2015 Bill James Projections: Jackie Bradley Jr.

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2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB
2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB
2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB
2014: 127 games, .198 BA, .265 OBP, .266 SLG, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 8 SB
2015 projection: 129 games, .226 BA, .298 OBP, .341 SLG, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 8 SB

It's no secret that Jackie Bradley Jr.'s value doesn't primarily lie in his bat. This season wasn't nearly as much fun overall as 2013, but Bradley's consistently spectacular performance in the outfield was one of the few bright spots.

Bill James is slightly less optimistic for 2015 after Bradley's disappointing offensive performance in 2014, but he's still predicting some improvement, including a nearly 30 point jump in batting average.

Obviously Bradley will never be a power hitter, but post-steroid era, how many elite defensive center fielders can claim that title? Not to mention, runs saved are just as valuable as runs scored, and though Bradley scored only 53, he saved 14. 

The player Bradley was tasked with replacing in the Red Sox outfield, Jacoby Ellsbury, scored 88 runs, but saved -5, meaning his defense (and let's be clear, probably his below-average throwing arm) cost the Yankees five runs. Bradley was worth 67 net runs to the Red Sox, while Ellsbury was worth 83 for the Yankees - not as big a difference as one might expect, given the $20 million difference in their salaries.

Would it be nice to have Ellsbury? Sure, at least until he's owed $63 million dollars for ages 35-37. But if Bradley can improve at the plate as much as James seems to believe, he's an absolute steal - and the highlight reel catches will keep on coming.

In Defense of Jacoby Ellsbury

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Even when Jacoby Ellsbury won us all free tacos in 2007, even when he was healthy, I always kept myself from embracing him fully. He certainly helped the Red Sox during his time here, and by all accounts was a good teammate; he even grew a beard during last season's magical run.

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But through all that, there was a lingering certainty that Ellsbury's presence in the Red Sox dugout, and in center field at Fenway, was temporary. You don't sign with Scott Boras to take a home town discount.

I understand that fans were upset at Ellsbury's departure. He was a young, talented, home grown player with the kind of speed we rarely get to see in a Red Sox uniform. But unlike certain other beloved players who have defected to the Bronx, Ellsbury never claimed he wouldn't play for the Yankees. Ellsbury never promised to be a Red Sox for life.

Hell, the Red Sox didn't even offer Ellsbury a contract, knowing full well they would have to commit to him for more years and more dollars than they were comfortable with. Sure, Ellsbury has been dynamite for the Yankees for far this season, but not signing him was never about this season.

The Red Sox didn't sign Jacoby Ellsbury because there's no telling what kind of player he will be by the end of his contract. Would you be willing to pay Jacoby Ellsbury $21 million dollars for his age 37 season? Especially considering his lack of durability in his twenties, I'm perfectly content to say goodbye.

I know Red Sox fans are suffering through a pretty bad start, and it's easy to say that keeping Ellsbury would have prevented that. That might even be true, but it's short-sighted - the Red Sox had Ellsbury for most of his prime years, at a reasonable price, and it would not be prudent to pay a premium for the better part of the next decade. (Personally, I'm in the camp that wishes we'd kept Jarrod Saltalamacchia instead of embarking on the A.J. Pierzynski Experiment.)

I haven't been at Fenway yet this season, so I missed Ellsbury's (figuratively) pinstriped Fenway debut. I understand the mixed reaction fans had to him, particularly given his spectacular performance in the absolute thrashing the Red Sox took at the hands of the Yankees.

But what did Red Sox fans want Ellsbury to do? Retire? The Red Sox didn't even offer him a contract (and no, a one-year qualifying offer doesn't count). Sure, it hurts that he went to the Yankees as opposed to literally any other team. But he took the money and security the Yankees offered, and almost anyone out there would do the same.

The truth is, Ellsbury looks like he belongs in a Yankees uniform. The Red Sox were always looser and sillier than would have suited Ellsbury - the Yankees straight-laced style fits his businesslike demeanor much better. 

