2014 Bill James Projections - Mike Carp

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2011: 79 games, .276 BA, .326 OBO, .466 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2012 projection: 79 games, .258 BA, .327 OBP, .442 SLG, 11 HR, 40 RBI
2012: 59 games, .213 BA, .312 OBP, .341 SLG, 5 HR, 20 RBI
2013 projection: 61 games, .252 BA, .329 OBP, .410 SLG, 5 HR, 19 RBI
2013: 86 games, .296 BA, .362 OBP, .523 SLG, 9 HR, 43 RBI
2014 projection: 126 games, .257 BA, .330 OBP, .436 SLG, 13 HR, 49 RBI

Oh, the life of a fourth outfielder/backup first baseman. Mike Carp played the most games in his career last season, and Bill James and his crew are projecting him to blow out that personal best in 2014.

Carp was an important role player last season - he played in just over half the regular season games, and had just eight plate appearances in the postseason (where he had exactly zero hits, but it was a light hitting postseason for everyone not named Ortiz).

Bill James' projection for playing time could be curtailed if the Grady Sizemore experiment pans out, but Carp's outfield versatility should keep him around.

I often catch myself thinking of Mike Carp as much older than he is: he won't be 28 until almost July, and because of his age and limited playing time, he's under team control for a few more years.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jake Peavy

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2011: 7-7, 18 starts, 111.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 24 BB, 95 SO
2012 projection: 8-5, 19 starts, 123 IP, 3.51 ERA, 29 BB, 121 SO
2012: 11-12, 32 starts, 219 IP, 3.37 ERA, 49 BB, 194 SO
2013 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 211 IP, 3.20 ERA, 47 BB, 200 SO
2013: 12-5, 23 starts, 144.2 IP, 4.17 ERA, 36 BB, 121 SO
2014 projection: 11-7, 25 starts, 163 IP, 3.31 ERA, 39 BB, 150 SO

It's been a long time since Jake Peavy won his Cy Young Award, and he hasn't been able to come close to matching the dominance of that 2007 season since. Nevertheless, he's a solid starter, and despite the howling from some corners of Red Sox Nation when we sent Jose Iglesias to Detroit in the three team deal that brought us Peavy, his short time in Boston has been successful.

There always seem to be murmurs of a trade surrounding Jake Peavy, and this year has been no different. The Red Sox have six legitimate starters on their roster right now, so somebody is likely to be the odd man out, and Peavy could be a free agent as soon as next season. (His contract includes a $15 million player option, but it will only vest if he reaches certain unlikely milestones.)

Assuming Peavy sticks around through 2014, and he lives up to Bill James' projections, he'll be a reliable starter. Whether he's actually worth the $14.5 million he'll be paid is another question entirely, but I'd hazard a guess that the Red Sox ownership is perfectly content to pay him for his contributions for the 2013 World Championship - I know I am.

Padded caps for pitchers?

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According to a story on ESPN, Major League Baseball has approved the use of padded caps for pitchers starting this season. Considering the sheer magnitude of innings pitched in a single season, line drives that hit the pitcher in the head are very rare - but incredibly scary whenever they happen.

The protection would come in the form of foam and plastic padding inside pitchers' caps, adding about half an inch to each side of the cap, and an inch on the front. ESPN has a video up on their site showing a few major league pitchers trying on the caps, and from a distance it would be difficult for fans to tell the difference.

The caps would be optional at first, but widespread adoption would likely lead to a new rule in years to come. Major League Baseball certainly isn't dealing with the same concussion PR-nightmare the NFL is, but they're still taking steps to allow their players to protect themselves.

Among the players interviewed, Yankees lefty CC Sabathia said he would wear the new cap, even though he's never been hit in the head in his illustrious twelve year career."You can never be too safe," he said. "Especially with the way guys are hitting the ball these days."

No word yet on whether any Red Sox pitchers will decide to take advantage of the new protective headgear - but I would guess the front office would support such a protection for their investment.

David Ross is better than you

Pitchers and catchers will report to Fort Myers in less than a month - which means today is the perfect time to remind you all of the hilarity and perfection of David Ross.

