2015 Bill James Projection: Rick Porcello

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2010: 10-12, 27 starts, 162.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 38 BB, 84 SO
2011 projection: 10-11, 29 starts, 188 IP, 4.21 ERA, 52 BB, 102 SO
2011: 14-9, 31 starts, 182 IP, 4.75 ERA, 46 BB, 104 SO
2012 projection: 10-11, 31 starts, 190 IP, 4.22 ERA, 49 BB, 105 SO
2012: 10-12, 31 starts, 176.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 44 BB, 107 SO
2013 projection: 9-11, 31 starts, 178 IP, 4.50 ERA, 45 BB, 102 SO
2013: 13-8, 29 starts, 177 IP, 4.32 ERA, 42 BB, 142 SO
2014 projection: 9-11, 30 starts, 186 IP, 4.31 ERA, 45 BB, 117 SO
2014: 15-13, 31 starts, 204.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 41 BB, 129 SO
2015 projection: 11-13, 32 starts, 209 IP, 4.00 ERA, 45 BB, 132 SO

It's curious to me that Bill James and his team project Rick Porcello's ERA will go up significantly next season, considering he's consistently improved in that area every season since 2010.

Porcello is a member of the much-debated and sometimes-maligned 2015 Red Sox rotation. The group is often referred to as a staff of number 3 starters, but I think that's unfair. Is Rick Porcello a bona fide ace? Absolutely not [yet]. But he could certainly be a solid number two.

Rick Porcello was an important member of the vaunted Detroit Tigers staff for the last few seasons, and while his contributions were sometimes forgotten behind those of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, there were times when Porcello outperformed them both.

All of this, plus the fact that Porcello is just 26 years old, makes him a fantastic addition to the Red Sox. The downside is that he's a year out from free agency, and apparently uninterested in discussing an extension.

But with a potential payday on the horizon, the Red Sox will be getting a young, talented pitcher with an incredibly large incentive for giving the 2015 season everything he has in the tank.

I think James' projections for Porcello are underestimating him. Despite the naysayers and the "We should have signed Shields" whiners, I expect big things from Porcello this season.

2014 Bill James Projections - John Lackey

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2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA, 72 BB, 156 SO

2011 projection: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
2011: 12-12, 28 starts, 160 IP, 6.41 ERA, 56 BB, 108 SO
2012: [No stats; missed entire year recovering from Tommy John surgery]
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 209 IP, 4.04 ERA, 59 BB, 163 SO
2014: 10-13, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 40 BB, 161 SO

2014 projections: 11-11, 29 starts, 199 IP, 3.93 ERA, 46 BB, 155 SO

This past season was exceptionally redemptive for John Lackey. He started 2013 as one of Boston's most hated athletes and transformed himself into a pitcher Red Sox fans trusted in the biggest situations. 

John Lackey handily outpitched FOX Sports' darling Justin Verlander in the ALCS, then won the clinching game of the World Series, and he did it with very little fanfare.

When Lackey came off the mound in Toronto last April clutching his arm, no one could have predicted how his season would end: making history by becoming the first starting pitcher in major league history to win the clinching game of the World Series with two separate teams.

Even with the egregious lack of run support this season, Lackey's numbers were impressive, and James and his team predict another productive season from the once-reviled right hander.

John Lackey has the ball - and fans' confidence

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This time last year, no one could have imagined the scenario Red Sox fans are facing tonight. Not only are the Red Sox up 1-0 in the World Series (a pipe dream all on its own), but John Lackey is starting, and he has the full confidence of Red Sox Nation.

After the fallout from 2011's collapse, John Lackey was basically the poster boy for all the that plagued the Sox. Fans saw him as surly, lazy, and overpaid. The announcement that he would miss all of 2012 for Tommy John surgery was met with jeers rather than sympathy.

This season, he set out to turn his image around, and succeeded with flying colors. Despite the misleading 10-13 record, Lackey's ERA was a solid 3.52, his lowest since coming to Boston, and the third lowest of his eleven-year career. He struck out 161 players, while walking just 40.

If it's possible, he's been even more impressive this postseason, taking Game 2 of the ALDS against David Price and the Rays, and then outdueling Justin Verlander in Game 3 of the ALCS.

Indeed, Lackey's Game 3 start is probably the most underrated performance of the postseason - FOX was too busy drooling over Verlander to note the fact that John Lackey out-pitched him, shutting out that vaunted Tigers lineup for six and two-thirds innings.

