Opening Day Thoughts

If you follow me on Twitter, you already know that I missed watching today's game live, because I was stuck in Port Authority and then on a bus from 11am-7pm.  Luckily, I was able to listen to the WEEI coverage via the MLB AtBat app, and then I watched the Sox in 2 replay on NESN when I finally made it home.

I love Opening Day. It's truly a clean slate - everything about last year is wiped away, and, as they say, hope springs eternal. It especially helps when the team can start off the year with a decisive win over their storied rivals.

It was pretty strange to watch a Red Sox/Yankees Opening Day sans David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez - and it just seemed plain wrong to see Kevin Youkilis, clean-shaven and pinstriped, scoring the first Yankees run of the year. But everything went according to plan for the Red Sox, who didn't trail once during the game.

On a personal note, I have Jon Lester on my fantasy team, but I never got to set my roster (I was computerless in New York and New Jersey all weekend), so I won't be getting any credit for his first win of the season. Since that was the only negative aspect of the day, I think I can get over it.

I'll love Youk forever

"I'll always be a Red Sock," Youkilis said. "To negate all the years I played for the Boston Red Sox, and all the tradition, you look at all the stuff I have piled up at my house and to say I'd just throw it out the window, it's not true." -[via the Boston.com Extra Bases blog]

I went to Seaworld Orlando today with the friend that I'm visiting, and I saw a gentleman walking around the park wearing a Kevin Youkilis Boston Red Sox away jersey. It was a strangely emotional moment for me, as a lifelong Kevin Youkilis fan - I've kept my various pieces of Youk attire, but I don't plan to wear them while he's a member of the Yankees.

I was sad when Youkilis got traded last summer, though I recognized that it was Middlebrooks' turn and probably in everyone's best interest. It's slightly more difficult to fins the words to describe my range of emotions about Youk signing with the Yankees this offseason. I understood why he went there: a one year deal at that kind of money and I would probably sign with the Yankees and never look back.

It is nice to hear Youkilis' assurance that he won't be forsaking his Red Sox legacy just because he's in pinstripes; he'll certainly have to contribute a lot right away for Yankees fans to do anything more than tolerate him. I know a lot of you out there in Red Sox Nation have practically disowned Youkilis, but I'll always keep a place for him in my heart - even though he's reportedly shaved his famous goatee and adjusted his iconic batting stance.

Boo Youk?

Kevin Youkilis and the New York Yankees have agreed on a one-year, $12 million deal.  Youk passed up two years/$18 million to head to Cleveland (and back to former Red Sox manager Terry Francona) to sign with the Bronx Bombers for one year - but a better chance at postseason play.

Kevin Youkilis hasn't played for Boston since June, but before he was traded to the White Sox he had played 953 games for the Red Sox over nine seasons, starting in the legendary 2004 season.  Youk gained fame with the publication of the book Moneyball which reported he was coveted by the obsessive A's GM Billy Beane, who had dubbed the then-minor leaguer "The Greek God of Walks."

Youkilis is Jewish, not Greek, but his on-base percentage was as advertised, and his power numbers consistently improved over his first few seasons in Boston until he was less of an on-base machine and more of a homerun-threat who could work the count.

In 2008, Dustin Pedroia won the American League MVP Award, but there were many who felt that Youk had outshone Pedey on the field - Youkilis finished third in voting for the award.

When Youk was dealt to Chicago this summer, I was pretty bummed. I wore my Kevin Youkilis shirt the day after the trade, because Youk has been among my favorite players for a long time, and I swore to always root for him.

And now, after that brief stint with the White Sox, Youkilis will head back east to the Evil Empire.  I've often said that Kevin Youkilis is the kind of player that you love having on your team, but find unbearable when he plays for your opponent. The way he takes every pitch personally is endearing when he's on your side, but exasperating otherwise - even teammate and enigma Manny Ramirez thought Youk often went too far, leading to a dugout altercation in 2008.  Personally, I'll be rooting for him to do well in New York - even as I hope the Yankees lose as often as possible.

Will Red Sox fans boo Kevin Youkilis when he returns to Fenway Park in pinstripes on Friday, July 19th? Even if they do decide to boo, will he even be able to tell the difference between such noises of derision and the admiring "YOUUUUKKKKK" he always heard when heading to the plate?

Kevin Youkilis: Dream Crusher

When I said I wished nothing but the best for Kevin Youkilis in his post- Red Sox career, I was hoping to see things play out more like Monday night than last night.  Monday saw Youk step to the plate to an emotional and well-deserved standing ovation from the Fenway Faithful, then promptly go 3-for-4 while scoring Chicago's only run in the Red Sox victory.

Last night, Jon Lester and the Red Sox were powerless to stop the bleeding, as Lester couldn't even make it five innings.  Youkilis had another successful night, hitting a three-run blast off of his former teammate - this time able to enjoy a win.

I will always love Kevin Youkilis: he was coming into his own as a Red Sox just as I was reaching maturity as a person and a Sox fan, and he plays the game the right way.  But is it really to much to ask that he go 0-for-5 after we cheer for him?  I'm perfectly happy to see him hit .500 against the rest of the AL (particularly the East), so long as he can temper that a bit when in Boston.

I know he's not the kind of player to let up for even a second, so I guess I'll have to have some confidence in the Red Sox pitching staff (something in short supply lately) to shut Youk and his new crew down tonight.

