Statement Start to 2018 for David Price

I'm sure yesterday's game was an uncomfortable experience for David Price doubters in Red Sox Nation. Price pitched a gem, going seven innings, with five strikeouts, scattering just five hits and allowing zero (!) walks.

That dominating performance led to the first win of the young season for the Red Sox, even with the minimum possible run support provided by an RBI single from Rafael Devers.

I know some Red Sox fans hoped David Price would opt out at the end of this season, given his less than stellar performances during the first two years of his deal. But the odds were never in their favor, given his age and the truly mind-boggling amount of money he'd be leaving on the table.

Prior to this offseason, you might have wagered that Price could chase an even higher payday with an out-of-this-world 2018 (setting aside that Charlie Morton, Adam Wainwright, and Dallas Keuchel will also be free agents, plus Clayton Kershaw could also opt out after this year, and no one wants to compete with him on the open market).

But you can bet that Price was watching the trajectory of last offseason with the rest of us: the days of behemoth contracts for aging players seem to be behind us - at least for now. Even if Kershaw opts to stick with the Dodgers, teams have been saving up for the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and might not have a hundred million dollars to spare for a 33-year-old pitcher.

Price himself seemed to confirm he was planning to stay, telling Jen McCaffrey of MassLive "I came here to win. I knew how tough it was to play here and pitch here. If you can go out there and win, I know all the emotions and everything's going to be better in that positive light. I look forward to doing that."

So whether you're a David Price fangirl like me, or a serial doubter, buckle up. The David Price era in Boston is just beginning - and I have a good feeling about the 2018 chapter, given how beautifully it started.

Opening Day was Good, Actually

Regardless of outcome, I think we can all agree that Opening Day should be a holiday. Honestly, even more so when you have to swallow spirit-crushing late-innings losses like the Red Sox coughed up yesterday afternoon.

But with the first loss of the season behind us, we can all relax into baseball's wonderful routine: we get to watch our team play 162 times over the course of six months - and then hopefully reset the standings and watch them compete well into October.

Baseball fans are truly #blessed.

I won't waste your time opining about the bullpen: we all know the Red Sox need to improve in that area. But there is one small silver lining. Remember the nightmare that was Matt Barnes on the road last season?

Home or Away -- Game-Level

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Away	2	2	.500	5.28	33	30.2	23	18	18	4	20	29	1.402

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 3/30/2018.

Barnes tossed a completely clean inning yesterday! At the Trop! Hopefully he's turned a corner, and the rest of his bullpen cohort can learn from his example.

Bullpen aside, Chris Sale was as spectacular as ever. Six shutout innings, nine strikeouts - Sale was betrayed by his own bullpen, but I'm sure he doesn't look at it that way. 

A throwback who berates himself for anything less than a complete game, Sale is likely back in the weight room, vowing to go the distance in his next outing, or at the very least, hand the ball directly to Craig Kimbrel.

In other positive news, Eduardo Núñez's knee looks like it's just fine, which is a huge relief after we watched him be carried off the field in Houston last October, and then saw him spend spring training treating the questionable joint with kid gloves.

Lastly, I think a lot of us came into the season underestimating what kind of factor Xander Bogaerts is going to be at the plate. An injury last season saw him underperforming, but there was no sign of that yesterday, as the shortstop clubbed two doubles against Chris Archer (whose line yesterday certainly doesn't reflect his skill).

The Red Sox are going to be fine. The bullpen will get better - and if they don't, I'm fully confident that Dave Dombrowski will make the moves necessary to avoid another catastrophic meltdown like the one we witnessed yesterday.

The beautiful thing about baseball is that you never have time to dwell on a loss, even one as gruesome as yesterday's. David Price takes the mound today, and I fully expect him to set the tone for what should be a huge year for him - and for the Red Sox.

Buckle in, fellow Red Sox fans: the season's just begun, and we've got (at least) 161 more games to watch. What could be better?

