2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Lineup

I know, I know, this is what you've all been waiting for - and I have kept you waiting. In my defense, had I done this any sooner, I wouldn't have been able to include Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford, and their presence certainly changes things in a big way. Two weeks ago, I presented the Bill James projections for the rotation (58-48 from the front five), and it's high time I did the same for the lineup. Keep in mind, this batting order is just my guess - I'm sure it will change based on who the other team has pitching, who needs rest, and how everyone is doing, so take it with a grain of salt.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury: 2010: 18 games, .192 BA, .241 OBP, .244 SLG, 0 HR, 5 RBI
2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI

If Goldenboy lives up to these numbers, I promise to stop calling him D-Ellsbury, and maybe even become a fan. In all seriousness, you could ask for more form a leadoff hitter, but it would be pretty demanding. I could definitely live with this line from Ells.

SECOND BASE:Dustin Pedroia: 2010: 75 games, .288 BA, .367 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HR, 41 RBI
2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI

Hubby is expected to be back to his old voracious, impressive, and loudmouth self in 2011, after a season that was a wash due to injury. Pedey hits best when he's batting second, and he seems to like it, so I expect Tito to keep him there.
LEFT FIELD:Carl Crawford: 2010: 154 games, .307 BA, .356 OBP, .495 SLG, 19 HR, 90 RBI
2011 projection: 149 games, .300 BA, .350 OBP, .453 SLG, 14 HR, 93 RBI

Let's deal with the elephant in the room first: is Crawford worth $20+ million a year? Probably not, but I'm thrilled he's coming to Boston at any cost. I REALLY wish he was willing to bat leadoff, but apparently he hates it, and Tito's not one to go against a player's wishes, but he'll definitely be somewhere near the top. His numbers might be slightly better at Fenway than the Trop, but the difference won't be anything crazy.

THIRD BASE:Kevin Youkilis: 2010: 102 games, .307 BA, .411 OBP, .564 SLG, 19 HR, 62 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .294 BA, .398 OBP, .507 SLG, 25 HR, 95 RBI

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Kevin Youkilis is under-appreciated by this fanbase - and that's hard to do. He's wildly consistent, and his willingness and ability to slide across the diamond to third base next year is huge.
FIRST BASE:Adrian Gonzalez: 2010: 160 games, .298 BA, .393 OBP, .511 SLG, 31 HR, 101 RBI
2011 projection: 161 games, .285 BA, .378 OBP, .512 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Keep in mind that Gonzo's numbers are likely to improve due to the Fenway effect. He spent last season playing in Petco Park, where doubles go to die, but even if we only (ONLY!) get the numbers predicted by James, I'll be happy.

DESIGNATED HITTER:David Ortiz: 2010: 145 games, .270 BA, .370 OBP, .529 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

Expect the usual from Papi: he'll struggle mightily in April, and then find his stroke sometime in May, just as the howling about his $12.5 million salary reaches fever pitch. In the end, he'll produce what we've come to expect from him, which isn't too shabby when you really look at it.

RIGHT FIELD: JD Drew: 2010: 139 games, .255 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 22 HR, 68 RBI
2011 projection: 145 games, .263 BA, .370 OBP, .460 SLG, 22 HR, 77 RBI

Mike Cameron: 2010: 48 games, .259 BA, .328 OBP, .401 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI
2011 projection: 121 games, .239 BA, .327 OBP, .425 SLG, 18 HR, 58 RBI