Missing You(k) Already

I've watched Kevin Youkilis' entire career in the Red Sox organization. I saw the kid with the funny batting stance playing third for the Portland Seadogs:

I read Moneyball where he gained national attention as Billy Beane's wet dream: the Greek God of Walks.  I watched him transform from an on-base machine to a power hitter and legitimate MVP contender (as much as I love Pedey, Youk might have deserved it more in 2008).  He earned a Gold Glove in 2007, and set a defensive record in 2008 (though it has since been broken) with 2,002 error-less fielding attempts.

And through it all, Youkilis was a Dirt Dog. He played the game with grit and hustle, and with some foresight of the new NESN marketing quip: every pitch, every play, every hit, every game matters.

It mattered so much to Youkilis that his teammates sometimes got annoyed at his overflowing passions and outbursts of anger when something went wrong.  We all remember the June 2008 game where Manny Ramirez, reportedly tired of Youk's helmet tossing and bat-slamming after every unsuccessful at-bat, actually took a swing at the then-first baseman, and the two had to be restrained by other teammates.

But the fans loved Youkilis for that very reason: he cared about every game the way we care about every game - viscerally, passionately, and whole-heartedly.  On the opposite end of fan scapegoats like JD Drew, who get in trouble for the lack of emotion, Youkilis was a hardnosed player who the fans could relate to.

As much popularity as players like Jacoby Ellsbury enjoy, they seem somewhat out of reach, like they're not quite real.  In addition to being a hugely talented multimillionaire, Ells is also an attractive Goldenboy, while Youkilis just seems so much more relatable. Though he's even wealthier than Ells, Youk wouldn't look out of place on a construction site, or at a family reunion - he seems down to earth despite enjoying successes most people never dream of.

I wore a Kevin Youkilis jersey to work today, in memory of the good times, and multiple people asked me about it. We were all on the same page: it was time for the Greek God of Walks-turned-All Star to bow out and make room for the next rookie sensation, but there was a sense of nostalgia in each short exchange.  The beginning of Youk's career in Boston coincided with the Reversal of the Curse, ushering in some of the best years in recent Red Sox memory, and he will always be inexorably tied to those memories.  I wish him nothing but the best over in Chicago - he deserves it.

Even though this will never look quite right.

Time to turn things around... or else.

Even with a big performance from Clay Buchholz last night to snap the losing streak, the Red Sox can't seem to keep their collective heads above water. Yes, there have been injuries to several key players, but it's mid-June now, and rumors are starting to fly about the fast-approaching trading deadline.

I can't remember the last time the Sox sent off a big piece without getting a major league ready contributor in return - but if the rumors are true, that's exactly what's likely to happen.

Doubtless you've been watching the log jam since Kevin Youkilis returned from the disabled list, forcing Bobby V. to shuffle the lineup to make sure Youk, Adrian Gonzalez, and upstart rookie Will Middlebrooks all see some playing time.  The result has been Gonzo taking a lot of turns in the outfield - and it's not as if he's terrible (he's certainly much better - and more comfortable - than Youk ever was out there), but it's kind of ridiculous to be playing your Gold Glove first baseman in the outfield on a regular basis.

Of course, Youkilis is a Gold Glove first baseman, too, but his natural position (like Middlebrooks') is third base.  And now, with interleague play, David Ortiz is in the mix as well. No one is getting the playing time they should be, and it's looking more and more like Kevin Youkilis' days with the Sox are numbered.

The biggest question now is where he'll land, and what the Red Sox will get in return.  My money is on some prospects (though some QUALITY prospects), especially if we don't turn things around in a big way, and soon.

Optimism rewarded!

Due to a series of unexpected events, I was able to catch the last four innings of today's game - I had thought I was going to miss the whole thing.  So after running back to my room after an ESPN info session at Career Services, I immediately turned on the TV and was pleased to see that the Sox were leading 4-1 in the sixth inning.

I did pretty well with my morning predictions: Beckett went out there and pitched his heart out, going eight innings (and it would have been nine if the Sox half of the eighth hadn't been so explosive) giving up a single run on one hit and one walk.

The lineup certainly rose to the occasion, as everyone but Cody Ross had at least one hit - and Ross had a sacrifice fly for an RBI. Kevin Youkilis in particular had a great day, going 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs, while Adrian Gonzalez continued his early success with a 3-for-5 day and an RBI.  Sadly, my only incorrect prediction was about Pedey: he didn't manage to hit a home run today, but he did beat out an infield hit once I started watching.

The funniest moment of the day had to be Kelly Shoppach's first career stolen base (above) which included a failed slide and then a flop.  I wondered at Shoppach's presence over Salty when I saw the lineup this morning, but obviously Bobby V. knew what he was doing when he put the lineup card together.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows today, as Jacoby Ellsbury left the game with a shoulder injury after going 2-for-3 with an RBI to start the game. Here's hoping Golden Boy makes a quick and full recovery.

When we know more about the extent of Ellsbury's injury, I'll post an update here - after his killer season last year, the Red Sox cannot afford to lose Ells long term.

Opening Day optimism

I'm guessing that most of you, like me, are on the redsox.com mailing list, and you also woke up to the above picture in your email.  It's a beautiful photo (and really just makes me want to sneak into Fenway in the early morning with a camera) to start off Opening Day - here's hoping at that time tomorrow the Sox will have kicked off a winning streak.

