2016 Bill James Projections: David Ortiz

Source

2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI

2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI

2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI

2013: 137 games, .309 BA, .395 OBP, .564 SLG, 30 HR, 103 RBI

2014 projection: 146 games, .287 BA, .384 OBP, .531 SLG, 30 HR, 98 RBI

2014: 142 games, .263 BA, .355 OBP, .517 SLG, 35 HR, 104 RBI

2015 projection: 144 games, .275 BA, .371 OBP, .517 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

2015: 146 games, .273 BA, .360 OBP, .553 SLG, 37 HR, 108 RBI

2016 projection: 142 games, .262 BA, .358 OBP, .488 SLG, 28 HR, 93 RBI

I started a draft of this post on December 29th of last year, but I haven't been able to bring myself to finish. This is the last projections post I will ever make for David Ortiz, as we're about to embark upon his final season in Major League Baseball.

By all accounts, between the tribute ceremonies and never ending parade of gifts, Ortiz is in for his typical fantastic season at the plate. Bill James and his team project Ortiz to come close to another 30 HR, 100 RBI season - not bad for the elder statesman of the league.

I much prefer this ending to an alternative where Ortiz overstays his productive years - how many incredible players have we watched decline before our very eyes? That being said, any ending to the storied career of Big Papi is far too soon. 

We were lucky enough to watch history being made by a living legend, year in and year out. That all stops in 2016 - but here's hoping the end doesn't come until deep into the postseason. The greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history deserves to do his thing one more time on the game's brightest stage.

2016 Bill James Projections: Craig Kimbrel

Source

2010: 4-0, 21 games, 1 save, 20.2 IP, 0.44 ERA, 16 BB, 40 SO
2011 projection: 5-2, 63 games, 25 saves, 63 IP, 2.57 ERA, 47 BB, 100 SO
2011: 4-3, 79 games, 46 saves, 77 IP, 2.10 ERA, 32 BB, 127 SO
2012 projection: 6-3, 74 games, 44 saves, 74 IP, 1.95 ERA, 39 BB, 121 SO
2012: 3-1, 63 games, 42 saves, 62.2 IP, 1.01 ERA, 14 BB, 116 SO
2013 projection: 5-2, 64 games, 39 saves, 65 IP, 1.38 ERA, 22 BB, 109 SO
2013: 4-3, 68 games, 50 saves, 67 IP, 1.21 ERA, 20 BB, 98 SO
2014 projection: 6-2, 50 saves, 72 games, 74 IP, 1.34 ERA, 22 BB, 120 SO
2014: 0-3, 63 games, 47 saves, 61.2 IP, 1.61 ERA, 26 BB, 95 SO
2015 projection: 5-2, 65 games,  56 saves, 64 IP, 1.55 ERA, 23 BB, 102 SO
2015: 4-2, 61 games, 39 saves, 59.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 22 BB, 87 SO
2016 projection: 5-2, 67 games, 45 saves, 66 IP, 1.77 ERA, 25 BB, 103 SO

The Criag Kimbrel trade was the very first big story for the Sox in an offseason full of them. When we found out that Kimbrel would be coming to Boston, we didn't yet know that 2016 would be David Ortiz's final season, or that he would soon be joined by David Price.

After the news broke regarding regarding the domestic violence investigation swirling around Aroldis Chapman, we learned that the Red Sox had previously been debating the merits of the two closers, ultimately abandoning their pursuit of Chapman when the domestic violence allegations came to light during a background check.

And so the front office traded a better prospect package to get Kimbrel, complete with more years of team control and a lack of criminal and league investigations.

So what will the Red Sox really be getting with Craig Kimbrel? Youth, for one thing. Former closer Koji Uehara will be 40 years old this season, and Kimbrel is twelve years his junior. While youth doesn't automatically equal health, Kimbrel has consistently been able to stay on the field and perform at a high level.

As far as the jump from National League to American League, Kimbrel has already gone on record saying he's looking forward to the challenge. While Bill James and his team calculated Kimbrel's 2016 projections before the trade, they're likely to give us a reasonable look at his production, and those numbers look pretty good.