2016 Bill James Projections: Joe Kelly

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2012: 5-7, 16 starts, 107 IP, 3.53 ERA, 36 BB, 75 SO
2013 projection: 4-4, 0 starts, 67 IP, 4.16 ERA, 23 BB, 48 SO
2013: 10-5, 15 starts, 124 IP, 2.69 ERA, 44 BB, 79 SO
2014 projection: 6-7, 14 starts, 118 IP, 4.12 ERA, 41 BB, 81 SO
2014: 6-4, 17 starts, 96.1 IP, 4.20 ERA, 42 BB, 66 SO
2015 projection: 8-11, 28 starts, 172 IP, 4.19 ERA, 70 BB, 117 SO
2015: 10-6, 25 starts, 134.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 49 BB, 110 SO
2016 projection: 7-9, 25 starts, 144 IP, 4.25 ERA, 56 BB, 104 RBI

Despite his laudable ambitions for 2015, Joe Kelly fell far short of his Cy Young goal last season - and despite a better win-loss record than predicted, he failed to measure up to every other statistical projection.

There were flashes of brilliance, a few hints that Kelly might have a good (or even great) season buried somewhere deep inside. Most notably in August, when Kelly achieved the Holy Grail of Red Sox pitchers: a coveted - and warranted - comparison to Pedro Martinez. With an undefeated August, Kelly became the first Red Sox starter to earn six wins in a calendar month since Martinez did it in 1999.

The early season struggles and demotion to AAA Pawtucket were difficult to watch, but Kelly's late-season resurgence proved that the relatively young righthander has the resilience to stick it out and make the necessary adjustments to be a successful pitcher in the major leagues. 

I hate to lay even more responsibility at the feet of David Price, but his presence at the top of the rotation can only help the younger pitchers on the staff. He's proven in the past that he's a willing and able mentor for any teammates who might come to him for advice, and I have to believe that Kelly is the type of player to take full advantage of that.

If Kelly only manages the slight improvements projected by Bill James and his team for 2016, I'll admit to being a bit disappointed, seeing as he's already shown us he has the potential to be much, much better than that. Kelly will turn 28 this season, and while still on the young side, he should be entering his prime. The ceiling on Joe Kelly's potential is high, but he has a lot of minds to change in the course of reaching it.

2016 Bill James Projections: David Price

 

Source

2010: 19-6, 31 starts, 208.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 79 BB, 188 SO
2011 projection: 14-10, 32 starts, 217 IP, 3.57 ERA, 87 BB, 191 SO
2011: 12-13, 34 starts, 224.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 63 BB, 218 SO
2012 projection: 15-10, 34 starts, 226 IP, 3.31 ERA, 73 BB, 207 SO
2012: 20-5, 31 starts, 211 IP, 2.56 ERA, 59 BB, 205 SO (Cy Young winner)
2013 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 216 IP, 3.13 ERA, 63 BB, 202 SO
2013: 10-8, 27 starts, 186.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 27 BB, 151 SO
2014 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 218 IP, 3.01 ERA, 44 BB, 195 SO
2014: 15-12, 34 starts, 248.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 38 BB, 271 SO
2015 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 36 BB, 211 SO
2015: 18-5, 32 starts, 220.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 47 BB, 225 SO
2016 projection: 17-8, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 42 BB, 214 SO

After last year's (lack of) pitching fiasco, the Red Sox simply needed to go out this offseason and get themselves an ace. Luckily, the field was deep, including Zack Greinke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann. Red Sox Nation could feel confident that Opening Day would dawn with at least one of these guys taking the mound for the Red Sox.

I know many Red Sox fans would have preferred Greinke over Price. I was not one of them. We'll never know how Zack Greinke would have fared in a Red Sox uniform and in the AL East - and I'm guessing he much prefers it that way. Price, on the other hand, has pitched in the AL East for most of his career, and relishes the attention that comes with that.

As for the oft-cited enmity that existed between Price and Red Sox slugger David Ortiz? Anyone who thinks the two can't bury the hatchet to pursue the shared goal of a World Series Championship is seriously insulting both players' professionalism. I for one expect the two of them to show up to spring training sporting matching "Team David" t-shirts if it means the end of the discussion regarding their prior dislike for one another, and a renewed focus on winning.