By chance, I was at the final home game of last season, and like most of September, the day ended in a loss (to the Orioles, no less).  At the time, I wasn't too worried, since there six games still to play and I figured they would clinch soon enough. I won't rehash it now, on the morning of a fresh start, but you all know how that worked out.

I know that there are mixed feelings about the movie Fever Pitch, but there's one scene from it in particular that encompasses how I feel today (and on all Home Openers): the main character's season tickets have arrived, and after he's embraced the delivery guy, he and his friends open the box, touching and smelling and caressing the tickets.  "A new season," says one of them with awe, "a clean slate." The main character smells his sheet of tickets and declares that "this smells like the year."

From all the way in Connecticut, this smells like the year. Soon enough we'll have forgotten this 1-5 start, the bullpen will shake out the kinks, and the field players will find their groove.  Opening Day is about unbridled optimism, and since I won't be able to watch this year (I have to commentate Trinity baseball this afternoon), I'm broadcasting my good feelings now.

I'm predicting Josh Beckett will go out there looking to prove himself after an abysmal start last week in Detroit, and pitch deep into the game.  The lineup will rise to the occasion of performing in front of the Fenway crowd, and those who have been struggling (I'm looking at you Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis) will get in in gear.

Sox take Opening Day, and for my final prediction, Dustin Pedroia goes yard - because that's just what he does on Opening Day.

Red Sox Photo Day Outtakes

As Mike Aviles says to open the video, "I love this part of the year:"



From Youkilis making fun of Pedroia's Alma mater (Arizona State), to Jon Lester proclaiming that he's not an English major, to Darnell McDonald claiming he can't read, this video is sure to have you laughing. And, in case you were wondering, Clay Buchholz is not a morning person.

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Infielders

I'm doing this a little differently from last year.  Since there is a new manager who will have his own new ideas about the makeup of the lineup, I won't even try to guess what it will be for 2012.  So there will be four projections posts: this one for infielders (and DH), one for outfielders, one for starting pitchers, and one for relief pitchers.

1st base, Adrian Gonzalez:
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI
2011: 159 games, .338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, 27 HR, 117 RBI
2012 projection: 160 games, .301 BA, 387 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 105 RBI

 Last year's projections were calculated by James and his team with the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing in San Diego's cavernous Petco Park for 81 games, so it only makes sense that he surpassed those numbers in the friendly confines of Fenway Park.  James predicts a precipitous drop off from last year to this one - but I don't think it will be quite so steep.


2nd base, Dustin Pedroia:
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI

James consistently underestimates Pedey.  I guess it was understandable for last year, since no one was sure how he would bounce back from his foot injury in 2010, but I think we know what to expect from Pedroia at this point.  If he's not doing well, or if the team isn't, Pedroia WILLS himself to do better. I don't put much stock in "intangibles," but if they exist, the Sox second baseman has them.


3rd base, Kevin Youkilis:
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
2011: 120 games, .258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 80 RBI
2012 projection: 135 games, .281 BA, .389 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 86 RBI

It's no secret that Youk had a rough 2011.  In fact, given his sports hernia and bursitis in his hip (requiring surgery), it's impressive that he managed to play in 120 games.  Given his injuries and the Red Sox collapse, it's easy to forget the fantastic first half that Youkilis had, even being named to the AL All-Star Team.  Assuming all went well this offseason, expect a rebound season for Youkilis.

Shortstop, Marco Scutaro:
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
2011: 113 games, .299 BA, .358 OBP, .423 SLG, 7 HR, 54 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .271 BA, .341 OBP, .378 SLG, 9 HR, 59 RBI

Though somewhat short of spectacular, Scutaro has been one of the better Red Sox shortstops in recent memory (not injury-riddled like the now-departed Jed Lowrie, nor error-prone as the abominable Julio Lugo).  He's been quite steady, both in the field and at the plate, and he'll likely continue that pattern.


Shortstop, Jose Iglesias:
2011: 10 games, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, 0 HR, 0 RBI
2012 projection: 50 games, .241 BA, .277 OBP, .277 SLG, 0 HR, 10 RBI

Everyone knows that this job is Iglesias' for the taking.  If he hits as James predicts, we'll see more of Scutaro for 2012 - if he exceeds these projections, we'll likely witness the shift away from Scuaro and into the foreseeable future. 

Catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI
2011: 103 games, .235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 16 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 95 games, .245 BA, .311 OBP, .426 SLG, 13 HR, 45 RBI

Salty's playing time will likely depend on how skillful Kelly Shoppach turns out  to be as a backup.  As one of the only players pulling his own weight in September, I have faith in Saltalamacchia's ability to hold up the mantle of head catcher and game-caller that Jason Varitek held for so long.


Catcher, Kelly Shoppach:
2011: 87 games, .176 BA, .278 OBP, .339 SLG, 11 HR, 22 RBI
2012 projection: 85 games, .227 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 11 HR, 31 RBI

As you might remember, Shoppach was drafted by the Red Sox originally, before spending time in Cleaveland and Tampa Bay.  He bats righthanded, and hits better against lefties than Salty, but given the power in the Sox lineup, his playing time will probably depend more on how well the pitchers like throwing to him.