Lackey's home-away splits are well documented, and with Clay Buchholz dealing with shoulder tightness, it makes sense for Lackey to start Game 2 tonight.

Via Baseball-Reference

I don't for a second believe the Cardinals will keep playing like they played last night. The Red Sox will have to battle going forward - but Lackey is the guy I want on the mound tonight.

The John Lackey Redemption Tour Rolls On

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One of the great ironies of last night's game is that it was nearly business as usual for starting pitcher John Lackey: he pitched a great start, and had the misfortune to be sharing the mound with one of the game's premier hurlers.

Thankfully, last night's game did not include the total dearth of run support Lackey tolerated in the regular season. Sure, the Red Sox scored just a single run, but it was enough as Lackey made it through more than six innings, giving up no runs on four hits and eight strikeouts - with just 97 pitches.

In the past, Lackey's tendency to wear his emotions on his sleeve has gotten him into trouble. He would grimace when his teammates botched a play, and shout when the umpire's call didn't go the way he wanted. Last night was no different in terms of transparent passion, but the context was much more positive.

It was obvious that Lackey didn't want to give up the ball in the seventh inning. It was just as obvious that he sincerely believed in the relievers coming behind him, and that there was no consideration of escaping the dugout for beer or chicken after his departure.

It's taken this miraculous season for most Red Sox fans to really root for John Lackey. Many of us saw him as overpaid and under-motivated, and Red Sox Nation certainly knows how to hold a grudge. But Lackey's teammates never had any such qualms, as the big righthander is often cited as one of the best and most supportive personalities in the clubhouse.

I've never been one of those people who thinks great personality and chemistry is a replacement for talent, and there's no question that the 2013 Red Sox have made it this far because they are excellent baseball players. But bad vibes in the clubhouse can sabotage talented clubs, as selfishness and prioritizing personal goals take over the culture.

There was never any danger of that happening to this team. The two biggest stars on the club, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, are exactly the hardworking personable types you want your young players emulating. The returning players had something to prove, and the new players signed on to a philosophy of team and winning first.

John Lackey, despite his less than impressive W-L record, has been part of that cultural shift. Last night, John Lackey outdueled Justin Verlander, and earned the win in Game 3 of the ALCS. You can bet he'll readily credit his teammates for grinding out at-bats and holding the lead upon his departure, just as surely as they would point to him for an incredible pitching performance.

I'm betting on Lester

Lester will target the strikezone just like he targeted the deer/boar/whatever on this hunting trip.

After two fantastic starts that sadly ended in Red Sox losses, Jon Lester will take the mound tonight at friendly Fenway, looking for his first win of 2012.  Meanwhile, the 2011 American League Champion Rangers will trot out Colby Lewis, who has a win and a no-decision so far this season.

You all know my opinion of the "win" statistic: it's kind of like the cubic zirconia of baseball stats, shiny, pretty, but mostly worthless.  A lot of wins look nice, but since you can be charged for a loss while giving up one earned run in nine innings (or an unearned run, for that matter), and earn a win after giving up fifteen runs in five, wins and losses aren't a great way to test a pitcher's caliber.

That being said, Colby Lewis is a talented pitcher, with 15 strikeouts and a sparkling 1.42 ERA so far this season (stats accrued against the White Sox and Mariners, but still impressive). Last year Lewis helped to anchor a pennant winning rotation after the departure of Cliff Lee (with the help of new-Angel CJ Wilson).  However, Lewis does have a history of struggling against the Red Sox, with just 2 wins and three losses with an ERA of 5.01 in his career against Boston.

On the other hand, Lester's one loss and 2.40 ERA  so far this season come at the hands of the Tigers (against AL Cy Young and MVP winner Justin Verlander, no less) and the up-and-coming Blue Jays.  Over the course of his career, Jon Lester has a 3-1 record with a 3.48 ERA against the Rangers.

Add to these statistics the fact that Lester has been pretty dominating so far this season - even if the number in the "win" column doesn't back that up.  I also think it's safe to say that Lester's teammates are itching to get him a win after failing to do so in Detroit and Toronto.  Lester is a popular - if reserved - man in the clubhouse, and it's clear his teammates hold him in high esteem.

I see an early hook for Lewis tonight - the Sox took the weekend and teed off against the Rays (with the exception of yesterday morning) scoring 31 runs to the Rays' 12 in four games.  The bats have been heating up in Boston, and the way Lester has been going, he won't need that much run support to come out victorious.