2016 Bill James Projections: Jackie Bradley Jr.

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2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI

2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI

2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI

2014: 127 games, .198 BA, .265 OBP, .266 SLG, 1 HR, 30 RBI

2015 projection: 129 games, .226 BA, .298 OBP, .341 SLG, 6 HR, 36 RBI

2015: 74 games, .249 BA, .335 OBP, .498 SLG, 10 HR, 43 RBI

2016 projection: 145 games, .253 BA, .329 OBP, .416 SLG, 14 HR, 62 RBI

Jackie Bradley Jr. started the 2015 season in limbo. Shipped off to Pawtucket out of the gate despite tearing it up in spring training, Bradley cycled through a few short trips to Boston before making the permanent jump at the end of July. 

Then in August something amazing happened. The guy we'd been told was all-field, no-hit began mashing. In 26 August games, Bradley hit .354, with a .734 slugging percentage. That's not a typo: Bradley had 28 hits, and 17 of them were for extra bases, including 5 home runs. Of course, he fell back to earth somewhat down the stretch as major league pitchers began to figure him out, but Bradley proved that he's much more than an excellent glove.

The highlight reel catches kept on coming between the big hits, and even as Bradley's offensive numbers leveled off as the season drew to a close, there was no member of Boston's highly regarded outfield more reliable than he was. 

The Red Sox are reportedly planning to start 2016 with Bradley in center field where he belongs, and putting Mookie Betts in right. It makes a lot of sense: even with Fenway's rather expansive right field, it's a waste to have the spectacular Bradley playing anywhere but center.

Bill James and his team project Bradley to make some gains over a full season in 2016. But the Red Sox will be content if he can perform at even an average level at the plate, seeing as he'll doubtless save plenty of runs with his glove.

2015 Bill James Projections: Jackie Bradley Jr.

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2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB
2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB
2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB
2014: 127 games, .198 BA, .265 OBP, .266 SLG, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 8 SB
2015 projection: 129 games, .226 BA, .298 OBP, .341 SLG, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 8 SB

It's no secret that Jackie Bradley Jr.'s value doesn't primarily lie in his bat. This season wasn't nearly as much fun overall as 2013, but Bradley's consistently spectacular performance in the outfield was one of the few bright spots.

Bill James is slightly less optimistic for 2015 after Bradley's disappointing offensive performance in 2014, but he's still predicting some improvement, including a nearly 30 point jump in batting average.

Obviously Bradley will never be a power hitter, but post-steroid era, how many elite defensive center fielders can claim that title? Not to mention, runs saved are just as valuable as runs scored, and though Bradley scored only 53, he saved 14. 

The player Bradley was tasked with replacing in the Red Sox outfield, Jacoby Ellsbury, scored 88 runs, but saved -5, meaning his defense (and let's be clear, probably his below-average throwing arm) cost the Yankees five runs. Bradley was worth 67 net runs to the Red Sox, while Ellsbury was worth 83 for the Yankees - not as big a difference as one might expect, given the $20 million difference in their salaries.

Would it be nice to have Ellsbury? Sure, at least until he's owed $63 million dollars for ages 35-37. But if Bradley can improve at the plate as much as James seems to believe, he's an absolute steal - and the highlight reel catches will keep on coming.

Jackie Bradley Jr. Making His Case

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In a stunning reversal of last year's dynamics, Jackie Bradley Jr. is having an excellent start to the season after a somewhat disappointing spring training. Ironically, Bradley wasn't even supposed to be on the Opening Day roster, but Shane Victorino tweaked his hamstring and got the flu, so here we are.

In seven games, Bradley has eight hits (including two doubles), with five RBIs - and he's come up with some key defensive plays in that time, too.

No word yet on Victorino's expected return, but if Bradley keeps up the good work, there will be some tough decisions ahead. It's pretty clear that Bradley's making his case to stay, and with Grady Sizemore embarking on a redemption tour of his own, the outfield could be pretty crowded with the return of the Flyin' Hawaiian.

It's a nice problem to have - I'd certainly rather worry where to put all the productive outfielders, rather than panicking over where to find some offensive power.

Grady Sizemore to the Red Sox

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Apparently Red Sox Nation has healed enough since 2003 to let a man named Grady back into its good graces (the three World Series titles since then can't hurt). The former Cleveland center fielder hasn't played in the majors since 2011, but for the first few years of his career he was pretty durable.

Then in 2008, the injuries started. First it was a minor thing - a sprained ankle - but the very next season Sizemore had to skip the World Baseball Classic because of a groin issue, then needed elbow surgery and finally hernia surgery.

