2015 Bill James Projections: Wade Miley

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2011: 4-2, 7 starts, 40 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 BB, 25 SO
2012 projection: 4-5, 14 starts, 80 IP, 3.94 ERA, 30 BB, 61 SO
2012: 16-11, 29 starts, 194.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 37 BB, 144 SO
2013 projection: 12-10, 30 starts, 199 IP, 3.57 ERA, 50 BB, 150 SO
2013: 10-10, 33 starts, 202.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 66 BB, 147 SO
2014 projection: 12-11, 32 starts, 203 IP, 3.68 ERA, 59 BB, 151 SO
2014: 8-12, 33 starts, 201.1 IP, 4.34 ERA, 75 BB, 183 SO
2015 projection: 10-11, 30 starts, 184 IP, 3.91 ERA, 63 BB, 145 SO

The Red Sox traded for Wade Miley shortly before losing Jon Lester to the Cubs, and the trade almost suggested that Boston knew it wouldn't be luring Lester back to Fenway Park.

But let's be perfectly clear: Wade Miley, despite being a big southpaw, is not Jon Lester. Red Sox Nation mourned the loss of Lester, a true left-handed ace - but Ben Cherington made the right long term call, as the years committed by the Cubs are overzealous at best.

So what does Miley bring to the table? He throws his ~90mph fastball about two-thirds of the time, though he leaned on it slightly less last year than in previous years. He also throws a slider, a changeup, and (rarely) a curveball.

The biggest advantage Miley will bring to the Red Sox is the near-guarantee that he'll throw a lot of innings: since making the jump from 40 IP to 194 IP in 2012, Miley has neared or topped the 200 inning mark in each of the last three seasons. The importance of that durability on a staff that includes Clay Buchholz cannot be overstated.

The other thing about Miley is that he'll be just 28 this year. He's been good if not spectacular throughout his career, but he still has plenty of time to grow as a player - and John Farrell has an excellent track record when it comes to molding young arms.

Bill James and his team calculated their projections with the assumption Miley would be pitching in the NL West, so it's likely there will be an adjustment period when he moves to the AL East. Still, Red Sox fans should absolutely be optimistic about Miley's future in Boston. He's a solid pitcher with a high ceiling, and as of today, the only lefty in the Red Sox rotation.

Playoff Preview 2011

 The marathon is over.  One hundred and sixty-two games later, just eight teams remain, all hunting for the right to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy into the October night.  The road to the postseason was exciting for many, with the Rays and the Cardinals sneaking in on the very last day of the regular season – both avoiding potential one-game playoffs for the Wild Card against the free-falling Red Sox (winners of the dubious “worst September collapse in history” distinction) and Braves, respectively.

            Two games into the Division Series at press time, and only the Brewers have an edge (two games to none, over the Diamondbacks).  The Yankees and Tigers, Phillies and Cards, and Rays and Rangers are all tied up, with each team laying claim to a singular LDS victory.  The biggest surprise thus far has to be Cliff Lee’s Game 2 loss, closely followed by James Shields’ disastrous start on Saturday.

            In the best-of-five Division Series, the safest money is on Milwaukee to defeat Arizona in three or four games to advance to the NLCS.  The other series are a bit more convoluted to predict while tied 1-1 each – it essentially means you're predicting the outcome of a best-of-three series; something any baseball fan will tell you is a crapshoot.  Most people are betting on Philadelphia to advance over St. Louis, but the Cards won’t be making it easy, especially since Albert Pujols’ troublesome left ankle didn’t stop him from knocking in the go-ahead run on Saturday to tie the series.

            As for New York and Detroit, the advantage will fall to the team whose ace pulls through Monday evening. Writing this Monday morning, I’m giving the edge to the Yankees and CC Sabathia, despite the apparent Cy Young winner Justin Verlander going for the Tigers at home.  Down in St. Pete, the Rangers have Colby Lewis going against the Rays’ young star David Price.  Price struggled down the stretch, so it’s possible that the 224 innings he pitched in 2011 (by far his career high) are catching up with the young lefty. Conversely, Lewis ended his season with a win, and is 3-0 lifetime against the Rays, so I’m going to give him – and the Rangers – the advantage for Game 3 and the ALDS.

            Assuming all of the above, the ALCS should be Texas vs. New York (Yankees will have home-field advantage), and the NLCS should be Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia (Phillies will have home-field advantage).  This is where the pitching staffs will really start to show; baseball is all about pitching, and one hot or strong-willed started can will his team to a World Series – just ask vintage Josh Beckett (2003, 2007).  Though Texas lacks a Sabathia-caliber ace, the rest of their staff is much more reliable than New York’s: if AJ Burnett were more dependable, the Yankees would have my confidence.  As it is, I’m giving the edge to the Rangers.

            If the Phillies manage to get eliminated before the World Series, it will be seen as a failure.  Like the disgraced BoSox, the Phillies were practically crowned champions in February, before a single game had been played. Their pitching pedigree cannot be questioned, but the Brewers are young, hot, and ambitious. For now, the advantage is with Philly.

            In a Texas-Philadelphia World Series (Philly, as the NL team, has home-field because of the NL win in the All-Star Game), the Phillies win it.  It is, as they say, all about the pitching, and no one can beat the Phillies hurlers, at least on paper.

            However, anyone who has read (or now seen) Michael Lewis’ Moneyball knows that playoffs, and especially best-of-five series, are little better than a roll of the dice. Anything can happen, and probably will: I’m predicting a Phillies-Rangers Fall Classic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Cardinals-Tigers, Diamondbacks-Rays, or Brewers-Yankees. That’s (playoff) baseball.

[Note: the strange timing of this entry - not at the beginning of the LDS - is due to the fact that it was originally written for the Trinity Tripod, and my deadline over there is Monday morning. This means I might already be wrong by the time it comes to press Tuesday night. Oops.]

Redemption?

Clay Buchholz had an uncharacteristically poor start his last time out (it's worth noting that 7IP and 3 earned runs has become a "poor" performance by the emerging ace), and I'm sure he's eager to redeem himself tonight against the Diamondbacks.

Poor Arizona. The D-backs have won just nine games on the road compared to twenty-two losses, including a ten game road losing streak. On the other hand, their scheduled starter, Ian Kennedy, is 3-3 with a 3.17 ERA.

That's pretty good, but it's not the 8-4, 2.52 ERA belonging to Buchholz. I'm off to Fenway Park for tonight's game, which is why this is so short (sorry!). I'll be sure to be back tomorrow and share my reaction to Clay's start.