Thursday, January 30, 2014

2014 Bill James Projections - Jake Peavy

2011: 7-7, 18 starts, 111.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 24 BB, 95 SO
2012 projection: 8-5, 19 starts, 123 IP, 3.51 ERA, 29 BB, 121 SO
2012: 11-12, 32 starts, 219 IP, 3.37 ERA, 49 BB, 194 SO
2013 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 211 IP, 3.20 ERA, 47 BB, 200 SO
2013: 12-5, 23 starts, 144.2 IP, 4.17 ERA, 36 BB, 121 SO
2014 projection: 11-7, 25 starts, 163 IP, 3.31 ERA, 39 BB, 150 SO

It's been a long time since Jake Peavy won his Cy Young Award, and he hasn't been able to come close to matching the dominance of that 2007 season since. Nevertheless, he's a solid starter, and despite the howling from some corners of Red Sox Nation when we sent Jose Iglesias to Detroit in the three team deal that brought us Peavy, his short time in Boston has been successful.

There always seem to be murmurs of a trade surrounding Jake Peavy, and this year has been no different. The Red Sox have six legitimate starters on their roster right now, so somebody is likely to be the odd man out, and Peavy could be a free agent as soon as next season. (His contract includes a $15 million player option, but it will only vest if he reaches certain unlikely milestones.)

Assuming Peavy sticks around through 2014, and he lives up to Bill James' projections, he'll be a reliable starter. Whether he's actually worth the $14.5 million he'll be paid is another question entirely, but I'd hazard a guess that the Red Sox ownership is perfectly content to pay him for his contributions for the 2013 World Championship - I know I am.

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