Obviously, I would prefer he have no more games like last night while playing against the Red Sox, but I won't waste any more time booing him or wringing my hands because he left us. Ellsbury was never a traitor. He's a practical man who made a pragmatic decision, and I won't hold it against him.

Yankees: If at first you don't succeed, buy, buy again!

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The Yankees don't handle mediocrity well. During the 2008-2009 offseason, after they missed the playoffs for the first time since 1995, the Yankees went on a spending spree, handing out nearly half a billion dollars to three players on long term contracts:

CC Sabathia: 27 years old, seven years, $161 million
A.J. Burnett: 32 years old, five years, $82.5 million
Mark Teixeira: 29 years old, eight years, $180 million
Total: $423.5 million

Of those three players, only Sabathia has been worth the money and commitment. Burnett only played in New York for three seasons, and the injury-plagued Teixeira has only played 138 games over the last two seasons, with three years remaining on his contract.

Obviously, the "spend-now, worry later" philosophy paid off immediately, as the Yankees won the World Series in 2009 - but now they're dealing with an aging roster (last year the team's average age was 31.8 years old) that missed the playoffs once again, so they're back to their high buying ways this offseason:

Brian McCann: 29 years old, five years, $85 million
Carlos Beltran: 36 years old, three years, $45 million
Jacoby Ellsbury: 30 years old, seven years, $153 million
Masahiro Tanaka: 25 years old, seven years, $155 million (plus $20 million to Tanaka's former team)
Total: $458 million

Remember when the Yankees were going to spend sparingly and get themselves under the luxury tax threshold? Even with the mulligan they're getting on Alex Rodriguez's monster contract, that is absolutely not going to happen.

But it doesn't matter. The Yankees play in the middle of the biggest media market in the country, and the money they get from cable and radio rights ensures that they'll be able to spend boatloads of money on any players they want for the foreseeable future.

The Yankees could pay A-Rod this year and not break a sweat. It's one of the most ridiculous parts of MLB's no salary cap policy: teams in cities like New York, LA, Chicago, and Boston will always have more money to spend than those in Kansas City, Phoenix, or Milwaukee. 

It allows big market teams to take risks on long term deals if they want to, without fearing for financial ruin. They can outbid everyone else on short term deals and draft picks, since they can afford to prioritize roster flexibility over payroll. It's a testament to the sport that the league has had even a modicum of parity over the last decade.

As a Red Sox fan, I (mostly) benefit from this, so I don't have too many complaints - but as a baseball fan, the absurdity of the status quo is frustrating.

Ellsbury Awkwardly Introduced in New York

Via @JoeGiza

In one of the most awkward press conferences I can remember, Jacoby Ellsbury was just introduced to the New York media for the first time as a Yankee.

The awkwardness began when Yankees GM Brian Cashman presented Ellsbury's wife, Kelsey, with a bouquet of roses, looking a bit like he was asking her to prom.

Via @JoeGiza

Then, in his best impression of an eighth graders angsty poetry, Yankees Manager Joe Girardi told Ellsbury, "You no longer are a thorn in my side. You are a flower in our clubhouse."

To cap off the awkwardness, Ellsbury got up to put on his new pinstriped jersey (#22), and struggled with the buttons while the photographers took about a million pictures. 

Finally Ells got behind the podium and did his best to avoid answering any of the questions he was asked.

It's never been a secret that I'm not Jacoby Ellsbury's biggest fan - indeed, I gleefully referred to him as "D-Ellsbury" for months while he was a member of the Red Sox (and while that may have been in bad taste, I still maintain it was a clever nickname). I think New York made a mistake by overpaying Ellsbury, and I plan to gloat about it for the next seven years.

SoxCast in Syracuse: Episode 9

In this episode of SoxCast in Syracuse, we discuss the Ellsbury defection, the Pierzynski signing, and wild trade rumors.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jackie Bradley Jr.

