2015 Bill James Projections: Will Middlebrooks

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2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

2013: 94 games, .227 BA, .271 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 49 RBI

2014 projection: 145 games, .266 BA, .310 OBP, .490 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

2014: 63 games, .191 BA, .256 OBP, .265 SLG, 2 HR, 19 RBI

2015 projection: 127 games, .244 BA, .292 OBP, .418 SLG, 19 HR, 70 RBI

Will Middlebrooks has had his fair share of setbacks in his first few years. He's been shuttled back and forth to Pawtucket for seasoning and rehab, and this year he played his fewest games in Boston since his debut in 2012.

Middlebrook's calf strain in April, followed shortly by a broken finger, were probably among the first signs that 2014 would be a disappointing year. In the games he actually managed to stay on the field, his numbers were underwhelming.

Bill James' projections for Middlebrooks represent a huge jump in productivity over his injury-shortened 2014, but if we're being honest with ourselves they're really not up to snuff for a corner infielder in the American League.

Doubtless the Red Sox front office has been aware of this for quite some time, and I trust Ben Cherington to have some ideas up his sleeves if Middlebrooks become yet another prospect who can't live up to the hype.

As with most home-grown prospects, Middlebrooks is a fan favorite. But all the fans in the world rooting for him won't force him to make the adjustments necessary to be the lineup-anchoring force the Red Sox need him to be. That's up to him.

North of the border, a roller coaster win for Red Sox

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When Clay Buchholz gave up three runs in the bottom of the first inning yesterday at Rogers Centre, all I could think was, Here we go again.

But Buchholz got himself out of the inning - and through six more without giving up another run. It's a testament to Buchholz that he didn't melt down completely, even though it was clear early on that he didn't have his best stuff.

It certainly helped that Buchholz's teammates regained the lead for him in the top of the third, led by a grad slam by the often-frustrating A.J. Pierzynski, and a solo home run by prodigal son Will Middlebrooks.

Interestingly enough, it was only after Buchholz left the game that things got tense. The bullpen has so far been the most reliable part of the Red Sox season, but yesterday was an exception. Junichi Tazawa came in for the eighth inning, and promptly gave up a home run.

Traditionally, Tazawa has not pitched well at Rogers Centre (his ERA in Canada is 9.00 - the second worst of anywhere he's pitched after the 27.00 ERA he put up in the third of an inning he pitched at Dodger Stadium).

After Tazawa gave up his second run, John Farrell called out to the bullpen for Chris Capuano, who managed a strikeout and a walk before being replaced by Koji Uehara. The ever-reliable Uehara got the final out in the eighth, and then closed out the ninth - albeit with the slight hiccup of giving a home run to Jose Bautista.

It was a wild ride from start to finish - but even the ugly wins count. Jon Lester takes the mound tonight against knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, giving the Red Sox a chance to sweep the series and get back to .500 on the season.

Red Sox crush Blue Jays

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Last night's Red Sox looked like an entirely different team than the one that got demolished by the Yankees on Thursday. Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino are back in action, and their presence helped the offense score eight runs on the hapless Blue Jays.

Jake Peavy pitched seven innings and gave up just a single run, then Chris Capuano and Andrew Miller each pitched a scoreless frame to finish out the contest.

Every Red Sox batter had at least one hit - and the seemingly hopeless A.J. Pierzynski had three. It was a game that triggered pleasant memories of last season, a fantastic romp through Rogers Centre that was almost enough to wipe away the rotten taste from the loss to the Yankees the night before.

Was yesterday's game the harbinger of things to come? Have the Red Sox turned the corner on their horrible start? The return of Middlebrooks and Victorino certainly won't hurt - and now that we know about secret knuckleballer Mike Carp, things are looking up.

2014 Bill James Projections - Will Middlebrooks

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

2013: 94 games, .227 BA, .271 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 49 RBI

2014 projection: 145 games, .266 BA, .310 OBP, .490 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

After a promising 2012, Will Middlebrooks endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2013. It started with a demotion to Triple-A in April, and even after his return to the big club for the playoffs, he had lost his spot to Xander Bogaerts by the end of the run.