Catcher, Ryan Lavarnway:
2011: 17 games, .231 BA, .302 OBP, .436 SLG, 2 HR, 8 RBI
2012 projection: 77 games, .275 BA,.351 OBP, .527 SLG, 13 HR, 41 RBI

Obviously, the Red Sox are not going to be carrying three catchers, and the projections were calculated before the move for Shoppach.  If Shoppach struggles mightily, and Lararnway is tearing it up in Pawtucket, we might see him sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, expect to see the Sox give him some more time to develop.


Utility infielder, Nick Punto:
2011: 63 games, .278 BA, .388 OBP, .421 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2012 projection: 99 games, .243 BA, .329 OBP, .315 SLG, 1 HR, 23 RBI

I don't know too much about Nick Punto, but it's unlikely that he'll get the 99 games of playing time James predicted when it was assumed he'd be playing for the Cards.  If we can get passable offense and defense from our utility guy, I'll be happy.

Utility infielder, Mike Aviles (thanks to Paul for the reminder!):
2011: 91 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, 7 HR, 39 RBI
2012 projection: 101 games, .279 BA, .311 OBP, .423 SLG,  8 HR, 38 RBI

As Paul said in the comments, if Youkilis can't hack it for whatever reason, we'll be seeing quite a bit of Aviles this season.  The numbers are more than satisfactory from a utility man - but James is predicting a lot of playing time for him.


Designated hitter, David Ortiz:
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

Though the Red Sox struggled mightily in April, Papi escaped his usual struggles last spring, and surpassed most of James' predictions for him - here's hoping he can do that again, even at age 36.

[Final note: players not with the Red Sox at the beginning of 2011 do not have their 2011 projection numbers, because I left the 2011 Bill James Handbook in my dorm room - the Sox projections were recovered from last year's projection post.]

No offense?

Not last night. The Red Sox lineup came through in a big way during last night's game against Jered Weaver and the Angels, scoring nine runs, six of them in the bottom of the seventh inning, to assure Clay Buchholz of his second win of the season.

The Red Sox were 11-for-36 on the game, with two walks and seven strikeouts, and they extended their prodigious winning streak to TWO GAMES.

All sarcasm aside, last night's game was a gem, complete with a grinding battle pitting Dustin Pedroia against Weaver to score the go-ahead run in the bottom of the fifth inning (essentially guaranteeing the win for Buchholz, as the Sox did not trail after the fifth).  Pedey fouled off nine pitches in a 13-pitch at bat, before shooting a single back up the middle to score Carl Crawford from third.

Pedroia is one of the only players I have ever seen who can literally WILL himself to win: to win at-bats, to win ballgames, and even to win honors like ROY or MVP.  The man clearly has a lot of talent, and as much as I make fun of "intangibles" in this space, Pedey might be the King of them (sorry, Jetes).

Pedroia also went on to walk in the seventh inning, and come around to score on Adrian Gonzalez's 3-RBI double (Youkilis would then double to score Gonzalez, and David Ortiz bashed his second homer, scoring Youk).

This team seems to be back on track, or at least headed that way, as Adrian Gonzalez has 18 RBIs on the season, and Carl Crawford is 4-for-8 in May - hopefully a glimmer of things to come.  Now, the pitching needs to get back on a roll, perhaps jump-started by Clay Buchholz's performance last night. Despite putting ten men on base on eight hits and two walks in 6.2 innings, Buch gave up just two runs - pulling a "quality start" out of a start that was slightly less than quality.

I was concerned last night about Buch, since he was going against the previously 6-0, .99 ERA Jered Weaver, but, like the day before, my worries were for naught.  Tonight the Sox have Jon Lester facing off against Dan Haren - I don't think I should worry too much, but if this team has taught me anything, it's that games aren't played on paper.

10 minute musings [Live from Delhi!]

A free morning for me = a blog update for you:


1. Indian cricket fans are just as crazy as Red Sox Nation. I know I said in the last post that the match I went to was poorly attended - and it was. However, it was the West Indies playing the Netherlands, in Delhi, so it wasn't surprising that there weren't too many Dutch or West Indian fans in attendance... it's sort of a long trip from Europe or the Caribbean. There were lots of India fans there, chanting "IN-DIA! IN-DIA!" and it sort of reminded me of Red Sox fans chanting "Yankees suck!" while we're playing the Blue Jays.

2. I'm very heartened by David Ortiz's spring thus far. I know it's silly to count spring performances as indicators of what's to come, since many players have torn up Spring Training only to flop over the course of the season, and vice versa. But it still seems like a good sign that he's swinging the bat well, especially given how lost he looked in the opening months of 2009 and 2010. Here's hoping we skip the struggle this year - though if Papi falters, we have a few more big bats to fall back on.

3. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez seem to be adjusting well. Though it's possible that Crawford is still creeped out by the whole private investigator/due diligence/much ado about nothing fiasco of a few weeks back, he seems to be at home with the rest of his teammates thus far. Quick to assure the media that no, he and Jacoby Ellsbury are NOT in competition, that they'll be great TOGETHER, Crawford is a team player (who wouldn't bet against himself in a footrace). Gonzalez is ahead of his schedule for recovery after last season's shoulder surgery, but in his case I think no news is good news... I can't wait to see them both in a game.

4. The Lester-Buchholz show is back - hopefully with some more reinforcements. Jon Lester is giving a strong showing so far this spring, and Clay Buchholz is determined to replicate (or surpass) his last season's results. Besides the little hiccup when Josh Beckett got nailed in the head shagging fly balls, the pitching staff looks to be gearing up for a strong season. They have a lot to prove after last year's poor performances - and they know it. Here's hoping they're up to the challenge.