At the end of the day, David Price is an ace. You can cite his less-than-impressive postseason numbers all you want (though please keep in mind we're dealing with small sample sizes and some curious managerial decisions regarding his use), but at the end of the day, he's a member of the Red Sox. Not to mention... you have to actually get to October before any of that is even a factor, something the Red Sox have failed to do quite often in recent years.

Bill James and his team project David Price to have another characteristically excellent season in 2016, complete with 200+ innings, and a strikeout to walk ratio over 5. David Price is an incredible athlete and competitor, and he's coming into Boston in 2016 with something to prove. I for one can't wait to watch.

John Lackey has the ball - and fans' confidence

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This time last year, no one could have imagined the scenario Red Sox fans are facing tonight. Not only are the Red Sox up 1-0 in the World Series (a pipe dream all on its own), but John Lackey is starting, and he has the full confidence of Red Sox Nation.

After the fallout from 2011's collapse, John Lackey was basically the poster boy for all the that plagued the Sox. Fans saw him as surly, lazy, and overpaid. The announcement that he would miss all of 2012 for Tommy John surgery was met with jeers rather than sympathy.

This season, he set out to turn his image around, and succeeded with flying colors. Despite the misleading 10-13 record, Lackey's ERA was a solid 3.52, his lowest since coming to Boston, and the third lowest of his eleven-year career. He struck out 161 players, while walking just 40.

If it's possible, he's been even more impressive this postseason, taking Game 2 of the ALDS against David Price and the Rays, and then outdueling Justin Verlander in Game 3 of the ALCS.

Indeed, Lackey's Game 3 start is probably the most underrated performance of the postseason - FOX was too busy drooling over Verlander to note the fact that John Lackey out-pitched him, shutting out that vaunted Tigers lineup for six and two-thirds innings.

Lackey's home-away splits are well documented, and with Clay Buchholz dealing with shoulder tightness, it makes sense for Lackey to start Game 2 tonight.

Via Baseball-Reference

I don't for a second believe the Cardinals will keep playing like they played last night. The Red Sox will have to battle going forward - but Lackey is the guy I want on the mound tonight.

The man, the legend: Big Papi

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I don't know about any of you, but when I heard that last night was David Ortiz's first multi-home run playoff game, I did a double take. This is a player who has put the Red Sox on his back during multiple postseasons spanning a decade.

Big Papi's postseason homers are legendary in Red Sox lore - a storied history already full of larger-than-life characters, and last night he added to that.

Of course, not everyone was thrilled. I'm talking, of course, about Rays starter David Price, who took issue with Ortiz's second home run, or more accurately, with the way Big Papi watched it leave the yard.

I sympathize with Price: we Red Sox fans know what it's like to be swept out of the first round of the playoffs, and that feeling is certainly multiplied when your performance is directly responsible. But it's part of the game: sometimes players are going to show you up, and during the playoffs, everyone's emotions are running extra high.

David Ortiz has not hit his last home run of 2013. But David Price has likely pitched his last game of this postseason - possibly even his last in a Rays uniform.

The Red Sox and Rays will resume the ALDS in the ugliest stadium on the east coast on Monday night.  Clay Buchholz will take on Alex Cobb at the Trop tomorrow: Buchholz will be looking to send the Sox to the ALCS, and Cobb will be desperately trying to ward off elimination for the Rays - again.

ALDS Game 2 Hopes for John Lackey and Co.

[Photo source]

Today is the first ACC football game here at Syracuse University, so of course I'll be there. However, kickoff is at 3:30pm, and Game 2 of the Red Sox/Rays ALDS starts at 5:37pm, so I'll probably leave at halftime to get home in time for my real love in life: baseball.

Yesterday's game was glorious. I won't rehash all of my reactions here (if you want them, check out the premier episode of my new podcast), but I will say that my favorite part of Game 1 was the team-first nature of the victory.

