Masahiro Tanaka to the Yankees

Source

It was almost inevitable. Do you remember what happened last time the Yankees missed the playoffs, in 2008? By those standards, this season's shopping spree is downright blasé.

So Masahiro Tanaka, the pride of the Rakuten Golden Eagles, will pick up and move from Japan to New York - after signing one of the most lucrative contracts ever for a pitcher. This contract is par for the course for the Yankees, despite the relative unknown of how Tanaka will do against major league talent.

Currently twenty-five years old, Tanaka will be thirty-two (and ostensibly in his baseball prime) when the seven year deal runs out (or twenty-nine after the fourth year opt-out). If Tanaka remains a top of the rotation guy, the $22 million average annual value is legitimate.

But that's a pretty big "if." We've all heard the hype: Tanaka went 24-0 last season with an incredible 1.27 ERA in the Japanese League. He's averaged 25 starts per season, with a 2.30 ERA in since 2007. But he's pitched a total of 1315 innings since he started playing professionally when he was just eighteen years old.

We know that it's basically impossible to know how Japanese players will perform when entering Major League Baseball, and Red Sox fans are intimately familiar with the frustration that can happen when the honeymoon period is over.

But as tedious as it was to watch Daisuke Matsuzaka by the end of his deal, he went 33-15 during the first two years of his deal and helped the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series. Matsuzaka clashed with Red Sox trainers and coaches about workouts and workloads - and it didn't end well.

Tanaka is just a year younger than Matsuzaka was when the latter came to Boston, and has pitched just about 80 fewer innings. The two have a similar build. Based on experiences with Matsuzaka (and the similarities between the two pitchers), I would imagine Tanaka will be a great performer for the Yankees for the first few years of his contract, but their training staff should be prepared to keep a close eye on him.

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter if this contract is a success or a flop for New York: as we saw this offseason (and as we've seen many times before), their front office motto might as well be, "If at first you don't succeed, buy, buy again."

Escaping the Carnage of the World Baseball Classic?

According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox may send just two of their major leaguers to the World Baseball Classic this year, with the possibility that both Alfredo Aceves (Mexico), and Shane Victorino (USA) will participate. This is a striking change for the Red Sox, who sent a much larger array of players to the 2006 and 2009 WBC.

The 2009 tournament particularly affected the Red Sox, because after Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched Team Japan to its second WBC title (and himself to its MVP), he was on and off the disabled list for the entire MLB season. The Red Sox did get some amusement out of that year's WBC, as Kevin Youkilis restyled his famous goatee:

And we all had some mixed feelings about the brand new bromance between Red Sox second baseman and all around dirt dog Dustin Pedroia and Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter - I mean, I know the tournament is supposed to be about forging connection, but come on!

And for what? The USA finished fourth in the 2009 WBC, because most US players feel their first allegiance is to the team that pays them (and MLB), while in Japan, playing for the national team is a huge honor.

And so I predict that this year, like every World Baseball Classic thus far, Japan will take home the first place, and Daisuke Matsuzaka might even claim his third MVP (though the rosters haven't been announced yet, so no guarantee he's playing). But for the Red Sox, the effect the tournament has on spring training and the 2013 season should be (thankfully) minimized.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

I've waited long enough to see if we'll be getting any new and exciting pitching additions - Spring Training is fast approaching (and Lester is already in camp!), so it's high time to finish out the 2012 projections.

LHP Jon Lester:
2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
I thought James was being too pessimistic about Lester in his projection for 2011, and he turned out to be pretty much right on the nose.  Hopefully Lester can top this, but these numbers certainly aren't anything to scoff at.

RHP Josh Beckett:
2011 projection: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA, 49 BB, 155 SO
2011: 13-7, 30 starts, 193 IP, 2.89 ERA, 52 BB, 175 SO
2012 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 186 IP, 3.63 ERA, 53 BB, 169 SO
James underestimated Beckett last year, and I think there's a good chance he's done so again. Beckett came into camp last year with something to prove after his injury-marred 2010, and this year he'll have a chip on his shoulder about the way last year ended.


RHP Clay Buchholz:
2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO
2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
A lot of things went wrong in 2011, but losing Buchholz for the entire second half should not be overlooked: a healthy Clay and we probably would have been playing in October. That said, Buchholz has the Sox counting on him to be healthy, and he'll want to show that they were right to trust him - I think James is spot on.

Now comes the guesswork: will Alfredo Aceves be starting in 2012? How about Daniel Bard, who has also expressed interest? Will Tim Wakefield get invited to camp, or will we finally be saying goodbye? For the purposes of this post, I'll only be doing the projections for players James projected assuming they were starters (this means Aceves and Bard will be in the bullpen post - even if Valentine has them in the rotation).

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka:
2011 projection: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA, 73 BB, 158 SO
2011: 3-3, 7 starts, 37.1 IP, 5.30 ERA, 23 BB, 26 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 74 IP, 4.14 ERA, 37 BB, 66 SO
If you're like me, when Matsuzaka underwent Tommy John surgery last June, you were probably thinking "good riddance." I'd had enough of Matsuzaka, who has never been the pitcher for the Sox that he seems to be in Japan.  But on the bright side, he can't get much worse, and maybe after TJ he'll be better for his presumptive midseason return.

LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 14 starts, 65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 43 BB, 54 SO
2011: 6-3, 12 starts, 65 IP, 5.54 ERA, 41 BB, 50 SO
2012 projection: 3-5, 12 starts, 70 IP, 5.40 ERA, 47 BB, 58 SO
Obviously James isn't expecting Miller to start too much this year - and with those projected numbers, hopefully he won't.


RHP Tim Wakefield:
2011 projection: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 37 BB, 72 SO
2011: 7-8, 23 starts, 154 IP, 5.12 ERA, 47 BB, 93 SO
2012 projection: 4-4, 12 starts, 80 IP, 4.16 ERA, 24 BB, 48 SO
Obviously, Wake's not even signed right now, and it would be putting Valentine in a rough position if they invited the 45-year-old knuckleballer to Spring Training. But for some reason, James thinks Wakefield's ERA will fall by nearly a run, but that he'll throw barely half the innings he did last year. We'll see.

After the top three (37- 27 combined), the dropoff is pretty steep. Though I wasn't sad to see the back of John Lackey for Tommy John surgery of his own, his absence really exposes how shallow this rotation is. Hopefully Cherington can pull something out of thin air.  In-house possibilities include Junichi Tazawa, Stolmy Pimentel (though he's just 22 and needs some more seasoning), Felix Doubront, Aceves, and Bard (though the latter two would leave GAPING holes in the bullpen). None of these players were included in James' 2012 Handbook as starters, so their numbers aren't in this post.

さようなら, Daisuke

Despite the fact that we are still waiting on an official club announcement, the murmurs are growing louder, and Tommy John surgery seems to be in the cards for Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Maybe it had to end this way: a surgical procedure with an excruciating recovery period for a pitcher who has often been excruciating to watch.

In his 4+ seasons in Boston, Matsuzaka has notched a 49-30 record with a 4.25 ERA.  He has pitched 622.2 innings, recording 568 strikeouts, issuing 301 walks, and allowing 64 home runs.  His best season was in 2008, when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA and played 4th in Cy Young voting.  In his very first season in the Majors, Matsuzaka recorded 15 wins and helped the Red Sox to their second World Series win in four years.

Since 2008, Daisuke has hit the DL multiple times each season, and has become as enigmatic as AJ Burnett when he is able to pitch.  He has been the opposite of Pedro Martinez, in that you attempt to buy tickets to ANY OTHER GAME because his performances are lame and forgettable as he nibbles around the strikezone for about 5 innings.

Remember the hype surrounding him back in the 206-2007 offseason?  He was coming, and then he wasn't.  And then he was, and he was bringing his gyroball with him.  THAT certainly never panned out, but we were all equally excited at the possibility.

The first season was satisfactory, and even if it hadn't been, it ended with a World Series, so any hiccups would have been swept under the rug in the honeymoon period.  2008 was fantastic, though Matzukaka didn't nail it down in the playoffs.

Since then, it's all been down hill.  16-15 in the last three years, and just 45 games started - I don't know about you, but I'm not all that torn up to be saying goodbye.  Sure, he's turned in a gem or two over the years, but the stinkers were much more consistent, and for me, much more memorable.  Sure, it's a lot of money lost, but it's not like John Henry can't afford it, eh?

I'M BACK!

And, in more exciting news, so are the Red Sox.  Despite the fact that the local nine only managed to split yesterday's doubleheader, they're still tied for first place in the AL East.  After that brutal beginning, who would have thought we'd recover by Memorial Day?

Admittedly, we owe some thanks to the Yankees and the Rays (and all of their successful opponents, of course) for dragging their feet out of the gate, as well.  Somehow, we've survived injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey, and while Lackey looks to be on his way back soonish, there are whispers of Tommy John surgery for Matsuzaka.

Tito claims that surgery is not a possibility, but there's also no word as to when the enigma will be returning.  Luckily, Alfredo Aceves and Tim Wakefield have been performing admirably in the meantime.  Each of these "placeholders" have notched two wins already this season, and it will be interesting to see who gets pushed into the bullpen when Lackey makes his (hopefully) triumphant return.

My bet is on Aceves, since he's the more conventional hurler, and Wakefield has made it known in recent years how he feels about the bullpen.  We all know about Tito's loyalty to his veterans, and Wake is the capital-"V" veteran of this team.

Whatever happens, I'm just SO HAPPY to be back home where I can watch EVERY Red Sox game on NESN on my very own TV, where I don't have to fight with the internet of MLB.tv, and where I can't go anywhere without seeing somebody wearing a Sox hat. Home sweet home, indeed.

Fear: A powerful motivator for Daisuke Matsuzaka

Who was that man last night (and the start before, for that matter), and what has he done with Daisuke Matsuzaka?  In all seriousness, over the last two starts, Matsuzaka has given up two hits, and no runs in fifteen innings.  It's especially impressive when you consider that his first two starts of 2011 saw him giving up ten runs in seven innings.

So what's the deal?  Well, we may finally be seeing the pitcher that we thought we were getting: the one who's been missing for three years except when he's wearing the Team Japan WBC uniform.  Matsuzaka has pitched brilliantly of late, mixing speeds and pitches, and attacking the strikezone - you know, all those things John Farrell and now Curt Young have been trying to get him to do all along.

