2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

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2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI

Xander Bogaerts didn't quite live up to his 2014 projections, but it was well within the margin of error, and well within an acceptable range for a major league shortstop.

Not to mention, Bogaerts is still just 22 - there's plenty of time for him to develop into the offensive and defensive wunderkind we're all hoping for - unlike some people I can think of (ahem, Clay Buchholz).

Once again in 2014, Bogaerts was asked to shift around the infield in deference to Stephen Drew, though he was allowed to return to his natural position at shortstop when Drew headed south at the trade deadline. 

The best two months of Bogaerts' 2014? May, before Drew came to town, and September, once Bogaerts readjusted to being a full time shortstop. Those also happen to be the two months in which he had the most plate appearances.

As a guy who seemingly performs best when he's playing in the field regularly, Xander Bogaerts will probably never be able to make a career transition to DH. But as the shortstop position should be his alone for 2015, it should be safe to expect improvement.

The Outlandish Confidence of Scott Boras

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We're just about a month away from Spring training, and World Champion shortstop Stephen Drew is still without a home for the 2014 season. Superagent (and possible devil incarnate) Scott Boras is still confident about Drew's prospects, claiming he's spoken to four or five teams about contract possibilities.

Of course, one of those teams is the Red Sox - after extending Drew a one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer, the Sox have been standing firm. They don't think Drew is a multi-year investment at this point in his career. His defense is solid, but that value is somewhat tempered by how easily his bat was silenced during the playoffs.

I don't know which teams need a soon-to-be 31-year-old shortstop for multiple years, but if (as I suspect) Boras is bluffing about the level of interest from other teams, the Red Sox clearly hold all the cards.

If they can get Drew back for a single year, it would be a great way to ease Xander Bogaerts into the full time starting role. If Drew signs elsewhere, the Red Sox seem pretty comfortable with giving Bogaerts the starting job outright, and they get a draft pick.

Personally, as a proud member of the #DrewCrew, I'd like to see Drew back - but I won't shed any tears for him if that doesn't happen.

2014 Bill James Projections - Will Middlebrooks

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2012: 75 games, .288 BA, .325 OBP, .509 SLG, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2013 projection: 153 games, .277 BA, .316 OBP, .490 SLG, 29 HR, 99 RBI

2013: 94 games, .227 BA, .271 OBP, .425 SLG, 17 HR, 49 RBI

2014 projection: 145 games, .266 BA, .310 OBP, .490 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

After a promising 2012, Will Middlebrooks endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2013. It started with a demotion to Triple-A in April, and even after his return to the big club for the playoffs, he had lost his spot to Xander Bogaerts by the end of the run.

Clearly Bill James and co. don't expect that trend to continue in 2014, as they have him down to join the 30HR/100RBI club next season. Of course, Middlebrooks' position is currently in flux, as the Red Sox still have interest in Stephen Drew, and a roster with Drew, Bogaerts, and Middlebrooks would likely make Middlebrooks the odd man out - at least for a while.

Still, Middlebrooks' upside is much too high for the Red Sox to squander his talent by making him ride the bench too often - indeed, his potential is one of the greatest points of leverage the Red Sox have in their pursuit of a team-friendly contract with Drew.

2014 Bill James Projections - Xander Bogaerts

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI

Clearly when James and his team calculated these projections, they worked under the assumption that Bogaerts would be the everyday shortstop. Even if Stephen Drew comes back for 2014, I expect Bogaerts to play most days - whether he spends the majority of time at shortstop or third base depends on Drew's status and the early-season performance of Will Middlebrooks.

We only got a glimpse of Bogaerts last season. A late season call-up, Bogaerts slid effortlessly into the third base position during the postseason when Middlebrooks wasn't getting it done (Drew couldn't hit to save his life, either, but he was spared the bench because of his excellent defense).

This flexibility bodes well, as Bogaerts is just twenty years old, and already big for a shortstop - if he fills out more in the coming years, it's good to know he can flash the leather at the hot corner, too.