©Kayla Chadwick 2013

2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB
2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB
2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB

With Jacoby Ellsbury off to New York, and barring another big trade or free agent signing, Jackie Bradley Jr. could be spending a lot of time patrolling center field at Fenway Park in 2014.

Bill James obviously expected Bradley to have a much larger role last season, but that didn't exactly pan out. After tearing up the Grapefruit League during spring training, Bradley started the season with the Red Sox, but was back in Pawtucket soon after.

In his short time with the big club, Bradley had some trouble with major league pitching, but given time his disciplined approach should pay off.

If we do see Bradley starting in center field in 2014, I suspect he'll be eased into it with lots of days off, especially in the beginning of the season. But if he reaches these projections in his first full year in the majors for less than three percent of what the Yankees will be paying Jacoby Ellsbury, I'll be more than satisfied.

Ellsbury to the Yankees

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As much as I enjoy being right, I really wish I had been wrong when I made the following prediction about Jacoby Ellsbury's future back in February:

...we already know what Boras is going to do: he'll delay all talk of a possible extension until after the end of the season, then allow the bidding war to begin. We know that Boras is licking his chops, hoping that Ells will have a 2011 type season, so he can start measuring him for high-priced pinstripes. -The Jacoby Ellsbury Farewell Tour

Nine months and a World Championship later, and Ellsbury is ready to defect to the Bronx. No one who has followed the long and incredibly predicable career of Scott Boras should be surprised - typically a player signs with him looking for a big payday, and Ellsbury is getting just that.

Reportedly the deal is worth at least $153 million over seven years, and will include an option for an eighth year and an additional $16 million.

Ellsbury is a great player. He's fun to watch, his teammates like him, and he has a tendency to make highlight worthy catches. But there is no way the Red Sox would consider offering him a deal anywhere approaching this one - and they're right.

A deal this long term is foolish, especially since Ellsbury relies so much on his speed - that's typically one of the first things to go as a player ages. I like Jacoby Ellsbury. I respect him as a player, and as a person. I even hope he does well going forward - so long as his new team fails spectacularly.

SoxCast in Syracuse: Episode 6

This week's podcast theme is free agents. As always, feel free to download, share, and comment!

I love this team!

Photo via Boston.com

Today's Red Sox victory perfectly encapsulated everything I've come to love about this team. Sure, it started off badly, with Ryan Dempster turning in an absolutely putrid start. But pitchers have bad days, and good teams have to learn to find a way to win, which is exactly what the Red Sox did.

Though Dempster made it through just 3.1 innings and gave up all seven Mariners runs (four earned), young knuckleballer Steven Wright came to his rescue and tossed 5.2 innings of shut-out baseball.  On the offensive side, today was truly a team effort as seven Red Sox had at least one hit, and three had two.

The Sox managed to claw their way back, and the score was tied at the end of regulation play. Ryan Lavarnway walked to lead off the top of the tenth inning, and Jackie Bradley Jr. took his place as a pinch runner. Brock Holt executed a successful sacrifice bunt to move Bradley into scoring position, but Jose Iglesias lost a battle of an at-bat, striking out after eight pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury was intentionally walked after the home run he hit in the first, but Daniel Nava hit a two-out single to put the Red Sox up by one run.

Koji Uehara, spurned by the All-Star Game Final Vote, went out and recorded a save, facing just three batters and striking out two of them. Wright earned his first ever major league win, and the Red Sox extended their new winning streak to three games before they head to Oakland tomorrow, proving once again that you can't count these guys out. How can anyone resist loving this team? 

With West Coast trip looming, Sox earn another win

Photo via Boston.com

The Red Sox completed a three game sweep of the San Diego Padres with an 8-2 win at Fenway Park this afternoon. Rookie Allen Webster earned his first career win with a quality start, six innings pitched with just two runs allowed on a hot and humid Independence Day in Boston.