Apparently, Daisuke Matsuzaka is totally aware that these last two starts have been probably the best he's had with the Red Sox, but the surprising (and vaguely infuriating) thing is that he remarked after Monday's game in Toronto that "he was motivated by the fear of losing his spot in the rotation." (via Boston.com's Extra Bases.)

So basically, until he thought he might lose his job (something Tito says was never a possibility), the Red Sox were never important enough to Daisuke to really buckle down and give it his all.  Personally, I always suspected that the Red Sox and MLB came in at a distant second on Matsuzaka's list of priorities, far lower than #1 Team Japan.  In a culture where personal and national honor is the most important thing in a person's life, this is unsurprising, but still disappointing.

It's clear that hoisting the WBC trophy for Japan, and then the WBC MVP trophy was a much bigger point in Daisuke's life than holding the World Series trophy in 2007.  Perhaps we should be proud to have this sort of player on the team: one to which honor for his country and himself means more than $50 million - a rarity in today's world. But it IS sad that only fear of losing his slot in the starting rotation could truly motivate Matsuzaka into pitching to the best of his ability, but I'll take whatever works, at this point.

As Terry Francona said, "If that’s the case I’ll go out and threaten him.”  If it would help, I'll be happy to do the same.

The Red Sox are turning things around...

Buenos noches, amigos!  No, that's not my Jerry Remy impersonation - this blog post is coming to you from Argentina - my homestay in Buenos Aires requires that I speak exclusively Spanish, so I thought I would practice on you.

But enough about me [though I'm happy to share travel stories via Twitter, Facebook, or email if any of you are curious] - this is a Red Sox blog.  Since I was last able to post, the Red Sox have won three straight, and actually look as though they WANT to win.  So what's been the difference?  What's making everything click?

1. The renaissance of Joshua Patrick Beckett.  Coming into 2011, countless journalists, bloggers, and sportscasters (including yours truly) predcited that Beckett would be the key to the season.  If we could get the vintage Beckett circa 2007 it would mean big things, but if we got the Beckett of 2008 and 2009 it would be a long haul.  Of course, there's a lot of games left to play, but Beckett's last two starts have been downright dominating.

2. The continuation of the Daisuke Matsuzaka roller coaster.  Two starts ago Matsuzaka gave up an ungodly amount of runs, and it was the last straw for a number of commentators.  There was more than one piece online calling for Matsuzaka to be traded, even if the owners need to eat a ton of money and get only middling prospects in return.  In his last start, Daisuke was brilliant - and in the Patriots' Day spotlight, no less.  Now, if only we could be somehwta sure he could show us that level of expertise on a semi-regular basis... dare to dream.

3. Jed Lowrie is an absolute BEAST.  The man is totally raking this season, and it shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.  It's easy to forget the trials of Jed Lowrie in the exciting acquisitions that came this past offseason, but the 27-year-old was a highly regarded prospect (and a former 1st round pick) for a number of years.  Then, of course, the plague struck: first it was the wrist injury, which then recurred.  Last year, the poor man was struck down by mono, and out until the end of the summer.  Now he's looking to make up for lost time... I for one have capitalized on his ambition by adding him to my fantasy roster.

Of course, there are other reasons as well - some of this is simple dumb luck, and some of it is the fact that things seem to finally be clicking.  I'm not going to analyze this any more now - the Sox are playing and I can ATUALLY WATCH THEM, so I'm going to do that - but updates should be more frequent now that I have reliable internet at my homestay.  Adios!

More tweaking for Matsuzaka

Opening Day is getting closer and closer every day, and things are starting to solidify for the already-pretty-solid Sox. We've got a relatively set lineup (though Tito is hesitant to say as much), and an eviable rotation (Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Beckett, and Matsuzaka) - the only thing in any state of flux seems to be the bullpen, but that's a topic for another day.

Today, I would like to discuss a man who is a bonafide legend not just in his hometown (most major-leaguers are) but all across his nation. Yes, this is going to be a post about Daisuke Matsuzaka, the pride of Tokyo. [I'll try to make it easier to read than he is to watch.] We'll skip over the usual hyperbole about his enigma status and jump right into the reason for this post: Sox pitching coach Curt Young thinks he may have a solution.

So what is this "solution?" Is it voodoo? Magic? Icy-Hot? According to Young (via the Boston Globe online), the secret might just be shuffling Matsuzaka's off-day workouts. In MLB, starting pitchers are on a five-man rotation, meaning they usually get four days off between starts. Matsuzaka operated with a six-man rotation back in Japan, meaning that he did his long-toss and bullpen sessions on the same day. [This seems strange at first: why do everything on one day if you have extra time? The theory seems to be that you can do a more intense workout because you have the extra day to recover.]

Since coming to the Red Sox in 2007, Matsuzaka has been doing his workouts his way, and Young thinks switching things up, with long-toss and bullpen on the second and third day after his start, respectively, could make a positive difference.

