Monday, January 20, 2014

2014 Bill James Projections - Koji Uehara

2011: 2-3, 65 games, 0 saves, 65 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9 BB, 85 SO
2012 projection: 5-2, 62 games, 0 saves, 58 IP, 2.64 ERA, 8 BB, 55 SO
2012: 0-0, 37 games, 1 save, 36 IP, 1.75 ERA, 3 BB, 43 SO
2013 projection: 3-1, 43 games, 4 saves, 40 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6 BB, 39 SO
2013: 4-1, 73 games, 21 saves, 74.1 IP, 1.09 ERA, 9 BB, 101 SO
2014 projection: 6-2, 69 games, 23 saves, 75 IP, 1.80 ERA, 9 BB, 82 SO

I think it's fair to forgive the total lack of accuracy from The Bill James Handbook's 2013 projections for Koji Uehara. After all, heading into the season, Uehara wasn't even on the radar as a possible closer, as we had Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey seemingly ready to go.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Red Sox would not have won the World Series without Uehara in the closer spot. Beyond the absolutely lights out season he had numbers-wise, Uehara was one of many spiritual centers of the team, earning the nickname "High Five City" by midsummer.

I know I can't be the only Red Sox fan who was intimidated by Uehara's post-save celebration antics: every time he charged triumphantly off the mound I was sure he was going to fracture his hand with the ferocity of his high fives.

But Uehara remained safe, sound, and absolutely dominant to the very end. His ERA was just over a run, and his BB/SO ratio was unreal (though to be fair, that's been consistent throughout his career).

It's possible that Uehara might have a bit of a backslide in 2014: he tossed a lot of innings last year, and at his age that might wear on him. However, it's obvious that trying to predict the greatness that is Koji Uehara is futile, so I'll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

No comments:

Post a Comment