2014 Bill James Projections - Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster during 2013 Spring Training
 Source

2011: 10-14, 34 starts, 202.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 82 BB, 191 SO

2012 projection: 11-12, 32 starts, 203 IP, 3.95 ERA, 80 BB, 185 SO2012: 12-8, 28 starts, 173 IP, 3.38 ERA, 52 BB, 153 SO2013 projection: 11-10, 31 starts, 190 IP, 3.74 ERA, 66 BB, 172 SO
2013: 8-9, 29 starts, 171.1 IP, 4.57 ERA, 79 BB, 157 SO
2014 projection: 9-10, 29 starts, 168 IP, 4.02 ERA, 68 BB, 152 SO

Even though Ryan Dempster didn't live up to his 2013 projections, he deserves credit for one very important part of the 2013 World Championship run: he was one of the few Red Sox to come in to Spring Training with his facial hair already established.

All joking aside, Dempster was solid for the Red Sox in 2013. Sure, he had his share of early hooks, but he took the ball every five days, and tossed 171 innings, no small feat for a thirty-six-year-old who underwent Tommy John surgery over a decade ago.

Bill James and his team project some modest gains for Dempster in 2014, and his BB/SO rate has always been pretty fantastic. As a fourth or fifth starter, Dempster should more than satisfactory.

ALDS Game 2 Hopes for John Lackey and Co.

[Photo source]

Today is the first ACC football game here at Syracuse University, so of course I'll be there. However, kickoff is at 3:30pm, and Game 2 of the Red Sox/Rays ALDS starts at 5:37pm, so I'll probably leave at halftime to get home in time for my real love in life: baseball.

Yesterday's game was glorious. I won't rehash all of my reactions here (if you want them, check out the premier episode of my new podcast), but I will say that my favorite part of Game 1 was the team-first nature of the victory.

Sure, my favorite player is Dustin Pedroia; anyone who's spent two minutes with me or on this blog could tell you that. Yes, it was awesome that Pedey had the first hit in the Red Sox rally.

But the most incredible thing about yesterday was the most incredible thing about this team: it was truly a collaborative effort. Every Red Sox batter had at least one hit and one run scored. No Red Sox batter had a home run, and all that incredible production was the result of guys getting on base and trusting their compatriots to drive them in.

Jon Lester had an incredible start, and Junichi Tazawa and Ryan Dempster finished the game with barely a hiccup. Fenway aficionado John Lackey takes the mound tonight. The last time Lackey pitched in an ALDS, he took home the win - for the Angels, against Lester in 2009.

Once upon a time, before Tommy John surgery, before the chicken and beer debacle, John Lackey was lauded as a big-game pitcher. The Angels handed him the ball in their biggest moments, and he didn't let them down.

After a tough first few years in Boston, and the beginnings of redemption this season, John Lackey will climb the mound tonight looking to be that big-game guy once again. Earlier this season, I predicted a John Lackey resurgence... hopefully he'll continue to provide evidence for that point of view tonight.

And hopefully his teammates can duplicate some of the offensive fireworks from yesterday against Rays ace David Price. I have a good feeling about tonight.

Red Sox Never Say Die

[If you haven't seen The Goonies, drop whatever you're doing right now and go watch it.]

Like the Goonies, the 2013 Red Sox never say die. This season, the Sox have come from behind to win 28 games, most recently last night's contest against the Toronto Blue Jays.

As has been the case so many times this season, the win was a true team effort. Starter Ryan Dempster went seven innings and allowed just one run, leaving the game in line for the win. Unfortunately for Dempster, Junichi Tazawa came in and gave up a home run to J.P. Arencibia.

Arencibia's homer tied up the game, and was just the eighth home run allowed by Tazawa in 55.2 innings pitched this year. Craig Breslow pitched an inning before handing the ball off to Koji Uehara, who pitched 1.1 innings, and earned the win after Shane Victorino knocked in two Red Sox runs in the 11th inning.

In past years I haven't been able to muster much optimism when the Red Sox end up in extra innings on the road. Inevitably, I'd stay awake to watch the other team walk off, deliriously happy with their victory.

That hasn't been the case this year. This team seems to want it more than their opponents, and more than previous Red Sox teams. I'll happily stay up to the wee hours of the morning on a daily basis to watch the Sox win games like last night's.

I love this team!

Photo via Boston.com

Today's Red Sox victory perfectly encapsulated everything I've come to love about this team. Sure, it started off badly, with Ryan Dempster turning in an absolutely putrid start. But pitchers have bad days, and good teams have to learn to find a way to win, which is exactly what the Red Sox did.

