Ben Cherington - Executive of the Year

©Kayla Chadwick 2013

Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington has been named the Sporting News Executive of the Year. The award was decided by a voting panel of 31 Major League executives, and this year marks just the fourth time in MLB history that a Red Sox exec earned the honor.

Of the thirty-one votes, Cherington got fifteen, while Neal Huntington of the Pittsburgh Pirates got nine, Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals got four, and Frank Wren of the Atlanta Braves got three.

Cherington's award is a testament to how much people love an underdog story. If any team with the payroll capabilities of Boston could be considered an unlikely winner, it was this one. After an unbelievably disastrous 2012, the worst-to-first romp of 2013 was both glorious and unexpected.

Cherington's offseason moves (signing Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, and Mike Napoli, among others) are certainly to be congratulated, but the true start of the 2013 turnaround came late in 2012, when the Dodgers gave the Red Sox a mulligan on some truly mammoth contracts. Without the trade of Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Nick Punto, the Red Sox would never have the chance to win it all in 2013.

So maybe Cherington should send a case of World Series champagne out to the LA front office? Because without them, he doesn't get this award.

Catching up with old friends

Sometimes when players leave the Red Sox, fans are content; for whatever reason, sometimes it's just time for them to pack up and go. Other times, we wish they could stay, even if what we get in return is incredible.  No matter how players leave town, it's always fun to see where they end up.

As you all know, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez got traded to the Dodgers last season - the laid back style of LA seems to be suiting them, at least based on this photo tweeted from the Dodgers account:

Meanwhile, out in Houston, former Red Sox shortstop Jed Lowrie, who was always rather more cerebral than his fellows, is making a serious hobby of photography:

Outfielder Josh Reddick, now with the Oakland A's, has reportedly accepted a beard-growing challenge from WWE wrestler Daniel Bryan: 

And perhaps most hilariously of all, Manny Ramirez is currently playing professional baseball in Taiwan, for $25,000 a month.  For comparison's sake, Ramirez made nearly six times that PER GAME in the Red Sox Championship season of 2004.

Casey Kelly to get Tommy John

Remember former Red Sox prospect Casey Kelly? He was a big part of the package that pried Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, and a first round draft pick for the Red Sox in 2008. When he was drafted, he played shortstop as well as pitching for his first two years in the minors.

When the Red Sox signed Jose Iglesias, Kelly finally made the permanent move to pitching. Well, hindsight is twenty-twenty, and the promising young pitcher will soon undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery. Of course, this might not be the worst thing for Kelly, as many pitchers come back from the surgery better than ever.

The news does make the failure of the Adrian Gonzalez trade somewhat less painful, as the central piece in the trade (who was legitimately hard to part with) is somewhat less valuable than we would have predicted. I definitely feel for Kelly - he and Ryan Kalish should get together and commiserate over injuries stalling their promising careers.

Gonzalez, Beckett, Crawford, and Punto to LA

It's official. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto are headed for the Dodgers.  Beckett has waived his 10-5 rights (as a player with ten years in the majors and five with the same team, he has the right to veto any trade), and Crawford has accepted the trade despite having the Dodgers as one of just three teams in his no-trade clause.

The blockbuster trade seems pretty one sided, as the Red Sox are getting just a single major leaguer in the person of James Loney, a first baseman who is a free agent after this season.  The Sox will also be getting four minor league players players: outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands (AAA), infielder Ivan DeJesus (AAA), righthanded pitcher Allen Webster (AA), and righthanded pitcher Rubby De La Rosa (AAA) (who was claimed by the Blue Jays, pulled off of waivers by the Dodgers, and thus will likely be a player to be named later and obtained in the offseason).

The Dodgers are going to be taking on all but about $10 million of the approximately $250 million the Sox owe to their four players, who are, as Pete Abraham so aptly put it, "bad contracts, not bad people."

Carl Crawford came in and was never quite healthy, which was as much as disappointment to him as it was to the fans.  Adrian Gonzalez was a slave to the heightened expectations we had for him because of his transition from the cavernous Petco Park to the friendly confines of Fenway.  Neither man was prepared to embrace the demands of being a star in Boston.

As for Josh Beckett, I for one would like to say thanks for the memories.  Without the man once referred to as "Commander Kickass," there would have been no World Series in 2007, and for all the crap he's said through the years, he's done some great charity work.

From the Twitter feed of Nick Punto, we can see that Beckett, Gonzalez, and Punto seem pretty happy to be on their way to Dodger-town, and it's for the best all around. They didn't like playing in Boston, and the Red Sox will have a ton more financial flexibility going forward.  It's been real, boys - happy trails.

