Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Beauty in Numbers

When it comes to baseball analytics and particularly newer metrics (defensive measurements chief among them), there's a tendency within the baseball world to split into two camps: that which embraces the new world order wholeheartedly and without question, and that which rejects new methods, preferring instead to rely on conventional wisdom.

These two groups battle it out on online message boards and comment threads, in sports bars and in the stands, and even in clubhouses and front offices across the game. In most major league cities, the verdict is in, and the geeks have won - any major league manager or GM that ignores his stat department won't have a job for long.

But does the issue really have to be so black and white? The stat people argue that their counterparts are stuck in the past, too stubborn to embrace tools to improve their teams' performances. The old guard feels as if numbers and equations threaten to overshadow the simple beauty of a knee-buckling curveball or a soaring home run.

From where I'm standing, both sides have their merits. Statistical measures make baseball unique and allow for another dimension of quantitative understanding. But I fell in love with the qualitative parts of the game: the pop of the catcher's mitt, the smell of hot dogs cooking at the ballpark, and the looks on the faces of the players when one of their teammates does something incredible.

I play fantasy baseball, and I read FanGraphs, and I'm a loyal consumer of everything Bill James puts out - but the game I love wouldn't be the same if it didn't play out in real time, on real grass (except in Toronto and Tampa Bay), with real people.

I love the numbers because they describe and (sometimes) predict what I see on the field. It seems that the most successful teams neither abandon the old, go-with-your-gut ways of scouting, nor scorn the ever-changing field of sabermetrics. No, success comes when the old guard embraces the new, and the front office listens to conventional wisdom and innovative new techniques.

Ten years ago, you would never see OBP on a graphic for a televised baseball game - now even the most casual fan expects it as a baseline. But the traditional box score staples are still around, and the combination makes for a more complete baseball experience.

And as someone who practically goes into mourning between November and February, I'm always looking for a more complete baseball experience.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Big things for Jackie Bradley Jr.


A simple glance at the box score wouldn't leave you with a ton of confidence about Jackie Bradley Jr.'s performance yesterday afternoon - but a simple glance wouldn't be doing him justice. After one game, Bradley has a batting average of zero, but with three walks (one after falling behind in the count to CC Sabathia, 0-2) his OBP is .600.

I'm perfectly aware that statistics like that are totally meaningless with a minuscule  one-game sample size, but a three walk game is a success no matter the context. It's easy to forget with all of the hype surrounding this rookie, but Bradley has never even played a game in AAA, or spent any time in left field. But obviously he was equal to the hype, since he waltzed right into Yankee Stadium on Opening Day, and scored two of the Red Sox runs with an RBI of his own, in addition to some great play in the field (pictured).

It's always fun (and ridiculous) to take Opening Day statistics and stretch them out over a 162 game season: for instance, the Sox would be on pace to go 162-0. If you averaged Bradley's Opening Day performance over an entire season, he would have no hits, 486 walks, 324 runs scored, and 162 RBIs. Certainly that would be an altogether absurd full season stat line, but I do see big things for the rookie this year.

In fact, I'm so confident that I added Jackie Bradley Jr. to my fantasy team last night. I had to sacrifice Lorenzo Cain, but I know it'll be worth it over the full season. There may not be any Red Sox baseball today, but I'm happily throwing myself into the euphoric and plentiful baseball-is-back coverage all over the internet. After all, if I survived six months of reflection about the worst Red Sox season in decades, I can certainly last one day on the sweet memories of beating New York on Opening Day in their house.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Bold predictions for Jon Lester


Jon Lester was the first Red Sox pitcher on the Yahoo.com fantasy baseball rankings, and 118th overall. Rankings are mostly based off of the player's previous season's performance, and Lester was certainly not his usual superb self in 2012.

Although easily lost in the fiasco of 2012, Lester's season was particularly poor by his lofty standards. Prior to 2012, the most games Lester had lost in a season was nine, and he managed to lose fourteen last year, while his ERA jumped a full run higher than it was in 2011.

Jon Lester is rightfully embarrassed about 2012, and September of 2011. He's coming into the season determined to prove that he can be the ace of the Red Sox staff, and a leader in the clubhouse in the absence of longtime teammate Josh Beckett. I took Lester a round or two earlier than I might have needed to, but I truly believe that this is going to be a monster year for him.

So far in spring training, Lester has thrown the ball very well, and he has the results to prove it. Interestingly enough, John Farrell has not yet named him as the Opening Day starter, but I can't imagine he'll pick someone else. Jon Lester has overcome a lot of obstacles in his career - bouncing back from his first losing season to contend for a Cy Young seems like the next logical step.

