The Outlandish Confidence of Scott Boras

Source

We're just about a month away from Spring training, and World Champion shortstop Stephen Drew is still without a home for the 2014 season. Superagent (and possible devil incarnate) Scott Boras is still confident about Drew's prospects, claiming he's spoken to four or five teams about contract possibilities.

Of course, one of those teams is the Red Sox - after extending Drew a one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer, the Sox have been standing firm. They don't think Drew is a multi-year investment at this point in his career. His defense is solid, but that value is somewhat tempered by how easily his bat was silenced during the playoffs.

I don't know which teams need a soon-to-be 31-year-old shortstop for multiple years, but if (as I suspect) Boras is bluffing about the level of interest from other teams, the Red Sox clearly hold all the cards.

If they can get Drew back for a single year, it would be a great way to ease Xander Bogaerts into the full time starting role. If Drew signs elsewhere, the Red Sox seem pretty comfortable with giving Bogaerts the starting job outright, and they get a draft pick.

Personally, as a proud member of the #DrewCrew, I'd like to see Drew back - but I won't shed any tears for him if that doesn't happen.

Ellsbury to the Yankees

Source

As much as I enjoy being right, I really wish I had been wrong when I made the following prediction about Jacoby Ellsbury's future back in February:

...we already know what Boras is going to do: he'll delay all talk of a possible extension until after the end of the season, then allow the bidding war to begin. We know that Boras is licking his chops, hoping that Ells will have a 2011 type season, so he can start measuring him for high-priced pinstripes. -The Jacoby Ellsbury Farewell Tour

Nine months and a World Championship later, and Ellsbury is ready to defect to the Bronx. No one who has followed the long and incredibly predicable career of Scott Boras should be surprised - typically a player signs with him looking for a big payday, and Ellsbury is getting just that.

Reportedly the deal is worth at least $153 million over seven years, and will include an option for an eighth year and an additional $16 million.

Ellsbury is a great player. He's fun to watch, his teammates like him, and he has a tendency to make highlight worthy catches. But there is no way the Red Sox would consider offering him a deal anywhere approaching this one - and they're right.

A deal this long term is foolish, especially since Ellsbury relies so much on his speed - that's typically one of the first things to go as a player ages. I like Jacoby Ellsbury. I respect him as a player, and as a person. I even hope he does well going forward - so long as his new team fails spectacularly.

Another Red Sox record for Jacoby Ellsbury

Tonight's game was fun to watch. Franklin Morales gave up a pair of runs in the bottom of the first inning on a Delmon Young homer, but that would be the only stain on his night. Morales pitched five innings, earning himself the win, and the bullpen took things from there.

On the offensive side, Jacoby Ellsbury set a Boston Red Sox record by stealing five bases in a single game. It's somewhat surprising that such a feat, though impressive, is a record for a club that's been around as long as the Red Sox, but very rarely has speed been a major factor in assembling a roster to play at Fenway Park. Ellsbury also holds the Red Sox record for most bases stolen by a rookie (50 in 2008), and the Red Sox record for most bases stolen in a single season (70 in 2009).

It's never been a secret that Ellsbury's most reliable asset is his speed. Indeed, prior to the 2011 season, no one considered Ells a serious power threat at the plate, but he's always been respected and even feared once he reaches base. He's incredibly adept at distracting opposing pitchers, which allows anyone batting behind him the chance to see more pitches to hit, as his presence edging off of first makes them liable to make a mistake.

I'm personally of the opinion that if Ellsbury has a successful season this year, we might not be seeing him around much longer. Scott Boras is Ellsbury's agent, and he's notorious for pushing his clients to free agency and the biggest paycheck. With Ells' history of injury, it's unlikely that the Red Sox would be willing to offer the kind of contract length and value that he might command on the open market. I hope I'm wrong, and that we get to watch Ellsbury confound pitchers and catchers for years to come - but if this season is the last I intend to enjoy every last stolen base.