On behalf of Red Sox Nation, I have one thought to sum up the whole Matsuzaka predicament: whatever the change is, JUST DO IT [apologies to Nike]. Hopefully this change will cure him of that horrible tendency to nibble the corners instead of challenging hitters, as well as allowing him to pitch well past the fifth inning - both skills that have thus far mostly eluded Matsuzaka in Boston.

For me [and I'm guessing for many of you] the most frustrating thing about Daisuke is that he HAS been the dominating guy we thought we were getting... for Japan in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, where he went 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and was awarded the WBC MVP Award. Great. And as I'm sure you all remember, he played in only 12 games for the red Sox that season, going 4-6 with an ERA well over 5.

Hopefully this is the year that we'll finally see that guy playing in a Red Sox uniform. Will we see the mythical gyroball? Probably not, but I'll settle for a quality season from a player who certainly has the talent.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

Yesterday we established that the 2010 version of the Red Sox performed at a poorer than expected level because of pitching, and not (exclusively) injuries. This was particularly surprising because the rotation was the one thing we all figured we wouldn't have to worry about: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka - and we even had Wakefield, who, despite his age and lack of consistency, is a hell of a sixth man.

However, there were injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka, and Lackey was rather less productive than we'd collectively hoped (I suppose you could say he was LACKing - get it?!?). The bullpen was a volitile mess, especially if you look at their performance without counting the stats from Bard and Paps (who had his worst season, but still superior to most relievers).

So what's in store for next year? No one can know for sure, but the Bill James Handbook at least offers predictions based on math I don't really understand, rather than total guesses pulled out of thin air.

So, without further ado, here are James' predictions for members of the presumptive pitchers for the 2011 Sox (accompanied by their 2010 numbers):

Josh Beckett:2010: 6-6, 21 starts, 127.2 IP, 5.78 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA
Beckett's lost season was a HUGE part of the reason the Sox missed out on the playoffs in 2010, and even a reasonable bounce back like the one James is predicting would give the Red Sox a fantastic edge.

Clay Buchholz:2010: 17-7, 28 starts, 173.2 IP, 2.33 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA
I'm going to go on record here and guess that James is underestimating Clay. The dominance we saw last season was not a fluke, and I'm confident Buchholz can be consistent in 2011. There's a reason Theo hasn't accepted any trade offers for Clay, and what we saw last year was just the beginning.

John Lackey:2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
When I actually saw Lackey's 2010 stats, I have to confess to being a bit surprised that he was such an innings-eater. If he can live up to these predictions as the third/fourth starter, I will be content.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:2010: 9-6, 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 4.69 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA
Again, I'll take it. No, Matsuzaka has never been the ace we thought we were getting way back in the offseason of 2007, but (aside from his lost 2009) he's been more than adequate for the back of the rotation, and I expect he'll continue to be consistent(ly infuriating to watch).

Jon Lester:2010: 19-9, 32 starts, 208 IP, 3.25 ERA
2011 prediction: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA
I think Lester will do better than this, especially if he can figure out how to avoid the awful April we've come to expect from him. James badly underestimated Lester in his predictions for 2010, and I think he's cut the southpaw short again this year.

Tim Wakefield:2010:4-10, 19 starts, 130 IP 5.34 ERA
2011 predictions: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA
If Wake gets to start at all in 2011, it will be spot starts here and there. The knuckleballer's career is winding down, and though it's hard to say goodbye, this season will likely be his last.

I'm going to leave the relievers out of this equation for now, since roles and such will be in flux, and the Sox bullpen is likely going to see some serious revamping before Opening Day (which is MUCH too far away). But, if the members of the rotation listed above can match their projections (and if one or two of them *cough*Buchholz*Lester*cough* can exceed them), I think 2011 will be a much more productive year for the Sox, at least pitching-wise.

I think I can...

The Red Sox are... dare I say it... turning things around. They picked up a game on New York last night - something they failed to do while IN New York - and while the Rays won, I think this team still has a shot.

Call me an optimist (it might be the first time), but I still believe this team can make the playoffs, and do well there. Dustin Pedroia is tentatively expected back next week, and while Kevin Youkilis is not coming through that door, Pedey could provide the spark they need to go on a tear.

Last night's game was a bit of an oddity, as Daisuke Matsizaka was brilliant in the first inning, and fell apart later on, but his teammates had his back, scoring seven runs, and the bullpen was pretty good. Youngster Felix Doubront was particularly impressive, working out of a sixth-inning bases-loaded jam by striking out Travis Snider.

Doubront did allow Jose Bautista to tie the game in the seventh inning with his 35th homer of the season, but again the bats came through (!), with a Mike Lowell home run and a Jed Lowrie RBI double. Papelbon closed it out with limited theatrics, and the Sox notched their sixty-fifth win of the season.

Clay Buchholz is currently going for number sixty six... Let's go, boys!

You can NEVER have too much pitching...

Remember this guy? Best attitude in baseball.

And ain't that the truth. The Red Sox hurlers were not spared when the injury bug attacked, as they lost starters Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Clay Buchholz for differing amounts of time, leaving the likes of Felix Dubrount and Scott Atchison to spot start.

For a team that has such a wealth of pitching on the 40-man roster, this week will mark the first time that Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Daisuke Matsuzaka will pitch all within seven days. However, after this week, Wakefield will likely be heading off to join the bullpen band, as he's generally the odd man out when the rotation gets overcrowded.