Assuming Kimbrel gets a fair number of save opportunities, it looks like he'll turn out to be a wise investment.

2016 Bill James Projections: Pablo Sandoval

Source

2011: 117 games, .315 BA, .357 OBP, .552 SLG, 23 HR, 70 RBI
2012 projection: 144 games, .311 BA, .363 OBP, .525 SLG, 24 HR, 86 RBI
2012: 108 games, .283 BA, .342 OBP, .447 SLG, 12 HR, 63 RBI
2013 projection: 150 games, .298 BA, .356 OBP, .498 SLG, 22 HR, 88 RBI
2013: 141 games, .278 BA, .341 OBP, .417 SLG, 14 HR, 79 RBI
2014 projection: 140 games, .292 BA, .354 OBP, .466 SLG, 18 HR, 81 RBI
2014: 157 games, .279 BA, .324 OBP, .415 SLG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .287 BA, .344 OBP, .447 SLG, 18 HR, 82 RBI
2015: 126 games, .245 BA, .292 OBP, .366 SLG, 10 HR, 47 RBI
2016 projection: 147 games, .275 BA, .328 OBP, .424 SLG, 15 HR, 72 RBI

Here we are, two weeks from Opening Day(!), and there's a serious discussion over who's going to start at third base for the Red Sox. Pablo Sandoval will be paid $17.6 million in 2016, and he's in serious danger of losing his starting spot to Travis Shaw, a 25-year-old making just above the league minimum. 

The Red Sox would gladly swallow Panda's salary if it meant actually getting some production out of the third base spot - but do they have to dump Sandoval and replace him with Shaw to do it?

Last season wasn't up to Sandoval's usual standard offensively, but it was his abysmal defense that really hurt the team. Panda has never been a regular season powerhouse - his real strength has always come in October, but as the Red Sox learned, none of that matters when you're out of contention by July.

Bill James and his team project Sandoval to bounce back to his normal production at the plate in 2016, which is to say just about league average, perhaps a smidge higher or lower depending on which category you look at. But it looks like the Red Sox might not be waiting around to see if Sandoval can get himself back up to average - offensively or defensively.

Travis Shaw is having a tremendous spring, and while Sandoval's March production has been promising, the Red Sox are committed to putting the best possible starting squad on the field. That may or may not include Pablo Sandoval.

2016 Bill James Projections: Joe Kelly

Source

2012: 5-7, 16 starts, 107 IP, 3.53 ERA, 36 BB, 75 SO
2013 projection: 4-4, 0 starts, 67 IP, 4.16 ERA, 23 BB, 48 SO
2013: 10-5, 15 starts, 124 IP, 2.69 ERA, 44 BB, 79 SO
2014 projection: 6-7, 14 starts, 118 IP, 4.12 ERA, 41 BB, 81 SO
2014: 6-4, 17 starts, 96.1 IP, 4.20 ERA, 42 BB, 66 SO
2015 projection: 8-11, 28 starts, 172 IP, 4.19 ERA, 70 BB, 117 SO
2015: 10-6, 25 starts, 134.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 49 BB, 110 SO
2016 projection: 7-9, 25 starts, 144 IP, 4.25 ERA, 56 BB, 104 RBI

Despite his laudable ambitions for 2015, Joe Kelly fell far short of his Cy Young goal last season - and despite a better win-loss record than predicted, he failed to measure up to every other statistical projection.

There were flashes of brilliance, a few hints that Kelly might have a good (or even great) season buried somewhere deep inside. Most notably in August, when Kelly achieved the Holy Grail of Red Sox pitchers: a coveted - and warranted - comparison to Pedro Martinez. With an undefeated August, Kelly became the first Red Sox starter to earn six wins in a calendar month since Martinez did it in 1999.

The early season struggles and demotion to AAA Pawtucket were difficult to watch, but Kelly's late-season resurgence proved that the relatively young righthander has the resilience to stick it out and make the necessary adjustments to be a successful pitcher in the major leagues. 