Robinson Cano fires Scott Boras

It's looking like Robinson Cano will be around to torture Red Sox pitchers and rob would-be gap hits for years to come. The Yankees' second baseman has reportedly ditched superagent Scott Boras and signed on with Roc Nation Sports, an agency headed by hip-hop mogul and Yankees fan Jay-Z.

Robinson is in a contract year, and rejected an extension offer from the Yankees this spring training while still represented by Boras, whose negotiating strategy is nearly always marked by testing the market in free agency to find the most lucrative deal. Red Sox fans will remember this strategy, because it's caused them to lose out on free agents to the endlessly wealthy Yankees multiple times, perhaps most notably Mark Teixeira in the 2008-2009 offseason.

Cano is my second-favorite Yankee (you can't beat out Mariano Rivera, at least for one more year). You might say I have a soft spot for second baseman, given my love for Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Marco Scutaro, and Cano. As much as I don't love watching Cano rake against Red Sox pitchers, I do love to watch him play, and I would hate to see him go to the NL where he'd undoubtedly be successful, but I'd miss watching him.

Though it's certainly possible that Cano ends up elsewhere, despite the much-lauded agent switch, things certainly look good for the Yankees.

Return of D-Ellsbury?

Jacoby Ellsbury left today's spring training game against the Phillies in the second inning with an injured right heel, sustained after the center fielder lept back to first base on an attempted pickoff.  The Red Sox reported that he was lifted from the game as a precautionary measure - but there hasn't been an update on his prognosis since early this afternoon.

Obviously, Ellsbury has a significant history of "minor" injuries that turn into major problems, most notably during the 2010 Parade of Carnage, when he played just eighteen games after breaking some ribs early in the season. It makes sense for the team to tread cautiously when it comes to Ellsbury's health.

There's nothing to even speculate about in terms of how severe the injury will be - though it does make me nervous that the team hasn't released a statement about his status. Anything serious would be as big a blow for Ellsbury as it woud be for the Red Sox, as it's a contract year for the Scott Boras client and he desperately needs to prove to potential suitors that he's more like the MVP runner-up of 2011 than the fragile player from 2010.

Send Bradley down - for now

Go ahead and add me to the list of people who think that sending Jackie Bradley Jr. down to the minors to start the season is a no-brainer. This post from Boston.com's Extra Bases blog sums up the details nicely, but the short version is that if the Sox keep Bradley at AAA for just eleven days, they get another year of service time out of him before he hits the open market.

Make no mistake, Bradley will go to free agency when he gets the chance - players don't sign on with superagent and evil villain Scott Boras because they're sentimental and looking for "the right fit." No, players sign with Scott Boras because he will get them the most money, and you get the most money by getting to free agency as fast as possible.

On the flip side, it's obviously in the interest of a team to keep their young stars from free agency as long as possible. While the major league minimum salary is eye-popping to the average American at just under half a million dollars, it's chump change to owners who hand out salaries six times that for mid-level relief pitchers and bench players - and it allows them to give big deals to players with more service time.

Sending Bradley down to the minors (here's a friendly reminder - he has played exactly zero games for Pawtucket) for less than two weeks allows the Red Sox to hang on to him for an extra year. If Bradley is as incredible a player as he appears, trading eleven measly days in April of what is expected to be a bridge year for an entire year of service time down the road is an obvious choice. I fully expect the Red Sox to make the prudent decision regarding service time - it fits their pattern - and when Bradley makes it to the bigs by the the end of April, I'll be first in line to buy his jersey.

The Jacoby Ellsbury Farewell Tour

Ever since Jacoby Ellsbury signed with agent Scott Boras, we've all known this day was coming: Ells is in his last year before free agency, Boras has stated that he would do better on the open market, and team officials are joining them both in being awfully vague about whether anyone is particularly interested in an extension.