Going, going Gonzo? Waiver Rules explained.

Back to California for Adrian Gonzalez?

With all the talk about Adrian Gonzalez being claimed off of waivers by the Dodgers, and the talk of a possible blockbuster trade (including the albatross contracts of Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett...?), I thought it might be a good time to go over the actual rules and customs regarding waiver trades. 

• After July 31st, all trades must be done through waivers, and if these players aren't acquired by August 31st, they are not eligible to play in the postseason.
• Teams can put any players on waivers, and they do not need to tell the players in question.
• Once a player is on waivers, other teams have 48 hours to put a claim in on that player.
• If multiple teams put in a claim, the team with the worst record in the league the player is currently on. If no teams from that league make a claim, the player goes to the team with the worst record in the other league.
• Once a player is claimed, their team has three options:

1. They can pull the player back. If this happens, he cannot be traded for 30 days.
2. They can work out a trade with the team that claimed him. Other players in the trade must also pass through waivers UNLESS they are not currently on a 40-man roster.
3. They can simply give the player to the other team, getting nothing in return, but the new team must pay the player's remaining salary.

• If no one claims the player, he can be traded to any team in the league.

Often, teams will put all twenty-five guys on the roster on waivers, just to see who tries to claim them,  and what they offer in return.  If it's not enough, players just get pulled back.  So the fact that Gonzalez was put on waivers is NOT that big of a deal - though the possible deal would likely be a huge one.

Stay tuned for further updates if/when the trade develops.

Time to turn things around... or else.

Even with a big performance from Clay Buchholz last night to snap the losing streak, the Red Sox can't seem to keep their collective heads above water. Yes, there have been injuries to several key players, but it's mid-June now, and rumors are starting to fly about the fast-approaching trading deadline.

I can't remember the last time the Sox sent off a big piece without getting a major league ready contributor in return - but if the rumors are true, that's exactly what's likely to happen.

Doubtless you've been watching the log jam since Kevin Youkilis returned from the disabled list, forcing Bobby V. to shuffle the lineup to make sure Youk, Adrian Gonzalez, and upstart rookie Will Middlebrooks all see some playing time.  The result has been Gonzo taking a lot of turns in the outfield - and it's not as if he's terrible (he's certainly much better - and more comfortable - than Youk ever was out there), but it's kind of ridiculous to be playing your Gold Glove first baseman in the outfield on a regular basis.

Of course, Youkilis is a Gold Glove first baseman, too, but his natural position (like Middlebrooks') is third base.  And now, with interleague play, David Ortiz is in the mix as well. No one is getting the playing time they should be, and it's looking more and more like Kevin Youkilis' days with the Sox are numbered.

The biggest question now is where he'll land, and what the Red Sox will get in return.  My money is on some prospects (though some QUALITY prospects), especially if we don't turn things around in a big way, and soon.

Optimism rewarded!

Due to a series of unexpected events, I was able to catch the last four innings of today's game - I had thought I was going to miss the whole thing.  So after running back to my room after an ESPN info session at Career Services, I immediately turned on the TV and was pleased to see that the Sox were leading 4-1 in the sixth inning.

I did pretty well with my morning predictions: Beckett went out there and pitched his heart out, going eight innings (and it would have been nine if the Sox half of the eighth hadn't been so explosive) giving up a single run on one hit and one walk.

The lineup certainly rose to the occasion, as everyone but Cody Ross had at least one hit - and Ross had a sacrifice fly for an RBI. Kevin Youkilis in particular had a great day, going 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs, while Adrian Gonzalez continued his early success with a 3-for-5 day and an RBI.  Sadly, my only incorrect prediction was about Pedey: he didn't manage to hit a home run today, but he did beat out an infield hit once I started watching.

The funniest moment of the day had to be Kelly Shoppach's first career stolen base (above) which included a failed slide and then a flop.  I wondered at Shoppach's presence over Salty when I saw the lineup this morning, but obviously Bobby V. knew what he was doing when he put the lineup card together.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows today, as Jacoby Ellsbury left the game with a shoulder injury after going 2-for-3 with an RBI to start the game. Here's hoping Golden Boy makes a quick and full recovery.

When we know more about the extent of Ellsbury's injury, I'll post an update here - after his killer season last year, the Red Sox cannot afford to lose Ells long term.

A look on the bright side.

