Tuesday, January 15, 2013

2013 Bill James Projections - Felix Doubront

2012: 11-10, 161 IP, 71 BB, 167 SO, 4.86 ERA
2013 projection: 12-11, 202 IP, 74 BB, 189 SO, 3.70 ERA

Felix Doubront is one of those players that has to do the rookie hazing dress-up routine multiple times, because he keeps getting called up and then sent back down. Last season, he had by far his longest stay with the big club (29 starts), and he'll be the presumptive fifth man in the rotation to begin 2013.

Last year had to be a tough one to be new to the major league routine, what with a new manager who seemed determined to make waves, teammates who were more than happy to jump ship to LA, and a long downward spiral to a last place finish in the division.

But Doubront did about as well as any of his teammates: he won more games than he lost, and pitched more innings for the Red Sox than all of his other stints combined. James projects that Doubront will pitch over 200 innings in 2013, and lover his ERA by more than a run. If Doubront can become a solid, mid-level starter, for right around the major league minimum, then I for one will be happy.

I've said this before, but watching kids come up through the minor league system and then perform at the major league level is one of the single greatest things about being a baseball fan. Doubront is well on his way to becoming a solid contributing piece of the Boston Red Sox, in 2013 and beyond - and I can't wait to see how he develops.

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