2014 Bill James Projections - Daniel Nava

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2012: 88 games, .243 BA, .352 OBP, .390 SLG, 6 HR, 33 RBI

2013 projection: 87 games, .266 BA, .367 OBP, .414 SLG, 6 HR, 35 RBI

2013: 134 games, .303 BA, .385 OBP, .445 SLG, 12 HR, 66 RBI

2014 projection: 121 games, .285 BA, .377 OBP, .435 SLG, 11 HR, 59 RBI

Daniel Nava has been fighting for his baseball life throughout his career. He was undrafted out of college, and then when the Red Sox signed him out of the independent leagues, they paid just $1 for the right.

After languishing in the minors for three full years, he made his major league debut on June 12, 2010 against the Phillies - and deposited the first pitch he saw into bleachers for a grand slam. I was at that game, so Nava will always have a special place in my heart.

Daniel Nava was never supposed to make it. He wasn't supposed to be able to succeed at any level, but he's made a career out of succeeding at every level. Nava is currently first on the Red Sox depth chart in left field, so barring any major adjustments he should finally get the chance to be an every day player.

At this point, it would be a fool's errand to underestimate Nava - and I think that's exactly what Bill James and co. have done this year. I don't see Nava's batting average taking a nearly twenty point plunge just when he'll get the chance to be an everyday starter.

2014 Bill James Projections - Mike Carp

Source

2011: 79 games, .276 BA, .326 OBO, .466 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2012 projection: 79 games, .258 BA, .327 OBP, .442 SLG, 11 HR, 40 RBI
2012: 59 games, .213 BA, .312 OBP, .341 SLG, 5 HR, 20 RBI
2013 projection: 61 games, .252 BA, .329 OBP, .410 SLG, 5 HR, 19 RBI
2013: 86 games, .296 BA, .362 OBP, .523 SLG, 9 HR, 43 RBI
2014 projection: 126 games, .257 BA, .330 OBP, .436 SLG, 13 HR, 49 RBI

Oh, the life of a fourth outfielder/backup first baseman. Mike Carp played the most games in his career last season, and Bill James and his crew are projecting him to blow out that personal best in 2014.

Carp was an important role player last season - he played in just over half the regular season games, and had just eight plate appearances in the postseason (where he had exactly zero hits, but it was a light hitting postseason for everyone not named Ortiz).

Bill James' projection for playing time could be curtailed if the Grady Sizemore experiment pans out, but Carp's outfield versatility should keep him around.

I often catch myself thinking of Mike Carp as much older than he is: he won't be 28 until almost July, and because of his age and limited playing time, he's under team control for a few more years.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jake Peavy

Source

2011: 7-7, 18 starts, 111.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 24 BB, 95 SO
2012 projection: 8-5, 19 starts, 123 IP, 3.51 ERA, 29 BB, 121 SO
2012: 11-12, 32 starts, 219 IP, 3.37 ERA, 49 BB, 194 SO
2013 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 211 IP, 3.20 ERA, 47 BB, 200 SO
2013: 12-5, 23 starts, 144.2 IP, 4.17 ERA, 36 BB, 121 SO
2014 projection: 11-7, 25 starts, 163 IP, 3.31 ERA, 39 BB, 150 SO

It's been a long time since Jake Peavy won his Cy Young Award, and he hasn't been able to come close to matching the dominance of that 2007 season since. Nevertheless, he's a solid starter, and despite the howling from some corners of Red Sox Nation when we sent Jose Iglesias to Detroit in the three team deal that brought us Peavy, his short time in Boston has been successful.

There always seem to be murmurs of a trade surrounding Jake Peavy, and this year has been no different. The Red Sox have six legitimate starters on their roster right now, so somebody is likely to be the odd man out, and Peavy could be a free agent as soon as next season. (His contract includes a $15 million player option, but it will only vest if he reaches certain unlikely milestones.)

Assuming Peavy sticks around through 2014, and he lives up to Bill James' projections, he'll be a reliable starter. Whether he's actually worth the $14.5 million he'll be paid is another question entirely, but I'd hazard a guess that the Red Sox ownership is perfectly content to pay him for his contributions for the 2013 World Championship - I know I am.