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Fantasy Draft


The live draft on Yahoo.com was a new experience for me, even though we used Yahoo for the last fantasy baseball league I was part of, because this time around I wasn't on a bus in Africa. I won't pretend I didn't miss the dusty van full of friends just a little, but it was nice to have the internet at my fingertips during the draft rather than just a printout of the top 300 players.

Anyway, I ended up drawing the first selection. I went back and forth about whether to take Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera, knowing that I wouldn't get another pick before everyone else in the league selected twice. I ended up with Trout, and I think it was a solid choice to go with a solid team.

Here's my lineup - feel free to leave your encouraging or disparaging remarks in the comments below:

C: Victor Martinez (Tigers)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (Dodgers)
2B: Ben Zobrist (Rays)
SS: Starlin Castro (Cubs)
3B: Evan Longoria (Rays)
OF: Mike Trout (Angels)
OF: Nelson Cruz (Rangers)
OF: Carlos Gomez (Brewers)
OF: Andre Ethier (Dodgers)
MI: Dan Uggla (Braves)
CI: Will Middlebrooks (Red Sox)
Utility: Kendrys Morales (Mariners)
Utility: Jason Kubel (Diamondbacks)
SP: David Price (Rays)
SP: Gio Gonzalez (Nationals)
SP: Max Scherzer (Tigers)
RP: Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
RP: Joel Hanrahan (Red Sox)
Bench: Jon Lester (Red Sox)
Bench: Brandon Belt (Giants)
Bench: Lorenzo Cain (Royals)
Bench: Marco Scutaro (Giants)

In twenty-two players, I've managed to represent fifteen of the thirty major league teams. I have three current Red Sox and four former Red Sox - I have to admit that Marco Scutaro was more of a sentimental pick than a practical one, though he was the 2012 NLCS MVP and part of the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

I'm counting on Jon Lester to bounce back from last year's mediocrity, and on Mariano Rivera to perform like the android I KNOW he is in his final season. But most of all, I'm counting on myself to remember to set the roster every day - because forgetfulness was my downfall the last time I played.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Is this the real life?


Today, I signed up to play fantasy baseball for the first time since my ill-fated foray when I was studying abroad. I wasn't planning to do fantasy baseball this year - I too often forget to make sure my roster is set every day, and then end up with guys on my bench who have monster games. But there's a league of people from my high school, and they needed another person, so I figured why not?

Of course, I'm totally unprepared, but I have about a week before our league draft to skim the Bill James 2013 Handbook for projections for players not on the Red Sox. If any of you have some suggestions, I'm all ears - leave them in the comments, or let me know on Twitter or Facebook!

[I'm also sorry for the brevity of this post; the spacebar on my computer is broken, so you can imagine how time-consuming the workaround for that is.]

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Fantasy Baseball 2011: I have no idea what I'm doing

Despite the fact that I will be missing a large chunk of the baseball season while in Senegal and Argentina, I've decided to try my hand at fantasy baseball for the first time. One of the kids on my abroad program decided to organize things, and we did our live draft on the 6-hour bus ride to a rural African village. We're an 11-person league, and a few of the participants were tuned out/uninformed during the draft (there was one girl who chose her team based on physical attractiveness and interesting names, and a guy who only drafted from the bottom fifty from our top-300 list), so even though I had the ninth pick I think I ended up with a pretty solid team.

If this is totally uninteresting to you, feel free to check back later in the week for a Red Sox post (OPENING DAY WAHHH!!!), but for now I'll just run down my 2011 fantasy baseball roster - feel free to leave comments or criticisms for me.

LINEUP:

1B Adrian Gonzalez: This was my first pick, and I'm excited for obvious reasons. I think Gonzalez will have a monster season at fenway Park, and unlike some of my competition, I don't think the shoulder surgery from last year will be an issue.

2B Brandon Phillips: The guy with the number 1 pick took Pedey in the second round, and then Robbie Cano and Ian Kinsler went before I picked, so I ended up with Phillips. I don't know too much about him, but his ranking on ESPN's top 300 list (51; 4th out of second basemen) along with his stat line from 2010 make me pretty excited about him.

3B Kevin Youkilis: Unsurprisingly, quite a few players ranked lower than Youk went before him in our draft (he was #19), and I capitalized. At this point, I don't think people will ever truly appreciate what a quality ballplayer Youkilis is: he's constantly turning in killer seasons, but he doesn't have the "look" of a star, and so he'll forever be underestimated. In terms of this fantasy baseball draft, I'm okay with that.