Every year, the Red Sox release a video of photo day outtakes: when players are asked to read promos on camera instead of playing baseball, they tend to struggle. The results are typically as endearing as they are ridiculous.

But the best part of last year's outtakes video isn't Dustin Pedroia describing a poster of himself as "creepy," or David Ortiz acting as Shane Victorino's personal stylist - it's David Ross giving fans his daily forecast. You'll have to watch all the way to the end to see Ross's meteorological expertise, but the whole thing is definitely worth it.

2014 Bill James Projections - Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster during 2013 Spring Training
 Source

2011: 10-14, 34 starts, 202.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 82 BB, 191 SO

2012 projection: 11-12, 32 starts, 203 IP, 3.95 ERA, 80 BB, 185 SO2012: 12-8, 28 starts, 173 IP, 3.38 ERA, 52 BB, 153 SO2013 projection: 11-10, 31 starts, 190 IP, 3.74 ERA, 66 BB, 172 SO
2013: 8-9, 29 starts, 171.1 IP, 4.57 ERA, 79 BB, 157 SO
2014 projection: 9-10, 29 starts, 168 IP, 4.02 ERA, 68 BB, 152 SO

Even though Ryan Dempster didn't live up to his 2013 projections, he deserves credit for one very important part of the 2013 World Championship run: he was one of the few Red Sox to come in to Spring Training with his facial hair already established.

All joking aside, Dempster was solid for the Red Sox in 2013. Sure, he had his share of early hooks, but he took the ball every five days, and tossed 171 innings, no small feat for a thirty-six-year-old who underwent Tommy John surgery over a decade ago.

Bill James and his team project some modest gains for Dempster in 2014, and his BB/SO rate has always been pretty fantastic. As a fourth or fifth starter, Dempster should more than satisfactory.

2014 Bill James Projections - Dustin Pedroia

©Kayla Chadwick 2012

2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI

Dustin Pedroia has been remarkably consistent throughout his career - both from day to day, and season to season. Pedroia has to be practically begged to take a day off, even when injured. Sometimes the bumps and bruises collected by Pedroia are unnecessary: indeed, he tore the ligament in his left thumb on this season's Opening Day, sliding headfirst into first base while the Red Sox had a comfortable lead over the Yankees.

But if he played it safe and sane, he just wouldn't be the Dustin Pedroia Red Sox fans know and love. Though the injury undoubtedly affected his power numbers in 2013, it's obvious that having Pedroia at 90% is far superior to trying to fill his spot with anyone else.

Pedroia has had surgery to repair his thumb, and reportedly should be ready for Opening Day. Barring any sort of injury (something you can never really rule out with Pedroia's style of play), I would hazard a guess that the 2014 projections will be relatively accurate.

SoxCast in Syracuse: Episode 10

Grady Sizemore to the Red Sox

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Apparently Red Sox Nation has healed enough since 2003 to let a man named Grady back into its good graces (the three World Series titles since then can't hurt). The former Cleveland center fielder hasn't played in the majors since 2011, but for the first few years of his career he was pretty durable.

Then in 2008, the injuries started. First it was a minor thing - a sprained ankle - but the very next season Sizemore had to skip the World Baseball Classic because of a groin issue, then needed elbow surgery and finally hernia surgery.

But the troubles weren't over, as Sizemore would be able to play just 33 games in 2010 before leaving the team to get knee surgery. In 2011, he played 71 games, missing time to knee problems and additional surgery on the old sports hernia.

Sizemore signed with Cleveland for $5 million in 2012, but needed back surgery during Spring Training, and didn't make it to the field all year. Last year, Sizemore had no takers for his services, despite remaining a free agent all season.

The Red Sox have now signed the injury-prone lefty to an incentive-laden one year contract worth a minimum of $750,000. As a veteran and former Gold Glove center fielder, Sizemore should be a good person to have around as the Sox try to get Jackie Bradley Jr. comfortable in the full time role. Hopefully the significant time away from the everyday grind of baseball will have returned Sizemore's body to a modicum of health.

