Hindsight is 20/20 (Pitching)

Earlier this month, I did an entry comparing the Bill James projections of position player performances to their actual numbers. As always, James was correct more often than not. I had a reader request after that post that I do one concerning our pitchers, and I agreed to - once the playoffs were over. Alas, I would much rather be typing up Red Sox ALCS preview, but this will have to do:

STARTERS

Josh Beckett:
Projection: 29 games, 189 IP, 21 HR, 176 SO, 3.57 ERA, 13-8 record
Actual: 32, 212.1, 25, 199, 3.86, 17-6

Despite the panic in Red Sox Nation over Josh's late-season performance, he actual over-achieved in virtually every category except HR and ERA, and those were close. While Lester may have overtaken him as the ace, he remains a top-tier pitcher.

Jon Lester:
Projection: 32 games, 212 IP, 19 HR, 168 SO, 4.02 ERA, 12-11 record
Actual: 32, 203.1, 20, 225, 3.41, 15-8

Lester emerged as a true top of the rotation guy this year, breaking the franchise single season strikeouts record for a southpaw, and becoming the dominating force he was projected to be. Obviously, be smashed James' SO, ERA, and W-L projections, but there was some worry that his innings from the 2008 campaign might adversely affect him... Clearly, that wasn't the case.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
Projection: 30 games, 184 IP, 17 HR, 174 SO, 3.58 ERA, 12-8 record
Actual: 12, 59.1, 10, 54, 5.76, 4-6

Obviously, James couldn't have predicted Daisuke's terrible offseason training regimen, which sent him to the WBC and then Spring Training completely out of shape and unable to perform. This, of course, resulted in a lost season from the Japanese enigma. However, the guy we saw in September was encouraging: here's hoping he actually does his workouts this winter.

Tim Wakefield:
Projection: 28 games, 160 IP, 21 HR, 107 SO, 3.91 ERA, 10-8 record
Actual: 21, 129.2, 12, 72, 4.58, 11-5

Knuckleballs are hard to predict on the field, and even more difficult to predict over the course of a season. Wake had an amazing first half, going to his first All-Star game, and let's not forget that gem he threw in April, which could be pointed to as an early turning point for the team. Though his second-half problems are becoming a habit, I'd like to see the team give him another year, especially for $4 million.

(Clay Buchholz was not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

RELIEVERS

Manny Delcarmen:
Projection: 71 games, 81 IP, 3.44 ERA, 6-3 record, 1 save
Actual: 64, 59.2, 4.53, 5-2, 0

MDC had a great start, lest you forget, but his second half slide was particularly bad, as he melted down in several important situations. People who would know (Curt Schilling, for one) often say that Delcarmen has some of the best stuff on the team, and could be a closer on many teams... It just doesn't look like he has the makeup - except maybe in the National League.

Hideki Okajima:
Projection: 61 games, 61 IP, 3.19 ERA, 5-2 record, 0 saves
Actual: 68, 61, 3.39, 6-0, 0

Oki was what we have come to expect: a quietly above-average pitcher who can get right- and left-handers out with nearly equal efficiency, who can come in to get a single out or go two innings. His consistency is a luxury that many teams don't have. Who's the throw-in now, Daisuke?

Takashi Saito:
Projection: 50 games, 52 IP, 3.09 ERA, 4-2 record, 20 saves
Actual: 56, 55.2, 2.43, 3-3, 2 saves

This one is more interesting: Saito's projections were based off what he would do if he were to stay the closer for the Dodgers. Clearly, when he came to Boston, his role changed: he didn't save games unless Paps wasn't available, and after Billy Wags came to town, forget it. However, his ERA was excellent for someone of his age and cost, and he exceeded expectations (numerically), even within the AL East.

Ramon Ramirez:
Projection:66 games, 67 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4-4 record, 1 save
Actual: 70, 69.2, 2.84, 7-4, 0

Again, Ramirez's projections were based on the assumption that he would be playing in Kansas City, yet he STILL exceeded all expectations across the board, even with the new pressures of a pennant race and a city that blows everything baseball-related out of proportions. Thanks, Coco!

Jonathan Papelbon:
Projection: 64 games, 71 IP, 2.04 ERA, 5-3 record, 41 saves
Actual: 66, 68, 1.85, 1-1, 38

Despite some shakiness in the first half, while he was "changing his mechanics," Paps had an extremely good year. His ERA was awesome, and despite the heart attacks, he converted his save opportunities more often than not. However, his most impressive stat is probably the combined 5,000 years he took off the lives of Sox fans everywhere.

(Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner are not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

Five Minute Musings

Five quick points while I should be writing a paper:

1. SPRING TRAINING!!!!!!!!!! I'm so excited.  Seriously.  Words cannot describe how great a day it is, even though it was so windy that I thought I might blow away walking to class.  But, to be honest, I'm just happy that there will now be actual baseball-related material to talk about.  I'm already sick of talking smack about A-Rod [who knew that could happen?].

2.  Josh Beckett is reportedly in great shape [not that they would say anything if he wasn't].  Apparently he scored better on a shoulder-strength test than he did even back in 2007.  You know, that year when he won 20 games... and I think there might have been some Postseason dominance, maybe a ring...?  Beckett is currently playing for a 2010 option that will automatically vest if/when he makes twenty-eight starts.  The option is for $12 million, and here's what Josh had to say back in 2003 when he signed the deal: "I didn't go for top dollar.  I wanted to play here.  I've already made quite a bit of money in this game."  Wow.  I don't think I can adequately express how much I love that the Sox have so many players who just love to play - oh, and to win.

3.  Jon Lester was one of the first players to get to camp, and weei.com is reporting that he's put on a few pounds of muscle since the end of the 2008 campaign.  Hopefully it will be enough for him to hold up for the whole season like he did last year.  On another note, here's hoping that the Sox FO do the right thing with this guy and lock him up long term.  I for one don't really think that they'll extend Beckett past 2010 [although it's possible, as he'll only be 30 years old], and Jon Lester definitely has the makings of an ace.  Obviously something about Portland, Maine is a good influence on young players.

4.  Justin Masterson might be as whipped as Mark Teixeira.  Again according to weei.com, he bought a Mini Cooper becasue his wife wanted one.  I'll just tell myself that's as far as it goes... hopefully Mrs. Masterson doesn't suddenly decide she doesn't like the stores on Newbury Street.  But seriously.  Watch the video.  Masterson is quite the character.  In pitching related news, Justin will be going through Spring Training as a starter, and likely make the switch to the 'pen closer to Opening Day.

5.  Hideki Okajima threw 78 pitches in his bullpen session today, more than any other Sox player.  John Farrell quipped that he looked ready to start the season.  Brad Penny also looks to be ready for some serious baseball, throwing off a mound for the first time since he was shut down in September.  He credits the Sox doctors with helping him get over his injury, and was seen joking around with fellow recovering-ex-Dodger Takashi Saito.  The last of the rehabbing new-additions, John Smoltz, will be taking it slow, as the Sox don't have any pressing need for his arm right away.

So, there you have it: spring is here... or tantalizingly close, at the very least.

Seriously.  Watch it.