Because the outfield is so lefty-heavy, I expect Cameron to get more than enough playing time. I'm coupling him with Drew for the purpose of these projections simply because Drew tends to miss significant time with injuries each year. On the other hand, it is a contract year for Drew, so maybe he'll surprise us.
SHORTSTOP:Marco Scutaro: 2010: 150 games, .275 BA, .333 OBP, .388 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBI
2011 projection: 153 games, .266 BA, .339 OBP, .374 SLG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Jed Lowrie: 2010: 55 games, .287 BA, .381 OBP, .526 SLG, 9 HR, 24 RBI
2011 projection: 144 games, .270 BA, .361 OBP, .467 SLG, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Either James is predicting that Lowrie will be a utility guy and get a lot of games at other positions, or he's guessing one of these two will be traded. Either way, both players have respectable lines - though Lowrie's are a bit better across the board. If Lowrie can manage to keep himself healthy (I know that's a big "if" given the history) he'll probably play more, but let's face it: they're both just place-holders until Jose Iglesias is ready.
CATCHER:Jason Varitek: 2010: 39 games, .232 BA, .293 OBP, .473 SLG, 7 HR, 16 RBI
2011 projection: 72 games, .228 BA, .324 OBP, .386 SLG, 33 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
2010: 12 games, .167 BA, .333 OBP, .292 SLG, 0 HR, 2 RBI
2011 projection: 110 games, .249 BA, .323 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 43 RBI

Not the best thing you've ever seen, but if Salty can come into his own defensively while Tek shows him the ropes, I think we can deal with this line. One more note: Salty hits righthanders better, while Tek is pretty good against lefties - I think that's what we'll see.


The very fact that I can plausibly design a lineup that has David Ortiz hitting sixth and JD Drew seventh makes me very excited. I'm sure Tito will figure things out, and his lineup will be fantastic - if we can just keep healthy (PLEASE?!?) this should be a fantastic team to watch.

Yo, Adrian [Gonzalez]!

It's official. Adrian Gonzalez (who, according to baseball-reference, has no middle name) is a Boston Red Sox. I've been pinching myself all day, and this is no dream - I can hardly contain myself.

I watched the press conference this morning (which started late, shocking), and was entertained and intrigued by turns. It's obvious that the Red Sox front office has coveted Gonzalez for years, almost to the point that Theo was more of a stalker than a scout. The baseball numbers are promising to say the least, and Boston.com's Extra Bases posted a very revealing graphic this afternoon:

[Click the graphic for the link]

Because Gonzalez has been hitting in Petco Park for the last five years, his numbers are an understatement - and they were nothing to sneeze at to begin with. The Padres ballpark is where doubles go to die, as illustrated by the graph above, which plots the location of Gonzalez's batted balls last year and overlays them in Fenway Park. As you can see, there are at least "15 balls at Petco that would have been hits at Fenway and most of those would have been for extra bases."

I'm sure most of you are aware that the lefthanded slugger was playing through some pain last year... I can't wait to see what Gonzalez will be able to do in a friendly ballpark when he's healthy.

Aside from that, I'm confident that Gonzalez will fit into the clubhouse with no trouble at all: he seems like a quiet, friendly, confident guy, and as Mike Cameron pointed out, it doesn't hurt that he's bilingual.

He also already has an impressive grasp on what it takes to be embraced by the fans of New England (being a top player doesn't hurt). Gonzalez had quite a few quotable quips during the presser, but the two that come most quickly to mind cover subjects near and dear to the heart of any true Boston fan. The first? "I'm very excited to be here in Boston. And I'm ready to beat the Yanks."

Slam. Dunk. Put down the Evil Empire and I'm with you. If that wasn't enough, he lavished praise on Ted Williams, and then mentioned that his "good friend" Dave Roberts had nothing but good to say about the Red Sox and their fans. Swoon:


The biggest controversy so far seems to be over jersey number. Gonzalez wore #23 in San Diego, but it currently belongs to Sox outfielder Mike Cameron. Cameron had initially wanted #25 or #44 when he came over, but #25 was Mikey Lowell's, and the memory of Jason Bay as #44 was still fresh in everyone's mind. Now, it's conceivable that Cameron will take #25, and give #23 to Gonzalez in if the new first baseman will make a donation to a Boys and Girls Club (via Boston.com).

So when can I get one of these jerseys? They're not on the Yawkey Way or Redsox.com online shops, and I was hoping to ask for one for Christmas. Hurry it up, MLB - you're losing money, and we all know that's not your style.