I'm tempering my alarm, using every ounce of logic I can come up with to keep the hot bubble of panic from rising up inside me. It's only six games. It's one more win than we had last year at this time. We'll lose 5-of-6 in July and no one will notice.  Sometimes it works. More often, I get more creeping thoughts encroaching on my logic: The bullpen is in shambles. Bobby V is a nutcase (though admittedly nowhere near as nutty as Ozzie Guillen - but that's another post). Youkilis is falling apart. And on and on and on.

But enough of those crazy voices in my head (is it just me, or do you guys have them too?). There is plenty to be excited about so far this season, and if you - like me - sometimes have difficulty bringing these to mind, here they are in a convenient list.

1. Jon Lester is in mid-season form, and seems to be taking the whole "make up for September" thing very seriously. Lester has traditionally struggled in April, but he has absolutely dominated in his first two outings, and the fact that he doesn't have a win yet is just more evidence for how useless a stat the win can be.
2. Daniel Bard's first start was promising, though the surface numbers (5IP, 5 earned runs, and a loss) are less than ideal. Bard recorded six strikeouts, allowed just one walk, and induced eighteen swings-and-misses at his pitches. His BABIP was way above average (a fancy way of saying more balls fell in for hits than is normal - the law of averages should make up for that over a full season).
3. Dustin Pedroia looks ready, willing, and able to carry this team on his back all the way to the playoffs. The sparkplug second baseman began late rallies multiple times this week, seemingly willing the Red Sox to score runs. I don't think the Red Sox will be awarding a "C" to a player any time soon, but we all know who the leader is inside that clubhouse.
4. Adrian Gonzalez seems to have come to understand us. Last year he was calling for fans to relax after the 0-6 start.  Not so this year, after an off-season of Sox mea culpas, Gonzo was out there claiming that the first game in Toronto was a must win. Gonzo came prepared - he has six RBIs so far this season.
5. [This one is more personal, so I apologize in advance.] I am in the United States of America, in Red Sox Nation, where I can watch baseball on my TV.  At this time last year I was in Dakar, Senegal, praying that the power/WiFi wouldn't go out, and paying a classmate 10,000 CFA (about $20) to use his mlb.tv account. This is much better.

It's all going to be okay. This team is solid (though the bullpen is more suspect than I would prefer), and over the course of 2012 they are going to win a lot of games. There will probably be more drama than we've been used to since Manny took off, courtesy of Bobby V., but what's Boston baseball without a few shenanigans?

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Infielders

I'm doing this a little differently from last year.  Since there is a new manager who will have his own new ideas about the makeup of the lineup, I won't even try to guess what it will be for 2012.  So there will be four projections posts: this one for infielders (and DH), one for outfielders, one for starting pitchers, and one for relief pitchers.

1st base, Adrian Gonzalez:
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI
2011: 159 games, .338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, 27 HR, 117 RBI
2012 projection: 160 games, .301 BA, 387 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 105 RBI

 Last year's projections were calculated by James and his team with the assumption that Gonzalez would be playing in San Diego's cavernous Petco Park for 81 games, so it only makes sense that he surpassed those numbers in the friendly confines of Fenway Park.  James predicts a precipitous drop off from last year to this one - but I don't think it will be quite so steep.


2nd base, Dustin Pedroia:
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI

James consistently underestimates Pedey.  I guess it was understandable for last year, since no one was sure how he would bounce back from his foot injury in 2010, but I think we know what to expect from Pedroia at this point.  If he's not doing well, or if the team isn't, Pedroia WILLS himself to do better. I don't put much stock in "intangibles," but if they exist, the Sox second baseman has them.


3rd base, Kevin Youkilis:
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
2011: 120 games, .258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 80 RBI
2012 projection: 135 games, .281 BA, .389 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 86 RBI

It's no secret that Youk had a rough 2011.  In fact, given his sports hernia and bursitis in his hip (requiring surgery), it's impressive that he managed to play in 120 games.  Given his injuries and the Red Sox collapse, it's easy to forget the fantastic first half that Youkilis had, even being named to the AL All-Star Team.  Assuming all went well this offseason, expect a rebound season for Youkilis.

Shortstop, Marco Scutaro:
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
2011: 113 games, .299 BA, .358 OBP, .423 SLG, 7 HR, 54 RBI
2012 projection: 143 games, .271 BA, .341 OBP, .378 SLG, 9 HR, 59 RBI

Though somewhat short of spectacular, Scutaro has been one of the better Red Sox shortstops in recent memory (not injury-riddled like the now-departed Jed Lowrie, nor error-prone as the abominable Julio Lugo).  He's been quite steady, both in the field and at the plate, and he'll likely continue that pattern.