2014 Bill James Projections - Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster during 2013 Spring Training
 Source

2011: 10-14, 34 starts, 202.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 82 BB, 191 SO

2012 projection: 11-12, 32 starts, 203 IP, 3.95 ERA, 80 BB, 185 SO2012: 12-8, 28 starts, 173 IP, 3.38 ERA, 52 BB, 153 SO2013 projection: 11-10, 31 starts, 190 IP, 3.74 ERA, 66 BB, 172 SO
2013: 8-9, 29 starts, 171.1 IP, 4.57 ERA, 79 BB, 157 SO
2014 projection: 9-10, 29 starts, 168 IP, 4.02 ERA, 68 BB, 152 SO

Even though Ryan Dempster didn't live up to his 2013 projections, he deserves credit for one very important part of the 2013 World Championship run: he was one of the few Red Sox to come in to Spring Training with his facial hair already established.

All joking aside, Dempster was solid for the Red Sox in 2013. Sure, he had his share of early hooks, but he took the ball every five days, and tossed 171 innings, no small feat for a thirty-six-year-old who underwent Tommy John surgery over a decade ago.

Bill James and his team project some modest gains for Dempster in 2014, and his BB/SO rate has always been pretty fantastic. As a fourth or fifth starter, Dempster should more than satisfactory.

2014 Bill James Projections - Dustin Pedroia

©Kayla Chadwick 2012

2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI

Dustin Pedroia has been remarkably consistent throughout his career - both from day to day, and season to season. Pedroia has to be practically begged to take a day off, even when injured. Sometimes the bumps and bruises collected by Pedroia are unnecessary: indeed, he tore the ligament in his left thumb on this season's Opening Day, sliding headfirst into first base while the Red Sox had a comfortable lead over the Yankees.

But if he played it safe and sane, he just wouldn't be the Dustin Pedroia Red Sox fans know and love. Though the injury undoubtedly affected his power numbers in 2013, it's obvious that having Pedroia at 90% is far superior to trying to fill his spot with anyone else.

Pedroia has had surgery to repair his thumb, and reportedly should be ready for Opening Day. Barring any sort of injury (something you can never really rule out with Pedroia's style of play), I would hazard a guess that the 2014 projections will be relatively accurate.

2014 Bill James Projections - Koji Uehara

Source

2011: 2-3, 65 games, 0 saves, 65 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9 BB, 85 SO
2012 projection: 5-2, 62 games, 0 saves, 58 IP, 2.64 ERA, 8 BB, 55 SO
2012: 0-0, 37 games, 1 save, 36 IP, 1.75 ERA, 3 BB, 43 SO
2013 projection: 3-1, 43 games, 4 saves, 40 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6 BB, 39 SO
2013: 4-1, 73 games, 21 saves, 74.1 IP, 1.09 ERA, 9 BB, 101 SO
2014 projection: 6-2, 69 games, 23 saves, 75 IP, 1.80 ERA, 9 BB, 82 SO

I think it's fair to forgive the total lack of accuracy from The Bill James Handbook's 2013 projections for Koji Uehara. After all, heading into the season, Uehara wasn't even on the radar as a possible closer, as we had Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey seemingly ready to go.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Red Sox would not have won the World Series without Uehara in the closer spot. Beyond the absolutely lights out season he had numbers-wise, Uehara was one of many spiritual centers of the team, earning the nickname "High Five City" by midsummer.

I know I can't be the only Red Sox fan who was intimidated by Uehara's post-save celebration antics: every time he charged triumphantly off the mound I was sure he was going to fracture his hand with the ferocity of his high fives.

But Uehara remained safe, sound, and absolutely dominant to the very end. His ERA was just over a run, and his BB/SO ratio was unreal (though to be fair, that's been consistent throughout his career).

It's possible that Uehara might have a bit of a backslide in 2014: he tossed a lot of innings last year, and at his age that might wear on him. However, it's obvious that trying to predict the greatness that is Koji Uehara is futile, so I'll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

2014 Bill James Projections - Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO
2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO
2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO
2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

Clay Buchholz's biggest enemy in his career has been his own body. It seems like he's constantly fighting to stay healthy and on the field - and when he does, the results are fantastic.

In the incredible afterglow of the 2013 season, it's easy to let clay Buchholz's first half dominance slip under the radar, but in the early part of the season he was absolutely filthy. Indeed, Buchholz was so good that he was accused of cheating. 

Given the time Buchholz missed, it's difficult to know whether Bill James and his team underestimated him in their projections, but it seems unlikely that he would have lost an additional ten games - with no extra wins - had he stayed healthy.

In that vein, I think Buchholz will outdo James' 2014 projections - assuming he manages to stay on the mound.