Clearly Bill James and co. don't expect that trend to continue in 2014, as they have him down to join the 30HR/100RBI club next season. Of course, Middlebrooks' position is currently in flux, as the Red Sox still have interest in Stephen Drew, and a roster with Drew, Bogaerts, and Middlebrooks would likely make Middlebrooks the odd man out - at least for a while.

Still, Middlebrooks' upside is much too high for the Red Sox to squander his talent by making him ride the bench too often - indeed, his potential is one of the greatest points of leverage the Red Sox have in their pursuit of a team-friendly contract with Drew.

2014 Bill James Projections - Xander Bogaerts

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI

Clearly when James and his team calculated these projections, they worked under the assumption that Bogaerts would be the everyday shortstop. Even if Stephen Drew comes back for 2014, I expect Bogaerts to play most days - whether he spends the majority of time at shortstop or third base depends on Drew's status and the early-season performance of Will Middlebrooks.

We only got a glimpse of Bogaerts last season. A late season call-up, Bogaerts slid effortlessly into the third base position during the postseason when Middlebrooks wasn't getting it done (Drew couldn't hit to save his life, either, but he was spared the bench because of his excellent defense).

This flexibility bodes well, as Bogaerts is just twenty years old, and already big for a shortstop - if he fills out more in the coming years, it's good to know he can flash the leather at the hot corner, too.

We've been hearing about Bogaerts' prowess with the glove for years - but he's also slated to become a bona fide power threat at the plate. As clichéd as it sounds, the sky is the limit for Xander Bogaerts going forward.

Red Sox end West Coast losing streak

Image source: Boston Globe

Before last night, I was beginning to get a little worried that my support was acting as a jinx for Red Sox prospects. I'm probably the least superstitious and most skeptical person I know - except when it comes to baseball. I don't utter the words "no-hitter" when one is happening, I wear the same shirt to the ballpark as long as the Sox win when I do, and I won't leave my seat (at home or at the park) when there's a rally going on.

So when I bought Jackie Bradley Jr. and Will Middlebrooks shirts at the beginning of the season, and they both struggled before being demoted to AAA, I was worried. My concerns were only exacerbated when I decided to hold off on the purchase of a Jose Iglesias shirt, and he went on to have an incredible first half, both defensively and at the plate.

So I'm essentially convinced that I'm a jinx. Or I was, until Jackie Bradley Jr. contributed a home run to the Red Sox win last night. In fact, Bradley's homer was the blow that finally put the Sox on top for good in a game full of offense and somewhat devoid of masterful pitching performances on both sides.

The victory stopped what had become a string of Red Sox losses, albeit at only three games long. Indeed, had the Sox not come back to win last night, it would have been the very first four-game losing streak of the 2013 season. The West Coast has not been friendly to the Red Sox this week, but hopefully last night's game is the beginning of a turnaround: they're 2-3 so far on this road trip, but they have another two games against the Mariners and then three against the A's before the All-Star Break.

As long as I hold off on buying any more player t-shirts, I think they have a good chance of ending the West Coast trip on a positive note.

Lester stumbles in Chicago

For a few wonderful moments in the top of the seventh inning, it looked like the Red Sox bats were going to bail out Jon Lester. With the Red Sox trailing 6-2 to the White Sox, Will Middlebrooks came to the plate with nobody out and two men on base, and doubled to left field scoring David Ortiz and Mike Napoli.

Sadly, four runs were all the Red Sox could muster, and it wasn't enough on a night when Jon Lester didn't have it. It's something of a pattern for Lester against Chicago's AL team, as the lefty is just 4-5 in his career with a 5.43 ERA in ten starts - much below his career stats against all teams, 91-49 with a 3.73 ERA.

It's actually reassuring that Lester has a pattern of mediocrity against the White Sox - I'd much rather have him predictably struggle against this one team than have last night's performance be a harbinger of things to come. A one-time poor start that can be explained is preferable to a mysterious downward spiral any day of the week, and though Lester's chokefest seriously damaged my fantasy stats, I'm confident that he'll make it up to me in his next outing.

Red Sox sweep Twins

After a four-game sweep of the Twins, the Red Sox head to Chicago to face the White Sox. We were going through a bit of a rough patch for a while, but in the last week the Red Sox have won five of six games, boosting their season record to 27-17, just a half game behind the Yankees in the AL East.