Players who sign on with Scott Boras are looking for a big payout when their turn comes, and Ellsbury is no exception. Sure, Ells is by all accounts a soft spoken, polite young man who plays the game hard and (when he's healthy, which admittedly hasn't been that often) very well, but at the end of the day, he's going to do what Boras tells him.

And because of past experience with Boras clients, we already know what Boras is going to do: he'll delay all talk of a possible extension until after the end of the season, then allow the bidding war to begin. We know that Boras is licking his chops, hoping that Ells will have a 2011 type season, so he can start measuring him for high-priced pinstripes.

Obviously, I hope that I'm wrong about this, but Boras has a well-established pattern. Perhaps I'm full of it, and Ben Cherington will call a press conference tomorrow with Ells, announcing a long contract extension - but I doubt it. The fit isn't right. The Red Sox don't like awarding long expensive deals to players who can't be healthy consistently (JD Drew notwithstanding), and Boras doesn't like to give up the chance for his clients to test the open waters of free agency.

So for my very first prediction of the 2013 season, I'm calling it right now: this is the last year that you'll see Jacoby Ellsbury in a Red Sox uniform. Enjoy the farewell tour and hope it's a good season, everyone, because we won't be seeing Ells in our dugout for much longer.

2013 Bill James Projections - Jacoby Ellsbury

2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI
2012: 74 games, .271 BA, .313 OBP, .370 SLG, 4 HR, 26 RBI
2013 projection: 152 games, .294 BA, .346 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 67 RBI

Looking at Jacoby Ellsbury's "games played" column on baseball-reference.com is like riding a roller coaster.  For the first few full years of his major league career, he played most of the season - and then came the 2010 Parade of Carnage, when broken ribs limited Ellsbury to just 18 games.  This was followed by a career season in 2011: Goldenboy played 158 games, was selected to the All Star Game, came in second in MVP voting, and claimed a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. But then 2012 rolled around, with a meager 74 games played.

This past season was, yet again, marred by injury.  Especially when compared to 2011, 2012 was a HUGE disappointment for Ellsbury.  I sometimes fall into the trap of still thinking about Jacoby Ellsbury as the fresh-faced rookie that stole a base and won America a free taco in the 2007 World Series. But Goldenboy will be thirty years old next season, his seventh in the majors, and we still don't know what to expect from him in any given year.

Jacoby Ellsbury will be a free agent next offseason, and his agent is the infamous Scott Boras.  I think we will probably see a banner year from Ells, since everyone involved knows that the Red Sox will not be interested in paying the Scott Boras Premium when the time comes, and they'll want to showcase his talents to the entire league.  

That being said, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 2011 was a one-time thing.  I don't think Ellsbury is a "face of the team, build a franchise around him" type player - partly because of the constant threat of injury. I think Bill James and his crew are right on: we'll see a resurgence from Ells, but not quite a return to the godliness of 2011.

Five-Minute Musings

I have a few minutes before class this morning, and thought I would post a quick rundown of recent events:

1.) The Oakland Atheltics have reportedly made a five-year, $64 million dollar offer to Adrian Beltre. According to the Globe's Nick Cafardo (as reported by Pete Abraham), the Sox are willing to go up to four years, $52 million. In fantasy land, Agent Scott Boras is claiming that the third baseman is worth five-years, ninety million dollars. So what is Beltre worth to the Red Sox? And what is being in a competitive, passionate city worth to Beltre? Last year, he turned down bigger money from the A's to come to the spotlight in Boston, but he was also looking to be showcased so he could get a big deal this year. Players don't hire Boras because team loyalty means a lot to them, so this could be interesting as it unfolds. Stay tuned.

2.) Tom Werner is looking to appease fans who were under the impression that the 2010 Sox were based on spare parts so he could fund his little soccer venture in England. [Pretend for a second that statement isn't ludicrous, that the Sox didn't have the second highest payroll in MLB last year, and that they didn't sign the biggest pitching free agent in the '09-'10 offseason. Theo said BRIDGE YEAR, so they obviously weren't trying.] He has gone on record as claiming the Sox will make a significant splash in the free agent market: “I think that we are going to sign, I won’t promise, but we’re going to sign a significant free agent. We are going to make a trade to improve ourselves,” Werner said. “I want to assure everybody that there is no bridge year here this year. [In] 2011, we’re committed to win.”