We've been hearing about Bogaerts' prowess with the glove for years - but he's also slated to become a bona fide power threat at the plate. As clichéd as it sounds, the sky is the limit for Xander Bogaerts going forward.

SoxCast in Syracuse: Episode 6

This week's podcast theme is free agents. As always, feel free to download, share, and comment!

Lester and #DrewCrew lead the charge

Jon Lester came through tonight, getting the win in a much needed Red Sox victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, David Price is killing my fantasy team, but since I also have Lester on the roster, I guess it all balances out.

The oft-maligned Stephen Drew was a key part of the victory, as he crushed a grand slam in the third inning. The Sox would score eight runs total in the third, batting through their entire order in an explosion of offensive production - and ousting Price from the game early on. Will Middlebrooks added a solo homer in the top of the eight inning.

Lester went seven innings and allowed two earned runs on eight hits, no walks, and recorded five strikeouts. It would be great for the Red Sox if Felix Doubront could keep this momentum going tomorrow, especially since both the Yankees and the Orioles lost this evening (to the Mariners and the Padres, respectively).

#DrewCrew comes through

Stephen Drew has had a rough start to the season, as he suffered a concussion in spring training, and was able to get just a fraction of the at-bats a player typically relies upon before starting the season.  Because of this stumbling block, he's struggled pretty seriously at the plate so far in 2013.

In addition to the actual problems Drew's been having, fan perception of him was already clouded because of the fact that Stephen Drew is JD Drew's younger brother. JD, of course, was one of the least popular everyday players of the last few years, as fans considered him overpaid, overrated, and fragile. I'll always stick up for JD - after all, it's not his fault Theo wanted to throw so much money his way - and I'll certainly always judge Stephen by his own merits, not those of his brother.

Last night, Stephen Drew was an offensive hero, going 4-for-5 while hitting a game-tying homerun in the seventh inning, and hitting a walkoff RBI double off the Green Monster in the bottom of the eleventh inning. Drew has finally gotten his batting average over .200 (currently at .225), and his defense has been solid throughout the young season.

So if anyone wasn't convinced before, I hope last night's performance has made you eager to jump on the #DrewCrew bandwagon, because there's plenty of room for everyone. But be warned - if you do decide to jump on the Stephen Drew bandwagon, you might find yourself sitting next to JD.

Heading north

Perhaps I jinxed things yesterday with my unbridled optimism - I would be the first to admit that optimism isn't a natural state for me, as I'm much more comfortable with the cynic's role. In any case, the Red Sox suffered their first loss last evening, at the hands of the Yankees.

There were some good notes regardless of the loss: David Ross threw out two baserunners last night, and the kids continued to impress. Jackie Bradley Jr. had a double and an RBI, while Will Middlebrooks had two hits and an RBI of his own. Jose Iglesias, clearly gunning to stay with the big club even upon the imminent return of Stephen Drew, went 2-for-3 and bunted for a base hit.

Tonight they'll head north to Toronto, to a welcome that might be rather more hostile than one would normally expect from famously welcoming Canadians. The Blue Jays and their fans weren't exactly pleased when John Farrell deserted them after just two seasons to return to Boston - and you can't really blame them for feeling somewhat betrayed.

I can't imagine the hostility could last too long. Toronto is more of a hockey town than a baseball one, and we all know that Canadians are pretty much incapable of holding onto non-puck related anger for too much time. Either way, I'm sure Farrell won't let a few boos get to him.

Stephen Drew, concussions, and responsible journalism

I was listening to sports radio this morning in the car when the topic of Stephen Drew came up. The hosts thought that being kept out of the lineup with minor concussion (which is a league rule), proved that "he really is  JD Drew's brother." Get it? Because JD Drew was obviously fragile and wimpy, and minor concussions are totally no big deal!

Well, first of all, JD Drew was one of my personal favorites - can't we just let him enjoy his retirement without making him the butt of jokes all the time? But more importantly, concussions are not a joke. Stephen Drew got hit in the helmet on Thursday while batting, didn't show any symptoms immediately, but later that night his vision began to blur. The team took action as required by Major League Baseball.