2014 Bill James Projections - John Lackey

Source

2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA, 72 BB, 156 SO

2011 projection: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
2011: 12-12, 28 starts, 160 IP, 6.41 ERA, 56 BB, 108 SO
2012: [No stats; missed entire year recovering from Tommy John surgery]
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 209 IP, 4.04 ERA, 59 BB, 163 SO
2014: 10-13, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 40 BB, 161 SO

2014 projections: 11-11, 29 starts, 199 IP, 3.93 ERA, 46 BB, 155 SO

This past season was exceptionally redemptive for John Lackey. He started 2013 as one of Boston's most hated athletes and transformed himself into a pitcher Red Sox fans trusted in the biggest situations. 

John Lackey handily outpitched FOX Sports' darling Justin Verlander in the ALCS, then won the clinching game of the World Series, and he did it with very little fanfare.

When Lackey came off the mound in Toronto last April clutching his arm, no one could have predicted how his season would end: making history by becoming the first starting pitcher in major league history to win the clinching game of the World Series with two separate teams.

Even with the egregious lack of run support this season, Lackey's numbers were impressive, and James and his team predict another productive season from the once-reviled right hander.

2014 Bill James Projections - Will Middlebrooks

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

2013: 94 games, .227 BA, .271 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 49 RBI

2014 projection: 145 games, .266 BA, .310 OBP, .490 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

After a promising 2012, Will Middlebrooks endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2013. It started with a demotion to Triple-A in April, and even after his return to the big club for the playoffs, he had lost his spot to Xander Bogaerts by the end of the run.

Clearly Bill James and co. don't expect that trend to continue in 2014, as they have him down to join the 30HR/100RBI club next season. Of course, Middlebrooks' position is currently in flux, as the Red Sox still have interest in Stephen Drew, and a roster with Drew, Bogaerts, and Middlebrooks would likely make Middlebrooks the odd man out - at least for a while.

Still, Middlebrooks' upside is much too high for the Red Sox to squander his talent by making him ride the bench too often - indeed, his potential is one of the greatest points of leverage the Red Sox have in their pursuit of a team-friendly contract with Drew.

2014 Bill James Projections - David Ross

GIF via Surviving Grady

2012: 62 games, .256 BA, .321 OBP, .449 SLG, 9 HR, 23 RBI
2013 projection: 93 games, .235 BA, .321 OBP, .414 SLG, 12 HR, 42 RBI
2013: 36 games, .216 BA, .298 OBP, .382 SLG, 4 HR, 10 RBI
2014 projection: 76 games, .221 BA, .308 OBP, .383 SLG, 8 HR, 28 RBI

A few weeks back, I wrote a post entitled, "If you don't love David Ross, you're wrong." I stand by that sentiment - hopefully Ross can stay concussion free in 2014.

Bill James' 2014 projection for Ross predicts offensive gains commensurate with increased playing time. Assuming Ross' health (never a totally safe assumption given his all-out style of play), I can believe he'll have some modest improvement numbers wise.

But let's be honest: you don't have David Ross on your roster for what he does at the plate, you keep him around for his contributions behind it and in the clubhouse. He bonds with his teammates, gets the very best out of pitchers, and has a blast doing it.

2014 Bill James Projections - Xander Bogaerts

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI

Clearly when James and his team calculated these projections, they worked under the assumption that Bogaerts would be the everyday shortstop. Even if Stephen Drew comes back for 2014, I expect Bogaerts to play most days - whether he spends the majority of time at shortstop or third base depends on Drew's status and the early-season performance of Will Middlebrooks.

We only got a glimpse of Bogaerts last season. A late season call-up, Bogaerts slid effortlessly into the third base position during the postseason when Middlebrooks wasn't getting it done (Drew couldn't hit to save his life, either, but he was spared the bench because of his excellent defense).

This flexibility bodes well, as Bogaerts is just twenty years old, and already big for a shortstop - if he fills out more in the coming years, it's good to know he can flash the leather at the hot corner, too.

We've been hearing about Bogaerts' prowess with the glove for years - but he's also slated to become a bona fide power threat at the plate. As clichéd as it sounds, the sky is the limit for Xander Bogaerts going forward.

2014 Bill James Projections - Mike Napoli

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011: 113 games, .320 BA, .414 OBP, .631 SLG, 30 HR, 75 RBI
2012 projection: 131 games, .271 BA, .364 OBP, .537 SLG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
2012: 108 games, .227 BA, .343 OBP, .469 SLG, 24 HR, 56 RBI
2013 projection: 127 games, .248 BA, .350 OBP, .498 SLG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
2013: 139 games, .259 BA, .360 OBP, .482 SLG, 23 HR, 92 RBI
2014 projection: 137 games, .246 BA, .348 OBP, .471 SLG, 26 HR, 79 RBI

The projections Bill James and his team made for Mike Napoli through last season assumed he would be playing catcher for a sizable portion of the season - and until last offseason and the discovery of Napoli's avascular necrosis, that was accurate.