SS Troy Tulowitski: Somehow, Derek Jeter was taken before Tulowitski in our draft, despite the fact that Jeter is ranked 45 slots LOWER than Troy on our ranking sheet. There were a few Yankees homers in the draft, and I exploited that fact. Also, the fact that Tulowitski plays for the Rockies in the NL West meant that only 4 of 11 people participating had even heard of him. Yes, please.

C Matt Wieters: The would-be phenom hasn't lived up to his enormous hype in the last few years, but I have a good feeling about 2011. His power numbers went up last year from his rookie season, and he will be turning 25 at the beginning of the season, so he still has time to come into his own. I think this is the year he realizes his potential and becomes a star.

OF Colby Rasmus, BJ Upton, Aubrey Huff: Not a trio with too much star power, but they pack a good amount of punch between them. I'm pretty sure they were mostly overlooked due to the fact that they play for St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco, respectively, and very few people in the draft are hard core fans, so the big names went fast - though these three names should be bigger, in my humble opinion.

Starting Pitchers:

LHP CC Sabathia: Obviously excited about this. CC turns in nearly 20 wins every year, and is a reliable workhorse. I'm confident that he'll be a fantastic pick for me. Though it will be hard to root for a Yankee to win. Speaking of which...

RHP Phil Hughes: Someone please explain to me why Hughes isn't the number two guy in the Yankees rotation? Anyway, I think 2011 will be a big year for him, and, by extension, a big year for me. He was one of their two reliable starters last year, and he's heading into his age 25 season - fortunately for my fantasy team, and unfortunately for the Red Sox, I see big things in Hughes' future.

RHP Clay Buchholz: So Clay was only ranked at #140, and I took him before we had even gotten all the way through the top 100. I was judged by my fellows, but I absolutely do not regret this pick. Despite all the speculation about his luck last year with BABIP, but I don't foresee too much of a downslide. Bill James might not be too optimistic about Buch's 2011 (13-9, 3.54 ERA), but I am.

RHP Ubaldo Jimenez: I'm pretty sure 80% of the people participating in the draft had no idea who Jimenez is, which certainly worked in my favor. After winning 19 games in 2010 (while pitching in the thin air of Coors Field), I see him being a pretty consistent contributor to my squad.

LHP CJ Wilson: After being moved into the Rangers rotation last season, Wilson really came into his own, going 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA. In addition to on-field contributions, Wilson is quite the clubhouse character. I know this doesn't actually help with the whole fantasy baseball thing, but I find Wilson endlessly amusing (follow him on Twitter), so I'm glad he's on my roster.

Relief Pitchers:

RHP Neftali Feliz: Since Feliz is actually going to remain the Rangers' closer, I'm pretty pumped to see his stats rack up. Feliz, the AL Rookie of the Year in 2010, saved 40 games last season, and struck out 71 batters in 69.1 innings - and he's only heading into his age 23 season.

RHP Brad Lidge: This one is a gamble on my part, given Lidge's age (and that he's starting 2011 on the disabled list), but I think he still has something left in the tank - it was only 2 years ago that he was perfect, saving 41 games in the process. Last year he saved 27 games, so if he can do that again - and the Phils should give him plenty of opportunity - I'll be happy.

RHP Daniel Bard: This one was a no-brainer for me - even though he was ranked pretty low, and even though he won't get many save opportunities with Paps and Jenks ahead of him, I'm confident he'll once again be racking up the strikeouts.

RHP Rafael Soriano: Yes, another Yankee. Soriano signed his three-year, $35 million contract this offseason with New York - to be the set-up man to closer Mariano Rivera. He should get a lot of innings this season with all the question marks in the Yankees' rotation, so hopefully he can continue the excellence he displayed in 2010 (45 saves for the Rays) in his new role and under new pressure in the Bronx.

Bench Players:

OF Vernon Wells: The former Blue Jay had 31 home runs last year - if healthy, he should perform well for the Angels.

OF/DH Manny Ramirez: This was mostly a nostalgia pick. After last year's injury fiasco and taking a bargain-basement deal (in Manny-terms, that is) to come to Tampa Bay, it would be easy to write off the aging slugger. However, I think that with the chance to DH more often to rest his ever-ailing knees, and with the presence of old friend Johnny Damon to keep him grounded, Manny might actually have a chance at a productive season.

LHP Mark Buehrle: Not the best pitcher out there, but he's pretty consistently turned in a dozen or so wins for the last decade or so, which makes me feel okay about having him as my backup. Plus, he shows flashes of brilliance now and then, so he has the potential to be totally domination at times.

So what do you guys think? I'm sure many of you are avid fantasy baseball players, and know what kinds of things I should have looked at. We're playing through Yahoo!, so I don't exactly know how points are calculated, but it's just for fun - and bragging rights - so let me have it in the comments if you think I made any major miscalculations.