2014 Bill James Projections - Koji Uehara

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2011: 2-3, 65 games, 0 saves, 65 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9 BB, 85 SO
2012 projection: 5-2, 62 games, 0 saves, 58 IP, 2.64 ERA, 8 BB, 55 SO
2012: 0-0, 37 games, 1 save, 36 IP, 1.75 ERA, 3 BB, 43 SO
2013 projection: 3-1, 43 games, 4 saves, 40 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6 BB, 39 SO
2013: 4-1, 73 games, 21 saves, 74.1 IP, 1.09 ERA, 9 BB, 101 SO
2014 projection: 6-2, 69 games, 23 saves, 75 IP, 1.80 ERA, 9 BB, 82 SO

I think it's fair to forgive the total lack of accuracy from The Bill James Handbook's 2013 projections for Koji Uehara. After all, heading into the season, Uehara wasn't even on the radar as a possible closer, as we had Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey seemingly ready to go.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Red Sox would not have won the World Series without Uehara in the closer spot. Beyond the absolutely lights out season he had numbers-wise, Uehara was one of many spiritual centers of the team, earning the nickname "High Five City" by midsummer.

I know I can't be the only Red Sox fan who was intimidated by Uehara's post-save celebration antics: every time he charged triumphantly off the mound I was sure he was going to fracture his hand with the ferocity of his high fives.

But Uehara remained safe, sound, and absolutely dominant to the very end. His ERA was just over a run, and his BB/SO ratio was unreal (though to be fair, that's been consistent throughout his career).

It's possible that Uehara might have a bit of a backslide in 2014: he tossed a lot of innings last year, and at his age that might wear on him. However, it's obvious that trying to predict the greatness that is Koji Uehara is futile, so I'll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Koji Time

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At the beginning of the season, I had Joel Hanrahan on my fantasy team. I had high hopes for Hanrahan, but even when he went down, I wasn't worried about the closer situation. If you're guessing I added Andrew Bailey to my fantasy team, you'd be correct - but I also added Koji Uehara.

It's goes without saying that my best add was certainly the last one, as we all know about Uehara's incredible numbers since taking over the ninth inning.

Uehara's brilliance hasn't gone unnoticed by his teammates either. Fellow pitcher Craig Breslow is blogging over at WEEI for the duration of the playoffs, and here's what he had to say:

But what he’s done is absolutely unbelievable. John Lackey and I were joking, why don’t we just start him and see how long he can go? If it’s three or four innings and 15 to 20 pitches and he gets tired, then we’ll worry about bringing somebody in behind him.

The best perspective on his stuff has got to come from a hitter because the way I see it, his stuff seems very pedestrian. It seems almost like, ‘Huh, maybe I can mess around with a splitter and get a pitch like that.’ Then you see the swings that guys take and you see the results that he’s gotten — not over an inning or two innings but 75 innings. I think collectively we’re all missing something, because the swings that guys take at that pitch are like he’s throwing a wiffleball.

Every time the rest of the Sox pitching staff can hand the ball safely to Koji Uehara at the end of each game, I'm confident in our chances. Gone are the days of heart-attack innings from Jonathan Papelbon circa 2011, or the nightmarishly unpredictable antics of Alfredo Aceves in 2012.

No, 2013 is different. It's Koji time - High Five City.

Another blown save for Bailey

After a strange last outing in which he blew the save and then was credited with the win (sometimes baseball rules are weird), Andrew Bailey looked to redeem himself this evening. He came on with a one-run lead, and promptly allowed a walk off homer to Jhonny Peralta. John Lackey pitched very well - much like Felix Doubront did on Tuesday - but could not claim the win because Bailey couldn't lock it down.

So now what? The Red Sox started the season with a surplus of closing options, but now Joel Hanrahan has had season-ending surgery and Andrew Bailey has blown two saves in a row. Any baseball fan around my age or older remembers what a catastrophic failure the "closer by committee" experiment was, but there is no obvious Plan C if Bailey's troubles can't be straightened out.

Junichi Tazawa has a few saves to his credit this season, but in my opinion there's more value in his current role, able to go out and pitch multiple innings on a pretty regular basis. Koji Uehara is always fun to watch, and he clearly thrives on the adrenaline rush of a successful single inning, displaying what could be defined as the "closer's mentality, but you have to be concerned by Uehara's age: the 38-year-old righty can't pitch multiple days in a row.