Though Dempster made it through just 3.1 innings and gave up all seven Mariners runs (four earned), young knuckleballer Steven Wright came to his rescue and tossed 5.2 innings of shut-out baseball.  On the offensive side, today was truly a team effort as seven Red Sox had at least one hit, and three had two.

The Sox managed to claw their way back, and the score was tied at the end of regulation play. Ryan Lavarnway walked to lead off the top of the tenth inning, and Jackie Bradley Jr. took his place as a pinch runner. Brock Holt executed a successful sacrifice bunt to move Bradley into scoring position, but Jose Iglesias lost a battle of an at-bat, striking out after eight pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury was intentionally walked after the home run he hit in the first, but Daniel Nava hit a two-out single to put the Red Sox up by one run.

Koji Uehara, spurned by the All-Star Game Final Vote, went out and recorded a save, facing just three batters and striking out two of them. Wright earned his first ever major league win, and the Red Sox extended their new winning streak to three games before they head to Oakland tomorrow, proving once again that you can't count these guys out. How can anyone resist loving this team? 

Rotation keeps rolling

Photo via NESN

The last time a Red Sox starter didn't turn in a quality start was about a week ago, on June 30th; the team still managed to come away with a win, but starter Ryan Dempster earned a no decision. Since Dempster's last turn in the rotation, all four of his peers have managed to record quality starts (at least six innings pitched and no more than three earned runs allowed), and all but the unlucky Jon Lester also saw their efforts rewarded with a win. 

John Lackey started the run of excellence with a truly outstanding start against the Padres on Tuesday, tossing eight innings and allowing just one run. The next day, Lester pitched seven innings, allowing just a single run, but taking a no-decision. Allen Webster completed the sweep of the Padres on Thursday with six innings pitched, two earned runs allowed, and his first major league win.

Yesterday's game saw Felix Doubront make it through 6.2 innings and give up two earned runs in a win to kick off the ten-day West Coast road trip.  Dempster will look to continue this run of spectacular performances tonight as he faces off against Angels starter Jerome Williams. The usual Angels suspects are those who have fared the best against Dempster in their careers: Albert Pujols is 21-for-60 with eight home runs, Mike Trout is 4-for-10 with one home run, and, interestingly enough, Mark Trumbo is 5-for-10 with a home run.

But Dempster should be able to depend on his teammates, as those who have faced Williams in the past have done pretty well for themselves: Mike Napoli is 6-for-14 with two home runs, Mike Carp is 3-for-10 with no homers but four RBIs, and David Ortiz is 3-for-5 with two home runs. However, I'd hazard a guess that Big Papi might not see too many pitches to hit after his towering homer off of Dane De La Rosa last night clinched the win for the Sox.

It's not as if Dempster's last start was anything to be ashamed off, as he was just two outs shy of a quality start when he was pulled for Craig Breslow, but his teammates have all managed to show him up since then. Obviously Dempster's the kind of player who shows up determined to win, regardless of what his teammates have been up to - but it never hurts to have a little extra motivation.

Red Sox bats silenced in Baltimore

After the second extra-innings game of the week, the Red Sox bullpen could use some serious rest and relaxation. Alex Wilson was a lifesaver, as he was called up from AAA and was able to come in and pitch multiple innings, saving some of those worn-out bullpen arms. But what the Sox really need tonight was a nice long outing from starting pitcher Ryan Dempster, and he delivered.

Unfortunately for Dempster, the Red Sox run support was nonexistent  though I suppose you might call that karma, given the fact that recently he's had ridiculous offensive clout behind him. Dempster made it through seven and two-thirds innnings, and allowed just two runs. But with runners at the corners for Matt Wieters in the bottom of the eighth inning with two outs, it was pretty clear that whatever the outcome, Wieters would be the last batter faced by Dempster tonight, and Dempster walked him to load the bases.

It wasn't the ending Dempster (or the Red Sox) hoped for after delivering a quality start (better, in fact, than the 6 IP and 3 ER required to qualify). Though Koji Uehara was able to come in and record the final out of the inning, striking out J.J. Hardy on three pitches, the Red Sox couldn't stage a comeback. Orioles closer Jim Johnson struck out Mike Carp for the first out the ninth inning, then hit Daniel Nava with a pitch before inducing Jose Iglesias to ground into a 6-4-3 double play to earn the save and clinch the win for the O's.