Yankees: If at first you don't succeed, buy, buy again!

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The Yankees don't handle mediocrity well. During the 2008-2009 offseason, after they missed the playoffs for the first time since 1995, the Yankees went on a spending spree, handing out nearly half a billion dollars to three players on long term contracts:

CC Sabathia: 27 years old, seven years, $161 million
A.J. Burnett: 32 years old, five years, $82.5 million
Mark Teixeira: 29 years old, eight years, $180 million
Total: $423.5 million

Of those three players, only Sabathia has been worth the money and commitment. Burnett only played in New York for three seasons, and the injury-plagued Teixeira has only played 138 games over the last two seasons, with three years remaining on his contract.

Obviously, the "spend-now, worry later" philosophy paid off immediately, as the Yankees won the World Series in 2009 - but now they're dealing with an aging roster (last year the team's average age was 31.8 years old) that missed the playoffs once again, so they're back to their high buying ways this offseason:

Brian McCann: 29 years old, five years, $85 million
Carlos Beltran: 36 years old, three years, $45 million
Jacoby Ellsbury: 30 years old, seven years, $153 million
Masahiro Tanaka: 25 years old, seven years, $155 million (plus $20 million to Tanaka's former team)
Total: $458 million

Remember when the Yankees were going to spend sparingly and get themselves under the luxury tax threshold? Even with the mulligan they're getting on Alex Rodriguez's monster contract, that is absolutely not going to happen.

But it doesn't matter. The Yankees play in the middle of the biggest media market in the country, and the money they get from cable and radio rights ensures that they'll be able to spend boatloads of money on any players they want for the foreseeable future.

The Yankees could pay A-Rod this year and not break a sweat. It's one of the most ridiculous parts of MLB's no salary cap policy: teams in cities like New York, LA, Chicago, and Boston will always have more money to spend than those in Kansas City, Phoenix, or Milwaukee. 

It allows big market teams to take risks on long term deals if they want to, without fearing for financial ruin. They can outbid everyone else on short term deals and draft picks, since they can afford to prioritize roster flexibility over payroll. It's a testament to the sport that the league has had even a modicum of parity over the last decade.

As a Red Sox fan, I (mostly) benefit from this, so I don't have too many complaints - but as a baseball fan, the absurdity of the status quo is frustrating.

Masahiro Tanaka to the Yankees

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It was almost inevitable. Do you remember what happened last time the Yankees missed the playoffs, in 2008? By those standards, this season's shopping spree is downright blasé.

So Masahiro Tanaka, the pride of the Rakuten Golden Eagles, will pick up and move from Japan to New York - after signing one of the most lucrative contracts ever for a pitcher. This contract is par for the course for the Yankees, despite the relative unknown of how Tanaka will do against major league talent.

Currently twenty-five years old, Tanaka will be thirty-two (and ostensibly in his baseball prime) when the seven year deal runs out (or twenty-nine after the fourth year opt-out). If Tanaka remains a top of the rotation guy, the $22 million average annual value is legitimate.

But that's a pretty big "if." We've all heard the hype: Tanaka went 24-0 last season with an incredible 1.27 ERA in the Japanese League. He's averaged 25 starts per season, with a 2.30 ERA in since 2007. But he's pitched a total of 1315 innings since he started playing professionally when he was just eighteen years old.

We know that it's basically impossible to know how Japanese players will perform when entering Major League Baseball, and Red Sox fans are intimately familiar with the frustration that can happen when the honeymoon period is over.

But as tedious as it was to watch Daisuke Matsuzaka by the end of his deal, he went 33-15 during the first two years of his deal and helped the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series. Matsuzaka clashed with Red Sox trainers and coaches about workouts and workloads - and it didn't end well.

Tanaka is just a year younger than Matsuzaka was when the latter came to Boston, and has pitched just about 80 fewer innings. The two have a similar build. Based on experiences with Matsuzaka (and the similarities between the two pitchers), I would imagine Tanaka will be a great performer for the Yankees for the first few years of his contract, but their training staff should be prepared to keep a close eye on him.