With the burden of squatting behind the plate for 60-70 games per season lifted, Napoli successfully exceeded expectations in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, and his power numbers remained pretty steady.

Though it an be a strain to watch Napoli come to the plate during his dry spells, it's 100% worth it when he inevitably heats up. Streaky players are frustrating at times, but Nap made up for it with his better than advertised defense at first base and wholehearted embrace of the Red Sox and Boston more generally.

I was thrilled when I heard that the Red Sox had signed Napoli to a two-year, $32 million dollar deal (I sent several text messages that just read "MIKE NAPOLI," and was able to identify my true friends based on those who didn't need further explanation). I can't wait to see Napoli - and the beard he's reportedly keeping - back next year. 

2014 Bill James Projections - A.J. Pierzynski

Source

2011: 129 games, .287 BA, .323 OBP, .405 SLG, 8 HR, 48 RBI
2012 projection: 116 games, .277 BA, .317 OBP, .394 SLG, 9 HR, 48 RBI
2012: 135 games, .278 BA, .326 OBP, .501 SLG, 27 HR, 77 RBI
2013 projection: 137 games, .269 BA, .310 OBP, .422 SLG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
2013: 134 games, .272 BA, .297 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 70 RBI
2014 projection: 128 games, .266 BA, .303 OBP, .407 SLG, 14 HR, 56 RBI

I'll admit to being a little skeptical about A.J. Pierzynski at first: he's hardly the most popular man in the league, but apparently he's the type of player that everyone loves more in their own clubhouse than as an opponent.

The Red Sox have had their share of those types over the years (I'm looking at you, Kevin Youkilis), and if the front office folks who assembled the 2013 chemistry dream team think Pierzynski will be a good fit, I'm behind them.

Though James projects Pierzynski to play around 130 games, it's possible that he'll be behind the plate for fewer - especially if backup catcher David Ross can stay concussion free in 2014.

Somehow Pierzynski has never hit a home run at Fenway Park, but as a lefthanded batter who tends to pull his homers out of right field, I'd hazard a guess that his drought will end early in 2014.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jonny Gomes

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011: 120 games, .209 BA, .325 OBP, .389 SLG, 14 HR, 43 RBI
2012 projection: 120 games, .240 BA, .333 OBP, .439 SLG, 16 HR, 53 RBI
2012: 99 games, .262 BA, .377 OBP, .491 SLG, 18 HR, 47 RBI
2013 projection: 113 games, .236 BA, .337 OBP, .441 SLG, 16 HR, 49 RBI
2013: 116 games, .247 BA, .344 OBP, .426 SLG, 13 HR, 52 RBI
2014 projection: 122 games, .237 BA, .336 OBP, .433 SLG, 16 HR, 53 RBI

With a 2013 salary of $5 million dollars, Jonny Gomes was a bargain for the Red Sox last season. He produced better than expected (and you better believe the Red Sox take Bill James' projections into account, as he's on their payroll), was an excellent guy to have in the clubhouse, and was always entertaining - if not efficient - in the outfield.

The two-year deal Gomes signed with the Red Sox takes him through 2014 in Boston, and will cost the Red Sox $10 million total. Considering the Sox have gotten exactly what they were looking for in Gomes, including a World Series trophy, it will be worth it even if he spontaneously falls into a coma on Opening Day.

James' projections for Gomes will probably be just about spot-on for 2014, as they were very accurate for 2013 - though it's possible Gomes might see some additional playing time if there's some shuffling while they ease Jack Bradley Jr. into center field.

2014 Bill James Projections - Shane Victorino

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011: 132 games, .279 BA, .355 OBP, .491 SLG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
2012 projection: 149 games, .277 BA, .344 OBP, .441 SLG, 17 HR, 64 RBI
2012: 154 games, .255 BA, .321 OBP, .383 SLG, 11 HR, 55 RBI
2013 projection: 155 games. .269 BA, .338 OBP, .418 SLG, 14 HR, 59 RBI
2013: 122 games, .294 BA, .351 OBP, .451 SLG, 15 HR, 61 RBI
2014 projection: 148 games, .270 BA, .336 OBP, .415 SLG, 14 HR, 58 RBI

Shane Victorino spent 2013 in a constant battle with his own body. It seemed like every week he had some sort of new nagging injury to contend with, but it was clear that he gave it his all every day he made it to the field.