Webster had some serious run support from all over the lineup: leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury scored three times (once on his third home run of the season), Mike Napoli scored twice, and Shane Victorino, Brandon Snyder, and number nine batter Jose Iglesias scored once each, Snyder on his first homer of the season.

The Red Sox are kicking off a ten-game West Coast road trip tomorrow in Anaheim, where they'll play three games against the Angels, then heading to Seattle for four against the Mariners, and finishing up their tour with three games in Oakland before returning to the East Coast for the All-Star Break. Both the Angels and the Mariners are playing below .500, while the A's are in first place and currently claim a 50-36 record. Doubtless all three teams have better records than they would if the Astros hadn't been moved into their division.

Even so, it's important that the Sox maintain their winning ways while we struggle to stay awake during the seven of ten games that will end past 1am on the East Coast. John Farrell emphasized the importance of this road trip after today's victory, and with John Lackey dealing, Jon Lester seemingly back on track, and rookies stepping up, I'd say the Sox are likely to maintain their momentum heading into the All-Star Break.

Another Red Sox record for Jacoby Ellsbury

Tonight's game was fun to watch. Franklin Morales gave up a pair of runs in the bottom of the first inning on a Delmon Young homer, but that would be the only stain on his night. Morales pitched five innings, earning himself the win, and the bullpen took things from there.

On the offensive side, Jacoby Ellsbury set a Boston Red Sox record by stealing five bases in a single game. It's somewhat surprising that such a feat, though impressive, is a record for a club that's been around as long as the Red Sox, but very rarely has speed been a major factor in assembling a roster to play at Fenway Park. Ellsbury also holds the Red Sox record for most bases stolen by a rookie (50 in 2008), and the Red Sox record for most bases stolen in a single season (70 in 2009).

It's never been a secret that Ellsbury's most reliable asset is his speed. Indeed, prior to the 2011 season, no one considered Ells a serious power threat at the plate, but he's always been respected and even feared once he reaches base. He's incredibly adept at distracting opposing pitchers, which allows anyone batting behind him the chance to see more pitches to hit, as his presence edging off of first makes them liable to make a mistake.

I'm personally of the opinion that if Ellsbury has a successful season this year, we might not be seeing him around much longer. Scott Boras is Ellsbury's agent, and he's notorious for pushing his clients to free agency and the biggest paycheck. With Ells' history of injury, it's unlikely that the Red Sox would be willing to offer the kind of contract length and value that he might command on the open market. I hope I'm wrong, and that we get to watch Ellsbury confound pitchers and catchers for years to come - but if this season is the last I intend to enjoy every last stolen base.

Return of D-Ellsbury?

Jacoby Ellsbury left today's spring training game against the Phillies in the second inning with an injured right heel, sustained after the center fielder lept back to first base on an attempted pickoff.  The Red Sox reported that he was lifted from the game as a precautionary measure - but there hasn't been an update on his prognosis since early this afternoon.

Obviously, Ellsbury has a significant history of "minor" injuries that turn into major problems, most notably during the 2010 Parade of Carnage, when he played just eighteen games after breaking some ribs early in the season. It makes sense for the team to tread cautiously when it comes to Ellsbury's health.

There's nothing to even speculate about in terms of how severe the injury will be - though it does make me nervous that the team hasn't released a statement about his status. Anything serious would be as big a blow for Ellsbury as it woud be for the Red Sox, as it's a contract year for the Scott Boras client and he desperately needs to prove to potential suitors that he's more like the MVP runner-up of 2011 than the fragile player from 2010.

The Jacoby Ellsbury Farewell Tour

Ever since Jacoby Ellsbury signed with agent Scott Boras, we've all known this day was coming: Ells is in his last year before free agency, Boras has stated that he would do better on the open market, and team officials are joining them both in being awfully vague about whether anyone is particularly interested in an extension.