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter if this contract is a success or a flop for New York: as we saw this offseason (and as we've seen many times before), their front office motto might as well be, "If at first you don't succeed, buy, buy again."

2014 Bill James Projections - Koji Uehara

Source

2011: 2-3, 65 games, 0 saves, 65 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9 BB, 85 SO
2012 projection: 5-2, 62 games, 0 saves, 58 IP, 2.64 ERA, 8 BB, 55 SO
2012: 0-0, 37 games, 1 save, 36 IP, 1.75 ERA, 3 BB, 43 SO
2013 projection: 3-1, 43 games, 4 saves, 40 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6 BB, 39 SO
2013: 4-1, 73 games, 21 saves, 74.1 IP, 1.09 ERA, 9 BB, 101 SO
2014 projection: 6-2, 69 games, 23 saves, 75 IP, 1.80 ERA, 9 BB, 82 SO

I think it's fair to forgive the total lack of accuracy from The Bill James Handbook's 2013 projections for Koji Uehara. After all, heading into the season, Uehara wasn't even on the radar as a possible closer, as we had Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey seemingly ready to go.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Red Sox would not have won the World Series without Uehara in the closer spot. Beyond the absolutely lights out season he had numbers-wise, Uehara was one of many spiritual centers of the team, earning the nickname "High Five City" by midsummer.

I know I can't be the only Red Sox fan who was intimidated by Uehara's post-save celebration antics: every time he charged triumphantly off the mound I was sure he was going to fracture his hand with the ferocity of his high fives.

But Uehara remained safe, sound, and absolutely dominant to the very end. His ERA was just over a run, and his BB/SO ratio was unreal (though to be fair, that's been consistent throughout his career).

It's possible that Uehara might have a bit of a backslide in 2014: he tossed a lot of innings last year, and at his age that might wear on him. However, it's obvious that trying to predict the greatness that is Koji Uehara is futile, so I'll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

The Showdown

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This afternoon's game between the Patriots and the Broncos has been broken down and analyzed and predicted so many times over that it's become tedious.

It's Brady v. Manning, winner gets an all-expense paid trip to the Superbowl - and even as a Patriots fan, I've heard every point of analysis so many times that I change the channel the minute I see anything related to this game on the SportsCenter rundown.

There's nothing left to say about this game that hasn't been repeated ad nauseam all week - but luckily kickoff is just hours away.

2014 Bill James Projections - Clay Buchholz

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2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO
2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO
2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO
2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

Clay Buchholz's biggest enemy in his career has been his own body. It seems like he's constantly fighting to stay healthy and on the field - and when he does, the results are fantastic.

In the incredible afterglow of the 2013 season, it's easy to let clay Buchholz's first half dominance slip under the radar, but in the early part of the season he was absolutely filthy. Indeed, Buchholz was so good that he was accused of cheating. 

Given the time Buchholz missed, it's difficult to know whether Bill James and his team underestimated him in their projections, but it seems unlikely that he would have lost an additional ten games - with no extra wins - had he stayed healthy.

In that vein, I think Buchholz will outdo James' 2014 projections - assuming he manages to stay on the mound.

The Outlandish Confidence of Scott Boras

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We're just about a month away from Spring training, and World Champion shortstop Stephen Drew is still without a home for the 2014 season. Superagent (and possible devil incarnate) Scott Boras is still confident about Drew's prospects, claiming he's spoken to four or five teams about contract possibilities.

Of course, one of those teams is the Red Sox - after extending Drew a one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer, the Sox have been standing firm. They don't think Drew is a multi-year investment at this point in his career. His defense is solid, but that value is somewhat tempered by how easily his bat was silenced during the playoffs.

I don't know which teams need a soon-to-be 31-year-old shortstop for multiple years, but if (as I suspect) Boras is bluffing about the level of interest from other teams, the Red Sox clearly hold all the cards.

If they can get Drew back for a single year, it would be a great way to ease Xander Bogaerts into the full time starting role. If Drew signs elsewhere, the Red Sox seem pretty comfortable with giving Bogaerts the starting job outright, and they get a draft pick.