This is the first time in more than two weeks that the Red Sox have lost two in a row (the last time was when they dropped two to the Phillies), and while they're still atop the American League East, their lead is now at a scant 1.5 games. The Sox have John Lackey going for them tomorrow, and Jon Lester will be on the mound to close out the series on Sunday, but it doesn't matter if you have Cy Young on the mound if you can't score any runs.

Run support and Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster earned his second win in a row and third win of the season this afternoon against the Angels, giving the Red Sox six innings and allowing just three runs, and earning a quality start on a beautiful afternoon at Fenway Park. The bats were alive and well, giving Dempster fantastic run support to the tune of ten runs - though any offensive outburst would pale in comparison to the absolute explosion during Dempster's last start, when the Sox punished Rangers pitching for seventeen runs.

I certainly picked a great time to put Ryan Dempster on my fantasy roster, as I added him before that ridiculous victory against the Rangers. He seems to be coming into his own now: up to today, his season ERA is 4.39, significantly higher than the 3.74 that Bill James has projected for the full campaign.

I see Dempster continuing to build on his recent success, and as the weather continues to get warmer, he can probably expect a respectable amount of run support going forward (though perhaps not as extreme as today and last week). A sizable amount of the blame for Dempster's six losses can be attributed squarely to a lack of run support early on, and it seems like the Sox bats have been trying to make it up to him all at once.

Red Sox crush Rangers, 17-2

Considering that it included twenty-two runs scored, it's pretty miraculous that tonight's game ended at a reasonable hour. Before the contest started, NESN's pregame analysts were discussing an interesting stat: of all current Red Sox players, only Stephen Drew had ever faced Rangers starter Justin Grimm, and he was 1-for-1, meaning that the team was technically batting 1.000 against him.

Once Grimm got on the mound, things didn't improve. He gave up two runs in the first inning, and managed to record just two outs in the second while allowing six Red Sox to score, before he was lifted for the first of four relief pitchers of the night. Indeed, Ranges manager Ron Washington apparently tired of calling on his bullpen (and likely wanted someone to be rested for the rest of the series) and resorted to putting a postion player on the mound for the bottom of the eighth inning.

You might remember David Murphy? He played for the Red Sox in 2006 and part of 2007, and he's been an outfielder for the Rangers ever since - until tonight, when he made his pitching debut. Indeed, he did better than any of the pitchers who came before him, as he allowed just a single hit (a double to Daniel Nava) and no runs.

The Red Sox were practically having batting practice tonight against the Rangers, scoring seventeen runs, and every single starter had either a hit or an RBI - only Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli failed to record at least one of each. David Ortiz's triple and Jackie Bradley Jr.'s first major league home run became footnotes in an explosion of offense  Ryan Dempster came through on the defensive end, allowing just three runs in seven innings before handing the ball off to the Red Sox bullpen. Normally having a 'pen give up two runs in as many innings isn't something to brag about, but compared to the travesty of Rangers relief pitching, I'll take it.

I was in sort of a funk all day, and this game was exactly what I needed. I know that a win is a win, and this one won't count for any more than the others when the season records are tallied up come October - but it counts more to me today.

Sox fall to Phils

Despite the way the game ended, Ryan Dempster was excellent today. My mother, the casual Red Sox fan, remarked that his name looked like "dumpster" (I'm sure he's never heard that one before) - but he pitched as well as you could expect tonight, giving up just two runs in seven full innings.

Unsurprisingly, the Sox bats couldn't get anything going tonight against Phillies' starter Cliff Lee. Indeed, when I saw who they had going for them tonight, I mentally prepared myself for the disappointment of the conclusion of the four-game winning streak. I would like to once again go on record thanking the Phillies for signing Lee back in the 2010-2011 offseason. Everyone figured he'd go to the Rangers or the Yankees, but he surprised us all and went to Philadelphia. If Lee had made a different choice, we'd be suffering at his hands much more frequently.

With Lee and Dempster performing well, that was an impressively quick game. Certainly it helped that the Sox and the Phils scored just four runs between them, but both Dempster and Lee worked at a brisk pace. Indeed, the two starters are exactly what MLB was hoping for with its rules on pitching speed.

It was weird to see Jonathan Papelbon pitching at Fenway Park again. The former Red Sox closer got the save for the Phillies, indicing David Ortiz into grounding out into the shift to end the game. I'm not sure why the boos seemed to be so loud - I don't begrudge Paps for following the money to his current team. The Sox weren't prepared to show him the money he was looking for, and you could argue that we've paid for that bit of thrift with all the closer woes we've had since the departure of #58.