Sure, my favorite player is Dustin Pedroia; anyone who's spent two minutes with me or on this blog could tell you that. Yes, it was awesome that Pedey had the first hit in the Red Sox rally.

But the most incredible thing about yesterday was the most incredible thing about this team: it was truly a collaborative effort. Every Red Sox batter had at least one hit and one run scored. No Red Sox batter had a home run, and all that incredible production was the result of guys getting on base and trusting their compatriots to drive them in.

Jon Lester had an incredible start, and Junichi Tazawa and Ryan Dempster finished the game with barely a hiccup. Fenway aficionado John Lackey takes the mound tonight. The last time Lackey pitched in an ALDS, he took home the win - for the Angels, against Lester in 2009.

Once upon a time, before Tommy John surgery, before the chicken and beer debacle, John Lackey was lauded as a big-game pitcher. The Angels handed him the ball in their biggest moments, and he didn't let them down.

After a tough first few years in Boston, and the beginnings of redemption this season, John Lackey will climb the mound tonight looking to be that big-game guy once again. Earlier this season, I predicted a John Lackey resurgence... hopefully he'll continue to provide evidence for that point of view tonight.

And hopefully his teammates can duplicate some of the offensive fireworks from yesterday against Rays ace David Price. I have a good feeling about tonight.

Lester and #DrewCrew lead the charge

Jon Lester came through tonight, getting the win in a much needed Red Sox victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, David Price is killing my fantasy team, but since I also have Lester on the roster, I guess it all balances out.

The oft-maligned Stephen Drew was a key part of the victory, as he crushed a grand slam in the third inning. The Sox would score eight runs total in the third, batting through their entire order in an explosion of offensive production - and ousting Price from the game early on. Will Middlebrooks added a solo homer in the top of the eight inning.

Lester went seven innings and allowed two earned runs on eight hits, no walks, and recorded five strikeouts. It would be great for the Red Sox if Felix Doubront could keep this momentum going tomorrow, especially since both the Yankees and the Orioles lost this evening (to the Mariners and the Padres, respectively).

Sox struggle at the Trop

Despite getting off to a great start when David Ortiz crushed a three run homer int he top of the first inning, the Red Sox lost their third straight game and suffered their ninth loss in the last eleven games at Tropicana Field this evening. John Lackey looked great for the first couple of innings, and then crumbled in the fourth.

The Rays scored all five of their runs in the fourth inning - two on a botched popup that got lost in the lights and catwalks of the Trop and dropped between Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli. Somehow, that play was scored as a hit, and those two go-ahead runs would be more than enough for the Rays.

Remarkably, the Red Sox are still third in the AL East standings, which speaks more to the incredible success they had in April than anything they have attempted to accomplish since. John Lackey looked pretty fantastic before his fourth inning struggle - just as he looked solid in his last start before his own throwing error signalled the beginning of the end in a similar meltdown.

Jon Lester will get the start tomorrow for the Sox against David Price. Lester is 5-0 with a 2.73 ERA this season, including a complete game shutout (just one hit away from a perfect game) in his last outing, while David Price has been underperforming thus far. With an ERA creeping up near five, and just a single win to his name, Price is not exactly the fearsome competitor he's been in years past. Still, lately the Red Sox have found all kinds of ways to lose, so I won't take the outcome of tomorrow's game for granted.

Viva King Felix!!!

Seattle's Felix Hernandez took the American League Cy Young Award this week, and despite all the whining from the peanut gallery (ahem, New York and Tampa), King Felix was the right choice.

Obviously, with a record of 13-12, Hernandez wasn't even in the running in terms of wins, but we did learn from last year's winner (Zack Greinke) that the voters are beginning to understand that wins are by no means the most important statistic. If fact, wins are completely subjective; a pitcher could literally have a 0.00 ERA with no hits, walks, or hit batsmen, and end his season with zero wins.

On the other hand, it's conceivable that a player could have an ERA over 5 and win twenty games. Neither of these scenarios are likely, of course, but that fact that they are technically possible should set the alarm bells off in your brain: wins are practically useless as a statistic.