Yesterday's game was particularly strange, as it spanned about six hours in order to accomodate a three hour rain delay after the top of the seventh inning. John Lackey got the win, going six innings and allowing just one hit - the run he gave up was unearned.

Three hours after Lackey tossed his final pitch, Andrew Miller took the mound for the seventh inning, before handing the ball off to Koji Uehara for the eighth, and then Junichi Tazawa for the ninth. The three gave up a combined four hits, one walk, and earned six strikeouts in the final three innings.

On the offensive side of things, Dustin Pedroia hit his second home run of the season, and Will Middlebrooks hit his eighth, leading the Sox to a 5-1 win. It's certainly nice to be back on track, and the  White Sox shouldn't provide too much of a stumbling block as the Red Sox try to keep their momentum going.

Middlebrooks comes through

When Will Middlebrooks came to the plate with two outs in the top of the ninth inning, the Red Sox were down by two runs with the bases loaded. Middlebrooks didn't have much to show for his earlier plate appearances, as he was 0-for-2 with a walk up to that point. But none of that mattered, because with two strikes on him, Middlebrooks laid off a high fastball from Rays closer Fernando Rodney, took the next offering (a changeup), and lined it into right field.

Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Daniel Nava scored on Middlebrooks' double, and the Red Sox took a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth. With Andrew Bailey still on the disabled list, Junichi Tazawa came in to try to lock things down, and he successfully got the save, allowing the Red Sox to take the rubber match of the series.

Even Felix Doubront had a pretty solid outing - though he did not get the win, he managed to go five plus innings and give up just two earned runs, even wiggling out of a tough situation when he loaded the bases in the first inning, somehow getting out untagged. The bullpen pulled out a piecemeal effort, as Clayton Mortensen managed just a third of an inning and gave up a run, but Andrew Miller, Craig Breslow, and Tazawa pitched the rest of the game cleanly.

It was certainly a feel-good win, as the homegrown fan-favorite Middlebrooks provided the offense needed, and the Red Sox strung two wins together for the first time since their last series in Baltimore two weeks ago. Tomorrow the Sox head to Minnesota for a three game set, and hopefully they can bring some momentum with them to Target Field, as they only managed to take one game out of three from the Twins last week at Fenway. Clay Buchholz (6-0) will get the start for the Sox, against Vance Worley (1-4).

Sox topple A's

Despite giving up five walks and three earned runs over 6.2 innings, Felix Doubront earned his second win of the season this evening against the Oakland A's. The Athletics rolled into Fenway Park with a season record of 12-7, but it's worth noting that they've already played three games against the Mariners and six against the Astros (seriously, the Astros presence in the AL West is a literal GIFT to the other teams in that division).

It' always nice to start off a series with a win - and the Red Sox have done that in eery series so far in 2013. After yesterday's doubleheader, it was important for Doubront to log significant innings and preserve the bullpen, and though he struggled a little bit to be efficient, he made it into the seventh inning, with a sizable cushion provided by the offense.

Mike Napoli had a grand slam, and Will Middlebrooks made a start at breaking out of his slump with a three run homerun as the two led the offense to a nine-run outburst. The bullpen effort was spearheaded by Junichi Tazawa and Andrew Bailey, in what was truly a team effort. The Red Sox are first in the AL East, two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, and two-and-a-half ahead of the Yankees.

Like night and day

It's hard to believe that the team that mustered just two hits over nine innings in yesterday's loss is the same as the one who just destoyed R.A. Dickey and the Jays today. After yesterday's debacle, the Red Sox needed a game like this afternoon's. Jon Lester pitched seven scoreless innings, and the offense absolutely exploded for thirteen runs, including six homers.

Will Middlebrooks had a spectacular game, with three of the six homeruns, a double, and four RBIs - I'll certainly be buying his jersey when I get the chance.  Jose Iglesias continued to rake, going 2-for-5 with a double, and bringing his four game average to .583. Sure, it's a tiny sample size, but Iglesias is clearly making a statement.

And so the Red Sox will return to Fenway for the Home Opener tomorrow, atop the American League East with a 4-2 record having won both of the first two series. I snagged a bleacher seat to tomorrow's game, and I can't wait - will I see any of you there?