Players who sign on with Scott Boras are looking for a big payout when their turn comes, and Ellsbury is no exception. Sure, Ells is by all accounts a soft spoken, polite young man who plays the game hard and (when he's healthy, which admittedly hasn't been that often) very well, but at the end of the day, he's going to do what Boras tells him.

And because of past experience with Boras clients, we already know what Boras is going to do: he'll delay all talk of a possible extension until after the end of the season, then allow the bidding war to begin. We know that Boras is licking his chops, hoping that Ells will have a 2011 type season, so he can start measuring him for high-priced pinstripes.

Obviously, I hope that I'm wrong about this, but Boras has a well-established pattern. Perhaps I'm full of it, and Ben Cherington will call a press conference tomorrow with Ells, announcing a long contract extension - but I doubt it. The fit isn't right. The Red Sox don't like awarding long expensive deals to players who can't be healthy consistently (JD Drew notwithstanding), and Boras doesn't like to give up the chance for his clients to test the open waters of free agency.

So for my very first prediction of the 2013 season, I'm calling it right now: this is the last year that you'll see Jacoby Ellsbury in a Red Sox uniform. Enjoy the farewell tour and hope it's a good season, everyone, because we won't be seeing Ells in our dugout for much longer.

Lightning and good luck?

Today is the official reporting day for pitcher and catcher in Fort Myers, which means, in my head, that SPRING HAS SPRUNG (despite the nearly two feet of snow outside my apartment). Of course, most of the pitchers and catchers have been in camp for a number of days, and their position player peers are trickling in, as well.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia had a nerve-shaking flight to Florida yesterday, when the plane they were on was struck by lightning in midair. Ells took this occurrence as good luck:

I'm not sure that I've heard anything about this particular kind of omen, but I'll take Ellsbury's word that it's good luck. No word from Pedey (whose lack of a Twitter account is bordering on criminal), but he apparently isn't a huge fan of air travel in the first place, so he was probably just happy to get his feet back on the ground (though you have to think he chose a tough career for a guy who dislikes flying).

Apparently, lightning strikes are somewhat routine for commercial airlines, with each plane being struck once per calendar year, on average. Planes are built to handle such stress, so while the passengers might be unnerved by the bright flash of light, there's typically nothing to worry about.

Hopefully Elssbury's assessment of the situation is correct, because if there's a team out there in need of some luck, it's the Red Sox. Luck to get the clubhouse back where it needs to be, luck to make John Farrell's first season as Red Sox manager a roaring success, and perhaps most importantly, luck to ensure that everyone stays healthy.

This is probably a lot to hope for from a simple lightning strike, but today is the first official day of spring training, the first of many practices and games for the 2013 season, and hope springs eternal, after all.

2013 Bill James Projections - Jacoby Ellsbury

2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI
2012: 74 games, .271 BA, .313 OBP, .370 SLG, 4 HR, 26 RBI
2013 projection: 152 games, .294 BA, .346 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 67 RBI

Looking at Jacoby Ellsbury's "games played" column on baseball-reference.com is like riding a roller coaster.  For the first few full years of his major league career, he played most of the season - and then came the 2010 Parade of Carnage, when broken ribs limited Ellsbury to just 18 games.  This was followed by a career season in 2011: Goldenboy played 158 games, was selected to the All Star Game, came in second in MVP voting, and claimed a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. But then 2012 rolled around, with a meager 74 games played.

This past season was, yet again, marred by injury.  Especially when compared to 2011, 2012 was a HUGE disappointment for Ellsbury.  I sometimes fall into the trap of still thinking about Jacoby Ellsbury as the fresh-faced rookie that stole a base and won America a free taco in the 2007 World Series. But Goldenboy will be thirty years old next season, his seventh in the majors, and we still don't know what to expect from him in any given year.