The Red Sox bullpen has some pretty intriguing and successful arms, but they all work so well where they are - aside from the recent spate of blown saves, the 'pen has been a clear strength this season. There's talk about looking to trade for a closer, and if/when Will Middlebrooks gets his bat up to speed, Stephen Drew could be interesting trade bait. One thing is certain: if Andrew Bailey can't get his act together, he can't be the Red Sox closer much longer.

Koji Uehara with the save

Koji Uehara is way too much fun. Every time Uehara gets out of an inning, he requests (and receives) high fives from everybody on the team, coaches, players, training staff, and translators. Last night, when Uehara earned his first save of the season in extra innings, he didn't disappoint and the high fiving was just as enthusiastic as ever.

The Red Sox are Uehara's third major league team, as he made his debut for the Orioles in 2009, and after spending two seasons plus in Baltimore, he ended up pitching for the Texas Rangers in 2011 and 2012. He was one of the free agents the Sox signed this offseason with little fanfare, expecting him to be a one-inning per outing guy, which is pretty much what we've seen.

With Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan both on the roster, no one considered the possibility that Uehara might close even a single game - indeed, even with both of them on the disabled list, John Farrell had said that Junichi Tazawa would have the job. But Tazawa pitched two innings and got the win on Thursday, so Uehara got the call last night in the bottom of the tenth inning - and he certainly came through.

Closer woes

Just one day after Jon Lester came one batter away from a perfect game to stop a losing streak, the Red Sox lost a heartbreaker in the ninth inning to the Toronto Blue Jays. It's time to address the elephant in the clubhouse: the Red Sox are without a closer, yet again.

With Joel Hanrahan out for the season, and Andrew Bailey reporting that he'll be unable to return from the DL as soon as he's eligible, John Farrell has designated Junichi Tazawa as the stopgap closer. This afternoon, the stopgap closer blew a save after the Sox had rallied to take the lead.

The Extra Bases Blog over at Boston.com has a really great breakdown of the Red Sox closer struggles since they let Jonathan Papelbon back - so far, the financial investment in his replacements has made it seem like it would have been a more responsible decision to just pay him.  Personally, I have a lot of confidence in Andrew Bailey (in fact, I picked him up on both of my fantasy teams when the Sox first declared him the closer), but he can't seem to stay healthy. 

Pitching is the story

Just as the story in the Red Sox success so far in 2013 has been the pitching, the loss this evening was all about the men on the mound. Jon Lester was less than sharp, giving up five earned runs in six innings pitched, before giving way to Junichi Tazawa, who gave up two earned runs of his own and took the loss. Joel Hanrahan, fresh off the disabled list, took the ball for the bottom of the eighth inning and gave up the ninth and final Blue Jays run of the night.

And so even on a night when the offense scored seven runs, the Red Sox suffered the loss. David Ortiz led the drive with a home run and four RBIs, while Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes also had homers. But it doesn't really matter how many runs you score if your pitchers can't stop the other team from rounding the bases.

There are obviously going to be nights like this. I'm not worried about Jon Lester - he's been so incredibly solid so far, this is just a blip on the radar. I'm also unconcerned with Junichi Tazawa, because his stuff is great, and I'm confident that he'll go back to being an important part of the bullpen. I do have to admit to being somewhat worried about Joel Hanrahan - but even if he turns out to be an enormous flop, Andrew Bailey has proven he can be the everyday closer.

The Yankees are about to pick up a game on us (they're currently experiencing the joy of playing the Houston Astros), but the Sox have Clay Buchholz on the mound tomorrow, going for his sixth win. I'm not worried.

Farrell doing everything right

John Farrell knows pitchers. Ask any Sox pitcher who was here when Farrell was the Red Sox pitching coach, and they'll tell you how phenomenal he was at getting through to guys, and getting the best possible performances from them. Terry Francona often said that Farrell could easily make the transition from pitching coach to manager, and everything we've seen so far backs up that assertion.

Farrell was right to put Joel Hanrahan on the mound this afternoon - and just as right with his quick hook after two straight walks from the closer. Any pitcher can have a bad outing. I was at the game on Wednesday night, and conditions were certainly less than ideal, making it totally reasonable (if not desirable) that Hanrahan might have a mistep.