Mother's Day mauling

The pitching woes continued for the Red Sox today, as Ryan Dempster gave up six runs in five innings, before giving way to three different relievers - only one of whom managed to pitch a clean outing. The worst of the lot was Andrew Miller, who only managed to record a single out while allowing three runs to score.

Jose De La Torre gave up a pair of runs in a single inning, while Clayton Mortensen was slightly better, giving up just one run in 1.2 innings, and only Craig Breslow managed to record a 0.00 ERA for the day while completing a single inning. The bullpen, heralded as a great strength of this team at the outset of the season, has become a liability.

Certainly, a large part of the bullpen's struggle has been injury-related, as the opening day closer is now out for the season, and his replacement is on the disabled list. But the big difference between the Red Sox incredible April and their so-far dismal May has been in the pitching - they managed to score four times today, and the score wasn't even close.

One of the things that we all looked forward to with the hiring of John Farrell was his expertise with the Red Sox pithing staff. He's certainly gotten Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester back on track, but his magic touch seems to be missing when it comes to the rest of the rotation and the bullpen. Pitching coach Juan Nieves has his work cut out for him lately, but if Farrell has faith in him, so do I.

Ryan Dempster and early season optimism

You couldn't really map out a better start to the season than the last two days. The Red Sox marched right into the Bronx and took the first two games of the season from the Yankees in decisive fashion in their own house. Jose Iglesias is outperforming expectations, going 5-for-9 with a double and an RBI in the first two games. Jackie Bradley Jr. has been on base four times, and has already knocked in his first RBIs (and his first major league hit), with four runs scored.

Both Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz each have a win to their name, and Ryan Dempster is preparing to make his Red Sox debut tonight. Though Dempster has struggled somewhat against the Yankees in his career, the sample size is rather small: just five starts in the last fourteen years.

Dempster is optimistic about his prospects, both in terms of tonight's game and the season as a whole:

“I’m thinking — I would love — my goal is 30 wins,” he said. “If I can get 30 wins, I”m going to take that. I won’t get greedy. I won’t get greedy, I won’t ask for 33 or 34, I’m just going to try to do that.”

Of course, Dempster has started more than thirty times just seven times in fifteen years (though, to be fair, he was a closer for a while mid-career). He seems to be meshing well with his new teammates, and it's impossible not to feel good when your team starts the season off 2-0.

Dempster will take the mound this evening against the 40-year-old Andy Pettitte, and with the Yankees' lineup as depleted as it's been, I feel somewhat confident about his chances to get his first Red Sox win.  It's been thirteen years since the Red Sox started off the season 2-0, when Pedro Martinez and Bret Saberhagen took down the Royals. In fact, the 1999 Red Sox won their first five games - maybe they're die for something like that again?

2013 Bill James Projections - Ryan Dempster

2011: 10-14, 34 starts, 202.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 82 BB, 191 SO
2012 projection: 11-12, 32 starts, 203 IP, 3.95 ERA, 80 BB, 185 SO
2012: 12-8, 28 starts, 173 IP, 3.38 ERA, 52 BB, 153 SO
2013 projection: 11-10, 31 starts, 190 IP, 3.74 ERA, 66 BB, 172 SO

Did you ever think the Red Sox would sign a pitcher coming up on his tenth anniversary of Tommy John surgery? That's exactly who they have in 35-year-old Ryan Dempster, who went under the knife in August of 2003 while playing for the Cincinnati Reds.

Dempster has a career winning percentage of .500, a balanced 124-124 record, and a career ERA of 4.33. His most similar pitcher through age 35 according to baseball-reference is A.J. Burnett. This could admittedly freak you out, but not if you remember that A) Burnett had great stuff but he psyched himself out a lot, and B) the Red Sox are paying Dempster $26.5 million over two years, and the Yankees paid Burnett $82.5 million dollars over five years - literally paying him to play for Pittsburgh in the final season of that contract.

Ryan Dempster has been bopping around the majors since his career debut with the Marlins in 1998; the Red Sox will be his fifth team. But he brings something important to Boston: consistency. Dempster predictably turns in about 30 starts per season, comes in just under 200 innings pitched, and has an ERA around 4. That's certainly not spectacular, but there is something to be said for routine.

If Dempster can perform up the the standards Bill James has projected for him (though these numbers were calculated under the assumption that he would mostly be pitching in Texas), he will be well worth the money the front office has invested in him.