Shortstop, Jose Iglesias:
2011: 10 games, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, 0 HR, 0 RBI
2012 projection: 50 games, .241 BA, .277 OBP, .277 SLG, 0 HR, 10 RBI

Everyone knows that this job is Iglesias' for the taking.  If he hits as James predicts, we'll see more of Scutaro for 2012 - if he exceeds these projections, we'll likely witness the shift away from Scuaro and into the foreseeable future. 

Catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI
2011: 103 games, .235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 16 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 95 games, .245 BA, .311 OBP, .426 SLG, 13 HR, 45 RBI

Salty's playing time will likely depend on how skillful Kelly Shoppach turns out  to be as a backup.  As one of the only players pulling his own weight in September, I have faith in Saltalamacchia's ability to hold up the mantle of head catcher and game-caller that Jason Varitek held for so long.


Catcher, Kelly Shoppach:
2011: 87 games, .176 BA, .278 OBP, .339 SLG, 11 HR, 22 RBI
2012 projection: 85 games, .227 BA, .318 OBP, .431 SLG, 11 HR, 31 RBI

As you might remember, Shoppach was drafted by the Red Sox originally, before spending time in Cleaveland and Tampa Bay.  He bats righthanded, and hits better against lefties than Salty, but given the power in the Sox lineup, his playing time will probably depend more on how well the pitchers like throwing to him.


Catcher, Ryan Lavarnway:
2011: 17 games, .231 BA, .302 OBP, .436 SLG, 2 HR, 8 RBI
2012 projection: 77 games, .275 BA,.351 OBP, .527 SLG, 13 HR, 41 RBI

Obviously, the Red Sox are not going to be carrying three catchers, and the projections were calculated before the move for Shoppach.  If Shoppach struggles mightily, and Lararnway is tearing it up in Pawtucket, we might see him sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, expect to see the Sox give him some more time to develop.


Utility infielder, Nick Punto:
2011: 63 games, .278 BA, .388 OBP, .421 SLG, 1 HR, 20 RBI
2012 projection: 99 games, .243 BA, .329 OBP, .315 SLG, 1 HR, 23 RBI

I don't know too much about Nick Punto, but it's unlikely that he'll get the 99 games of playing time James predicted when it was assumed he'd be playing for the Cards.  If we can get passable offense and defense from our utility guy, I'll be happy.

Utility infielder, Mike Aviles (thanks to Paul for the reminder!):
2011: 91 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, 7 HR, 39 RBI
2012 projection: 101 games, .279 BA, .311 OBP, .423 SLG,  8 HR, 38 RBI

As Paul said in the comments, if Youkilis can't hack it for whatever reason, we'll be seeing quite a bit of Aviles this season.  The numbers are more than satisfactory from a utility man - but James is predicting a lot of playing time for him.


Designated hitter, David Ortiz:
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

Though the Red Sox struggled mightily in April, Papi escaped his usual struggles last spring, and surpassed most of James' predictions for him - here's hoping he can do that again, even at age 36.

[Final note: players not with the Red Sox at the beginning of 2011 do not have their 2011 projection numbers, because I left the 2011 Bill James Handbook in my dorm room - the Sox projections were recovered from last year's projection post.]

Win-win for Red Sox fans

[This video has always pissed me off a little, since I feel it implies that female baseball fans are somehow unable to appreciate the nuances of a pitcher's duel, and can only pay attention to the fireworks of homeruns.]

Anyway, you all know that THIS female fan has a place in her heart for games of all types, from no-hitters to blowouts, they all have something to offer, and tonight's game had a little bit of everything.

Josh Beckett went six innings, allowing four hits and one run (a longball by Mike Napoli that this "chick" certainly didn't "dig"), then Franklin Morales came in and tossed a perfect inning with two K's, and Matt Albers came in for the eighth, giving up a single run on two hits and a walk.  For some inexplicable reason, Jonathan Papelbon entered the game, recording a one-two-three ninth inning, though it was nowhere close to being a save situation.

The bats were alive and well tonight - finally - as Adrian Gonzalez went deep for the second straight game, and Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford notched homeruns of their own.  Crawford, Marco Scutaro, and the newly returned David Ortiz all struck doubles, and Ellsbury swiped his thirty-fifth stolen base. 

When it was all over, the Red Sox had scored thirteen runs, and everyone in the starting lineup had at least one hit.  Tonight's game was a win-win for Sox fans - whether you dig the longball, splendid pitching performances, or inexplicable calls to the bullpen.

Some things never change.