Personally, as a proud member of the #DrewCrew, I'd like to see Drew back - but I won't shed any tears for him if that doesn't happen.

A-Rod, MLBPA, release statements

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Here's the full text of the statement Alex Rodriguez and his legal team has released regarding the suspension decision, via the player's Facebook page:

“The number of games sadly comes as no surprise, as the deck has been stacked against me from day one. This is one man’s decision, that was not put before a fair and impartial jury, does not involve me having failed a single drug test, is at odds with the facts and is inconsistent with the terms of the Joint Drug Agreement and the Basic Agreement, and relies on testimony and documents that would never have been allowed in any court in the United States because they are false and wholly unreliable. This injustice is MLB’s first step toward abolishing guaranteed contracts in the 2016 bargaining round, instituting lifetime bans for single violations of drug policy, and further insulating its corrupt investigative program from any variety defense by accused players, or any variety of objective review.

I have been clear that I did not use performance enhancing substances as alleged in the notice of discipline, or violate the Basic Agreement or the Joint Drug Agreement in any manner, and in order to prove it I will take this fight to federal court. I am confident that when a Federal Judge reviews the entirety of the record, the hearsay testimony of a criminal whose own records demonstrate that he dealt drugs to minors, and the lack of credible evidence put forth by MLB, that the judge will find that the panel blatantly disregarded the law and facts, and will overturn the suspension. No player should have to go through what I have been dealing with, and I am exhausting all options to ensure not only that I get justice, but that players’ contracts and rights are protected through the next round of bargaining, and that the MLB investigation and arbitration process cannot be used against others in the future the way it is currently being used to unjustly punish me.

I will continue to work hard to get back on the field and help the Yankees achieve the ultimate goal of winning another championship. I want to sincerely thank my family, all of my friends, and of course the fans and many of my fellow MLB players for the incredible support I received throughout this entire ordeal."

The MLB Player's Association has also released a statement, disagreeing with the decision, but not supporting any further legal action:

"The MLBPA strongly disagrees with the award issued today in the grievance of Alex Rodriguez, even despite the arbitration panel's decision to reduce the duration of Mr. Rodriguez's unprecedented 211-game suspension. We recognize that a final and binding decision has been reached, however, and we respect the collectively bargained arbitration process which led to the decision. In accordance with the confidentiality provisions of the JDA, the Association will make no further comment regarding the decision."

Alex Rodriguez suspended for 2014 season

Source

It's official. The arbitrator has decided, and Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez will miss the entire 2014 baseball season with a suspension of 162 games, plus any playoff games the Yankees might qualify for.

Technically this is a reduction in the original punishment, as Major League Baseball had initially suspended Rodriguez for 211 games. Either way this could mean the end of his career, as he'll be forty years old before he's allowed to take the field again, and who's to say the Yankees will want their lineup anchored by a middle-aged scandal-ridden pariah.

For anyone who isn't a Yankees fan, this is a boon, as the Yankees still have to find a third baseman for the upcoming season, and the market is thin this late in the offseason.

Of course, Rodriguez and his legal team aren't ready to accept this decision - they have released a statement saying they will be taking the case to a federal court.

Doc Rivers predicts Pats victory

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Though former Celtics coach Doc Rivers departed Boston for sunny LA and the Clippers this season, he still has the collective back of New England sports fans.

In the press conference after the Clippers demolished the Lakers last night, Rivers went a bit off topic and made some predictions about this weekend's slate of NFL playoff games - and went against the conventional narrative.

While most of the talking heads in the sports world have been gleefully predicting a Patriots loss in tonight's showdown against the Colts, Doc Rivers had a different take.

"I think the Patriots are going to win, and they're going to win big," Rivers said with a grin.

Of course, that assessment could have less to do with lingering affection for Boston, and more to do with factors like poor weather favoring the Pats, and history favoring the home team when these two meet in the playoffs.

Either way, it's nice to have the confidence and support of someone like Doc Rivers heading into tonight's game.