But the troubles weren't over, as Sizemore would be able to play just 33 games in 2010 before leaving the team to get knee surgery. In 2011, he played 71 games, missing time to knee problems and additional surgery on the old sports hernia.

Sizemore signed with Cleveland for $5 million in 2012, but needed back surgery during Spring Training, and didn't make it to the field all year. Last year, Sizemore had no takers for his services, despite remaining a free agent all season.

The Red Sox have now signed the injury-prone lefty to an incentive-laden one year contract worth a minimum of $750,000. As a veteran and former Gold Glove center fielder, Sizemore should be a good person to have around as the Sox try to get Jackie Bradley Jr. comfortable in the full time role. Hopefully the significant time away from the everyday grind of baseball will have returned Sizemore's body to a modicum of health.

2014 Bill James Projections - Shane Victorino

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011: 132 games, .279 BA, .355 OBP, .491 SLG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
2012 projection: 149 games, .277 BA, .344 OBP, .441 SLG, 17 HR, 64 RBI
2012: 154 games, .255 BA, .321 OBP, .383 SLG, 11 HR, 55 RBI
2013 projection: 155 games. .269 BA, .338 OBP, .418 SLG, 14 HR, 59 RBI
2013: 122 games, .294 BA, .351 OBP, .451 SLG, 15 HR, 61 RBI
2014 projection: 148 games, .270 BA, .336 OBP, .415 SLG, 14 HR, 58 RBI

Shane Victorino spent 2013 in a constant battle with his own body. It seemed like every week he had some sort of new nagging injury to contend with, but it was clear that he gave it his all every day he made it to the field.

Yesterday Victorino underwent surgery to repair his right thumb, which he injured during a mid-September game against the Orioles; he is expected to be ready for Spring Training. 

It's interesting that James projects fewer home runs and RBIs for Victorino in 2014, considering he's banking on Victorino playing in an additional twenty-six games. I would expect a healthy Shane Victorino to at least match his 2013 performance, and I wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed himself.

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

What the numbers here don't show is the defensive prowess that Victorino brought to Fenway's expansive right field. As someone who has played the majority of his career in center field, Victorino slid into the right field position pretty effortlessly last season - and his flexibility will certainly be a boon as the Red Sox ease Jackie Bradley Jr. into center next spring.

2014 Bill James Projections - Jackie Bradley Jr.

©Kayla Chadwick 2013

2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB
2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB
2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB

With Jacoby Ellsbury off to New York, and barring another big trade or free agent signing, Jackie Bradley Jr. could be spending a lot of time patrolling center field at Fenway Park in 2014.

Bill James obviously expected Bradley to have a much larger role last season, but that didn't exactly pan out. After tearing up the Grapefruit League during spring training, Bradley started the season with the Red Sox, but was back in Pawtucket soon after.

In his short time with the big club, Bradley had some trouble with major league pitching, but given time his disciplined approach should pay off.

If we do see Bradley starting in center field in 2014, I suspect he'll be eased into it with lots of days off, especially in the beginning of the season. But if he reaches these projections in his first full year in the majors for less than three percent of what the Yankees will be paying Jacoby Ellsbury, I'll be more than satisfied.

I love this team!

Photo via Boston.com

Today's Red Sox victory perfectly encapsulated everything I've come to love about this team. Sure, it started off badly, with Ryan Dempster turning in an absolutely putrid start. But pitchers have bad days, and good teams have to learn to find a way to win, which is exactly what the Red Sox did.

Though Dempster made it through just 3.1 innings and gave up all seven Mariners runs (four earned), young knuckleballer Steven Wright came to his rescue and tossed 5.2 innings of shut-out baseball.  On the offensive side, today was truly a team effort as seven Red Sox had at least one hit, and three had two.

The Sox managed to claw their way back, and the score was tied at the end of regulation play. Ryan Lavarnway walked to lead off the top of the tenth inning, and Jackie Bradley Jr. took his place as a pinch runner. Brock Holt executed a successful sacrifice bunt to move Bradley into scoring position, but Jose Iglesias lost a battle of an at-bat, striking out after eight pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury was intentionally walked after the home run he hit in the first, but Daniel Nava hit a two-out single to put the Red Sox up by one run.

Koji Uehara, spurned by the All-Star Game Final Vote, went out and recorded a save, facing just three batters and striking out two of them. Wright earned his first ever major league win, and the Red Sox extended their new winning streak to three games before they head to Oakland tomorrow, proving once again that you can't count these guys out. How can anyone resist loving this team? 

