2014 Bill James Projections - John Lackey

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2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA, 72 BB, 156 SO

2011 projection: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
2011: 12-12, 28 starts, 160 IP, 6.41 ERA, 56 BB, 108 SO
2012: [No stats; missed entire year recovering from Tommy John surgery]
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 209 IP, 4.04 ERA, 59 BB, 163 SO
2014: 10-13, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 40 BB, 161 SO

2014 projections: 11-11, 29 starts, 199 IP, 3.93 ERA, 46 BB, 155 SO

This past season was exceptionally redemptive for John Lackey. He started 2013 as one of Boston's most hated athletes and transformed himself into a pitcher Red Sox fans trusted in the biggest situations. 

John Lackey handily outpitched FOX Sports' darling Justin Verlander in the ALCS, then won the clinching game of the World Series, and he did it with very little fanfare.

When Lackey came off the mound in Toronto last April clutching his arm, no one could have predicted how his season would end: making history by becoming the first starting pitcher in major league history to win the clinching game of the World Series with two separate teams.

Even with the egregious lack of run support this season, Lackey's numbers were impressive, and James and his team predict another productive season from the once-reviled right hander.

How did the Red Sox become baseball villains?

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When the Red Sox clinched their World Series berth last Saturday, there were floods of delirious celebratory tweets, Tumblr posts, and Facebook updates on their respective timelines. Sure, there were the scattered mourning Tigers fans, and the bitter Yankees fans - which is certainly to be expected.

But what I didn't expect to see was a single disdainful tweet, from (of all places) a Chicago Cubs fan. It said something like, "How did we end up with an all-villains World Series? #RedSox #Cards"

Less than a decade ago, Red Sox fans were constantly lumped together with Cubs fans like that one: lovable losers everyone can root for because of the hopelessness of their respective plights.

Red Sox fans and Cubs fans were permanently dejected and cynical. The baseball world would collectively pat us on the back sympathetically, half-jokingly referencing the Curses of the Bambino and the Billy Goat.

Nine years and two World Series wins later, the Red Sox are no longer hard-luck also-rans, and we fans gleefully gave up the "lovable" part to shed the "loser" label for good. Our jubilee at breaking the curse in 2004, and then adding another title in 2007 for good measure, began to grate on fans of less fortunate teams years ago.

None of that is exactly news, but to be termed a "villain," the very term we've so long hurled at our hated Bronx-dwelling division rivals, is hard to swallow.

In a certain way, it's almost delicious to feel the jealousy of other teams' fans, but to call our team "villainous" when it's primarily made up of home-grown talent and journeyman free agents seems unfair. Gone are the days when the Red Sox front office entered a bidding war to sign whatever free agent would cost the most.

Instead, Ben Cherington and co. ignored the Josh Hamilton offseason circus (to the chagrin of some fans who have been mysteriously silent since May) and signed mid-range players like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, and Stephen Drew.

This team overcame preseason expectations to pull together one heck of a 2013 campaign. This is a team that put the entire city of Boston on its back after an unthinkable tragedy, and with a rallying cry of "Boston Strong," proceeded to own the American League. They wear their team spirit on their faces in the form of lumberjack beards - and how can you villainize a lumberjack?

In the end, I suppose it doesn't much matter whether casual baseball fans can get behind us; there will never be another 2004, and there shouldn't be. The 2004 playoff run was something unique, nerve-wracking, and beautiful.

The 2013 playoffs haven't been nearly as terrifying: the Red Sox haven't faced down elimination all year. But 2013 is shaping up to be just as special, albeit in a different way.

After all, I'd rather be a villain in the World Series than a saint playing golf.

Red Sox: Instant Smile

During Game 6 of the ALCS, I tweeted this:

I meant it. For the past two days, every time I've had a setback in class, or someone has cut me off in traffic, or I can't find my keys, I have a magic talisman against frustration and anger.

The Red Sox are going to be playing in the World Series.

I don't know if it's a measure of my devotion, or an actual barometer on the level of insanity in my life, but nothing can tank my mood when the Red Sox are American League Champions.

I won't say it doesn't matter how the World Series ends, because OF COURSE it matters. But I will say that even if the worst happens, it's heartening to know that the worst possible outcome for the Red Sox is better than the best effort of twenty-eight other teams.

That said, I'm picking the Red Sox in six - we'll finally get to see the local nine celebrating a World Championship at Fenway Park.

SoxCast in Syracuse: Episode 3

In today's episode of SoxCast in Syracuse:

• We welcome Julianne to our cast!
• Max invades my personal space...
• We discuss Jose Iglesias' incredible catch, and the Red Sox taking Game 5 to return to Boston up 3-2 in the ALCS.

Feel free to download, share, and comment!

The John Lackey Redemption Tour Rolls On

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One of the great ironies of last night's game is that it was nearly business as usual for starting pitcher John Lackey: he pitched a great start, and had the misfortune to be sharing the mound with one of the game's premier hurlers.

Thankfully, last night's game did not include the total dearth of run support Lackey tolerated in the regular season. Sure, the Red Sox scored just a single run, but it was enough as Lackey made it through more than six innings, giving up no runs on four hits and eight strikeouts - with just 97 pitches.

In the past, Lackey's tendency to wear his emotions on his sleeve has gotten him into trouble. He would grimace when his teammates botched a play, and shout when the umpire's call didn't go the way he wanted. Last night was no different in terms of transparent passion, but the context was much more positive.

It was obvious that Lackey didn't want to give up the ball in the seventh inning. It was just as obvious that he sincerely believed in the relievers coming behind him, and that there was no consideration of escaping the dugout for beer or chicken after his departure.

It's taken this miraculous season for most Red Sox fans to really root for John Lackey. Many of us saw him as overpaid and under-motivated, and Red Sox Nation certainly knows how to hold a grudge. But Lackey's teammates never had any such qualms, as the big righthander is often cited as one of the best and most supportive personalities in the clubhouse.

I've never been one of those people who thinks great personality and chemistry is a replacement for talent, and there's no question that the 2013 Red Sox have made it this far because they are excellent baseball players. But bad vibes in the clubhouse can sabotage talented clubs, as selfishness and prioritizing personal goals take over the culture.

There was never any danger of that happening to this team. The two biggest stars on the club, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, are exactly the hardworking personable types you want your young players emulating. The returning players had something to prove, and the new players signed on to a philosophy of team and winning first.

John Lackey, despite his less than impressive W-L record, has been part of that cultural shift. Last night, John Lackey outdueled Justin Verlander, and earned the win in Game 3 of the ALCS. You can bet he'll readily credit his teammates for grinding out at-bats and holding the lead upon his departure, just as surely as they would point to him for an incredible pitching performance.