Of course, Wake has made it clear that he's less than fond of the 'pen, which is understandable since he's not getting any younger and getting up and getting warm is more difficult now than it was, say, ten years ago. Unfortunately, he's been pretty inconsistent this season, and the only player with MORE consistency issues is Daisuke, who has been consistently bad in the first inning, which effectively eliminates the 'pen from the realm of possibility.

The importance of the return of a full, heralded rotation absolutely can not be overstated, and the impending return of players like Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia, and Jed Lowrie (remember him?) could be the catalyst this team needs.

The Yankees got roughed up by the Angels last night, while the Rays lost - in embarrassing fashion - to the Orioles, so the Sox didn't lose any ground last night, despite losing a heartbreaker to the A's. Today's game is bright and early, at 3:35pm, so i'll actually be awake for the final out. Today is the first day of the rest of this season, ladies and gentlemen... I can feel it.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: A nibbler for the ages.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is, in a word, maddening. In his last start, we saw a flash of the brilliance that made Theo and Co. believe he was worth $100+million, and then last night he became Dice-BB, the enigma we have come to know and loathe.

Though this picture IS hilarious...

The fact is that even when Matsuzaka is winning, he is not fun to watch. The man won 18 games in 2008, and he nibbled his way through all of them. The most frustrating thing of all is that occasionally we get to see what it looks like when he stops trying to finesse opposing batters and really goes after them - it's a beautiful thing, unless you're the Philadelphia Phillies.

Somehow, Matsuzaka mystified the Phils through 7 2/3 hitless innings, flirting with a no-hitter but "settling" for 8 innings of shutout baseball. Who was that man, and where the hell was he last night? Yesterday evening, Daisuke Matsuzaka flirted with a different kind of history: there are just nineteen no-hitters in Red Sox history, but only three Sox pitcher have allowed eight free passes in a game in the last FIFTEEN YEARS. According to the Globe's Peter Abraham (via Twitter, @peteabe), the last Sox pitcher to do so was Matsuzaka himself, in May of 2008, and before that was Josh Beckett (8/19/06), and then you have to go way back to 1994, when Chris Nabholz achieved the dubious distinction.

What, you don't remember Chris Nabholz's one year in Boston? 3-4, 6.64 ERA? Twenty-nine walks in eight games? Lucky you.

The only time I've ever witnessed Daisuke pitch in person came on October 16, 2008. ALCS Game 5. And he was less than impressive, allowing 5 runs in 6 innings. Luckily, as you all know, the bats bailed him out in dramatic fashion, and the Sox lived to see another day. However, I don't like seeing Matsuzaka pitch, even when he's doing well, and every time it looks like he'll be pitching a game I have tickets to, I groan. Somehow I've escaped it for a while, but you can only be lucky for so long.

Tonight, Shakey Wakey goes against Kyle Davies. Let's hope HIS Philadelphia performace was more than a fluke... Get us back on track, Wake!

Excuse me, please...

The Red Sox head off to Toronto tonight, and I have to admit being less than enthused. Firstly, I won't get to watch, and I always enjoy watching Beckett pitch, even when it's in Rogers Centre.

Second only to the Trop in ugliness!

But more than anything, this team is not what I expected as a fan. Now, hear me out, because this isn't going to be a whiny, "Go out and pay too much for Adrian Gonzalez/Prince Fielder/Hanley Ramirez/MC Hammer" rant, but a story of polite bewilderment.

This team is better than they are playing. Yes, the injuries are hurting them early (a hernia and cracked ribs? Seriously?), but the Sox of years' past made it past those difficulties - hell, last year's version had Nick Green, the third shortstop on the depth chart, starting 74 games (but the man did have a 0.00 ERA).

Think he's available for the 'pen?

Something's gotta give. One home run notwithstanding, David Ortiz is struggling, and JD Drew is positively anemic - even his generally rock-solid OBP is under par. The defense is making stupid mistakes, and the bullpen is downright laughable. No offense to Baltimore, but when the Red Sox have provided a third of their wins thus far, we have a problem.

I don't know what the answer is, and I suspect the players and coaches are just as confused; it seems like the Sox are hardly showing up for some games, and that's way more worrisome than a few slumping sluggers. Maybe Daisuke Matsuzaka's impending return to the rotation will help (did I really just write that?), or perhaps Tim Wakefield's veteran presence will jumpstart the bullpen.

Save us! ... Daisuke?

And if not? If all is really lost, and the alarmists are right? Well, I'll be able to get into Fenway a lot more this summer... And you know what else? Last time the Red Sox missed the playoffs (2006, for the newbies), they won the World Series the following year. If that's the tradeoff, count me in.

Seriously, Daisuke?

In the least shocking news of Spring Training, Daisuke Matsuzaka's batting practice session as postponed yet again, though he did throw 19 pitches in the bullpen, according to Boston.com.

And so that old adage proves itself more than true once again: you can never have too much pitching. There were a lot of questions this offseason about what the Red Sox were going to do with six fully capable big-league starters, and speculation was wild, with suggestions ranging from sending the now 25-year-old Clay Buchholz to Pawtucket to start the season to relegating aging knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the bullpen.