5. I very much admire Jed Lowrie. This is a bit off-topic, since it's hardly baseball-related, but Lowrie is doggedly completing the last few requirements for his degree in political science from Stanford. Lowrie left in 2005 to play baseball, and though it would be easy to decide that he could go back when his playing career is over, he's opting to get it done now, even as he's fighting for playing time in a camp full of All-Stars. Full disclosure: one of my majors is poli-sci, so I have a soft spot for fellow students of politics.

6. I don't buy the whole "Yankees are the underdogs" thing. No, the Yankees did not have the high-profile acquisitions that the Sox did this offseason, but they are NEVER the underdogs. All you need to do is read their lineup to understand that, and though they are most definitely getting old, they are also a roster full of superstars. Add to that the ever-present potential for Brian Cashman to go out and make a big splash with Yankee dollars and prospects, and I'll most definitely be keeping an eye on the Bronx Bombers this season (hopefully in the rear-view mirror).

7. The kids are alright. Okay, so I didn't much like that movie, but the Sox prospects are performing well this spring. Though Lars Anderson is most likely trade bait, and Felix Doubront is destined for the bullpen for the time being, I'm always excited to see some young kids do well. Jose Iglesias is making me long for 2012 despite the enormous potential for this season's squad. According to more than a few people, he has the potential to be a star AND the solution to the revolving door at shortstop.

8. I'm [more than] slightly concerned about Daisuke Matsuzaka. Hardly groundbreaking news, but Matsuzaka's spring has been less than inspiring, and he's as much of an enigma as ever. Luckily, no one is counting on him to be anything more than a serviceable fifth starter - hopefully he can live up to that, at least.

9. No news is good news on Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. I was always a believer in the Sox last season, but when Pedey and Youk were officially down for the count I started to lose hope. Both are back for 2011 with no limitations, and we haven't heard much from them, which to me must mean that they are going to be A-OK - hopefully that's the case.

10. I'm both excited for and dreading April 1st. I'm going to be in Dakar, Senegal when the Red Sox open up their season against the Texas Rangers, and internet there is a great unknown. If I have a fast, reliable connection (and time - unlikely, but I'll try to make some) I'm going to buy MLB.tv and try to watch as many games as possible. If not, I'll be reliant on sporadic emails and access to internet cafes. Here's hoping it's the former!

[All factual info in this post was gathered from boston.com - fantastic coverge, especially for a baseball-starved student stranded in Delhi, India.]

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Lineup

I know, I know, this is what you've all been waiting for - and I have kept you waiting. In my defense, had I done this any sooner, I wouldn't have been able to include Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford, and their presence certainly changes things in a big way. Two weeks ago, I presented the Bill James projections for the rotation (58-48 from the front five), and it's high time I did the same for the lineup. Keep in mind, this batting order is just my guess - I'm sure it will change based on who the other team has pitching, who needs rest, and how everyone is doing, so take it with a grain of salt.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury: 2010: 18 games, .192 BA, .241 OBP, .244 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI

If Goldenboy lives up to these numbers, I promise to stop calling him D-Ellsbury, and maybe even become a fan. In all seriousness, you could ask for more form a leadoff hitter, but it would be pretty demanding. I could definitely live with this line from Ells.

SECOND BASE:Dustin Pedroia: 2010: 75 games, .288 BA, .367 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HR, 41 RBI
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI

Hubby is expected to be back to his old voracious, impressive, and loudmouth self in 2011, after a season that was a wash due to injury. Pedey hits best when he's batting second, and he seems to like it, so I expect Tito to keep him there.
LEFT FIELD:Carl Crawford: 2010: 154 games, .307 BA, .356 OBP, .495 SLG, 19 HR, 90 RBI
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI

Let's deal with the elephant in the room first: is Crawford worth $20+ million a year? Probably not, but I'm thrilled he's coming to Boston at any cost. I REALLY wish he was willing to bat leadoff, but apparently he hates it, and Tito's not one to go against a player's wishes, but he'll definitely be somewhere near the top. His numbers might be slightly better at Fenway than the Trop, but the difference won't be anything crazy.

THIRD BASE:Kevin Youkilis: 2010: 102 games, .307 BA, .411 OBP, .564 SLG, 19 HR, 62 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Kevin Youkilis is under-appreciated by this fanbase - and that's hard to do. He's wildly consistent, and his willingness and ability to slide across the diamond to third base next year is huge.
FIRST BASE:Adrian Gonzalez: 2010: 160 games, .298 BA, .393 OBP, .511 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Keep in mind that Gonzo's numbers are likely to improve due to the Fenway effect. He spent last season playing in Petco Park, where doubles go to die, but even if we only (ONLY!) get the numbers predicted by James, I'll be happy.

DESIGNATED HITTER:David Ortiz: 2010: 145 games, .270 BA, .370 OBP, .529 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

Expect the usual from Papi: he'll struggle mightily in April, and then find his stroke sometime in May, just as the howling about his $12.5 million salary reaches fever pitch. In the end, he'll produce what we've come to expect from him, which isn't too shabby when you really look at it.

