2015 Bill James Projections: Joe Kelly

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2012: 5-7, 16 starts, 107 IP, 3.53 ERA, 36 BB, 75 SO
2013 projection: 4-4, 0 starts, 67 IP, 4.16 ERA, 23 BB, 48 SO
2013: 10-5, 15 starts, 124 IP, 2.69 ERA, 44 BB, 79 SO
2014 projection: 6-7, 14 starts, 118 IP, 4.12 ERA, 41 BB, 81 SO
2014: 6-4, 17 starts, 96.1 IP, 4.20 ERA, 42 BB, 66 SO
2015 projection: 8-11, 28 starts, 172 IP, 4.19 ERA,70 BB, 117 SO

Joe Kelly came to the Red Sox from the Cardinals at last year's trade deadline as part of the John Lackey trade. Until then, Red Sox fans might have remembered him as the guy who started World Series Game 3 in 2013.

The Cardinals won that contest, though Kelly's 5.1 IP, 2 earned runs performance wasn't enough for him to get the W. In the end, of course, the Red Sox won that World Series, and Joe Kelly probably left Fenway Park feeling incredibly disappointed, not knowing he'd be traded for the Game 6 (and World Series) clinching pitcher just nine months later.

Kelly had a bit of a rough time last season, and Bill James and his team project him to have an almost identical ERA in 2015, albeit with a significant jump in innings pitched. You might have heard that Kelly has other ideas about his 2015 potential: the 26-year-old has predicted he'll be the American League Cy Young winner this year.

While I'm not ready to jump on the end of season award winner bandwagon yet, there are some compelling reasons to believe Kelly could have a breakout year in 2015. For starters, his 2014 was marred by an early hamstring injury, and then he had to get used to the AL after being traded.

Now healthy and with a few months of facing AL lineups under his belt, Kelly will be able to start the season in his comfort zone. It's also worth noting that now that he's made such a bold prediction, he'll have a serious incentive to reach it; pitchers are notoriously ego-driven, and Kelly has set himself a laudable goal.

But perhaps the greatest thing about Joe Kelly's still-new Red Sox tenure is his age: just 26, he's eligible for arbitration after this season, but under team control until he can first file for free agency in 2019. Even if his first full season in Boston turns out to be disappointing, he has plenty of time for improvement.

Red Sox World Series Victory, in OYOs!

They's like Legos, but more awesome.

Napoli sits under National League rules

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Tonight, the Red Sox will take the field in St. Louis. In the absence of a designated hitter spot, starting pitchers must come to the plate - and while pitchers are, as a rule, not good at hitting, this is a particular challenge for American League pitchers, because they almost never get to practice in game situations.

In this year's World Series, the Red Sox need to endure just three games with these rules, but in addition to worrying about how their pitchers will fare, they must choose between David Ortiz and Mike Napoli.

On the surface, it seems like a no-brainer: Ortiz is easily among the greatest DHs to ever play the game. His postseason record is legend, and his defense at first base is more than passable. 

However, Napoli is the second hottest hitter for the Red Sox right now, and without some of his truly masterful picks at first, quite a few Stephen Drew highlight-caliber plays don't get completed.

With the Series tied at 1-1, John Farrell is going with David Ortiz for Game 3. With the possible exception of giving the ball to Craig Breslow on Thursday, Farrell's choices have worked out very well for the Red Sox this postseason.

As much as I'll miss Nap's bat and excellent beard in the lineup, the Red Sox need Big Papi tonight. 

Is it 8:07 yet?

John Lackey has the ball - and fans' confidence

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This time last year, no one could have imagined the scenario Red Sox fans are facing tonight. Not only are the Red Sox up 1-0 in the World Series (a pipe dream all on its own), but John Lackey is starting, and he has the full confidence of Red Sox Nation.

After the fallout from 2011's collapse, John Lackey was basically the poster boy for all the that plagued the Sox. Fans saw him as surly, lazy, and overpaid. The announcement that he would miss all of 2012 for Tommy John surgery was met with jeers rather than sympathy.

This season, he set out to turn his image around, and succeeded with flying colors. Despite the misleading 10-13 record, Lackey's ERA was a solid 3.52, his lowest since coming to Boston, and the third lowest of his eleven-year career. He struck out 161 players, while walking just 40.

If it's possible, he's been even more impressive this postseason, taking Game 2 of the ALDS against David Price and the Rays, and then outdueling Justin Verlander in Game 3 of the ALCS.

Indeed, Lackey's Game 3 start is probably the most underrated performance of the postseason - FOX was too busy drooling over Verlander to note the fact that John Lackey out-pitched him, shutting out that vaunted Tigers lineup for six and two-thirds innings.