Wakefield was confident that he would find his way into the rotation to open the year, answering a question about his place on the roster if everyone was healthy with a query of his own: "When does that ever happen?" You guys know by now how I feel about the wily veteran, who has played for the Sox for more than 75% of my life, so I'll spare you the gushing praise.

Love, love, LOVE.

However, I'm more than a little fed up with Daisuke at this point, and I suspect you all might have similar feelings. When he came to the club back in 2007, his arrival was documented with more enthusiasm than Nixon's first trip to China, and he did reasonably well that year, and exceeded expectation's in 2008, before suffering a lost season of sorts last year. Now, in an attempt to rectify the lack of communication of a year ago, he's reporting injury after injury, putting him weeks behind the other starters.


Don't get me wrong, if Matsuzaka is hurting, I want him to get the treatment he needs. However, if this is what we're getting for $100 million, I can't be the only one who's a little exasperated.

Sox-cars

Seeing as Hollywood's biggest awards who is on this evening, I thought Off the Monster would give out some awards of its own. So, without further review, here are the winners:

Best Actor in a Drama:
Daisuke Matsuzaka: In a continuation of the saga we've endured since he arrived, Matsuzaka has suffered a back injury of sorts, and is a few weeks behind the other pitchers. The drama really centers around the resolution of last year's situation: which Daisuke will we see? Do we get the 18 game winner of 2008, the washout of last season, or something in between? The suspense is killing me.

Best Supporting Actor:Jason Varitek: Though the Sox Captain is currently out of town dealing with a family issue, he has been dutifully assisting his successor, Victor Martinez, ever since pitching coach John Farrell assigned them to work together in camp. A lesser man might storm and rage at the manager, or take things out on the other players, but not Varitek. While I doubt he's thrilled to be supplanted, he hasn't said anything in public, and that's important.

Best Emerging Bromance:
Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro: Apparently the two are hard at work building up a rapport, though that's hardly difficult when Pedey is involved. I fully expect them to have matching t-shirts/facial hair/gerbils by the time Opening Day comes around.

Best Soundtrack:Tug Hulett (left in photo): After hitting a pinch-hit 3-run homerun in the seventh inning of a game against the Twins, the fans began to chant his name: "Tug! Tug! Tug!" When asked for comment, Hulett just said he wished to thank his mother for giving him a chantable name. I'm going to assume he would also thank his mother at an awards show.

Best Visual Effects:
Jose Iglesias: The Cuban defector is flashing the leather as promised, and according to coaches and teammates, has no shortage of enthusiasm. He's also had some good plays with the bat, although he'll start the year in the minors (probably Portland) to work some more on offense.

Best Foreign Film:
John Lackey: This one is a bit of a stretch, but let's be serious: to most of New England, Anaheim might as well be a foreign country. However, the new Sox pitcher is perfroming admirably, "sailing through" his outings thus far. When asked if he felt slighted by being third in the rotation, he seemed honest when he said it was fine with him: “If the roles were reversed, and I would have stayed in Anaheim and those guys had come over there, I would expect to still be going first. I think those guys have earned the right. They’ve won a lot of games for Tito, and to go in front of me, I’m alright with that.”

Best Picture:So freakin' adorable.

Hindsight is 20/20 (Pitching)

Earlier this month, I did an entry comparing the Bill James projections of position player performances to their actual numbers. As always, James was correct more often than not. I had a reader request after that post that I do one concerning our pitchers, and I agreed to - once the playoffs were over. Alas, I would much rather be typing up Red Sox ALCS preview, but this will have to do:

STARTERS

Josh Beckett:
Projection: 29 games, 189 IP, 21 HR, 176 SO, 3.57 ERA, 13-8 record
Actual: 32, 212.1, 25, 199, 3.86, 17-6

Despite the panic in Red Sox Nation over Josh's late-season performance, he actual over-achieved in virtually every category except HR and ERA, and those were close. While Lester may have overtaken him as the ace, he remains a top-tier pitcher.

Jon Lester:
Projection: 32 games, 212 IP, 19 HR, 168 SO, 4.02 ERA, 12-11 record
Actual: 32, 203.1, 20, 225, 3.41, 15-8

Lester emerged as a true top of the rotation guy this year, breaking the franchise single season strikeouts record for a southpaw, and becoming the dominating force he was projected to be. Obviously, be smashed James' SO, ERA, and W-L projections, but there was some worry that his innings from the 2008 campaign might adversely affect him... Clearly, that wasn't the case.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
Projection: 30 games, 184 IP, 17 HR, 174 SO, 3.58 ERA, 12-8 record
Actual: 12, 59.1, 10, 54, 5.76, 4-6

Obviously, James couldn't have predicted Daisuke's terrible offseason training regimen, which sent him to the WBC and then Spring Training completely out of shape and unable to perform. This, of course, resulted in a lost season from the Japanese enigma. However, the guy we saw in September was encouraging: here's hoping he actually does his workouts this winter.