RIGHT FIELD: JD Drew: 2010: 139 games, .255 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 22 HR, 68 RBI
2011 projection: 145 games, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .460 SLG, 22 HR, 77 RBI

Mike Cameron: 2010: 48 games, .259 BA, .328 OBP, .401 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI
2011 projection: 121 games, .239 BA, .327 OBP, .425 SLG, 18 HR, 58 RBI

Because the outfield is so lefty-heavy, I expect Cameron to get more than enough playing time. I'm coupling him with Drew for the purpose of these projections simply because Drew tends to miss significant time with injuries each year. On the other hand, it is a contract year for Drew, so maybe he'll surprise us.
SHORTSTOP:Marco Scutaro: 2010: 150 games, .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Jed Lowrie: 2010: 55 games, .287 BA, .381 OBP, .526 SLG, 9 HR, 24 RBI
2011 projection: 144 games, .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Either James is predicting that Lowrie will be a utility guy and get a lot of games at other positions, or he's guessing one of these two will be traded. Either way, both players have respectable lines - though Lowrie's are a bit better across the board. If Lowrie can manage to keep himself healthy (I know that's a big "if" given the history) he'll probably play more, but let's face it: they're both just place-holders until Jose Iglesias is ready.
CATCHER:Jason Varitek: 2010: 39 games, .232 BA, .293 OBP, .473 SLG, 7 HR, 16 RBI
2011 projection: 72 games, .228 BA, .324 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2010: 12 games, .167 BA, .333 OBP, .292 SLG, 0 HR, 2 RBI
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI

Not the best thing you've ever seen, but if Salty can come into his own defensively while Tek shows him the ropes, I think we can deal with this line. One more note: Salty hits righthanders better, while Tek is pretty good against lefties - I think that's what we'll see.


The very fact that I can plausibly design a lineup that has David Ortiz hitting sixth and JD Drew seventh makes me very excited. I'm sure Tito will figure things out, and his lineup will be fantastic - if we can just keep healthy (PLEASE?!?) this should be a fantastic team to watch.

Kevin Youkilis talks 2010 and beyond

"I try to be unique."

Gee, thanks.

The 2010 Parade of Carnage

I wasn't happy after last night's joke of a game. However, neither did I feel the overpowering urge to scream and storm and throw things that a late-season loss to a divisional rival usually brings. When the last out was made, all I felt was a bitter sort of resignation - for all intents and purposes, this team was down and out long ago, and somehow they clung to hope far longer than they had any right to under the circumstances.

The Boston Red Sox are currently nine games behind the Yankees for the AL East title, and 7.5 behind the Rays in the Wild Card race. There are just 23 games left in the 2010 season, and 11 of those are against legitimate playoff contenders... Once, the Red Sox would have counted themselves among such fighters, but no longer. The 2010 Parade of Carnage dashed our collective playoff hopes long before we were ready to admit defeat. (And to be honest, I won't be ready to throw in the towel until the math says I have no choice.)

I could go through and list all of the injuries, player by player, but it's been done. Instead, I will SHOW how the injuries piled up, through screengrabs from some reputable Red Sox websites:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

On July 11th, the Sox had a whopping eleven players on the disabled list (plus Junichi Tazawa, who was hurt in Spring Training). Since then, one has been traded (MDC, to the Rockies), one released (Jeremy Hermida), two are gone for the season (Pedroia and Ellsbury), six are back on the roster and producing some semblance of good baseball, and one (Josh Beckett) is stinking up the joint, despite his apparent "health."

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

On August 5th, we recieved word that Boston's most consistant hitter would be out for the season after a freak accident in the batter's box that would require him to undergo thumb surgery. At the time, few realized what a crushing blow this was, as several players were supposed to be on their way back, but Youk's absence has hurt us both on the scoreboard and in the field.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Within twenty minutes on August 18th, we were informed that two-thirds of our starting outfield would be AWOL until next Spring. Cameron's loss was somewhat glossed over because his stats left a lot to be desired this season, but keep in mind he was battling a severe sports hernia for much of the campaign, and never really got into a groove. Ellsbury, of course, is the type of dynamic player who really might have made a difference in some of this season's close games.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Then the most crushing blow of all: despite having returned for two games, Dustin Pedroia's foot was not healing, and so he would be lost for 2010. Besides being an excellent player, Pedey is the heart and soul of that clubhouse - the Sox couldn't be out of it until he SAID they were out of it... and Pedey doesn't admit defeat.

And so by today, the Sox DL looks like this:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

Fewer players on the list, but none of them are walking through that door. Of the Opening Day Starters, four of nine are on that list. We've lost three Gold Glovers and the reigning stolen base champ; three All-Stars, and three former World Series winners. The worth of these four players absolutely cannot be overestimated.

If you look over the total missing players for the year, things get even more bleak: of the nine players on the field for the first pitch of 2010, six have spent at least 15 days on the disabled list. Shockingly, the only outfielder to stay healthy was JD Drew. Yes, JD Drew was the Boston outfield's version of Iron Man.

The ridiculous spate of injuries made writing the lineup card a daily adventure for Terry Francona...

(via baseball-reference.com; click to enlarge)

This is ridiculous. The Sox couldn't even be healthy enough to have seven games with the same lineup. SEVEN!

This team put up a hell of a fight - guys most of us had never heard of this time last year made real contributions, but in the end it doesn't seem to be enough. And for those of you ripping Theo for not getting reinforcements before the trade deadline, where was he supposed to get players of such pedigree? And most of them were supposed to come back; if they had in fact been healthy, where do you put the new additions?