I hate to lay even more responsibility at the feet of David Price, but his presence at the top of the rotation can only help the younger pitchers on the staff. He's proven in the past that he's a willing and able mentor for any teammates who might come to him for advice, and I have to believe that Kelly is the type of player to take full advantage of that.

If Kelly only manages the slight improvements projected by Bill James and his team for 2016, I'll admit to being a bit disappointed, seeing as he's already shown us he has the potential to be much, much better than that. Kelly will turn 28 this season, and while still on the young side, he should be entering his prime. The ceiling on Joe Kelly's potential is high, but he has a lot of minds to change in the course of reaching it.

2016 Bill James Projections: Jackie Bradley Jr.

Source

2013 projection: 148 games, .258 BA, .351 OBP, .419 SLG, 13 HR, 65 RBI

2013: 37 games, .189 BA, .280 OBP, .337 SLG, 3 HR, 10 RBI

2014 projection: 131 games, .248 BA, .329 OBP, .420 SLG, 15 HR, 55 RBI

2014: 127 games, .198 BA, .265 OBP, .266 SLG, 1 HR, 30 RBI

2015 projection: 129 games, .226 BA, .298 OBP, .341 SLG, 6 HR, 36 RBI

2015: 74 games, .249 BA, .335 OBP, .498 SLG, 10 HR, 43 RBI

2016 projection: 145 games, .253 BA, .329 OBP, .416 SLG, 14 HR, 62 RBI

Jackie Bradley Jr. started the 2015 season in limbo. Shipped off to Pawtucket out of the gate despite tearing it up in spring training, Bradley cycled through a few short trips to Boston before making the permanent jump at the end of July. 

Then in August something amazing happened. The guy we'd been told was all-field, no-hit began mashing. In 26 August games, Bradley hit .354, with a .734 slugging percentage. That's not a typo: Bradley had 28 hits, and 17 of them were for extra bases, including 5 home runs. Of course, he fell back to earth somewhat down the stretch as major league pitchers began to figure him out, but Bradley proved that he's much more than an excellent glove.

The highlight reel catches kept on coming between the big hits, and even as Bradley's offensive numbers leveled off as the season drew to a close, there was no member of Boston's highly regarded outfield more reliable than he was. 

The Red Sox are reportedly planning to start 2016 with Bradley in center field where he belongs, and putting Mookie Betts in right. It makes a lot of sense: even with Fenway's rather expansive right field, it's a waste to have the spectacular Bradley playing anywhere but center.

Bill James and his team project Bradley to make some gains over a full season in 2016. But the Red Sox will be content if he can perform at even an average level at the plate, seeing as he'll doubtless save plenty of runs with his glove.

2016 Bill James Projections: David Price

 

Source

2010: 19-6, 31 starts, 208.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 79 BB, 188 SO
2011 projection: 14-10, 32 starts, 217 IP, 3.57 ERA, 87 BB, 191 SO
2011: 12-13, 34 starts, 224.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 63 BB, 218 SO
2012 projection: 15-10, 34 starts, 226 IP, 3.31 ERA, 73 BB, 207 SO
2012: 20-5, 31 starts, 211 IP, 2.56 ERA, 59 BB, 205 SO (Cy Young winner)
2013 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 216 IP, 3.13 ERA, 63 BB, 202 SO
2013: 10-8, 27 starts, 186.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 27 BB, 151 SO
2014 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 218 IP, 3.01 ERA, 44 BB, 195 SO
2014: 15-12, 34 starts, 248.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 38 BB, 271 SO
2015 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 36 BB, 211 SO
2015: 18-5, 32 starts, 220.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 47 BB, 225 SO
2016 projection: 17-8, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 42 BB, 214 SO

After last year's (lack of) pitching fiasco, the Red Sox simply needed to go out this offseason and get themselves an ace. Luckily, the field was deep, including Zack Greinke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann. Red Sox Nation could feel confident that Opening Day would dawn with at least one of these guys taking the mound for the Red Sox.