Jacoby Ellsbury will be a free agent next offseason, and his agent is the infamous Scott Boras.  I think we will probably see a banner year from Ells, since everyone involved knows that the Red Sox will not be interested in paying the Scott Boras Premium when the time comes, and they'll want to showcase his talents to the entire league.  

That being said, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 2011 was a one-time thing.  I don't think Ellsbury is a "face of the team, build a franchise around him" type player - partly because of the constant threat of injury. I think Bill James and his crew are right on: we'll see a resurgence from Ells, but not quite a return to the godliness of 2011.

Ellsbury out 6-8 weeks, Sox call up Lin

According the Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, Jacoby Ellsbury's collision with Reid Brignac, the Rays' shortstop has resulted in a shoulder subluxation (a partial separation) and will be out 6-8 weeks.

Brignac apologized profusely, and it was obviously an accident, so I don't think there will be any hard feelings.  Unfortunately, all the apologies in the world won't allow Che Hsuan-Lin to replace Ellsbury's production while Golden Boy rehabs.
 

By all accounts, Lin is more than capable of duplicating Ellsbury's defense, as SoxProspects.com rates him well with "Plus speed.  Ability to steal 20-25 bases in the big leagues.  Well-above average defender.  Possesses outstanding defensive instincts.  Seems to get a head start on balls off the bat.  Covers excellent ground from gap-to-gap.  Plus-plus arm, with improving accuracy."

Sadly, Lin will probably be unable to live up to Bill James' projections for Ellsbury: .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG.  If Ells is back in exactly eight weeks, we should see him for the beginning of interleague play in Washington, DC on Friday, June 8th.

Can the Red Sox do it without him until then? They've already lost their closer, Andrew Bailey, until sometime around the All Star Break, and the loss of the runner-up for the 2012 MVP Award can't be overlooked. Personally, I think they'll be able to hang in - so long as the pitching staff can hold things together.

Check out this link from ESPN Boston for more info on the injury: http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7811757/boston-red-sox-fear-jacoby-ellsbury-miss-significant-time

Optimism rewarded!

Due to a series of unexpected events, I was able to catch the last four innings of today's game - I had thought I was going to miss the whole thing.  So after running back to my room after an ESPN info session at Career Services, I immediately turned on the TV and was pleased to see that the Sox were leading 4-1 in the sixth inning.

I did pretty well with my morning predictions: Beckett went out there and pitched his heart out, going eight innings (and it would have been nine if the Sox half of the eighth hadn't been so explosive) giving up a single run on one hit and one walk.

The lineup certainly rose to the occasion, as everyone but Cody Ross had at least one hit - and Ross had a sacrifice fly for an RBI. Kevin Youkilis in particular had a great day, going 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs, while Adrian Gonzalez continued his early success with a 3-for-5 day and an RBI.  Sadly, my only incorrect prediction was about Pedey: he didn't manage to hit a home run today, but he did beat out an infield hit once I started watching.

The funniest moment of the day had to be Kelly Shoppach's first career stolen base (above) which included a failed slide and then a flop.  I wondered at Shoppach's presence over Salty when I saw the lineup this morning, but obviously Bobby V. knew what he was doing when he put the lineup card together.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows today, as Jacoby Ellsbury left the game with a shoulder injury after going 2-for-3 with an RBI to start the game. Here's hoping Golden Boy makes a quick and full recovery.

When we know more about the extent of Ellsbury's injury, I'll post an update here - after his killer season last year, the Red Sox cannot afford to lose Ells long term.

Opening Day optimism

I'm guessing that most of you, like me, are on the redsox.com mailing list, and you also woke up to the above picture in your email.  It's a beautiful photo (and really just makes me want to sneak into Fenway in the early morning with a camera) to start off Opening Day - here's hoping at that time tomorrow the Sox will have kicked off a winning streak.

By chance, I was at the final home game of last season, and like most of September, the day ended in a loss (to the Orioles, no less).  At the time, I wasn't too worried, since there six games still to play and I figured they would clinch soon enough. I won't rehash it now, on the morning of a fresh start, but you all know how that worked out.