Sanctimonious nonsense from Hall of Fame voters

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With all the discussion and controversy surrounding the Hall of Fame voting this year, I'd like to propose a new rule: any BBWAA members who were covering the game from the late 1980s to the early 2000s who didn't make a fuss about rampant steroid use while they were witnessing it in clubhouses across the game are no longer allowed to make a fuss about it in their Hall of Fame voting rationale.

I said the same thing this time last year, but it is unbelievable to me that writers who were complicit in the longevity of the Steroid Era through their silence are so incredibly sanctimonious about their votes now that those players are appearing on the ballot.

There's a lot of self-satisfied talk about how the Hall isn't just an honor for players who were the best on the field, but a place for those who were also the most moral and sportsmanlike. It's an admirable wish, but if you're seriously a baseball writer who thinks a violent and racist (albeit incredibly talented) player like Ty Cobb represents the moral and sportsmanlike, even in the context of his era, you should probably take a refresher course in basic baseball history.

Of course, Ty Cobb is an extreme example, but if he was "moral and sportsmanlike" enough to be revered and remembered, who are the BBWAA members to say that players they personally suspect of drug use, or worse, those who just had the misfortune of playing during that time, are unworthy?

It's ridiculous. I don't need baseball writers to teach me about morality, thanks all the same. I want to see the best of the era in the Hall of Fame, and if that includes PED users (and it most certainly does), so be it. Why should some players get the benefit of the doubt, while some get tainted by the brush of their peers?

If a player dominated during his era, if his numbers set him apart from the rest, if he faced the best of his time and beat them, he belongs in the Hall of Fame. Fans understand the nuance of the era, so maybe the BBWAA voters can save the moralizing lectures for their children.

2014 Bill James Projections - John Lackey

Source

2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA, 72 BB, 156 SO

2011 projection: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
2011: 12-12, 28 starts, 160 IP, 6.41 ERA, 56 BB, 108 SO
2012: [No stats; missed entire year recovering from Tommy John surgery]
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 209 IP, 4.04 ERA, 59 BB, 163 SO
2014: 10-13, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 40 BB, 161 SO

2014 projections: 11-11, 29 starts, 199 IP, 3.93 ERA, 46 BB, 155 SO

This past season was exceptionally redemptive for John Lackey. He started 2013 as one of Boston's most hated athletes and transformed himself into a pitcher Red Sox fans trusted in the biggest situations. 

John Lackey handily outpitched FOX Sports' darling Justin Verlander in the ALCS, then won the clinching game of the World Series, and he did it with very little fanfare.

When Lackey came off the mound in Toronto last April clutching his arm, no one could have predicted how his season would end: making history by becoming the first starting pitcher in major league history to win the clinching game of the World Series with two separate teams.

Even with the egregious lack of run support this season, Lackey's numbers were impressive, and James and his team predict another productive season from the once-reviled right hander.

Some comic relief for a Sunday night...

via WGBH News

It's no secret that Dustin Pedroia isn't the tallest ballplayer in the world. Indeed, he's only the tallest person in his own family by a few centimeters.

But WGBH has decided to refer to Pedroia's height in a novel new way: by measuring the region's recent influx of snow based on the second baseman's stature. Personally, I've never been so interested in the weather.

2014 Bill James Projections - Will Middlebrooks

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

2013: 94 games, .227 BA, .271 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 49 RBI

2014 projection: 145 games, .266 BA, .310 OBP, .490 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

After a promising 2012, Will Middlebrooks endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2013. It started with a demotion to Triple-A in April, and even after his return to the big club for the playoffs, he had lost his spot to Xander Bogaerts by the end of the run.

Clearly Bill James and co. don't expect that trend to continue in 2014, as they have him down to join the 30HR/100RBI club next season. Of course, Middlebrooks' position is currently in flux, as the Red Sox still have interest in Stephen Drew, and a roster with Drew, Bogaerts, and Middlebrooks would likely make Middlebrooks the odd man out - at least for a while.

Still, Middlebrooks' upside is much too high for the Red Sox to squander his talent by making him ride the bench too often - indeed, his potential is one of the greatest points of leverage the Red Sox have in their pursuit of a team-friendly contract with Drew.