Power in Unexpected Places

Raise your hand if you thought the first two Red Sox home runs of 2018 would come from Eduardo Núñez and Xander Bogaerts.

Now put down your hand, you liar.

This shouldn't be construed as anything against either Núñez or Bogaerts: they're both extremely talented, fun players.

But if we're being honest, neither is known primarily for his power. Both players had their career highs in homers back in 2016, Núñez with 16, and Bogaerts with 21. Decent numbers, sure, but not mind-blowing, and they average 11 and 13 HRs per year, respectively.

If you're the betting type, you likely would have put your money on new slugger JD Martinez, or maybe one of the youngsters like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, or Rafael Devers (who, after all, hit the final home run of 2017 for the Red Sox).

But baseball's funny that way. The first Red Sox home run of 2018 was Núñez's, in spectacular inside-the-park fashion, and the first traditional round-tripper went to Bogaerts, who is on an absolute tear to begin the season. 

If the Red Sox can keep getting this kind of production from their middle infield, 2018 should shape up to be a pretty great season.

Opening Day was Good, Actually

Regardless of outcome, I think we can all agree that Opening Day should be a holiday. Honestly, even more so when you have to swallow spirit-crushing late-innings losses like the Red Sox coughed up yesterday afternoon.

But with the first loss of the season behind us, we can all relax into baseball's wonderful routine: we get to watch our team play 162 times over the course of six months - and then hopefully reset the standings and watch them compete well into October.

Baseball fans are truly #blessed.

I won't waste your time opining about the bullpen: we all know the Red Sox need to improve in that area. But there is one small silver lining. Remember the nightmare that was Matt Barnes on the road last season?

Home or Away -- Game-Level

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Away	2	2	.500	5.28	33	30.2	23	18	18	4	20	29	1.402

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 3/30/2018.

Barnes tossed a completely clean inning yesterday! At the Trop! Hopefully he's turned a corner, and the rest of his bullpen cohort can learn from his example.

Bullpen aside, Chris Sale was as spectacular as ever. Six shutout innings, nine strikeouts - Sale was betrayed by his own bullpen, but I'm sure he doesn't look at it that way. 

A throwback who berates himself for anything less than a complete game, Sale is likely back in the weight room, vowing to go the distance in his next outing, or at the very least, hand the ball directly to Craig Kimbrel.

In other positive news, Eduardo Núñez's knee looks like it's just fine, which is a huge relief after we watched him be carried off the field in Houston last October, and then saw him spend spring training treating the questionable joint with kid gloves.

Lastly, I think a lot of us came into the season underestimating what kind of factor Xander Bogaerts is going to be at the plate. An injury last season saw him underperforming, but there was no sign of that yesterday, as the shortstop clubbed two doubles against Chris Archer (whose line yesterday certainly doesn't reflect his skill).

The Red Sox are going to be fine. The bullpen will get better - and if they don't, I'm fully confident that Dave Dombrowski will make the moves necessary to avoid another catastrophic meltdown like the one we witnessed yesterday.

The beautiful thing about baseball is that you never have time to dwell on a loss, even one as gruesome as yesterday's. David Price takes the mound today, and I fully expect him to set the tone for what should be a huge year for him - and for the Red Sox.

Buckle in, fellow Red Sox fans: the season's just begun, and we've got (at least) 161 more games to watch. What could be better?

2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

Source

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
2015: 156 games, .320 BA, .355 OBP, .421 SLG, 7 HR, 81 RBI
2016 projection: 152 games, .298 BA, .348 OBP, .425 SLG, 12 HR, 76 RBI

Without Xander Bogaerts and his similarly young and talented teammates (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., etc.), the entirety of 2015 would have been spent wallowing in despair over the absolute joke of a pitching staff and the injury bug that seemed to keep every veteran player off the field for extended periods of time.

Bogaerts really came into his own in 2015 - and with a monopoly on the shortstop position, he performed at the plate. It seems that some predictability on the defensive side of things helped his consistency on offense. Bogaerts won his first ever Silver Slugger award in 2015, after a season that saw him top several offensive categories among AL shortstops.

Bill James and his team project another good year at the plate for Bogaerts in 2016, with perhaps just a smidge more power. As always, the single best thing about Xander Bogaerts is his age: he won't be a free agent until 2020 - but don't get too attached, as he's represented by Scott Boras.

For the foreseeable future, though, Bogaerts will don a Red Sox uniform, and I for one plan to enjoy each and every minute.

2015 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB

The rumors would crop up almost every year between the time Hanley Ramirez went to Florida and this offseason: the one-time Red Sox prospect was coming back. It now seems there's an actual fire under all that smoke, and Ramirez, now a bona fide star, is on his way back to Boston.

But what can we expect from Ramirez this season? It's unclear where the soon-to-be 31-year-old will even play: the Red Sox seem content with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop (and pulling him from his natural position seemed to have consequences this season), and are reportedly among the finalists to sign free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

There's talk that Ramirez could end up in left field if the Red Sox are the winners of the Sandoval sweepstakes, but he's never played a major league game in the outfield in his ten years of service time. One thing remains clear: no matter what we get from Ramirez defensively, his bat will add some much-needed pop to a Red Sox lineup that in 2014 could be accurately described as "lethargic."

Ramirez's average has hovered around .300 his entire career, and his power numbers are certainly well above what you would expect from a shortstop in the post-steroid era. Over the past few years, Bill James and his team have done a reliable job either underestimating Ramirez slightly, or hitting their projections almost exactly on the nose.

