2016 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB
2015: 105 games, .249 BA, .291 OBP, .426 SLG, 19 HR, 53 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .277 BA, .346 OBP, .462 SLG, 23 HR, 80 RBI

I think I'm in the minority of Red Sox fans when I say that I still don't hate the Hanley Ramirez deal. Especially given the (borderline tragic) news that 2016 will be David Ortiz's final year manning the designated hitter slot for the Red Sox, I actually like the Ramirez signing better than ever.

Was last year a relative disappointment? Sure. But Ramirez played just under 65% of a full season last year, and hit nearly 20 home runs. He only missed all that time in the first place because he got injured early on playing an unfamiliar position - one much more challenging than the one he'll be asked to play this season.

On Opening Day 2015, Hanley Ramirez hit two home runs, one of them a grand slam. While that kind of production is obviously unrealistic on a game-by-game basis, you'd be lying to yourself if you said that performance didn't make you practically giddy with anticipation over what Ramirez might accomplish in a Red Sox uniform.

No one, not even a fully healthy and committed Hanley Ramirez, will ever come close to duplicating the production David Ortiz has had in Boston. But without the burden of playing in left field - and eventually, without the burden of playing anywhere but the plate - Ramirez could change a lot of minds.

Bill James and his team project Ramirez to have a better season in 2016 than the one we endured last year. Ramirez himself has pledged his dedication to staying fit and dedicated for the upcoming campaign. Of course, he promised us the same thing last year, and actions speak louder than words. I genuinely believe that Boston could be great for Ramirez, and vice versa. Hopefully he spends 2016 doing his absolute damnedest to prove the haters wrong.

2015 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB

The rumors would crop up almost every year between the time Hanley Ramirez went to Florida and this offseason: the one-time Red Sox prospect was coming back. It now seems there's an actual fire under all that smoke, and Ramirez, now a bona fide star, is on his way back to Boston.

But what can we expect from Ramirez this season? It's unclear where the soon-to-be 31-year-old will even play: the Red Sox seem content with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop (and pulling him from his natural position seemed to have consequences this season), and are reportedly among the finalists to sign free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

There's talk that Ramirez could end up in left field if the Red Sox are the winners of the Sandoval sweepstakes, but he's never played a major league game in the outfield in his ten years of service time. One thing remains clear: no matter what we get from Ramirez defensively, his bat will add some much-needed pop to a Red Sox lineup that in 2014 could be accurately described as "lethargic."

Ramirez's average has hovered around .300 his entire career, and his power numbers are certainly well above what you would expect from a shortstop in the post-steroid era. Over the past few years, Bill James and his team have done a reliable job either underestimating Ramirez slightly, or hitting their projections almost exactly on the nose.

If Ramirez can live up to what James has projected for his 2015 in the midst of trading one big market (LA) for another (the admittedly much more baseball-crazed Boston), we should have an exciting season on our hands.

Welcome back to Boston, Hanley Ramirez: the expectations will be higher here, but the fans will show up before the third inning and stay until the end, and the reward, should you lead us all the way, will be that much sweeter.

Zero to Hero!

Okay, so maybe Big Papi was never a zero... but he sure came close this April, scuffling is such an epic manner that some Boston-area scribes were calling for his release. David Ortiz took that criticism and made it his motivation, getting hot in May and staying that way, leading to his sixth All-Star selection, and fourth time in the Home Run Derby.

The guys on MLBNetwork called David "the Susan Lucci of the Home Run Derby," referring to the All My Children star who has been oft-nominated for an Emmy, but won just once (she's 1-for-21). Papi's success rate is now much higher, as he's batting .250 in Derby wins after a 32 homer performance last night.


One subplot was that David chose Yankees' bench coach Tony Pena as his pitcher, though no one seemed to think it was a big deal. Pena, there accompanying Joe Girardi, AL Manager, and pitching to Nick Swisher in the derby, didn't bat an eyelash at pitching to the Red Sox slugger. The boys from ESPN summed it up well when they surmised "This isn't a Red Sox/Yankees thing; this is a Dominican thing."

Things sure worked out for the proud people of the Dominican republic, as the final round saw two of their own battling it out for top honors, as Ortiz went up against former Red Sox farmhand and current Marlins superstar Hanley Ramirez (who says the Sox can't produce power?). Ramirez told ESPN's Erin Andrews that Papi "was like a father figure" to him in his days in the Sox system, mentoring him and giving advice to a young player with obvious talent but questionable work ethic.


For his part, Papi confirmed that Ramirez was "like a son" to him, that he always knew Hanley would be a superstar: “I wish Hanley would be playing on our team, like he was supposed to,’’ said the slugger, while acknowledging that the trade had worked out for both sides. David even went so far as to come out and advise the young Ramirez in the middle of the final round, bearing a towel, a sports drink, and his trademarked smile.

The encouragement wasn't enough for the young short stop to eke out a win against Papi, but he put up a strong showing. If there are baseball gods, they couldn't have scripted this better. David Ortiz was counted out on April 31, 2010, and some had written him off even earlier. But Papi knew better - and he proved that he's far from done, illustrating the wise words of Torii Hunter: “You have to know what’s in his heart and you have to understand how much pride he has. He’s too young to be done.’’

Zero to Home Run Derby Hero, indeed.

Sorry, couldn't resist.