Back in Little League (or, in my case, elementary school softball), you stuck the player you didn't want handling the ball too much in right field.  When I was in second grade and the youngest player on my softball teams, they stuck me in right field, so I could be distracted by dandelions in peace (do you know how rare lefthanded pull hitters are at that age?).

Last night was a similar story.  The Sox stuck Adrian Gonzalez in right field, and (I'm sure) practically prayed he wouldn't have to make any difficult plays.  It worker: he handled the ball just once defensively, playing it on a hop and getting it back in.  A pulse-quickening ball hit in the eighth went over his head and bounced of the wall, but it was ultimately corralled by center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

Hopefully this plan proves more fruitful tonight... as good as the Phillies are, I am NOT okay with being swept by them. 

Terry Francona: Maverick

The current mid-week series in Philly is being billed by many of the talking heads in the sports business as a Fall Classic preview.  The Sox and the Phils are the toast of the bigs, despite the fact that Boston is a game and a half behind New York in the standings right now.

Tonight pitted Josh Beckett against Cliff Lee.  Though Cliff claimed the "W," I won't hold a grudge because I still worship the ground mound he walks on for spurning the advances of the Evil Empire during the offseason.  He's an honorary favorite for life, though that might change if we actually end up meeting him in October.

Despite the fact that I generally approve of Cliff Lee (and Philadelphia generally) I was very happy when Lee gacve up his first hit to the Red Sox, a single to Marco Scutaro in the sixth inning.  The only other Sox hit of the night was clubbed by Darnell McDonald, who doubled to lead off the top of the eighth inning.

We have John Lackey going for us tomorrow, and the big righty has been a bit of a mystery this season.  Personally, I'm inclined to cut him rather more slack than I normally would, because his wife Krista has been undergoing treatment for breast cancer, and I know how draining, distressing, and rattling it can be to watch a family member fight that battle.

Tito (a better maverick than John McCain ever was), has been hinting that he will combat the uncertainty of Lackey on the bump by putting David Ortiz in the lineup.  As all of you know, playing in Philly means Papi will have to play first base... thus sliding Adrian Gonzalez to right field. Yes, right field.

I could give you my perspective on this plan, but, as always, Dustin Pedroia's take is much more entertaining, so I'll leave it with this sentiment from my favorite second-baseman: "It'll be good offensively, but damn, I've gotta play second, first and right. That's a lot of ground to cover, man. I've got small legs."

Flirting with .500

Just when you think they're going to turn it around for good, and reach .500 for the first time since Opening day in Texas, they go and hand in a heartbreaker like last night's.  Jonny Lester wasn't himself last night,and he would be the first to say so, admitting that he let his emotions get to him during a first inning where he gave up three runs and the calls just weren't going his way.

Red Sox pitching gave up three home runs in last night's game, and the bats just couldn't keep up, despite homers from Adrian Gonzalez (2), and David Ortiz.  This was not the way the Sox wanted to open the series, with a loss, and Lester only able to pitch 5.1 innings, meaning that the bullpen was more heavily taxed than they would have hoped.

Tonight we have John Lackey going against Jesse Litch, before the Sox head south to New York for a three-game set.  There's an off-day in between, and the rotation has been shuffled so that Clay Buchholz,Josh Beckett, and Lester will pitch against the Bronx Bombers, and Daisuke Matsuzaka won't go until we face the Orioles next week.

Someday the Red Sox will get back to .500.... Maybe it will be this Friday.

No offense?

Not last night. The Red Sox lineup came through in a big way during last night's game against Jered Weaver and the Angels, scoring nine runs, six of them in the bottom of the seventh inning, to assure Clay Buchholz of his second win of the season.

The Red Sox were 11-for-36 on the game, with two walks and seven strikeouts, and they extended their prodigious winning streak to TWO GAMES.

All sarcasm aside, last night's game was a gem, complete with a grinding battle pitting Dustin Pedroia against Weaver to score the go-ahead run in the bottom of the fifth inning (essentially guaranteeing the win for Buchholz, as the Sox did not trail after the fifth).  Pedey fouled off nine pitches in a 13-pitch at bat, before shooting a single back up the middle to score Carl Crawford from third.

Pedroia is one of the only players I have ever seen who can literally WILL himself to win: to win at-bats, to win ballgames, and even to win honors like ROY or MVP.  The man clearly has a lot of talent, and as much as I make fun of "intangibles" in this space, Pedey might be the King of them (sorry, Jetes).