Lackey's home-away splits are well documented, and with Clay Buchholz dealing with shoulder tightness, it makes sense for Lackey to start Game 2 tonight.

Via Baseball-Reference

I don't for a second believe the Cardinals will keep playing like they played last night. The Red Sox will have to battle going forward - but Lackey is the guy I want on the mound tonight.

How did the Red Sox become baseball villains?

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When the Red Sox clinched their World Series berth last Saturday, there were floods of delirious celebratory tweets, Tumblr posts, and Facebook updates on their respective timelines. Sure, there were the scattered mourning Tigers fans, and the bitter Yankees fans - which is certainly to be expected.

But what I didn't expect to see was a single disdainful tweet, from (of all places) a Chicago Cubs fan. It said something like, "How did we end up with an all-villains World Series? #RedSox #Cards"

Less than a decade ago, Red Sox fans were constantly lumped together with Cubs fans like that one: lovable losers everyone can root for because of the hopelessness of their respective plights.

Red Sox fans and Cubs fans were permanently dejected and cynical. The baseball world would collectively pat us on the back sympathetically, half-jokingly referencing the Curses of the Bambino and the Billy Goat.

Nine years and two World Series wins later, the Red Sox are no longer hard-luck also-rans, and we fans gleefully gave up the "lovable" part to shed the "loser" label for good. Our jubilee at breaking the curse in 2004, and then adding another title in 2007 for good measure, began to grate on fans of less fortunate teams years ago.

None of that is exactly news, but to be termed a "villain," the very term we've so long hurled at our hated Bronx-dwelling division rivals, is hard to swallow.

In a certain way, it's almost delicious to feel the jealousy of other teams' fans, but to call our team "villainous" when it's primarily made up of home-grown talent and journeyman free agents seems unfair. Gone are the days when the Red Sox front office entered a bidding war to sign whatever free agent would cost the most.

Instead, Ben Cherington and co. ignored the Josh Hamilton offseason circus (to the chagrin of some fans who have been mysteriously silent since May) and signed mid-range players like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, and Stephen Drew.

This team overcame preseason expectations to pull together one heck of a 2013 campaign. This is a team that put the entire city of Boston on its back after an unthinkable tragedy, and with a rallying cry of "Boston Strong," proceeded to own the American League. They wear their team spirit on their faces in the form of lumberjack beards - and how can you villainize a lumberjack?

In the end, I suppose it doesn't much matter whether casual baseball fans can get behind us; there will never be another 2004, and there shouldn't be. The 2004 playoff run was something unique, nerve-wracking, and beautiful.

The 2013 playoffs haven't been nearly as terrifying: the Red Sox haven't faced down elimination all year. But 2013 is shaping up to be just as special, albeit in a different way.

After all, I'd rather be a villain in the World Series than a saint playing golf.

Bandwagoning: go hard or go home

When I decided to jump on the Orioles and Giants bangwagons through the postseason, I was hoping to see an all orange Giants-Orioles World Series. Thanks to CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees, that's no longer possible - but I would settle for a Tigers-Giants Fall Classic.

The Giants play Game 3 of the NLCS against the Cardinals this afternoon at 4, with that series tied at one game apiece. Because I never do anything halfway, when the Giants clinched their spot in the NLCS, I went online to order a San Francisco Giants shirt from the MLB team store.

I wanted to purchase a Marco Scutaro t-shirt, since he's a former Red Sox and is playing second base for the Giants (and you all know how I feel about short second basemen).  To get a Scutaro shirt, I would have had to fork over $36 for the "design your own" option, as they only continuously stock "big name" players like Posey and Lincecum for $26.  Instead, I went for a plain Giants logo shirt - and despite an estimated shipping date of next week, it arrived yesterday, so today I'm on the bandwagon in style.

I'm also hoping the Tigers can close out the Yankees tonight - because they've got Derek Lowe over there now yelling about how the comeback is possible, and "don't let us win tonight!" If anyone understands that a 3-0 lead isn't safe, it's the Yankees, so I would really prefer things to end tonight before they get any heroic ideas.

Wild Card Day!

Photo from the mlb.com homepage

Today will be an exciting day for baseball.  Even if both Wild Card games are blowouts, it's a history-making endeavor: the first day of the newly extended playoffs.  The Braves take on the defending World Champion Cardinals at 5:00, and then the upstart Orioles look to knock out the defending AL Champion Texas Rangers at 8:30.

I know most people hate the new format, what with adding two more teams to the pennant race and making the Wild Card teams play a winner take all one game playoff - which understandably seems like a ridiculous gamble after slogging through 162 games to reach this point.