No, you can't blame Theo, or Tito, or even the players. You can blame sheer dumb luck, and playing in a division with two of the best teams in baseball (and indisputably the one richest). Some of you are too young to remember that the Sox were not always perennial contenders (I'm on the cusp of that one), so let me remind you of the time-tested phrase of fanbases past: "Wait til next year."

Do you appreciate me NOW?!?

I thought we'd weathered the storm. Dustin Pedroia was out for an extended period with a broken foot, and for me that's top 3 WORST NEWS EVER. Unfortunately, just when we were all thinking that things couldn't possibly be worse, the baseball gods decided to piss all over our feeble dreams.

Kevin Youkilis will undergo season-ending surgery on his right thumb tomorrow, after tearing his abductor muscle. What did we do to get the universe so angry at us?!?

Say it ain't so, Youk!

This is a tough blow. Kevin Youkilis was snubbed by Joe Girardi for the All-Star Game, but his numbers have been more than All-Star worthy, batting .307 with a .975 OPS, 62 RBIs, and 19 homers in 102 games.

Youkilis is easily on the same playing field as the Mark Teixeiras, Justin Morneaus, and even Albert Pujols's of the game in several statistical areas, and yet he's rarely or never mentioned in the same breath as these players.

I'm sure a lot of this bias is simply aesthetic judgment: Youkilis has an unconventional stance, his body type is not that of the traditional star, and his goatee, while impressive, is not the type of facial hair associated with a golden boy. This is such a shame, as Youkilis is truly among the elite first basemen in the game, and, if given the chance, could probably be among the best across the diamond at the hot corner.

Youkilis is a sweaty, sweaty man... but he's also one of the best players in the American League.

Once dubbed "the Greek God of Walks" by Oakland A's GM Billy Beane, Youkilis has certainly branched out. The once-chubby 8th rounder with the funny swing and excellent sense of the strike zone has become a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat, and yet he's consistently overlooked, even in baseball-crazy Boston.

In 2008, there were some fans and members of the media that argued for Youkilis to get the AL MVP Award over teammate Dustin Pedroia, and though it pains me to admit it, they had a point. Pedroia's appearance as a scrappy fighter who succeeds at the major league level on sheer grit and attitude certainly helped him, but the same description could easily be applied to Youkilis. The Globe's Jackie MacMullan summed it up well: "He does not look like an MVP candidate; more a refrigerator repairman, a butcher, the man selling hammers behind the counter at the True Value hardware store."

Pedey, of course, was the 2008 MVP, while Youk took second place.

Youk went undrafted out of high school, and was left out again after his junior year at the University of Cincinnati - despite being first team All Conference USA and second team All-American - mostly because of his strange swing and stout build. Thankfully, the Red Sox took a chance on him in 2001.

In the years since, Kevin Youkilis has been so consistent that no one seems to notice what he brings to the team every day. A Gold Glover at first, and arguably as quick with the leather when Tito slides him across the diamond, Youkilis is not prone to streaks with the bat, but just plods along, ending with a batting average around .300, with nearly 100 RBIs and about 25 home runs each year.

And yet, there are few accolades for the sweaty gamer. The local press might give him a pat on the back once in a while, but he is all but ignored nationally, which is an oversight that borders on criminal. Perhaps his absence will teach Red Sox fans to appreciate him more, and finally show the national media machines what he truly means to this team.

I'm sure his teammates miss him already... I know I do.

All hail Kevin Youkilis!

Kevin Youkilis is an amazingly effective ballplayer. He has impressive stats, year after year, and yet he's criminally overlooked. Last night Youkilis almost singlehandedly won the game for the Red Sox, driving in the tying run in the bottom of the ninth off of Cliff Lee, and then driving in the winning run in the bottom of the eleventh with a sacrifice fly to deep center field.

Of all the games in this series, last night's was the one I was ready to concede: Cliff Lee is anything but easy to beat, and he had the added motivation of wanting to win his first start in a Rangers uniform. Lee came all too close, getting one out away from a complete game victory when he was thwarted by Youkilis.

Youk often comes through in the clutch, but he's so consistently good that no one seems to notice when he's great. Famously snubbed for this year's All-Star Game, Youkilis shrugged it off, though Red Sox Nation was ready to back him up if indignation was the path he chose; causing a stir has never been his style.

Fiercely competitive (though quieter about it than some of his teammates), Youkilis just wants the Red Sox to win games, and he does everything he can to make sure that happens as often as possible. Every at-bat is a battle, just as every defensive chance is life-or-death, and more often than not, Youkilis comes through.

Here's hoping the dramatic win from last night spurs the Sox to even greater heights (a win streak would be nice) so they can stay alive until some reinforcements arrive.

Hey now, you're an All-Star

When I saw the list of starters for the 2010 All-Star Game, I was disappointed, but not surprised. I've been following the vote, and it's been a popularity contest as usual. Of course, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Evan Longoria, and Ichiro Suzuki are all deserving, but I'm so OVER the Derek Jeter Admiration Tour I could scream.

The list of reserves was much more to my liking, as it included six Red Sox players, all of whom are extremely deserving of the nod, in my humble opinion. Of course, Dustin Pedroia and Clay Buchholz will not be able to play on July 13, as they'll both be on the disabled list, but my guess is that they'll both make the trip.