Tim Wakefield:
Projection: 28 games, 160 IP, 21 HR, 107 SO, 3.91 ERA, 10-8 record
Actual: 21, 129.2, 12, 72, 4.58, 11-5

Knuckleballs are hard to predict on the field, and even more difficult to predict over the course of a season. Wake had an amazing first half, going to his first All-Star game, and let's not forget that gem he threw in April, which could be pointed to as an early turning point for the team. Though his second-half problems are becoming a habit, I'd like to see the team give him another year, especially for $4 million.

(Clay Buchholz was not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

RELIEVERS

Manny Delcarmen:
Projection: 71 games, 81 IP, 3.44 ERA, 6-3 record, 1 save
Actual: 64, 59.2, 4.53, 5-2, 0

MDC had a great start, lest you forget, but his second half slide was particularly bad, as he melted down in several important situations. People who would know (Curt Schilling, for one) often say that Delcarmen has some of the best stuff on the team, and could be a closer on many teams... It just doesn't look like he has the makeup - except maybe in the National League.

Hideki Okajima:
Projection: 61 games, 61 IP, 3.19 ERA, 5-2 record, 0 saves
Actual: 68, 61, 3.39, 6-0, 0

Oki was what we have come to expect: a quietly above-average pitcher who can get right- and left-handers out with nearly equal efficiency, who can come in to get a single out or go two innings. His consistency is a luxury that many teams don't have. Who's the throw-in now, Daisuke?

Takashi Saito:
Projection: 50 games, 52 IP, 3.09 ERA, 4-2 record, 20 saves
Actual: 56, 55.2, 2.43, 3-3, 2 saves

This one is more interesting: Saito's projections were based off what he would do if he were to stay the closer for the Dodgers. Clearly, when he came to Boston, his role changed: he didn't save games unless Paps wasn't available, and after Billy Wags came to town, forget it. However, his ERA was excellent for someone of his age and cost, and he exceeded expectations (numerically), even within the AL East.

Ramon Ramirez:
Projection:66 games, 67 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4-4 record, 1 save
Actual: 70, 69.2, 2.84, 7-4, 0

Again, Ramirez's projections were based on the assumption that he would be playing in Kansas City, yet he STILL exceeded all expectations across the board, even with the new pressures of a pennant race and a city that blows everything baseball-related out of proportions. Thanks, Coco!

Jonathan Papelbon:
Projection: 64 games, 71 IP, 2.04 ERA, 5-3 record, 41 saves
Actual: 66, 68, 1.85, 1-1, 38

Despite some shakiness in the first half, while he was "changing his mechanics," Paps had an extremely good year. His ERA was awesome, and despite the heart attacks, he converted his save opportunities more often than not. However, his most impressive stat is probably the combined 5,000 years he took off the lives of Sox fans everywhere.

(Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner are not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

Today's Match-up: Daisuke vs. CC

Last night was painful, on more than one level. For Jon Lester, the pain was physical, as he got absolutely nailed by a vicious liner off the bat of Melky Cabrera in the third inning. For fans, the pain was mental, with all of New England gasping in tandem as the newly announced Game 1 starter for the presumptive playoffs crumpled to the ground. Even when we heard that the X-Rays on Lester came back negative, most of us couldn't bring ourselves to care too much about the score following his exit (to an ovation from the surprisingly classy Yankee Stadium Crowd), as we were all too busy worrying about Red Sox Nation's prodigal son.

Tonight is a totally different matter. In the light of day, with more and more reports coming in that Lester might even be able to make his next start (scheduled for Thursday at Fenway Park), we turn some of our attention to this afternoon's match-up: the inimitable CC Sabathia, and the enigmatic Daisuke Matsuzaka.

First, for CC. Despite all the fat jokes that get made about him, Sabathia is the real deal. He leads the league in wins, and his ERA is no laughing matter. However, there is a silver lining: some of our hitters seem to fair relatively well against him. Kevin Youkilis, for example, hits .333 off of CC (he also hits Doc Halladay very well..weird.), and Papi hits him at a .304 clip. Strangely enough, Chris Woodward has pretty good numbers against CC (.273 BA).

Stripes aren't slimming, CC.

Daisuke, on the other hand has relatively good numbers against the Yanks. The only players on the team with significant at-bats against Daisuke that hit him well are Jorge Posada, (.500), and Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter, who both hit .333 off of him (Mr. Leigh Teixeira is 1-for-2). However, Matsuzaka is a totally different pitcher since coming off his extended DL time than we've seen. The guy that showed up for Daiuke's last two starts is more like the two-time WBC MVP than the frustrating 18-game winner (with only 5.7 innings per start, I'd like to award half of those wins to the bullpen) of yesteryear.

Unfortunately, we have to watch this intriguing match-up while listening to Tim McCarver ballwash Derek Jeter for nine innings. I hate FOX.

Obligatory Over-Reaction

I didn't think I would get to say it this season, but I would like to thank Daisuke Matsuzaka. Seriously, after all the drama in the Spring about the WBC, I'm simply thrilled he was able to contribute at all, let alone deliver a performance like that. I was one of those people calling for blood after our resident Japanese enigma started off 1-5... and to be honest, I wasn't too particular whose blood it was: Bud Selig's, Team Japan's, Daisuke's himself? Didn't matter, I just wanted retribution. I recall demanding (in my usual delusional manner) that the nation of Japan pay Matsuzaka's salary, since he quite clearly cared more about them than the team that gave him an opportunity to fulfill his dream of playing in the major leagues.