If Ramirez can live up to what James has projected for his 2015 in the midst of trading one big market (LA) for another (the admittedly much more baseball-crazed Boston), we should have an exciting season on our hands.

Welcome back to Boston, Hanley Ramirez: the expectations will be higher here, but the fans will show up before the third inning and stay until the end, and the reward, should you lead us all the way, will be that much sweeter.

2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

Source

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI

Xander Bogaerts didn't quite live up to his 2014 projections, but it was well within the margin of error, and well within an acceptable range for a major league shortstop.

Not to mention, Bogaerts is still just 22 - there's plenty of time for him to develop into the offensive and defensive wunderkind we're all hoping for - unlike some people I can think of (ahem, Clay Buchholz).

Once again in 2014, Bogaerts was asked to shift around the infield in deference to Stephen Drew, though he was allowed to return to his natural position at shortstop when Drew headed south at the trade deadline. 

The best two months of Bogaerts' 2014? May, before Drew came to town, and September, once Bogaerts readjusted to being a full time shortstop. Those also happen to be the two months in which he had the most plate appearances.

As a guy who seemingly performs best when he's playing in the field regularly, Xander Bogaerts will probably never be able to make a career transition to DH. But as the shortstop position should be his alone for 2015, it should be safe to expect improvement.

Lackey deals in Red Sox win

Photo by Matt West

What a difference a week makes - it hasn't been that long since we were crediting the bullpen with being the most reliable part of the Red Sox pitching staff. But last night the starter led the way, as John Lackey tossed eight innings, scattering six hits, no walks, and giving up just two runs.

Lackey departed with a sizable lead, and Edward Mujica came on for the ninth with a five run cushion - but he couldn't nail it down. Mujica managed to get two outs, but it was messy, as he allowed a leadoff double to James Loney, and a walk to Wil Myers - both of whom scored on a single and a throwing error by Xander Bogaerts.

At that point, John Farrell had apparently seen enough, and called out to the bullpen for Koji Uehara, who was able to close out the game on three pitches, striking out Ben Zobrist. How is it possible that Mujica couldn't pitch a single inning with a five run lead?

Luckily for the Red Sox, they now have the roster they had hoped to start the season with, meaning that the bullpen should have more leads to protect in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully Mujica can straighten himself out, because Uehara is thirty-nine years old, and even his seemingly magic arm needs regular rest.

2014 Bill James Projections - Will Middlebrooks

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

2013: 94 games, .227 BA, .271 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 49 RBI

2014 projection: 145 games, .266 BA, .310 OBP, .490 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

After a promising 2012, Will Middlebrooks endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2013. It started with a demotion to Triple-A in April, and even after his return to the big club for the playoffs, he had lost his spot to Xander Bogaerts by the end of the run.

Clearly Bill James and co. don't expect that trend to continue in 2014, as they have him down to join the 30HR/100RBI club next season. Of course, Middlebrooks' position is currently in flux, as the Red Sox still have interest in Stephen Drew, and a roster with Drew, Bogaerts, and Middlebrooks would likely make Middlebrooks the odd man out - at least for a while.

Still, Middlebrooks' upside is much too high for the Red Sox to squander his talent by making him ride the bench too often - indeed, his potential is one of the greatest points of leverage the Red Sox have in their pursuit of a team-friendly contract with Drew.

2014 Bill James Projections - Xander Bogaerts

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI

Clearly when James and his team calculated these projections, they worked under the assumption that Bogaerts would be the everyday shortstop. Even if Stephen Drew comes back for 2014, I expect Bogaerts to play most days - whether he spends the majority of time at shortstop or third base depends on Drew's status and the early-season performance of Will Middlebrooks.

We only got a glimpse of Bogaerts last season. A late season call-up, Bogaerts slid effortlessly into the third base position during the postseason when Middlebrooks wasn't getting it done (Drew couldn't hit to save his life, either, but he was spared the bench because of his excellent defense).

This flexibility bodes well, as Bogaerts is just twenty years old, and already big for a shortstop - if he fills out more in the coming years, it's good to know he can flash the leather at the hot corner, too.

We've been hearing about Bogaerts' prowess with the glove for years - but he's also slated to become a bona fide power threat at the plate. As clichéd as it sounds, the sky is the limit for Xander Bogaerts going forward.

Shortstop of the future - for somebody else

I'll admit it: I was one of those people howling in rage and sadness when I heard Jose Iglesias was getting shipped off to the Tigers. I didn't want Peavy, and I didn't want to lose Iglesias. Late last night, I didn't immediately see the wisdom of Ben Cherington's latest move.

Though I am still somewhat sad to see Iglesias go, I'm on board with the Jake Peavy trade. By all accounts, Peavy is a fighter. He's competitive and talented, and when he can keep himself healthy, he's a guy you want on your side.

As the inimitable Chad Finn put it, between Peavy and Clay Buchholz, we're getting a "heck of a pitcher for 32 starts."

But despite my acceptance (and even happiness) with having Peavy join the Red Sox, I'm sorry to see Iglesias go. I know his batting average has been falling faster than investment in his new home city. I know that same average is partly due to flukey infield hits. I know Xander Bogaerts is waiting in the wings. None of that changes how I feel about seeing Iglesias go - emotions don't care about logic.

Iglesias is fun to watch, and he'll continue to be fun to watch, but spectacular plays are never as great when they're made by a guy in another team's uniform. Jose Iglesias is going to win a Gold Glove someday, and it's going to be for some other team, in some other city. Is it possible to feel nostalgic for something that hasn't even happened yet?