Yesterday Victorino underwent surgery to repair his right thumb, which he injured during a mid-September game against the Orioles; he is expected to be ready for Spring Training. 

It's interesting that James projects fewer home runs and RBIs for Victorino in 2014, considering he's banking on Victorino playing in an additional twenty-six games. I would expect a healthy Shane Victorino to at least match his 2013 performance, and I wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed himself.

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

What the numbers here don't show is the defensive prowess that Victorino brought to Fenway's expansive right field. As someone who has played the majority of his career in center field, Victorino slid into the right field position pretty effortlessly last season - and his flexibility will certainly be a boon as the Red Sox ease Jackie Bradley Jr. into center next spring.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jon Lester

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
2012: 9-14, 33 starts, 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 68 BB, 166 SO
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 211 IP, 3.71 ERA, 75 BB, 192 SO
2013: 15-8, 33 starts, 213.1 IP, 3.75 ERA, 67 BB, 177 SO
2014 projection: 14-9, 32 starts, 3.67 ERA, 71 BB, 193 SO

With the exception of the win-loss record, Bill James was essentially right on the money for Lester in 2013. Sure, Lester had slightly fewer strikeouts than James promised, but overall it was a solid projection of a solid season.

It's hard to believe that this time last year, the Sox brass was rumored to be considering a Lester for Wil Myers trade, and while Myers did well in his 88 games in Tampa Bay, I'm thrilled that we kept Lester.

This year it's Lester looking for a new contract. Rather than showing himself the door, he's looking to stay in Boston long term - but not at the expense of his own earning power:

"Obviously, Boston is my home. This is all I’ve known, all I’ve come accustomed to and all I want to know. My family enjoys it up there I enjoy it up there. There are a lot of factors in it. But at the same time, there’s a business side of it. Kind of like Jacoby [Ellsbury], I have to do what’s best for me and same thing with the Red Sox. Sometimes you have to part ways, hopefully that’s not the case when it comes down to us here in the future."

Lester is a talented left handed pitcher who has proven he can pitch in the AL East in high pressure situations, and as such he might command a longer contract than the Red Sox would be comfortable handing out. 

Hopefully he and the Red Sox can work something out, because the last thing I want is for Lester to perform as Bill James has always projected - for some other team.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jackie Bradley Jr.

©Kayla Chadwick 2013

2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB
2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB
2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB

With Jacoby Ellsbury off to New York, and barring another big trade or free agent signing, Jackie Bradley Jr. could be spending a lot of time patrolling center field at Fenway Park in 2014.

Bill James obviously expected Bradley to have a much larger role last season, but that didn't exactly pan out. After tearing up the Grapefruit League during spring training, Bradley started the season with the Red Sox, but was back in Pawtucket soon after.

In his short time with the big club, Bradley had some trouble with major league pitching, but given time his disciplined approach should pay off.

If we do see Bradley starting in center field in 2014, I suspect he'll be eased into it with lots of days off, especially in the beginning of the season. But if he reaches these projections in his first full year in the majors for less than three percent of what the Yankees will be paying Jacoby Ellsbury, I'll be more than satisfied.

2014 Bill James Projections - David Ortiz

©Kayla Chadwick 2013

2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI

2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI

2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI

2013: 137 games, .309 BA, .395 OBP, .564 SLG, 30 HR, 103 RBI

2014 projection: 146 games, .287 BA, .384 OBP, .531 SLG, 30 HR, 98 RBI

It's hard to believe that just a few years ago, Red Sox fans all over were openly speculating that David Ortiz's career was over - that his bat speed was gone, and his April struggles might be a harbinger of the years to come.

Instead, David Ortiz is like a fine wine: he's just getting better with age. Every year, Ortiz meets or exceeds the projection set forth by the fantastically prescient Bill James. Even during years when Big Papi lost significant time to injuries, like 2012, he manages to make up for lost time by performing well while on the field.

Of course, the true value of David Ortiz is not what he does during the regular season, but what he manages to accomplish once he gets to the postseason - something essentially impossible to predict.

Given the pattern from the last three years, I'm going to go ahead and guess that Ortiz will once again outperform James' projection. Perhaps he won't ever play more than 145 games again - but if we keep getting 30 home runs and 100 RBIs each year, I won't complain about playing time.