Felix Hernandez had the lowest ERA in the league (just .06 runs better than our own Clay Buchholz) at 2.27, and the highest WAR (6.0), all while pitching more innings than anyone in the American League.

Of course, the whining coming out of New York and Tampa Bay is predictable, since they can claim the third and second-place players, but the reasoning behind their arguments is bordering on absurd:

Keith, I expected better from you, but I guess I'll have to ask you to leave the sports talk to those who have done the research and actually UNDERSTAND the statistics. You could just as easily argue that Price and Sabathia (I presume he was referring to them) actually had the benefit of knowing a good lineup - a PENNANT CALIBER lineup, if you will - would bail them out if they turned in an occasional stinker. Hernandez? Not so much. HE was pressured to give up ZERO runs every time he pitched, and STILL not always get the win.

I also had someone make the argument that Price should have won because "he was young and carried the team on his back." Umm, okay... except King Felix is YOUNGER THAN PRICE, and Price was responsible for 19.7% of the Rays' total wins, while Hernandez was responsible for 21.3% of the Mariners' total wins.

So I guess the point here is this: despite the fact that the BBWAA has learned that there's more to life than a sparkly win-loss record, fans have not. I guess it's up to their peers to educate them, one stubborn traditionalist at a time.

So far, so good...

Keep it going, Clay!

Jon Lester started the series off right last night, going seven shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits and one (unearned) run. David Price was good, but Jonny KKKKKKKKKK Lester was better. Bard and Paps came in to close things out, and while the closer managed to put the tying run on base, he did not allow a run.

The bats were all over Price: though they scored just three runs on the lefty, there were hard-hit balls all over the place, and the Sox notched ten hits.

Victor Martinez in particular had a great night, going yard twice (both off of Price), for just his second and third home run since coming off the disabled list with a broken thumb. Papi had a double (and scored a run), and Darnell McDonald legged out a triple to round out a powerful showing for the Sox.

Tonight has the American League ERA leader, Clay Buchholz, facing off against Tampa Bay righty Matt "The Spitter" Garza. Despite being a generally good pitcher against the Sox (3.64 career ERA; 7-3 record), Garza's ERA of 3.62, while respectable, is over a run higher than Buchholz's 2.26.

Overall, I think the Sox have a good chance of taking this one... and you know I'll be watching, hoping, and rooting for another win.

Young Guns

Need more proof that the American League East is the toughest division in baseball? The three pitchers with the most wins in the AL all reside within our division: David Price (Tampa Bay), Phil Hughes (New York), and our own Clay Buchholz all have 10 wins on the season.
Even more impressive? Their average age is twenty-four. In fact, Clay is the elder statesman among them, and he'll be twenty-six in August. The pitcher with the most wins in the National League, Ubaldo Jimenez (13-1), is just twenty-six himself. So what does all this mean?

None of the teams with the leading pitchers have records under .500, and, of course, of the AL teams, all three teams are within a game of first place in their division. The importance of pitching cannot be understated, and the Red Sox have come to appreciate the truth in the age-old adage, "you can never have too much pitching."

At the beginning of the season, we were fretting over how all six starters would get enough innings, and somehow, two of the games I've been to this month were started by Scott Atchison and and Felix Dubront, respectively. Of course, both games ended in a "W" for the Sox, so I won't complain, but we're a long way from the "How will Tim Wakefield get to start?" "What happens when everyone's healthy?" shenanigans of Spring Training.


Who would have thought that it would be Clay Buchholz who would be leading the Sox in wins in late June? After Josh Beckett's contract extension, the signing of former Angels' ace John Lackey, and the de facto coronation of Jon Lester as Sox ace, Buchholz came in just before Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka in terms of expectations. Sure, he showed flashes of brilliance at the end of last season, but we didn't know what to expect from him in 2010.

If there were any doubts left, Clay can handle himself, and he's part of a wave of great young pitching emerging across MLB. I for one am glad he's on our side.