But I actually really like the new format.  First of all, Major League Baseball still has fewer teams make the playoffs than any other major sports league, so if you complain about the new Wild Card setup and have no qualms with the systems of the NBA, NFL, or NHL, you need to take a good long look at yourself.

More importantly, the disagreement over the "unfairness" of the one game playoff is absurd; if anything, this sets to right the issue with adding the Wild Card back in the nineties.  Since the inception of the Wild Card, the only penalty given for not winning your division was a lack of home field advantage.  Essentially the Wild Card winner was treated exactly the same as some of the division winners, and that is downright ridiculous.

Now, winning the division means something. It means not having to get through a one game playoff, which, as most baseball fans know, is essentially a tossup.  It means more meaningful baseball in the last games of the season. I don't know why you wouldn't be on board with that.

World Series Review: I Suck at Predictions

 Despite worries from baseball elite that this year’s World Series would be boring and unprofitable due to the absence of large-market teams full of superstars, it turned out to be one of the most exciting Fall Classics in years.  Their worries were certainly valid, as the biggest audiences will typically tune in when teams from either coast are involved, and this Series was, as Sports Illustrated put it, “Central Casting,” with both the AL and NL Pennants going to teams far from the coasts, the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively.

The network carrying the Series also doesn’t begin to make a profit unless the two teams play five or more games in the best of seven series: since they pay Major League Baseball so much money to gain the exclusive televising rights, the advertising revenue after just four games (like the sweeps in 2004, 2005, and 2007) barely covers their cost.  If a Series reaches seven games, like this one, the network can charge huge amounts of money on advertising slots to get a return on their large investment.

 The games themselves were particularly compelling: on one side you had the Rangers, who have never won a World Series (including in their time as the Washington Senators), who were back after losing to the San Francisco Giants in last year’s Fall Classic, and who had been the no-doubt winners of the AL West for quite some time.  Across the diamond you had the Cinderella story:  the Cardinals had been ten games back in the Wild Card race with a month to play, and had just a 1.1% chance of even seeing the playoffs, before taking down the Braves to make it in, then the favored Phillies (who had been practically crowned World Champs in February), and the Brewers.

While Texas hunted fruitlessly for it’s first title, St. Louis tried to provide more incentive for free-agent to be Albert Pujols to stay with the team this offseason, and it might have worked – when asked if a repeat would be possible in 2012, Pujols grinned and said, “Why not?” 

The Series it self was compelling all the way through, as the two teams traded victories through Game 4, and then Texas gained a 3-2 advantage by winning Game 5.  If you didn’t watch what happened next, you missed a hell of a game.  Game 6 was one for the ages: the Rangers were one strike away from winning their first title – twice.  They had a two-run lead in both the ninth and tenth innings, and then David Freese and Lance Berkman (both with two strikes against them) batted in the tying runs.  Freese would hit a walkoff home run in the bottom of the eleventh inning to send the Series to its seventh game.

 After the drama of Game 6, Game 7 was slightly less exciting, as the Cards earned the lead in the third and never relinquished it.  Hometown boy David Freese was named World Series MVP, and the city of St. Louis earned the right to party in the streets for the second time in five years.  Despite the absence of a big-market team, this World Series was one for the ages – it’s only too bad that it’s over.

World Series Preview: 2011

 Typically you would examine starting pitching matchups very carefully when attempting to predict the outcome of a seven-game series like the Fall Classic, but this postseason has been anything but typical for the hurlers of the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers.  During the LCS, the Card’s starters managed just one win in their six games, and posted an atrocious 7.03 ERA, while the Rangers’ starting staff didn’t do much better: zero wins in six games with an ERA of 6.59.

            Not a single Rangers starter has managed to make an out in the seventh inning all postseason, and there has never been a World Series Champion that could make that dubious claim.  On the other hand, both teams are averaging less than five innings out of their starters per game during these playoffs, and the last team to win the Fall Classic with that distinction was the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates.  Both teams have relied heavily on their bullpens thus far, so it should be interesting to see how the pitching situation shakes out.

            Assuming starters can stay in the game for a reasonable length of time, the Rangers have the edge, despite the fact that the National League Cardinals have home-field advantage by virtue of the NL winning this year’s All-Star Game.  The Cards were just 20-20 this season against left-handed pitchers, and Texas boasts three southpaws in their playoff rotation. CJ Wilson will start the Series off tonight against Chris Carpenter (RHP).  Wilson has turned into a bona fide ace for the Rangers in the last two years, making a seamless transition from his bullpen days.  Tomorrow night will see righthander Colby Lewis starting for Texas, with lefty Jaime Garcia taking the mound for the Cards. The Rangers round out their rotation with lefthanders Derek Holland and Matt Harrison on Saturday and Sunday, while the Cards will counter with righties Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse.