3.) The Red Sox were just honored by Major League Baseball for their charitable endeavors as an organization. From a release by MLB, via the Boston Globe Extra Bases blog: "Major League Baseball and Baseball Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig have named the Boston Red Sox as the inaugural recipients of the Commissioner's Award for Philanthropic Excellence, which was created to recognize the charitable and philanthropic efforts of an MLB Club." Obviously, the Red Sox encourage their players to both be active within the Red Sox Foundation, and to support their own charities, and it seems like that work is getting some recognition. The really cool part is that this comes just week after Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield received the Roberto Clemente Award. It makes this organization easy to support.

4.) Ron Gardenhire (Twins) was named the AL manager of the year yesterday (the Padres' Bud Black took home the honor for the senior circuit). I was holding out some hope for Tito, who placed fourth, and if the Sox could have scraped a playoff berth, I really think he would have made it. People around here are constantly screaming about "Fran-coma" and how terrible he is, and how they could do his job so much better. To those people I say: SHUT UP. Terry Francona led a bag of beleaguered major leaguers and spare minor league parts to 89 wins last season. Do you honestly think you would have done any better?

5.) I would like to point out that the offseason coverage by the team over at boston.com has been spectacular thus far. Of course, I have come to expect a certain degree of excellence from the Globe, but the amount of info that they're giving us on a daily basis is more than you could expect from any other team in any other market. In particular, I would like to extend a shout-out to Pete Abraham, who is constantly updating the Extra Bases blog, and also because he's a generally nice guy (last spring, I had to do a project on athletes as role models, and Pete Abe was nice enough to answer the email I sent him, asking for imput). So, thank you Mr. Abraham, and thank you to your fellow writers on the Sox beat: without you all, we'd be even more starved for baseball.

Adrian Beltre, Silver Slugger

Not that this is particularly surprising given the torrid year he enjoyed, but 2010 Sox third baseman (and current free agent) Adrian Beltre has been awarded the Silver Slugger for American League third basemen. Beltre hit .321, slugged .553, and belted 28 home runs, all while earning a league-best 49 doubles, and even legging out a couple of triples.

Not bad, Mr. Beltre... Not bad at all. Unfortunately for the Sox front office, as much as they'd like Beltre back, it seems as if agent Scott Boras is angling for a long-term contract. You all know as well as I do that Theo is reluctant to give players more years than he thinks they're worth - he'd much rather overpay for a shorter contract.

As frustrating as it can be to watch our free-agents walk year after year, Theo's strategy is a sound one. Within a few years we'll be treated to a first hand example of what happens when you hand out contracts with a shelf-life that exceeds the players' prime. Yessir, the Yankees core is finally aging, led by Captain Intangibles himself, and by 2013 New York will employ wayyyy too many aging superstars (except Mariano Rivera. Everyone knows androids are impervious to aging.). Personally, I can't wait.

But back to Beltre. I don't see him back next year. It's a shame, because he fits so well in Boston and at the hot corner in Fenway Park, but the fact is he'll get more money and more years if he goes elsewhere, and players don't hire Scott Boras if they're looking to take any sort of home-town discount.

But seriously... Who else can hit a home run - from one knee?!?

One thing you can probably count on is Beltre staying out of the Bronx; they're pretty set in the third-baseman department at the moment. If you asked me right now, I'd have to guess that Beltre will be on the West Coast next season. His family is still out there, and he's expressed an interest in playing out there in the past. I'm torn between wishing for his presence on an NL team so we don't have to get beaten by him, or wishing for him to land in the AL so that he can come back to Fenway, and we can all yell one last time: "YOOOOO ADRIAN!!!!!!"