Pedroia also went on to walk in the seventh inning, and come around to score on Adrian Gonzalez's 3-RBI double (Youkilis would then double to score Gonzalez, and David Ortiz bashed his second homer, scoring Youk).

This team seems to be back on track, or at least headed that way, as Adrian Gonzalez has 18 RBIs on the season, and Carl Crawford is 4-for-8 in May - hopefully a glimmer of things to come.  Now, the pitching needs to get back on a roll, perhaps jump-started by Clay Buchholz's performance last night. Despite putting ten men on base on eight hits and two walks in 6.2 innings, Buch gave up just two runs - pulling a "quality start" out of a start that was slightly less than quality.

I was concerned last night about Buch, since he was going against the previously 6-0, .99 ERA Jered Weaver, but, like the day before, my worries were for naught.  Tonight the Sox have Jon Lester facing off against Dan Haren - I don't think I should worry too much, but if this team has taught me anything, it's that games aren't played on paper.

Off day thoughts...

Since I've last blogged, a lot has gone down in Red Sox Nation, most of it bad (I'm sorry for neglecting my duties here, but I'm on Spring Break on a beach in Africa, and internet is hard to come by). The Sox have yet to win their third game, and they currently have the worst record in baseball.  I know we all keep saying that they're too good for this, that something's gotta give eventually... but when is "eventually"? And how do we get it to come faster?

Sadly, I don't have any answers for you (other than this fantastic list of suggestions compiled by Peter Abraham over at the Boston Globe), but at this point we have no other recourse but to keep believing in this team.  We know they're better than this. THEY know they're better than this.

What needs to happen immediately, though, is for everyone to start hitting.  Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, JD Drew, David Ortiz, and, strangely enough, Jed Lowrie, are all hitting at an acceptable clip (Lowrie is leading the team at .438 in 7 games).  As for the other members of the team? They need to get their act together - soon, and preferably with runners in scoring position.

Champion.

The pitching rotation can take a lesson from Mr. Joshua Patrick Beckett on how to be a badass who beats CC Sabathia by stymieing a Yankees lineup that might be aging but is still formidable.  Jon Lester did a passable job the other night, holding the Rays to just three runs, but if the bats aren't going to get it done, three runs is too many.  Perhaps a rainout and day off will get things back in order: John Lackey will be skipped this time through the rotation, so he has extra time to get his act together while the other hurlers stay (mostly) on schedule.

They will snap out of this skid. They HAVE to snap out of this skid.  If it were possible to will a team to victory, Boston's devoted fans would make sure the Red Sox never lost a game, but we live in the real world.  The games have to be played, and the players have to prove themselves.  We're 4.5 games out of first with 151 left to play. I'd day it's definitely doable.

2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Lineup

I know, I know, this is what you've all been waiting for - and I have kept you waiting. In my defense, had I done this any sooner, I wouldn't have been able to include Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford, and their presence certainly changes things in a big way. Two weeks ago, I presented the Bill James projections for the rotation (58-48 from the front five), and it's high time I did the same for the lineup. Keep in mind, this batting order is just my guess - I'm sure it will change based on who the other team has pitching, who needs rest, and how everyone is doing, so take it with a grain of salt.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury: 2010: 18 games, .192 BA, .241 OBP, .244 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI

If Goldenboy lives up to these numbers, I promise to stop calling him D-Ellsbury, and maybe even become a fan. In all seriousness, you could ask for more form a leadoff hitter, but it would be pretty demanding. I could definitely live with this line from Ells.

SECOND BASE:Dustin Pedroia: 2010: 75 games, .288 BA, .367 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HR, 41 RBI
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI

Hubby is expected to be back to his old voracious, impressive, and loudmouth self in 2011, after a season that was a wash due to injury. Pedey hits best when he's batting second, and he seems to like it, so I expect Tito to keep him there.
LEFT FIELD:Carl Crawford: 2010: 154 games, .307 BA, .356 OBP, .495 SLG, 19 HR, 90 RBI
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI

Let's deal with the elephant in the room first: is Crawford worth $20+ million a year? Probably not, but I'm thrilled he's coming to Boston at any cost. I REALLY wish he was willing to bat leadoff, but apparently he hates it, and Tito's not one to go against a player's wishes, but he'll definitely be somewhere near the top. His numbers might be slightly better at Fenway than the Trop, but the difference won't be anything crazy.