Red Sox end West Coast losing streak

Image source: Boston Globe

Before last night, I was beginning to get a little worried that my support was acting as a jinx for Red Sox prospects. I'm probably the least superstitious and most skeptical person I know - except when it comes to baseball. I don't utter the words "no-hitter" when one is happening, I wear the same shirt to the ballpark as long as the Sox win when I do, and I won't leave my seat (at home or at the park) when there's a rally going on.

So when I bought Jackie Bradley Jr. and Will Middlebrooks shirts at the beginning of the season, and they both struggled before being demoted to AAA, I was worried. My concerns were only exacerbated when I decided to hold off on the purchase of a Jose Iglesias shirt, and he went on to have an incredible first half, both defensively and at the plate.

So I'm essentially convinced that I'm a jinx. Or I was, until Jackie Bradley Jr. contributed a home run to the Red Sox win last night. In fact, Bradley's homer was the blow that finally put the Sox on top for good in a game full of offense and somewhat devoid of masterful pitching performances on both sides.

The victory stopped what had become a string of Red Sox losses, albeit at only three games long. Indeed, had the Sox not come back to win last night, it would have been the very first four-game losing streak of the 2013 season. The West Coast has not been friendly to the Red Sox this week, but hopefully last night's game is the beginning of a turnaround: they're 2-3 so far on this road trip, but they have another two games against the Mariners and then three against the A's before the All-Star Break.

As long as I hold off on buying any more player t-shirts, I think they have a good chance of ending the West Coast trip on a positive note.

Great expectations for 42

Since tonight's game has already been called on account of inclement weather (luckily it's just rain and not the snow/sleet that's afflicting parts of norther New England), I hope that some of you will take this opportunity to go and see 42: The True Story of an American Legend. I'm planning to see it after the weekend with my roommate - she's out of town, and I promised I would wait.

One of the best things about being a baseball fan is the richness of the sports history - but it's important to acknowledge that not all of that history can be romanticized. The game of baseball is just as stained with racism as the rest of US history, and though Jackie Robinson was a revolutionary figure, his first game in the major leagues (exactly sixty-six years ago as of next Monday) was only the beginning.

I have high hopes for 42, but I will always point to Jule Tygiel's book, Baseball's Great Experiment: Jackie Robinson and his Legacy as the quintessential volume on the career and life of MLB's first African American player. By definition, a film has to cut out things that a book can expand upon - and the life of Jackie Robinson has far and away too many incredible moments to contain in two hours.

Jackie Robinson's legacy is incredible, and simply cannot be overstated. Though Major League Baseball only started officially celebrating Jackie Robinson Day in 2004, ballplayers have always been keenly aware of his amazing contributions; indeed, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano was named for Jackie Robinson (if you're wondering, Sox fans, Jackie Bradley Jr. was named for his father, who was named for singer Jackie Wilson - though Bradley Jr. names Robinson as one of his baseball heroes).

If anything, this movie will bring the hard fought achievements of Jackie Robinson to light in a way that will make a younger generation pay attention. It's easy to pretend that baseball's racial struggles are in the distant past, but one of my mothers was born in 1947 - the very year that Robinson debuted with the Dodgers (the other was born later, but still four years before the Red Sox finally integrated). We are literally just a generation or two removed from such shameful segregation - on and off the baseball field - and it's important to acknowledge the shame of the past, even as we work toward a better future.

Heading north

Perhaps I jinxed things yesterday with my unbridled optimism - I would be the first to admit that optimism isn't a natural state for me, as I'm much more comfortable with the cynic's role. In any case, the Red Sox suffered their first loss last evening, at the hands of the Yankees.

There were some good notes regardless of the loss: David Ross threw out two baserunners last night, and the kids continued to impress. Jackie Bradley Jr. had a double and an RBI, while Will Middlebrooks had two hits and an RBI of his own. Jose Iglesias, clearly gunning to stay with the big club even upon the imminent return of Stephen Drew, went 2-for-3 and bunted for a base hit.

Tonight they'll head north to Toronto, to a welcome that might be rather more hostile than one would normally expect from famously welcoming Canadians. The Blue Jays and their fans weren't exactly pleased when John Farrell deserted them after just two seasons to return to Boston - and you can't really blame them for feeling somewhat betrayed.

I can't imagine the hostility could last too long. Toronto is more of a hockey town than a baseball one, and we all know that Canadians are pretty much incapable of holding onto non-puck related anger for too much time. Either way, I'm sure Farrell won't let a few boos get to him.