I know that there are mixed feelings about the movie Fever Pitch, but there's one scene from it in particular that encompasses how I feel today (and on all Home Openers): the main character's season tickets have arrived, and after he's embraced the delivery guy, he and his friends open the box, touching and smelling and caressing the tickets.  "A new season," says one of them with awe, "a clean slate." The main character smells his sheet of tickets and declares that "this smells like the year."

From all the way in Connecticut, this smells like the year. Soon enough we'll have forgotten this 1-5 start, the bullpen will shake out the kinks, and the field players will find their groove.  Opening Day is about unbridled optimism, and since I won't be able to watch this year (I have to commentate Trinity baseball this afternoon), I'm broadcasting my good feelings now.

I'm predicting Josh Beckett will go out there looking to prove himself after an abysmal start last week in Detroit, and pitch deep into the game.  The lineup will rise to the occasion of performing in front of the Fenway crowd, and those who have been struggling (I'm looking at you Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis) will get in in gear.

Sox take Opening Day, and for my final prediction, Dustin Pedroia goes yard - because that's just what he does on Opening Day.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Outfielders

[A continuation of this post which I began with the Bill James projections for infielders.]


Left field, Carl Crawford:
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI
2011: 130 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 155 games, .286 BA, .332 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 73 RBI

It's no secret that Crawford performed rather less well than we had hoped he would last season, and James' expectations seem to have been lowered in keeping with 2011.  The good news is that though Crawford only managed to steal 18 bases last year, James thinks he'll steal 34 next season.


Center field, Jacoby Ellsbury:
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI

I think it's safe to say that Ellsbury proved himself last year, but apparently James is expecting a backslide. Here's hoping Goldenboy proves him wrong.


[Possible] Right fielder, Ryan Sweeney:
2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI

Both last years numbers and the projections were for Oakland - and Sweeney's playing time is up in the air.  These numbers are solid enough for a fourth outfielder, but I'd like to see more power out of a permanent corner guy.

[Possible] Right fielder, Darnell McDonald:
2011: 79 games, .236 BA, .303 OBP, .401 SLG, 6 HR, 24 RBI

2012 projection: 113 games, .268 BA, .325 OBP, .320 SLG, 9 HR, 40 RBI


McDonald has been more than serviceable in the last few years - the right fielder job is still up in the air, and it stands to reason he'll get a shot at it.


Other possibilities for the outfield include Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin, both of whom spent last year in the minors, so they don't have projections in the 2012 Handbook.

Win-win for Red Sox fans

[This video has always pissed me off a little, since I feel it implies that female baseball fans are somehow unable to appreciate the nuances of a pitcher's duel, and can only pay attention to the fireworks of homeruns.]

Anyway, you all know that THIS female fan has a place in her heart for games of all types, from no-hitters to blowouts, they all have something to offer, and tonight's game had a little bit of everything.

Josh Beckett went six innings, allowing four hits and one run (a longball by Mike Napoli that this "chick" certainly didn't "dig"), then Franklin Morales came in and tossed a perfect inning with two K's, and Matt Albers came in for the eighth, giving up a single run on two hits and a walk.  For some inexplicable reason, Jonathan Papelbon entered the game, recording a one-two-three ninth inning, though it was nowhere close to being a save situation.

The bats were alive and well tonight - finally - as Adrian Gonzalez went deep for the second straight game, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford notched homeruns of their own.  Crawford, Marco Scutaro, and the newly returned David Ortiz all struck doubles, and Ellsbury swiped his thirty-fifth stolen base. 

When it was all over, the Red Sox had scored thirteen runs, and everyone in the starting lineup had at least one hit.  Tonight's game was a win-win for Sox fans - whether you dig the longball, splendid pitching performances, or inexplicable calls to the bullpen.