Monday, January 16, 2012

2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Outfielders

[A continuation of this post which I began with the Bill James projections for infielders.]

Left field, Carl Crawford:
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI
2011: 130 games, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2012 projection: 155 games, .286 BA, .332 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 73 RBI

It's no secret that Crawford performed rather less well than we had hoped he would last season, and James' expectations seem to have been lowered in keeping with 2011.  The good news is that though Crawford only managed to steal 18 bases last year, James thinks he'll steal 34 next season.

Center field, Jacoby Ellsbury:
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI

I think it's safe to say that Ellsbury proved himself last year, but apparently James is expecting a backslide. Here's hoping Goldenboy proves him wrong.

[Possible] Right fielder, Ryan Sweeney:
2011: 108 games, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBI
2012 projection: 105 games, .285 BA, .353 OBP, .392 SLG, 4 HR, 36 RBI

Both last years numbers and the projections were for Oakland - and Sweeney's playing time is up in the air.  These numbers are solid enough for a fourth outfielder, but I'd like to see more power out of a permanent corner guy.

[Possible] Right fielder, Darnell McDonald:
2011: 79 games, .236 BA, .303 OBP, .401 SLG, 6 HR, 24 RBI

2012 projection: 113 games, .268 BA, .325 OBP, .320 SLG, 9 HR, 40 RBI

McDonald has been more than serviceable in the last few years - the right fielder job is still up in the air, and it stands to reason he'll get a shot at it.

Other possibilities for the outfield include Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin, both of whom spent last year in the minors, so they don't have projections in the 2012 Handbook.


  1. Ugh, those RF projections aren't pretty. Going into the off-season, I was hoping the Sox would sign someone who can mash and then just shift Crawford to right, because he probably has the speed to handle the position. But looking at the FA options, the best guys were probably JD Drew, Luke Scott and Magglio, all three of which are various degrees of washed-up.

    I think Kalish grabs the job eventually, just because the Red Sox decide to screw offense and just put out the best defensive outfield they can. But I also think that eventually, they trade for an OF who can actually hit.

  2. Kalish is pretty promising, and projects as a very good offensive force. Unfortunately his recovery time won't allow him back until June, so we're pretty stuck until then.

  3. And of course, Crawford is going to be hard pressed to do that well considering he's having wrist surgery in January. I hope they're not pressed to bring him back too early. That might no go over well after his first season here.

    I don't think Ellsbury can do any better, offensively, than he did last year. I do think he can be in the same neighborhood though. I just hope his defense is too.

    Right may be a problem as the season goes on. Should injury strike batters 3-6, whoever is in right needs to be able to produce. If they can keep the heart of the lineup healthy for long stretches though, "average" might just be good enough offensively & defensively.