            Star power is provided by the Rangers’ Ian Kinsler (2B), Josh Hamilton – hero of the 2008 Home Run Derby (CF), and Adrian Beltre (3B), while the biggest story on the Cardinals’ side of things is free-agent to be Albert Pujols (1B).  The Cards do have other star players (left fielder Matt Holliday, right fielder Lance Berkman), but the big questions revolve around Pujols: will he follow the dollars to greener pastures this offseason, or will he stay in baseball-crazy St. Louis? And either way, will he lead the cards to another Championship?

            The last time the Cardinals won the World Series was just fie seasons ago in 2006 – just two years after being swept from the Series by the Boston Red Sox.  The Rangers have a similar feel of unfinished business to them, as they return to the Fall Classic after falling to the San Francisco Giants in just five games last October.  The consensus in the baseball world seems to be that Texas has a pretty strong edge – even though they will not enjoy home field advantage – but that expecting St. Louis to bow out in four games would be just another fallacy. Texas should take it, but we’ll give them six games to do so, and they’ll win their very first World Series in their fifty year history.

Playoff Preview 2011

 The marathon is over.  One hundred and sixty-two games later, just eight teams remain, all hunting for the right to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy into the October night.  The road to the postseason was exciting for many, with the Rays and the Cardinals sneaking in on the very last day of the regular season – both avoiding potential one-game playoffs for the Wild Card against the free-falling Red Sox (winners of the dubious “worst September collapse in history” distinction) and Braves, respectively.

            Two games into the Division Series at press time, and only the Brewers have an edge (two games to none, over the Diamondbacks).  The Yankees and Tigers, Phillies and Cards, and Rays and Rangers are all tied up, with each team laying claim to a singular LDS victory.  The biggest surprise thus far has to be Cliff Lee’s Game 2 loss, closely followed by James Shields’ disastrous start on Saturday.

            In the best-of-five Division Series, the safest money is on Milwaukee to defeat Arizona in three or four games to advance to the NLCS.  The other series are a bit more convoluted to predict while tied 1-1 each – it essentially means you're predicting the outcome of a best-of-three series; something any baseball fan will tell you is a crapshoot.  Most people are betting on Philadelphia to advance over St. Louis, but the Cards won’t be making it easy, especially since Albert Pujols’ troublesome left ankle didn’t stop him from knocking in the go-ahead run on Saturday to tie the series.

            As for New York and Detroit, the advantage will fall to the team whose ace pulls through Monday evening. Writing this Monday morning, I’m giving the edge to the Yankees and CC Sabathia, despite the apparent Cy Young winner Justin Verlander going for the Tigers at home.  Down in St. Pete, the Rangers have Colby Lewis going against the Rays’ young star David Price.  Price struggled down the stretch, so it’s possible that the 224 innings he pitched in 2011 (by far his career high) are catching up with the young lefty. Conversely, Lewis ended his season with a win, and is 3-0 lifetime against the Rays, so I’m going to give him – and the Rangers – the advantage for Game 3 and the ALDS.

            Assuming all of the above, the ALCS should be Texas vs. New York (Yankees will have home-field advantage), and the NLCS should be Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia (Phillies will have home-field advantage).  This is where the pitching staffs will really start to show; baseball is all about pitching, and one hot or strong-willed started can will his team to a World Series – just ask vintage Josh Beckett (2003, 2007).  Though Texas lacks a Sabathia-caliber ace, the rest of their staff is much more reliable than New York’s: if AJ Burnett were more dependable, the Yankees would have my confidence.  As it is, I’m giving the edge to the Rangers.

            If the Phillies manage to get eliminated before the World Series, it will be seen as a failure.  Like the disgraced BoSox, the Phillies were practically crowned champions in February, before a single game had been played. Their pitching pedigree cannot be questioned, but the Brewers are young, hot, and ambitious. For now, the advantage is with Philly.

            In a Texas-Philadelphia World Series (Philly, as the NL team, has home-field because of the NL win in the All-Star Game), the Phillies win it.  It is, as they say, all about the pitching, and no one can beat the Phillies hurlers, at least on paper.

            However, anyone who has read (or now seen) Michael Lewis’ Moneyball knows that playoffs, and especially best-of-five series, are little better than a roll of the dice. Anything can happen, and probably will: I’m predicting a Phillies-Rangers Fall Classic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Cardinals-Tigers, Diamondbacks-Rays, or Brewers-Yankees. That’s (playoff) baseball.

[Note: the strange timing of this entry - not at the beginning of the LDS - is due to the fact that it was originally written for the Trinity Tripod, and my deadline over there is Monday morning. This means I might already be wrong by the time it comes to press Tuesday night. Oops.]