Other Red Sox include David Ortiz, Jon Lester, Victor Martinez, and Adrian Beltre, with Kevin Youkilis an option for the "Final Vote" fan selection. Youk's competition for this roster spot is pretty stiff: the Yankees' Nick Swisher currently leads the voting.

Honestly, I don't mind Nick Swisher. He has an engaging and fun personality, and if he didn't play in pinstripes I might even like him. But this is war. The Yanks already have six players, including two starters, in the ASG, and I want the Sox to have more. Also, Youkilis has been unbelievable this season. It's a testament to how incredibly consistent Youk has been that his .299 batting average, .416 OBP, and 17 home runs haven't stood out more.

The Greek God of Walks has gotten himself some versatility.

[In contrast, Swisher has a .293 BA, .373 OBP, and 13 home runs. It's ironic that both Youkilis and Swisher were once highly coveted by the GM of the Oakland A's, Billy Beane. Beane's obsession with the two is well-documented in the best-selling book, Moneyball.]

Kevin Youkilis deserves to go to Anaheim. He's overlooked entirely too often, even in a place as baseball-crazy as Boston. There's no limit to how many times you can vote, so vote often, and VOTE YOUK!

2010 ASG: A Middle School Popularity Contest

Click to enlarge

According to MLB.com, these are the leaders for the 2010 All Star Game in the American League. I didn't include the outfield list because (A) no Red Sox player is in the top 15, and (B) no Red Sox outfielder has played at an All Star level so far this season anyway.

But there is a reason for this post: to encourage you to vote! As a political science major, I am a major believer in the old adage that every vote counts... and as a realist and baseball fan, I use the email addresses of everyone I know to vote for the All Star Game.

Before you accuse me of being a shameless homer (which, at times, I am), let me just say that I'm not going to tell you to vote across the board for Red Sox stars. At many positions, the Sox starters just don't deserve it this year (although I would be surprised if Jonny Lester wasn't selected, but pitchers are different). However, the epitome of an undeserving leader is the Yankees' Mark Teixeira.

Another strikeout for Teix...

Teix is hitting an abysmal .221 thus far, bad even for the notoriously slow starter, and though he's known as an on-base guy, his OBP is just .338. For comparison's sake, the #2 vote getter at first is the Twins' Justin Morneau, who's hitting a league-best .377 with 11 HRs (3 more than Teix). Boston's own Kevin Youkilis is third, and he's hitting .298 with 10 HRs, and an OBP of .445. Youk has scored more runs (45) than anyone else in baseball, and he's also drawn the most walks (42).

I'll just concede Jeter's start right now, even though he's not nearly the best SS in the AL, or even in that top 5 listing. The ASG is a popularity contest, and always has been, which is why Dustin Pedroia still retains second place among second basemen, despite a .255 BA (though he has just as many homers as one Mark Teixeira).

Obviously, Joe Mauer will start behind the plate, and he absolutely deserves it. It's looking more and more like Evan Longoria will be at the hot-corner, and I can definitely get behind anything that knocks A*Rod down a notch or two. The outfield will, as always, include Ichiro Suzuki (the secret ninja).

He's also secretly related to Spiderman.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm pushing for YOUK to break through... or at least Morneau. Because if Mark Teixeira wins the starting spot for AL first baseman, it'll be the biggest popularity contest/travesty since a middle school class president election. So get out there and VOTE, Red Sox Nation!

Five Minute Musings

The theme for this edition of Five Minute Musings is "Things I loved last night" (yes, yes... "That's what she said").

1. Starting pitching: Though we had $68 million dollar man Josh Beckett going for us, I had essentially conceded the game before it started, due to the fact that the Royals had Mr. Cy Young himself, Zack Greinke, warming up in the next bullpen. Despite Don and Jerry's stat that Greinke gave up just two runs all season in the fifth inning last year, he gave up back to back homers to, of all people, Jeremy Hermida and Jason Varitek. And speaking of...


2. Bench players: Honestly, when I saw the lineup included Varitek, Hermida, and Lowell, it looked to me like Tito was conceding the game, as well. However, all three men acquitted themselves admirably. Hermida bashed his first ever homer in a Sox uniform, to tie the game in the fifth inning, while the much maligned Captain homered TWICE, including the initial go-ahead run, and Lowell went 1-for-4 with some plays in the field.

3. The Sox bullpen: After meltdowns in the last few games, the bullpen crew finally got back on track, as Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez each pitched a scoreless inning of relief last night. I have to admit, I was thisclose to writing a post bashing the bullpen yesterday afternoon. I'm glad I abstained.


4. MORE home runs: Kevin Youkilis notched his first homer of the young season, while Dustin Pedroia went yard for the first time since the Opener. Youk's homer led off the eighth inning, while Pedey's came in the ninth, with Ellsbury on base. Pedroia's was particularly impressive, as it came after he was nailed by a Greinke fastball in the fifth inning.

5. The Royals' bullpen: This might sound mean, but I LOVE the sight of someone warming for the Royals (with the possible exception of closer Soria). I Tweeted the following thought during Friday's contest: "I love the Royals bullpen. This is beyond infatuation. This is BEYOND BASEBALL." Yes, it's a bad play on the MLB ads, but it's true all the same. Let's see if we can get back into that pen this afternoon, shall we?