2015 Bill James Projections - Dustin Pedroia

Source

 2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
2014: 135 games, .278 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG, 7 HR, 53 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .361 OBP, .421 SLG, 12 HR, 70 RBI

As a matter of principal, I'm going to go on record as saying that Bill James and his team have underestimated Dustin Pedroia's numbers for 2015. Why? Because people have been underestimating Dustin Pedroia his entire career, and he proves the doubters wrong every time.

Aside from that, Pedroia came into camp this year having had a productive offseason with no limits - the first such offseason in a number of years. As much as I love Pedroia (and I love him a lot), he can be his own worst enemy, thowing himself around the field with no regard to his own safety.

It's amazing to have a man on the field who puts the Red Sox winning over his own body and wellbeing - but Pedroia has a tendency to hurt himself sometimes in situations that didn't require such a balls-to-the-wall approach.

Red Sox fans know that Pedroia won't (can't!) tone things down situationally: his 110% all the time style of play is as much a part of him as trash talking and premature balding. It's a trade that anyone would make to have the tenacity and talent Pedroia possess suiting up for their team every day.

Former Red Sox skipper Terry Francona was known to say "If I had nine Dustins we'd win every game." Despite the inherent risks of a Pedroia-type player, I agree wholeheartedly with Tito, and I expect big things from my favorite Red Sox this season.

The Sentimentality of the Jon Lester Trade

©Kayla Chadwick 2012

In pure rational baseball terms, I don't hate the Jon Lester [and Jonny Gomes] for Yoenis Cespedes [and a draft pick] trade. Cespedes is a solid player, Lester's contract extension talks weren't going well, and it's certainly still possible that Lester returns to Boston as a free agent.

But I'm not a baseball fan because I'm rational - and I'm certainly not a Red Sox fan because I'm rational. I fell for this sport and this team in the same head-over-heels, giddy, out of control way that you fall for a first love. Sure, the fact that I was born and raised in New Hampshire made the Sox an obvious choice, but how could you not fall for the classic beauty of Fenway Park? For the fun-loving antics and absolute domination of Pedro Martinez, who dazzled Red Sox fans in his heyday?

Jon Lester didn't come onto the scene until I was already a diehard, but I fell in love with him just the same. Everyone knows Lester's amazing story: touted prospect is diagnosed with cancer, makes a miraculous recovery and returns to the game in time to win the clinching game of the 2007 World Series. Oh, and the very next season he threw a no-hitter, the eighteenth in franchise history.

Lester is a favorite among fans, teammates, and managers. The looks on Lester's and Terry Francona's faces as the two embraced following Lester's no-hitter never fails to make me tear up.

Source

Even when Lester was part of the infamous Beer and Chicken Incident of 2011, he was one of the only players involved to come forward, admit it was wrong, and work to move past it. He's grown from the rookie who looked up to Josh Beckett to a player John Farrell can point to as an example when pitchers come up through the system. The student has become the teacher.

Sure, Lester has had poor games, and even the odd mediocre season - but he's a good lefthanded pitcher who can be absolutely dominating under the right circumstances. He typically takes responsibility for his mistakes, and gives his teammates ample credit for their contributions to his successes. 

Lester is a fan favorite - and for good reason. He'll certainly help the A's down the stretch, and give Red Sox fans a good reason to watch the playoffs, even though the Sox are all but mathematically eliminated.

Even though the Lester trade makes good baseball sense, it's hard to see him go. He's yet another piece of the 2007 team gone, a home grown player with a story worthy of a blockbuster film, headed to the west coast in the blink of an eye. Sure, he might be back by next Opening Day - but it's just as likely that we'll never see him in a Red Sox uniform again.

Somehow, Lester is more than a baseball player to me (and, I suspect, to many of you). I hope he's successful going forward, that he wins a lot of games down the stretch, and most of all, that he comes home to us over this offseason.

Rough night for Boston sports

On a night when the New York Rangers took their first game of the Eastern Conference Semifinal series from the Bruins, the Red Sox got absolutely clobbered by the Indians at Fenway Park. Sure, the Bruins are still up in the series 3-1, but if any fanbase can tell you about how comeback from 3-0 is possible, it's Boston.

I still think the Bruins will take the series, despite what people like to say about possible momentum shifts. As for the Red Sox, the only silver lining to tonight's defeat is that it means good things for former Sox skipper Terry Francona, now the Indians manager.

Like most Red Sox fans, I have a lot of fond memories of Tito, and I wish him nothing but good - except when his new team is playing the Red Sox. So far this year, it seems like Francona's Indians can do no wrong, as they boast a 26-19 record, good for first place in the AL Central.

I guess if the Red Sox had to return from a three-city roadtrip to a beating like this one, I guess I'm glad that one of my favorite non-Red Sox baseball personalities gets to benefit from it.

Not Tito's gameplan

There aren't a lot of people in baseball that I love and esteem more than Terry Francona. He was a great manager for the Red Sox, and though he was apparently less effective near the end of his tenure, he helped Boston to two World Series titles. And, let's be real, his relationship with Dustin Pedroia is a national treasure.

All that being said, I am totally pumped that the Sox swept Tito's Indians. Cleveland can certainly use the joy of winning to take their mind off of things more than any city besides Detroit during a normal week, but Boston's need is greater right now. The Red Sox rose to the occasion, and haven't lost a game when we need them most as a distraction.

When asked about the Boston connection and the upcoming series prior to Monday's events, Francona had jokingly said while he loved his time in Boston, and the players he managed, he hoped for an Indians sweep. Though I wish him all the best in ll endeavors not against the Red Sox, I'm glad that Tito's wish was denied this time.

Tito's Cleveland Misadventures

The early returns for John Farrell's managerial career in Boston are overwhelmingly positive, as the Red Sox won the home opener yesterday to bring their record to a division-best 5-2, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't still miss old friend Terry Francona. Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating trying to snag him back from the Indians, but some days I'm overcome with nostalgia.

ESPN has a funny article about Tito somehow getting lost during his two-block walk to Progressive Field for the Indians opener yesterday. Francona commented about how he was unused to the friendliness of Clevelanders, but I don't take it personally, because I've always considered people outside of New England to be unnervingly affable.

Seriously though, click through and red the whole piece; it's super short, and a good use of three minutes - I promise you'll chuckle. I'm certainly happy with John Farrell thus far (though after the Bobby V. fiasco, I'm easily pleased), but Tito will forever have a special place in my heart.