It is a Major League Baseball rule that any player exhibiting signs of a concussion must be cleared before returning to regular play:

Protocols for clearing a concussed player or umpire to return to activity; prior to the time that a concussed player is permitted to play in any game (including Major League, Minor League or extended Spring Training games), the Club must submit a "Return to Play" form to MLB's Medical Director; submission of the form is required irrespective of whether the player was placed on the Disabled List.

You can read the rest of MLB's concussion regulations here.

More importantly, concussions are a serious and growing problem among younger and younger athletes, many of whom hide or downplay their symptoms in an attempt to stay on the field - to the serious detriment of their health and cognitive function. When radio personalities (and any other media members) downplay the seriousness of concussions, when they equate professional athletes who sit out when concussed to wimps, they send the message to kids that concussions are no big deal, that they should be able to play through them.

Playing through concussions is dangerous and irresponsible, and insinuating otherwise is likewise dangerous and irresponsible. Not only is Drew simply following the rules, he's being smart.

Spring training pipe dreams

Today, the Red Sox did what they've become very good at recently: they lost a baseball game. Granted, it was only spring training, and the games are about getting everyone back into the proverbial and literal swing of things, not winning.

On the good side of todays events, Jose Iglesias hit a homerun in the loss to put the Red Sox on the board in the seventh inning. It's pretty clear that Stephen Drew will be the starting shortstop for the 2013 Red Sox, but it would be nice if Iglesias took such strides with his hitting that John Farrell was left with an impossible decision to make with Iglesias knocking on the door.

I realize this whole speculation is based of a single homerun in one spring training game, but isn't that what spring training is for? If I can't indulge my far-fetched dreams during spring training, when can I indulge them?

Bringing back the #DrewCrew

Though JD Drew was never an extremely popular player during his time with the Red Sox, he did have a band of loyal fans on Twitter, and we called ourselves the #DrewCrew. Poor JD never stood a chance with fans. The front office knew they were getting a relatively fragile guy with good OBP and excellent defensive positioning, but many fans just saw a constantly injured player who was unexciting at the plate and wouldn't dive for a ball like Trot Nixon did (though that was mostly due to the fact that JD made it look too easy).

But I always liked him. JD Drew was sometimes bland, to be sure (I once wrote a post entitled "JD Drew has no feelings"), but he was a solid player, if somewhat overpaid.  As I'm sure you're aware, JD's brother Stephen has joined the Red Sox this year as a shortstop, and I'm predicting a huge season for him.

As such, I would like to take this opportunity to announce the revival of the #DrewCrew, this time in support of the Drew brother still playing professional baseball. You can even recycle your old JD Drew jersey (I know SOME of you have to have one of those), because Stephen is wearing #7, just like his brother did.

2013 Bill James Projections - Stephen Drew

2011: 86 games, .252 BA, .317 OBP, .396 SLG, 5 HR, 45 RBI
2012 projection: 134 games, .264 BA, 332 OBP, .429 SLG, 13 HR, 61 RBI
2012: 79 games, .223 BA, .309 OBP, .348 SLG, 7 HR, 28 RBI
2013 projection: 118 games, .252 BA, .325 OBP, .411 SLG, 11 HR, 48 RBI

I'm sure you all remember Stephen Drew's brother JD, or, as I liked to refer to him, No-Feelings Drew. As you can see by the unabashed exuberance displayed in the photo above, Stephen Drew is very different from his brother - at least in temperament.

Drew has struggled with injuries the last two years, but when he's on the field he's a relatively consistant shortstop - better at the plate than Jose Iglesias, even if his glovework lacks the flash and brilliance of the "Red Sox shortstop of the future."

Make no mistake, this is a one-and-done deal, as Stephen Drew is represented by Scott Boras, and is due to become a free agent in 2014. Boras is either uniquely talented or incredibly lucky in getting great performances out of his clients in contract years - and I for one hope Stephen Drew's 2013 is no exception.