That all changed last night. I don't have the exact quote, but Matsuzaka acknowledged that he had been a "burden" on his teammates this season, and he wanted to make it up to them. Ummm, thanks? Obviously, I'm not about to absolve anyone of blame - I will be shocked if any significant Sox stars participate in the next WBC - but if #18 can go on throwing the ball with any semblance of the authority he was last night, I don't think anyone can stop our starting rotation.

Last night was a legitimate playoff preview, and, lest you forget, we were playing sans V-Mart and Youk, yet still managed to score enough runs to win despite the presence of Captain GIDP in the lineup. As Martinez was taking care of personal matters in Cleveland, Tito had no choice at the catching position, but I for one have no doubt that Tek would have been behind the plate regardless. After a three month hiatus, it's in the team's best interest to have a familiar face catching Daisuke (we all know Becks turns into jelly when his security blanket is taken away).

Looking past the impressive performance last night (small sample size, I know... but let me be excited!), I don't think any team in baseball can beat our playoff rotation, 1-4. Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Matsuzaka. Even if two of them perform at an average level, the other two have the potential to be so dominant that a five game series against us begins to look like an exercise in futility. I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but as a Red Sox fan, it is my god-given right to overreact several times during the season, and I've resisted (for the most part) thus far. That wasn't the hapless Royals we just shut down, it was the American League West leading Angels, who are still sitting pretty with an 86-58 record, six games up on the second-place Texas Rangers. However, from where I stand, the Red Sox are the team to beat right now.

Curtain Number One, Please.

Just a quick plea to Daisuke before he takes the mound tonight... I want to see this guy:Matsuzaka posted a 3-0 record with a 2.45 ERA in the World Baseball Classic, earning the tournament's MVP award for the second time (meaning, of course, that he is the only MVP that the WBC has seen thus far). Since then, Daisuke has morphed from the triumphant figure above into this guy:Since the end of the WBC, #18 has gone 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA... not to mention all of the strain he put on our bullpen early on (35 innings in 8 games).

He's back tonight, folks. And here's hoping he's more like the man behind curtain number one. I for one would be happy to wave the Japanese flag at Fenway if it means a win for the team enigma...

Five Minute Musings

(1) I LOVE the new MLB Network. Happy birthday to me, they've been showing the 2007 World Series all day. I also immensely enjoy the ads for their lineup of shows, especially the one for Prime 9. About halfway through the promo, they show a clip of Dustin Pedroia being caught stealing: as he dives into second base you see him mouth, "Safe," the umpire signals "out," and Pedroia yells "NO!" Keep in mind, that would have been the only time all year he was caught [20-for-21]. As discussed in this space before, failure is a foreign concept for #15. I am SO looking forward to watching him in a Sox uniform for the foreseeable future.

(2) While watching the aforementioned programming on the MLB Network [Game 2, to be exact], I noticed that Jason Varitek was inadvertently showing the fans what we would be getting for all of 2008. He struck out with the bases loaded to end the inning, grounded out weakly several times, and just all around choked in the clutch. Though Varitek's hitting game is clearly on the decline, I would not be altogether opposed to him returning for a year with an incentive-laden contract, especially if the Sox could acquire a young catcher to be his protege [Saltalamacchia from the Rangers, or Montero form the Diamondbacks].

(3) I can't wait to watch coverage of the World Baseball Classic. Unofficially, Sox players that will be participating include Daisuke Matsuzaka [Japan], Jason Bay [Canada], David Ortiz [the Dominican Republic], and Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis [United States]. Five players representing four different countries - how many MLB teams can make that claim? Also, five players is fewer [and therefore better] than the seven to nine that Terry Francona was estimating would participate. In case you forgot, Matsuzaka was the MVP of the inaugural Classic: hopefully he is more careful this time, yet just as effective.





(4) I couldn't be happier about Kevin Youkilis' new contract. The right side of the Red Sox infield is arguably now younger, cheaper, and more productive than any other Major League team. Youkilis and Pedroia are premier players at their positions. They have each won a Gold Glove, and finished in the top 3 of the MVP voting this year. Not to mention the fact that they are both home grown players. As Youkilis said during his press conference, the Sox minor league system was, until recently, decidedly underwhelming. Now, an impact player comes up just about every year. In 2006 Papelbon made a sensation of himself, in 2007 it was Pedroia and Ellsbury who tore up the postseason, and this year Jed Lowrie came up to replace the injured Julio Lugo and was a definite upgrade, despite a broken bone in his wrist. I could get used to this.

(5) Nick Cafardo has an interesting thought in his Boston Globe Baseball Notes column today. "This off season, the Yankees went wild with the signings of Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett. Sabathia's postseason history is poor - 2-3. 7.92 ERA." This is potentially because he practically carries his team all season: in 2007, he pitched for 240 innings; this year, he pitched 253. If he has to shoulder that kind of load again, it might spell trouble for New York, but with A.J. Burnett's injury history, such an occurrence would not be out of the question. On a related note, it might be prudent for the Sox to limit Jon Lester's innings this season after he played for a career high 210 last year.