Ryan Dempster and early season optimism

You couldn't really map out a better start to the season than the last two days. The Red Sox marched right into the Bronx and took the first two games of the season from the Yankees in decisive fashion in their own house. Jose Iglesias is outperforming expectations, going 5-for-9 with a double and an RBI in the first two games. Jackie Bradley Jr. has been on base four times, and has already knocked in his first RBIs (and his first major league hit), with four runs scored.

Both Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz each have a win to their name, and Ryan Dempster is preparing to make his Red Sox debut tonight. Though Dempster has struggled somewhat against the Yankees in his career, the sample size is rather small: just five starts in the last fourteen years.

Dempster is optimistic about his prospects, both in terms of tonight's game and the season as a whole:

“I’m thinking — I would love — my goal is 30 wins,” he said. “If I can get 30 wins, I”m going to take that. I won’t get greedy. I won’t get greedy, I won’t ask for 33 or 34, I’m just going to try to do that.”

Of course, Dempster has started more than thirty times just seven times in fifteen years (though, to be fair, he was a closer for a while mid-career). He seems to be meshing well with his new teammates, and it's impossible not to feel good when your team starts the season off 2-0.

Dempster will take the mound this evening against the 40-year-old Andy Pettitte, and with the Yankees' lineup as depleted as it's been, I feel somewhat confident about his chances to get his first Red Sox win.  It's been thirteen years since the Red Sox started off the season 2-0, when Pedro Martinez and Bret Saberhagen took down the Royals. In fact, the 1999 Red Sox won their first five games - maybe they're die for something like that again?

Big things for Jackie Bradley Jr.

A simple glance at the box score wouldn't leave you with a ton of confidence about Jackie Bradley Jr.'s performance yesterday afternoon - but a simple glance wouldn't be doing him justice. After one game, Bradley has a batting average of zero, but with three walks (one after falling behind in the count to CC Sabathia, 0-2) his OBP is .600.

I'm perfectly aware that statistics like that are totally meaningless with a minuscule  one-game sample size, but a three walk game is a success no matter the context. It's easy to forget with all of the hype surrounding this rookie, but Bradley has never even played a game in AAA, or spent any time in left field. But obviously he was equal to the hype, since he waltzed right into Yankee Stadium on Opening Day, and scored two of the Red Sox runs with an RBI of his own, in addition to some great play in the field (pictured).

It's always fun (and ridiculous) to take Opening Day statistics and stretch them out over a 162 game season: for instance, the Sox would be on pace to go 162-0. If you averaged Bradley's Opening Day performance over an entire season, he would have no hits, 486 walks, 324 runs scored, and 162 RBIs. Certainly that would be an altogether absurd full season stat line, but I do see big things for the rookie this year.

In fact, I'm so confident that I added Jackie Bradley Jr. to my fantasy team last night. I had to sacrifice Lorenzo Cain, but I know it'll be worth it over the full season. There may not be any Red Sox baseball today, but I'm happily throwing myself into the euphoric and plentiful baseball-is-back coverage all over the internet. After all, if I survived six months of reflection about the worst Red Sox season in decades, I can certainly last one day on the sweet memories of beating New York on Opening Day in their house.

Send Bradley down - for now

Go ahead and add me to the list of people who think that sending Jackie Bradley Jr. down to the minors to start the season is a no-brainer. This post from Boston.com's Extra Bases blog sums up the details nicely, but the short version is that if the Sox keep Bradley at AAA for just eleven days, they get another year of service time out of him before he hits the open market.

Make no mistake, Bradley will go to free agency when he gets the chance - players don't sign on with superagent and evil villain Scott Boras because they're sentimental and looking for "the right fit." No, players sign with Scott Boras because he will get them the most money, and you get the most money by getting to free agency as fast as possible.

On the flip side, it's obviously in the interest of a team to keep their young stars from free agency as long as possible. While the major league minimum salary is eye-popping to the average American at just under half a million dollars, it's chump change to owners who hand out salaries six times that for mid-level relief pitchers and bench players - and it allows them to give big deals to players with more service time.

Sending Bradley down to the minors (here's a friendly reminder - he has played exactly zero games for Pawtucket) for less than two weeks allows the Red Sox to hang on to him for an extra year. If Bradley is as incredible a player as he appears, trading eleven measly days in April of what is expected to be a bridge year for an entire year of service time down the road is an obvious choice. I fully expect the Red Sox to make the prudent decision regarding service time - it fits their pattern - and when Bradley makes it to the bigs by the the end of April, I'll be first in line to buy his jersey.