Sayonara, Fangirls?

There's been a lot of talk lately about what it would take to pry Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego, and because new GM Jed Hoyer's knowledge of the Red Sox farm system rivals that of Theo himself, it's going to be a lot. There will be no Heathcliff Slocumb for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek type of deal this time around: we will have to give up some truly valuable pieces to get one in return.

What type of valuable pieces, you ask? That's exactly the point of this post: we've all gotten used to hearing Clay Buchholz's name thrown out there, and though he's had some success on the major league level, the Sox are pitching rich (for now), so most fans are willing to part with him for the right piece. Now we're hearing whispers that a player we've been seeing daily for over a year might be part of the package... and not just any player, but the downright dreamiest man to don a Red Sox uniform since... well, at least since his devoted screaming fangirls (and fanguys - we don't discriminate here at Off the Monster) jumped on the bandwagon in 2004.

Personally, I wouldn't be all that torn up if Ellsbury got shipped off to San Diego. This might be unfair of me, but I just cannot stand a large percentage of fans who name him as their favorite player. Sure, there are those who rattle off his SB% (MUCH more important than the number of stolen bases, if you ask me), rising OPS, and improved plate discipline (he took eight more walks this year than in 2008!), and are legitimately excited about him as an athlete. I despise the term "Pink-Hatter," because I find it derogatory to female fans (maybe they just like the color!), but Ellsbury fangirls generally display the type of behavior expected of a stereotypical "Pink-Hatter," namely, a lack of knowledge about the game in general or the Red Sox in particular.

Are these women at a Beatles concert or a baseball game? CALM DOWN.

Do I think Adrian Gonzalez is worth a package including Buchholz, Ellsbury, Kelly, and Lars Anderson? Yes. In an instant. Prospects are exactly what their title implies: chances, opportunities, potential. You never know if a minor-league stud will pan out, and Gonzalez is as close to a sure thing as you can get in the current market.

I'll admit to having a personal agenda for supporting Golden Boy's inclusion in a deal: if it allows me to interact with just one less drunken fangirl per Fenway visit, I'll support it, but I also truly believe Gonzalez is worth the trade. The dynamic is very interesting, because we all know that Theo likes to trade high on his prospects, getting more in return than he is giving up, but in this case, the other side knows exactly everything he does.

Honesty's uncomfortable, eh Theo?

This is probably a deal that will happen (if it does) once the Padres inevitably start to falter. It would take major, um, guts, for a new GM such as Hoyer to trade a franchise player in his first months on the job. Hoyer is in the uncommon position of knowing Theo's thoughts and motives while negotiating, which is intriguing, to say the least. Get it done, Theo.... please?

Looking Ahead...

I've spent a lot of time lately looking back on previous seasons, and while nostalgia has its place, I think it's time to look ahead... I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to pitchers and catchers already (even as I root for the Phils in the Fall [Almost Winter?] Classic).

People are already talking about next year as a "rebuilding year," seeing as we have some aging pieces and a limited free agent market to work with. This fits with what we know of Theo: he would happily sacrifice a year now for a sustained run of success later. However, this is where Theo and his former mentor, Larry Lucchino, disagree... Lucchino wants the sellout streak to continue: he doesn't want to wait, but to have success NOW (sounds familiar, doesn't it *cough*Steinbrenner*cough).


It will be interesting to see how this plays out, because the free agent class this year is positively anemic, and if Jason Bay wants the highest payday, he won't be playing in front of the Green Monster next season. If the aging players on the team (Lowell, Papi) can't produce, we're in big trouble. However, we do have the chips to land something big on the trade market, if Theo wants to pull the trigger... If you ask me, it won't happen, unless old friend (and new Padres GM) Jed Hoyer wants to talk Adrian Gonzalez.

That particular scenario is interesting, as Hoyer has extensive knowledge, not only of the Red Sox farm system, but what Theo thinks each prospect is worth. This could be detrimental to a possible trade, as the Sox try to sell high, but it could become one of those rare deals that works out well for both sides (Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, anyone?).

Anyway... Here's my guess (wish) at what the lineup might look like on Opening Day next year:

Ellsbury (CF) - A no-brainer... even if there's another unforeseen leadoff option, Ellsbury will be manning the outfield at Fenway next season. Hopefully he continues to build off a successful sophomore season (and works on his plate discipline).

Pedroia (2B) - If I was ever comfortable making a promise on the presence of a player, it's here. Pedroia is a great player and clubhouse presnece, and he's signed on short money for the foreseeable future. As an established star and fan-favorite, Theo would be a fool to trade him for anything short of Albert Pujols.

V-Mart (C) - Though it hasn't happened yet, the Sox will pick up Victor's 2010 option. Hopefully he works on throwing out baserunners, and makes the majority of starts behind the dish (please Varitek, swallow your prode and retire).

Youk (3B) - Youkilis is another player I feel will definitely be with the team next year: between his flexibility, consistently sparkling defense, and offensive numbers (he has a reasonable contract as well), Youk isn't going anywhere.

Adrian Gonzalez (1B) - This one is wishful thinking... But just what would it take to pry him out of San Diego? Casey Kelley? Daniel Bard? Clay Buchholz? Luis Exposito? Some combination, I'm sure...

Lowell/Ortiz (DH) - The Sox cannot trade David Ortiz unless he wants to go, as he is a 10/5 player... They would also have to eat a LOT of Lowell's contract to ship him somewhere, and he had the better numbers of the two. Hopefully, at least one of them will be able to produce.

[Bay/Reddick/Damon?] (LF) - Here's the mystery. The inimitable Chad Finn suspects that Bay will sign elsewhere, and he's usually pretty shrewd in his assumptions (he was the only major writer that predicted Teixeira to New York). People are throwing around Damon as a possibility, as his contract in New York is up, and if all else fails, I wouldn't be shocked to see Theo toss Reddick out there, though in my humble opinion he needs a little more seasoning in the minors.

Drew (RF) - For all the abuse JD gets, he's relatively consistent (and he was even mostly healthy this year!). Drew can carry a lineup when he gets hot, and has pitch recognition second to none (he's just quieter than about it than Youk). It IS strange that he's our team's highest paid player, though, at $14 million.

Alex Gonzalez (SS) - If the Sox can't find an upgrade, I could live with another year of Alex's defense (he just makes shortstop look so PRETTY), and if he swings the bat nearly as well as he did down the stretch, it's worth it.

That's what I think... Do you agree with me? Think Theo will pull together a blockbuster? Some thing like Buchholz, Ellsbury, and Casey Kelley for Prince Fielder? Let me know in the comments.