I know many Red Sox fans would have preferred Greinke over Price. I was not one of them. We'll never know how Zack Greinke would have fared in a Red Sox uniform and in the AL East - and I'm guessing he much prefers it that way. Price, on the other hand, has pitched in the AL East for most of his career, and relishes the attention that comes with that.

As for the oft-cited enmity that existed between Price and Red Sox slugger David Ortiz? Anyone who thinks the two can't bury the hatchet to pursue the shared goal of a World Series Championship is seriously insulting both players' professionalism. I for one expect the two of them to show up to spring training sporting matching "Team David" t-shirts if it means the end of the discussion regarding their prior dislike for one another, and a renewed focus on winning.

At the end of the day, David Price is an ace. You can cite his less-than-impressive postseason numbers all you want (though please keep in mind we're dealing with small sample sizes and some curious managerial decisions regarding his use), but at the end of the day, he's a member of the Red Sox. Not to mention... you have to actually get to October before any of that is even a factor, something the Red Sox have failed to do quite often in recent years.

Bill James and his team project David Price to have another characteristically excellent season in 2016, complete with 200+ innings, and a strikeout to walk ratio over 5. David Price is an incredible athlete and competitor, and he's coming into Boston in 2016 with something to prove. I for one can't wait to watch.

2016 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB
2015: 105 games, .249 BA, .291 OBP, .426 SLG, 19 HR, 53 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .277 BA, .346 OBP, .462 SLG, 23 HR, 80 RBI

I think I'm in the minority of Red Sox fans when I say that I still don't hate the Hanley Ramirez deal. Especially given the (borderline tragic) news that 2016 will be David Ortiz's final year manning the designated hitter slot for the Red Sox, I actually like the Ramirez signing better than ever.

Was last year a relative disappointment? Sure. But Ramirez played just under 65% of a full season last year, and hit nearly 20 home runs. He only missed all that time in the first place because he got injured early on playing an unfamiliar position - one much more challenging than the one he'll be asked to play this season.

On Opening Day 2015, Hanley Ramirez hit two home runs, one of them a grand slam. While that kind of production is obviously unrealistic on a game-by-game basis, you'd be lying to yourself if you said that performance didn't make you practically giddy with anticipation over what Ramirez might accomplish in a Red Sox uniform.

No one, not even a fully healthy and committed Hanley Ramirez, will ever come close to duplicating the production David Ortiz has had in Boston. But without the burden of playing in left field - and eventually, without the burden of playing anywhere but the plate - Ramirez could change a lot of minds.

Bill James and his team project Ramirez to have a better season in 2016 than the one we endured last year. Ramirez himself has pledged his dedication to staying fit and dedicated for the upcoming campaign. Of course, he promised us the same thing last year, and actions speak louder than words. I genuinely believe that Boston could be great for Ramirez, and vice versa. Hopefully he spends 2016 doing his absolute damnedest to prove the haters wrong.

2016 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO

2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO

2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO

2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO

2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO

2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO

2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

2015: 7-7, 18 starts, 113.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 23 BB, 107 SO

2016 projection: 10-9, 28 starts, 171 IP, 3.47 ERA, 44 BB, 136 SO

I don't know about you guys, but I've long since given up the idea that clay Buchholz will ever be the kind of pitcher who can give the Red Sox 200 innings - and it seems that Bill James and his team have decided to give up the idea that he'll even come that close.

And you know what? That's okay. One of the many, many reasons the Red Sox needed to sign themselves an ace was to take the pressure to perform at that level off of Buchholz's shoulders. Buchholz's best season in recent years was in 2013, when he was the number 4 pitcher entering the World Series (following Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy). Even at the season's outset, when expectations were low, the undisputed "ace" was always Lester.

Buchholz has never seemed like a guy who handles pressure well. That, plus an inability to stay stay healthy (probably linked to an inability to keep any bulk on his thin frame) means that while he still shows flashes of brilliance, the addition of David Price to the rotation can only help Buchholz's overall performance.