After that kind of meltdown it's important for the manager to display his confidence that the poor outing was an outlier, which is exactly what Farrell did. But at the end of the day, the job of the manager is to put the right combination of players on the field to win games. Hanrahan couldn't find the strike zone, and the Red Sox were on the verge of wasting an excellent start from Jon Lester, so Farrell acted decisively and pulled him in favor of Koji Uehara.

With the exception of Hanrahan, the Sox bullpen has performed exactly as hoped (I can't be the only one with a budding love for Uehara), and Farrell has managed it admirably. Today's win was a nailbiter (I never would have expected that I would come out of it winless in fantasy baseball, seeing as I started both Lester and David Price), but all wins count the same in the end. Far more valuable that a decisive victory is the knowledge that Farrell will continue to make the difficult - and correct - decisions.

"Sellout" streak officially over

As awful as it was to watch last night's meltdown from Joel Hanrahan, there was a kind of poetic justice about the whole situation. It was the first officially un-soldout game in nearly a decade, and it somehow seemed to mirror the tendencies of the Red Sox over the last couple of years.

Things started off pretty evenly, as the Orioles scored, the Red Sox evened the score, and then the Red Sox pulled ahead by two runs - but the Orioles closed the gap heading into the rain delay. I know I came into the game with high hopes, after seeing the Sox dispose of the Orioles on Opening Day.

The first part of the game was like a microcosm of the 2011 season: the Sox got off to a 0-6 start, but managed to pull themselves out and back into contention by midseason, just as last night's squad fell behind but stayed within reach of a win by the rain delay. Post rain delay, Daniel Nava and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit two home runs, resulting in jubilation among the Fenway faithful, much like the incredible summer we enjoyed in 2011.

And then Hanrahan came on to close things out. After Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Andrew Bailey each pitched a scoreless inning, Hanrahan came in and couldn't close the deal - like the September 2011 meltdown of the entire Red Sox pitching staff (and, even more specifically, then-closer Jonathan Papelbon's personal meltdown against the Orioles on the last day of the season).

Andrew Miller managed to come in and get the last out, but then the Red Sox could not score in the bottom of the ninth - an exercise in futility that resembled 2012 in its entirety.

And so whether you buy my metaphor, last night was the beginning of a new era for the Red Sox. Hopefully the end of the "sellout streak" (which was fraudulent by the end, let's be honest) can be a clean slate for the Sox. Even after last night's loss, the Red Sox are still in first place in the AL East. Alfredo Aceves takes the mound tonight for the series finale, and while I wouldn't have chosen him as the tone-setter, he definitely has something to prove.

2013 Bill James Projections - Joel Hanrahan

2011: 70 games, 40 saves, 68.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 16 BB, 61 SO
2012 projection: 69 games, 37 saves, 67 IP, 3.36 ERA, 23 BB, 67 SO
2012: 63 games, 36 saves, 59.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 36 BB, 67 SO
2013 projection: 59 games, 40 saves, 57 IP, 3.63 ERA, 26 BB, 58 SO

Despite spending his entire career with the mostly less than respectable (pre-2012) Nationals and Pirates, Joel Hanrahan has pretty respectable numbers. It's unclear how the Red Sox will be handling the Andrew Bailey/Joel Hanrahan closer balancing act, though the online depth chart does designate Hanrahan as the ninth inning guy.

Hanrahan spent some time at Fenway Park this week, and seemed willing and ready to share time with Bailey: "...we'll get along great. All you can do is root for each other to have success and pull for the team. That's what we're going to do, I believe. He was in a tough spot. Any time you injure your hand in spring training, that's not fun. Especially coming over to a new team. I'm sure he's got to prove this year." (quote via Boston.com's Extra Bases blog).

Hanrahan also commented on the increased media presence at Fenway as opposed to his old home with the Pittsburgh Pirates, conceded that he was bound to say some stupid things, and reassured everyone that he would just roll with the punches.

Overall, Hanrahan seems like a good fit for the Red Sox. The projections that James and his team did were calculated under the assumption that Hanrahan would be the closer for the Pirates, so it's possible that he'll see more save opportunities - though it's nice to know that (barring a trade), the Red Sox will have two established closers waiting in the bullpen.