NATIONAL LEAGUE:
Western Division: Both Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA rankings pick the Colorado Rockies to win the division, followed by the Dodgers, the Giants, the Diamondbacks, and then the hapless Padres.The Rockies have a solid rotation in a mediocre division, and their lineup is solid, anchored by SS Troy Tulowitski.Things to watch: Arizona’s Brandon Webb tries to recover from injury, San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum looks for a new contract, and San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez looks like trade bait. Off the Monster take: Rockies take it.
Central Division: Both ranking systems have St. Louis taking the division, with some dispute over the middle, and Pittsburgh finishing in last (yet again).The Cardinals have one of the best pitching 1-2’s in baseball, with young righties Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright (who were second and third in NL Cy Young contention), and a lineup boasting Albert Pujols.Things to watch: Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder is looking for an extension, the Astros have a new manager in Brad Mills, and the Cubs are at 101 years and counting. Off the Monster take: Cardinals win it.
Eastern Division: In another instance where SI and PECOTA agree completely, the Phillies are predicted to win it, followed by the Braves, the Marlins, the Mets, and the Nationals.Philadelphia has built an American League style lineup, and just added the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay.“Doc” Halladay routinely won 17-20 games in the AL East, with an ERA hovering around 3.25.That’s death for an NL lineup. Off the Monster take: Phillies take the division, Braves take the Wild Card.
American League:
Western Division: SI and PECOTA could not be more different here: the former picks Las Angeles to come out on top, while the latter takes Texas.Though the Angels lost ace John Lackey and infielder Chone Figgens, they still have a formidable lineup and rotation, along with one of the best managers in the game. Off the Monster take: Angels take it, but the Mariners (led by Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez) will present a challenge.
Central Division:All SI and PECOTA can agree upon is that Minnesota will win the Central, and the Royals will finish last in spite of reigning Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke.Minnesota has lost closer Joe Nathan for the season, a tough break for a team celebrating an extension for hometown hero (and AL MVP) Joe Mauer.The White Sox seem to be the overlooked horse in this race, with Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy heading the rotation. Off the Monster take: the Twins win the Central, but it’s close.
Eastern Division: In what is generally accepted to be the toughest division in the game, it’s no wonder that our two authorities disagree: SI has New York winning it, Tampa Bay second (Wild Card), and Boston in third.PECOTA has the Red Sox taking it, with the Yankees as Wild Card winners, and the Rays in third.They both agree that Baltimore will be fourth, and Toronto will mourn the loss of Roy Halladay with a last-place finish. Off the Monster take: New York takes the division, Boston the Wild Card – but it’s going to come down to the wire with the top three teams.
Tampa Bay has a legitimate MVP contender in Evan Longoria.
Of course, it’s likely that we’ll look back at these predictions and laugh – you can’t predict injuries, break-out rookie seasons, or blockbuster trades.The league’s going to look very different come October. But right now… who cares?Sit down and relax – baseball season is here again.
NOTE: THIS ARTICLE ALSO APPEARED IN THE TRINITY TRIPOD.