2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

Source

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
2015: 156 games, .320 BA, .355 OBP, .421 SLG, 7 HR, 81 RBI
2016 projection: 152 games, .298 BA, .348 OBP, .425 SLG, 12 HR, 76 RBI

Without Xander Bogaerts and his similarly young and talented teammates (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., etc.), the entirety of 2015 would have been spent wallowing in despair over the absolute joke of a pitching staff and the injury bug that seemed to keep every veteran player off the field for extended periods of time.

Bogaerts really came into his own in 2015 - and with a monopoly on the shortstop position, he performed at the plate. It seems that some predictability on the defensive side of things helped his consistency on offense. Bogaerts won his first ever Silver Slugger award in 2015, after a season that saw him top several offensive categories among AL shortstops.

Bill James and his team project another good year at the plate for Bogaerts in 2016, with perhaps just a smidge more power. As always, the single best thing about Xander Bogaerts is his age: he won't be a free agent until 2020 - but don't get too attached, as he's represented by Scott Boras.

For the foreseeable future, though, Bogaerts will don a Red Sox uniform, and I for one plan to enjoy each and every minute.

2016 Bill James Projections: Dustin Pedroia

Source

2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI 
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI 
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI 
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI 
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
2014: 135 games, .278 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG, 7 HR, 53 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .361 OBP, .421 SLG, 12 HR, 70 RBI

2015: 93 games, .291 BA, .356 OBP, .441 SLG, 12 HR, 42 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .288 BA, .359 OBP, .427 SLG, 13 HR, 64 RBI

The 2015 season saw Dustin Pedroia take the field fewer times than any year since he broke his foot in 2010. Pedroia looked promising out of the gate, clubbing two home runs on Opening Day in Philadelphia, but would soon be sidelined with a hamstring strain, speanding the rest of the season bouncing on and off the disabled list.

Pedroia's all-in, every play, every day approach is endearing, but dangerous. He puts his body on the line in every situation - even when it might not be totally necessary, and as he gets older, that kind of dedication will only result in more pains, strains, and pulls. 

But the good news is that Pedroia often turns in an excellent season the year after an injury - possibly because his body has a little extra time to recover from the abuse he puts it through. Bill James and his team project Pedroia to stay on the field a bit more in 2016, and there's no question that Pedroia will be giving it his all each and every day.

2016 Bill James Projections: Mookie Betts

Source

2014: 52 games, .291 BA, .368 OBP, .444 SLG, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB

2015 projection: 154 games, .321 BA, .405 OBP, .493 SLG, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 40 SB

2015: 145 games, .291 BA, .341 OBP, .479 SLG, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 21 SB

2016 projection: 150 games, .309 BA, .375 OBP, .504 SLG, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 28 SB

Though Mookie Betts came in on the low side of most of Bill James' 2015 projections, I don't think many Red Sox fans could find much fault in his first full season in the big leagues. Betts blossomed into a great center fielder who holds his own at the plate, and he won't hit twenty-four until next October.

One of the things that might be overlooked in Betts is his plate discipline. The 2016 Bill James Handbook rates him as Very Patient at the plate, even singling him out in the following tidbit: "In 650 plate appearances, [Kris] Bryant whiffed* 448 times, or 303 more than Mookie Betts in four fewer plate appearances."

That's right, Betts swung and missed just 145 times in 654 plate appearances, striking out 82 times (Bryant struck out 199 times in 2015). Not a bad season when you can be very favorably compared to the Rookie of the Year.

But aside from his prowess at the plate, Betts has seamlessly transitioned from a second baseman into a center fielder. While it's easy to recall one of the several spectacular grabs Betts made in the outfield this season, he put in the work day in and day out, and was in the top 10 in runs saves for center fielders in 2015 with nine.

In a season where a lot of things went wrong, Betts and other young Red Sox players provided the bright spots. I can't wait to see what kind of a show he puts on in 2016.

*"Whiffed" in this context means swinging and missing, not striking out.