Lackey deals in Red Sox win

Photo by Matt West

What a difference a week makes - it hasn't been that long since we were crediting the bullpen with being the most reliable part of the Red Sox pitching staff. But last night the starter led the way, as John Lackey tossed eight innings, scattering six hits, no walks, and giving up just two runs.

Lackey departed with a sizable lead, and Edward Mujica came on for the ninth with a five run cushion - but he couldn't nail it down. Mujica managed to get two outs, but it was messy, as he allowed a leadoff double to James Loney, and a walk to Wil Myers - both of whom scored on a single and a throwing error by Xander Bogaerts.

At that point, John Farrell had apparently seen enough, and called out to the bullpen for Koji Uehara, who was able to close out the game on three pitches, striking out Ben Zobrist. How is it possible that Mujica couldn't pitch a single inning with a five run lead?

Luckily for the Red Sox, they now have the roster they had hoped to start the season with, meaning that the bullpen should have more leads to protect in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully Mujica can straighten himself out, because Uehara is thirty-nine years old, and even his seemingly magic arm needs regular rest.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jon Lester

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
2012: 9-14, 33 starts, 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 68 BB, 166 SO
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 211 IP, 3.71 ERA, 75 BB, 192 SO
2013: 15-8, 33 starts, 213.1 IP, 3.75 ERA, 67 BB, 177 SO
2014 projection: 14-9, 32 starts, 3.67 ERA, 71 BB, 193 SO

With the exception of the win-loss record, Bill James was essentially right on the money for Lester in 2013. Sure, Lester had slightly fewer strikeouts than James promised, but overall it was a solid projection of a solid season.

It's hard to believe that this time last year, the Sox brass was rumored to be considering a Lester for Wil Myers trade, and while Myers did well in his 88 games in Tampa Bay, I'm thrilled that we kept Lester.

This year it's Lester looking for a new contract. Rather than showing himself the door, he's looking to stay in Boston long term - but not at the expense of his own earning power:

"Obviously, Boston is my home. This is all I’ve known, all I’ve come accustomed to and all I want to know. My family enjoys it up there I enjoy it up there. There are a lot of factors in it. But at the same time, there’s a business side of it. Kind of like Jacoby [Ellsbury], I have to do what’s best for me and same thing with the Red Sox. Sometimes you have to part ways, hopefully that’s not the case when it comes down to us here in the future."

Lester is a talented left handed pitcher who has proven he can pitch in the AL East in high pressure situations, and as such he might command a longer contract than the Red Sox would be comfortable handing out. 

Hopefully he and the Red Sox can work something out, because the last thing I want is for Lester to perform as Bill James has always projected - for some other team.

2013 Bill James Projections - Jon Lester (with Wil Meyers)

2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
2012: 9-14, 33 starts, 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 68 BB, 166 SO
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 211 IP, 3.71 ERA, 75 BB, 192 SO

It's obvious that 2012 was by far Jon Lester's most disappointing season.  Like most of 2012, Lester's poor performance started at the end of 2011, and though he was one of the only players in the "Beer and Chicken Scandal" to take personal responsibility, that display of moral fiber didn't improve his numbers.

Looking at Bill James' 2012 projections next to Lester's actual performance, and you might see a pitcher who has somewhat lost his way: his ERA was more than a FULL RUN higher than James' projection (and Lester's 2011 performance), and for the first time in his career, Jon Lester lost more games than he won.

There's a lot of talk swirling around about a possible trade that would swap Lester for Kansas City Royals outfield prospect Wil Meyers. Meyers has never played a game in the majors, but the consensus around the league is that he'll be ready in 2013 - and for the first time in his career, he's listed in the Bill James Handbook.

2012 (AA-AAA): 134 games, .314 BA, 387. OBP, .600 SLG, 37 HR, 109 RBI
2013 projection: 147 games, .270 BA, .339 OBP, .486 SLG, 28 HR, 89 RBI

Meyers is undoubtedly a solid offensive player. A cost-controlled power hitting outfielder is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but is it good baseball-sense to accept a relative unknown for an established lefthanded starter like Lester? In my humble opinion, no. Despite the backslide of 2012, Lester is a bona fide workhorse. He's averaged 211 innings pitched every season, has avoided major injury, and has had prolonged periods of brilliance.

This trade is certainly not set in stone - or even particularly likely at this point. It wouldn't be the end of the world to swap Lester for Meyers, but it would be the very definition of selling low. Lester is worth much more than he showed in 2012, and while Meyers is very promising, he's not a franchise defining player.