But wherever he ends up, you can be sure that he'll get paid. And after the year he had for us in 2010, he most definitely deserves it.

D-Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury has played in exactly nine games for the big club this season. Yes, he has been injured. But he's rapidly getting a reputation as a "JD Drew" type player. In fact, Drew has missed just three games this season, but that's not the point: as a player, JD is viewed as "soft." He has a reputation for requesting time off for the slightest of ailments, and hangnail jokes are commonplace.

The perception in some circles is that agent Scott Boras is pulling the strings: fearful playing at less than 100% might hurt Ellsbury's numbers in an eventual arbitration hearing, Boras cautions him to take it slow.

Uncharacteristically for the organization, Dr. Thomas Gill spoke out about the situation: "It's simply not there," Gill said. "But whether it's there or not is not medically relevant. You treat it exactly the same."

The Red Sox have been more vocal than normal about their frustrations with the fragile Ellsbury, which is to say that they've actually let on that they're upset. Tito, who is famously tactful, has mentioned some concerns publicly, and the club sanctioned a "conference call with reporters to address what [Dr. Gill] called 'misconceptions.'"

This issue has divided Red Sox Nation. Essentially half the fanbase wants Ells to suck it up and get back on the field, while the other half is livid at the first half for insinuating that Golden Boy is less than perfect.

As for me...? I'm leaning toward the former: I don't want Ells to hurt it worse, but if no further structural damage is being risked (as Dr. Gill and Tito insinuated), it's time to put his teammates before his stats. The team needs him, even if he's only 60-80%. But that's just my opinion... feel free to share yours!


[All quotes in this post found on the Boston Globe Online]

Et tu, Scott?

When people ask me what I want to be when I grow up, I have two words for them:

Scott Boras.

Now, most people who would pose the above question have no idea who Boras is, so I have to explain it to them, and those who know him, loathe him. I understand the ire towards Boras, but you have to admit that he's damn good at his job.

Players hire Boras to get them the most lucrative contract possible, and he has a nearly foolproof strategy: shop the player around to as many teams as he can, drive the price sky-high, and then call Brian Cashman. As a fan of a team outside of the Bronx, watching this process year in and year out can be downright sickening, but it's undeniably effective.

The de facto owners of the Yankees, Hank and Hal Steinbrenner have raised greed and entitlement to an art form, and while dear old George was at least somewhat intimidating, Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum just come off as whiny. Boras understands the dynamic in New York, and he exploits it for the financial benefit of his clients and himself. You have to respect his cold efficiency.

I would love to be a baseball agent as successful as Mr. Boras: he's good at his job, and he apologizes to no one. However, there's one thing about Boras I simply cannot stand, and it's his propensity for creating needless drama with the things he says to the media. For instance, this gem from yesterday:

"Well, after this season, I would say that the Boston Red Sox had a chance to sign Mark Teixeira before the New York Yankees did. Because we gave them an offer. That's the best I can do for owners, when you give them a chance to sign a player. The player was earnest in coming here at the time and he presented them with an offer and they could have accepted it."

Mr. Boras, I'd like to call shenanigans on that statement. Is there anyone else who thinks that the "offer" he's referring to probably was about sixteen figures and included John Henry's kidney and Theo Epstein's firstborn child?

Awwww...

Seriously. The Yankees were always going to get the last call, because that's Boras' game: if New York can use his client in any conceivable way, he looks to them last. There's nothing wrong with that from a business standpoint - it works. But don't go around patronizing Sox ownership and fans, Scott. We know how you do things; we've seen it a million times. And you know what? It's just as nauseating as it is effective.

O Captain! My Captain!

According to the Boston Globe, Jason Varitek has requested a one-on-one meeting with Sox owner John Henry this weekend. Take that to mean that (A) Henry doesn't want to see Scott Boras right now or (B) Varitek is miffed at Bors for advising him to decline arbitration [therefore giving up $10-$12 million] or (C) both.