THIRD BASE:Kevin Youkilis: 2010: 102 games, .307 BA, .411 OBP, .564 SLG, 19 HR, 62 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Kevin Youkilis is under-appreciated by this fanbase - and that's hard to do. He's wildly consistent, and his willingness and ability to slide across the diamond to third base next year is huge.
FIRST BASE:Adrian Gonzalez: 2010: 160 games, .298 BA, .393 OBP, .511 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Keep in mind that Gonzo's numbers are likely to improve due to the Fenway effect. He spent last season playing in Petco Park, where doubles go to die, but even if we only (ONLY!) get the numbers predicted by James, I'll be happy.

DESIGNATED HITTER:David Ortiz: 2010: 145 games, .270 BA, .370 OBP, .529 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

Expect the usual from Papi: he'll struggle mightily in April, and then find his stroke sometime in May, just as the howling about his $12.5 million salary reaches fever pitch. In the end, he'll produce what we've come to expect from him, which isn't too shabby when you really look at it.

RIGHT FIELD: JD Drew: 2010: 139 games, .255 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 22 HR, 68 RBI
2011 projection: 145 games, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .460 SLG, 22 HR, 77 RBI

Mike Cameron: 2010: 48 games, .259 BA, .328 OBP, .401 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI
2011 projection: 121 games, .239 BA, .327 OBP, .425 SLG, 18 HR, 58 RBI

Because the outfield is so lefty-heavy, I expect Cameron to get more than enough playing time. I'm coupling him with Drew for the purpose of these projections simply because Drew tends to miss significant time with injuries each year. On the other hand, it is a contract year for Drew, so maybe he'll surprise us.
SHORTSTOP:Marco Scutaro: 2010: 150 games, .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Jed Lowrie: 2010: 55 games, .287 BA, .381 OBP, .526 SLG, 9 HR, 24 RBI
2011 projection: 144 games, .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Either James is predicting that Lowrie will be a utility guy and get a lot of games at other positions, or he's guessing one of these two will be traded. Either way, both players have respectable lines - though Lowrie's are a bit better across the board. If Lowrie can manage to keep himself healthy (I know that's a big "if" given the history) he'll probably play more, but let's face it: they're both just place-holders until Jose Iglesias is ready.
CATCHER:Jason Varitek: 2010: 39 games, .232 BA, .293 OBP, .473 SLG, 7 HR, 16 RBI
2011 projection: 72 games, .228 BA, .324 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2010: 12 games, .167 BA, .333 OBP, .292 SLG, 0 HR, 2 RBI
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI

Not the best thing you've ever seen, but if Salty can come into his own defensively while Tek shows him the ropes, I think we can deal with this line. One more note: Salty hits righthanders better, while Tek is pretty good against lefties - I think that's what we'll see.


The very fact that I can plausibly design a lineup that has David Ortiz hitting sixth and JD Drew seventh makes me very excited. I'm sure Tito will figure things out, and his lineup will be fantastic - if we can just keep healthy (PLEASE?!?) this should be a fantastic team to watch.

It's all about the Benjamin$, baby.

You know, just once I would like to see a press conference introducing a player contain some honest candor. When the press asks you why you are on the podium in Boston, New York, or Philly instead of Tampa, Pittsburgh, or Kansas, tell it like it is:

"Honestly, it came down to the money. This club was willing to throw buckets of cash in my general direction, and I just want to be super-duper rich. Sure, it helps that they win and stuff, but it's all about the Benjamins, baby."

Executives, agents, and players are always telling us that baseball is a business when something bad happens - when a player doesn't get resigned, unpopular trades occur, etc. - but when there's a cause for celebration, all that talk gets swept under the rug, and it's all sunshine and rainbows and the love of the game.

Sure, it's nice when players get up their and wax poetic about Ted Williams or Carl Yastrzemski, or talk about how much they're looking forward to playing with the current members of the team, or how the fans' passion was a deciding factor. I'm sure all these things are true to a fault, and maybe it is every young Californian's dream to play in Boston or New York, but in the end, we all know it's the money and years that get things done.

"I appreciate the history of the franchise, but I also really just want more watches like this."

There is the occasional player that is willing to look closely at things besides the dollars, like proximity to family, or a winning atmosphere, but no one in their right mind will take (hypothetically) an offer of $1 million for one year from New York over $25 million over three years to play in San Diego.

I would just like to state that there is nothing wrong with this. It is human nature to always strive for the most - and the best - of everything. If Carl Crawford is coming to Boston, I don't particularly care if it's true that he values the fan involvement more than the millions of dollars, so long as he'll work hard and help us win.

It is, of course, in the player's best interest to suck up to the fans and the media, because no one wants to get booed by their own home crowd, and the media controls public perception of them to a large degree. The smart players start this butt-kissing when they're first officially introduced to the team. for instance, Carl Crawford was introduced at 10am, and by 2pm, he was addressing Sox fans on Twitter.