Heading north

Perhaps I jinxed things yesterday with my unbridled optimism - I would be the first to admit that optimism isn't a natural state for me, as I'm much more comfortable with the cynic's role. In any case, the Red Sox suffered their first loss last evening, at the hands of the Yankees.

There were some good notes regardless of the loss: David Ross threw out two baserunners last night, and the kids continued to impress. Jackie Bradley Jr. had a double and an RBI, while Will Middlebrooks had two hits and an RBI of his own. Jose Iglesias, clearly gunning to stay with the big club even upon the imminent return of Stephen Drew, went 2-for-3 and bunted for a base hit.

Tonight they'll head north to Toronto, to a welcome that might be rather more hostile than one would normally expect from famously welcoming Canadians. The Blue Jays and their fans weren't exactly pleased when John Farrell deserted them after just two seasons to return to Boston - and you can't really blame them for feeling somewhat betrayed.

I can't imagine the hostility could last too long. Toronto is more of a hockey town than a baseball one, and we all know that Canadians are pretty much incapable of holding onto non-puck related anger for too much time. Either way, I'm sure Farrell won't let a few boos get to him.

Middlebrooks cleared

After yesterday's scare with Will Middlebrooks' wrist, it was good to hear that there was no structural damage. With broken bones, there can sometimes be pain long after everything's totally healed - but it's obviously even more worrisome when the bone belongs to a budding young star.

There's no question that the Sox medical team will be keeping a close eye on Middlebrooks and his wrist, since losing him (again) would be a HUGE blow to the team, at a time where the fanbase isn't prepared to accept many more setbacks. Unquestionably, Middlebrooks is extremely talented and fun to watch, so from a simple baseball standpoint they need to do everything possible to keep him on the field.

Middlebrooks described the swing that triggered the moment of pain as an unusual checked swing, implying that he committed more than usual before trying to suspend his momentum, and it's possible that even without a recently repaired wrist, the motion might have caused pain.  The important thing is that Middlebrooks has been cleared for all baseball activities by a hand specialist, and was able to take batting practice this morning.

2013 Bill James Projections - Will Middlebrooks

2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI
2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

In the total disappointment of last season, watching Will Middlebrooks rake was one of the bright spots. Of course, in keeping with the rest of the season, he eventually succumbed to an injury in the form of a broken right wrist.

Middlebrooks' success was the reason we initially said goodbye to Kevin Youkilis, but at this point I'm okay with it. We already watched Youkilis transform from a chubby kid with a weird batting stance into a bona fide slugger, a cleanup batter for a contender (still with a weird batting stance). Now I want to watch Middlebrooks grow into the MVP type player I know he can be.

Watching young players grow into their potential is one of the single greatest things about being a baseball fan, and we  (and he!) got somewhat cheated of that when Middlebrooks broke his wrist last season. One of the things I'm looking forward to most in 2013 is watching a healthy Will Middlebrooks - it should be a lot of fun.

Time to turn things around... or else.

Even with a big performance from Clay Buchholz last night to snap the losing streak, the Red Sox can't seem to keep their collective heads above water. Yes, there have been injuries to several key players, but it's mid-June now, and rumors are starting to fly about the fast-approaching trading deadline.

I can't remember the last time the Sox sent off a big piece without getting a major league ready contributor in return - but if the rumors are true, that's exactly what's likely to happen.

Doubtless you've been watching the log jam since Kevin Youkilis returned from the disabled list, forcing Bobby V. to shuffle the lineup to make sure Youk, Adrian Gonzalez, and upstart rookie Will Middlebrooks all see some playing time.  The result has been Gonzo taking a lot of turns in the outfield - and it's not as if he's terrible (he's certainly much better - and more comfortable - than Youk ever was out there), but it's kind of ridiculous to be playing your Gold Glove first baseman in the outfield on a regular basis.

Of course, Youkilis is a Gold Glove first baseman, too, but his natural position (like Middlebrooks') is third base.  And now, with interleague play, David Ortiz is in the mix as well. No one is getting the playing time they should be, and it's looking more and more like Kevin Youkilis' days with the Sox are numbered.

The biggest question now is where he'll land, and what the Red Sox will get in return.  My money is on some prospects (though some QUALITY prospects), especially if we don't turn things around in a big way, and soon.