I think I'm going to go with (C). John Henry is not happy with Scott Boras right now, something else we can thank Mark Teixeira for. Henry made as much clear earlier today: when asked about his relationship with the agent, he sarcastically asked "What relationship?" and declined further comment.

.

The meeting will take place "tonight" near Varitek's off-season residence in the Atlanta area, and will undoubtedly be more productive with Boras' absence. Hopefully this meeting will accomplish something. I always pictured Varitek as a realist, so hopefully he knows his market value, even if his agent is publicly delusional [Jorge Posada money? Please.]. As such, the Captain must know that, at this point, in this off-season, the Red Sox are really the only team that can use him. I can't imagine any other teams paying Varitek more than the Sox will and giving up a first round draft pick.

.

This gives the Red Sox all the chips, which is their favorite way to "negotiate." With all the uncertainties [rehabbing players] the pitching staff has this year, it would be nice to have some continuity in the catching situation, and Varitek is unarguably adept at calling a game. Don't get me wrong, I think Jason Varitek is definitely on the downside of his career, but I also believe that his personal problems [he got divorced during the 2008 season] affected him more than he was willing to admit, and if nothing else, I doubt that he will get significantly worse in 2009.

Gag me:

OK, first of all: vomit.

Now that's out of my system... Is he serious? Really, does he think that anyone believes that his sordid history with the Red Sox had nothing to do with this move? All that nonsense about being closer to his family, most of whom live in Baltimore... maybe he wasn't aware that he actually could have signed for a similar amount of money to play in Baltimore?

Personally, I think Scott Boras (who you have to admire, even if you don't like him: when people ask me what I want to do with my life, I often tell them that I dream of being Scott Boras-but that's another story) used Teixeira's longstanding grudge against Boston in order to orchestrate this whole thing. The Red Sox uncharacteristically made it very clear that they coveted Teixeira; the Yankees love swooping in at the last minute and signing someone away from Boston; the incident between Teixeira and the Sox happened so long ago (almost TEN YEARS). Most people would be over it by now, especially considering that the perpetrator here, Dan Duquette, has long since been fired, but not Marky Mark.

This was the perfect way to stick it to Boston: not only were they used to drive up his price, but he got the ultimate satisfaction of signing with the team with the worst connotations for the Red Sox.

OK, yes, that was terrible. It was hard enough to take his signing with the Yankees, but another thing entirely to swallow all that sludge he spewed about the greatness of the Yankees. News flash: I didn't buy it when it was coming out of CC Sabathia's mouth (actions speak way louder than words in that case: it was pretty obvious that CC was waiting for someone-anyone-to come anywhere near the Yankee's offer. No one stepped up, the Yankees bid against themselves, and the rest is history.), and I don't buy it now. The only glimmer of truth that I heard in the whole thing was about his wife. She told him "I want you to be a Yankee." Sorry Leigh, but I heard that you simply didn't want to come to Boston, for whatever reason. Good for her: I'm pretty sure no one in Boston wants her there anyway (was it just me, or did she look like she was about twelve years old?).

All in all, it's fine. I - like most other Sox fans, I suspect - am going to love hating this man. In an ironic twist, Teixeira took Yankee's jersey #25, the same number as Mike Lowell, the man the Red Sox would probably have traded to make room for him. Sorry, Mark, but you're not fit to shine Mike Lowell's spikes. Lowell is the very definition of a consummate professional. There is no way he would hold a grudge against an organization for something that happened nearly a decade before. Heck, Lowell won't even hold a grudge against the Sox for shamelessly offering him as trade bait for months.

I hope Teixeira's been taking notes from Lowell on how to be a class act. He'll need them on April 24, during his first at-bat at Fenway Park. He'll probably get the fan reaction usually reserved for dear old Joba Chamberlain when he throws a heater at Youk's head. And his wife? The jeers directed at her will rival those normally hurled at A-Rod.

You know what? I can't wait.