I'm sure Crawford is legitimately excited to finally play in front of a capacity crowd for 81+ games, but I'm equally certain that if Tampa Bay or Anaheim or anyone else had been able to top the Sox's offer, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

So why the cynicism? I'm not trying to ruin this joyous occasion for Red Sox Nation, just offering up a realistic view of the process. The system is built so that players will end up with the richest teams, and then praise them like the money didn't have anything to do with it. True Red Sox fans should be able to look at this and appreciate how damned lucky we are, because it doesn't matter how passionate your fans are if the money isn't there to back them up.

Twenty-three for me... Please?

I want an Adrian Gonzalez jersey. Right now. Unfortunately, as I mentioned yesterday, the first baseman's presumptive number is currently worn by outfielder Mike Cameron, who has no obligation to give it up (other than being slightly vilified by a rabid and excited fan base).

For all intents and purposes, Cameron has already agreed to give up #23 to Gonzalez for a small donation to charity, but these things have to be official. What does all this mean for fans? Nothing, unless you're like me and itching to get your hands on a Gonzalez jersey.

Neither the Red Sox online store through MLB nor the Yawkey Way store has Gonzalez T-shirts or jerseys on sale yet. So what, you might ask, they have the customize your own option. This is what I assumed, but apparently MLB has a rule that you're not allowed to use the name of a player on another team on your jersey.

Okay, but what about the guy who wants HIS name and HIS number on a jersey, and he happens to be named Gonzalez. Not exactly an uncommon name.

But I digress. The point of this is simply to implore MLB to get its act together and put those AGon jerseys on their (virtual) shelves in time for the holidays - and Hanukkah ends tomorrow night. It's not like MLB to pass up on money-making, and this one is a no-brainer: get on it, Selig!

Yo, Adrian [Gonzalez]!

It's official. Adrian Gonzalez (who, according to baseball-reference, has no middle name) is a Boston Red Sox. I've been pinching myself all day, and this is no dream - I can hardly contain myself.

I watched the press conference this morning (which started late, shocking), and was entertained and intrigued by turns. It's obvious that the Red Sox front office has coveted Gonzalez for years, almost to the point that Theo was more of a stalker than a scout. The baseball numbers are promising to say the least, and Boston.com's Extra Bases posted a very revealing graphic this afternoon:

[Click the graphic for the link]

Because Gonzalez has been hitting in Petco Park for the last five years, his numbers are an understatement - and they were nothing to sneeze at to begin with. The Padres ballpark is where doubles go to die, as illustrated by the graph above, which plots the location of Gonzalez's batted balls last year and overlays them in Fenway Park. As you can see, there are at least "15 balls at Petco that would have been hits at Fenway and most of those would have been for extra bases."

I'm sure most of you are aware that the lefthanded slugger was playing through some pain last year... I can't wait to see what Gonzalez will be able to do in a friendly ballpark when he's healthy.

Aside from that, I'm confident that Gonzalez will fit into the clubhouse with no trouble at all: he seems like a quiet, friendly, confident guy, and as Mike Cameron pointed out, it doesn't hurt that he's bilingual.

He also already has an impressive grasp on what it takes to be embraced by the fans of New England (being a top player doesn't hurt). Gonzalez had quite a few quotable quips during the presser, but the two that come most quickly to mind cover subjects near and dear to the heart of any true Boston fan. The first? "I'm very excited to be here in Boston. And I'm ready to beat the Yanks."

Slam. Dunk. Put down the Evil Empire and I'm with you. If that wasn't enough, he lavished praise on Ted Williams, and then mentioned that his "good friend" Dave Roberts had nothing but good to say about the Red Sox and their fans. Swoon:


The biggest controversy so far seems to be over jersey number. Gonzalez wore #23 in San Diego, but it currently belongs to Sox outfielder Mike Cameron. Cameron had initially wanted #25 or #44 when he came over, but #25 was Mikey Lowell's, and the memory of Jason Bay as #44 was still fresh in everyone's mind. Now, it's conceivable that Cameron will take #25, and give #23 to Gonzalez in if the new first baseman will make a donation to a Boys and Girls Club (via Boston.com).

So when can I get one of these jerseys? They're not on the Yawkey Way or Redsox.com online shops, and I was hoping to ask for one for Christmas. Hurry it up, MLB - you're losing money, and we all know that's not your style.

Yes, this is really happening...

More later.