The 2010 Parade of Carnage

I wasn't happy after last night's joke of a game. However, neither did I feel the overpowering urge to scream and storm and throw things that a late-season loss to a divisional rival usually brings. When the last out was made, all I felt was a bitter sort of resignation - for all intents and purposes, this team was down and out long ago, and somehow they clung to hope far longer than they had any right to under the circumstances.

The Boston Red Sox are currently nine games behind the Yankees for the AL East title, and 7.5 behind the Rays in the Wild Card race. There are just 23 games left in the 2010 season, and 11 of those are against legitimate playoff contenders... Once, the Red Sox would have counted themselves among such fighters, but no longer. The 2010 Parade of Carnage dashed our collective playoff hopes long before we were ready to admit defeat. (And to be honest, I won't be ready to throw in the towel until the math says I have no choice.)

I could go through and list all of the injuries, player by player, but it's been done. Instead, I will SHOW how the injuries piled up, through screengrabs from some reputable Red Sox websites:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

On July 11th, the Sox had a whopping eleven players on the disabled list (plus Junichi Tazawa, who was hurt in Spring Training). Since then, one has been traded (MDC, to the Rockies), one released (Jeremy Hermida), two are gone for the season (Pedroia and Ellsbury), six are back on the roster and producing some semblance of good baseball, and one (Josh Beckett) is stinking up the joint, despite his apparent "health."

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

On August 5th, we recieved word that Boston's most consistant hitter would be out for the season after a freak accident in the batter's box that would require him to undergo thumb surgery. At the time, few realized what a crushing blow this was, as several players were supposed to be on their way back, but Youk's absence has hurt us both on the scoreboard and in the field.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Within twenty minutes on August 18th, we were informed that two-thirds of our starting outfield would be AWOL until next Spring. Cameron's loss was somewhat glossed over because his stats left a lot to be desired this season, but keep in mind he was battling a severe sports hernia for much of the campaign, and never really got into a groove. Ellsbury, of course, is the type of dynamic player who really might have made a difference in some of this season's close games.

(via boston.com's Extra Bases blog; click to enlarge)

Then the most crushing blow of all: despite having returned for two games, Dustin Pedroia's foot was not healing, and so he would be lost for 2010. Besides being an excellent player, Pedey is the heart and soul of that clubhouse - the Sox couldn't be out of it until he SAID they were out of it... and Pedey doesn't admit defeat.

And so by today, the Sox DL looks like this:

(via redsox.com; click to enlarge)

Fewer players on the list, but none of them are walking through that door. Of the Opening Day Starters, four of nine are on that list. We've lost three Gold Glovers and the reigning stolen base champ; three All-Stars, and three former World Series winners. The worth of these four players absolutely cannot be overestimated.

If you look over the total missing players for the year, things get even more bleak: of the nine players on the field for the first pitch of 2010, six have spent at least 15 days on the disabled list. Shockingly, the only outfielder to stay healthy was JD Drew. Yes, JD Drew was the Boston outfield's version of Iron Man.

The ridiculous spate of injuries made writing the lineup card a daily adventure for Terry Francona...

(via baseball-reference.com; click to enlarge)

This is ridiculous. The Sox couldn't even be healthy enough to have seven games with the same lineup. SEVEN!

This team put up a hell of a fight - guys most of us had never heard of this time last year made real contributions, but in the end it doesn't seem to be enough. And for those of you ripping Theo for not getting reinforcements before the trade deadline, where was he supposed to get players of such pedigree? And most of them were supposed to come back; if they had in fact been healthy, where do you put the new additions?

No, you can't blame Theo, or Tito, or even the players. You can blame sheer dumb luck, and playing in a division with two of the best teams in baseball (and indisputably the one richest). Some of you are too young to remember that the Sox were not always perennial contenders (I'm on the cusp of that one), so let me remind you of the time-tested phrase of fanbases past: "Wait til next year."

State of the Sox: Bridge to Nowhere?

It is May 11. I'm smack in the middle of finals week (hence the long absence - sorry!), but I can't focus on the philosophical leanings of fictional Russians, or make convoluted connections between the GI Bill and John Coltrane. All I can think of is the State of the Sox.

Gone is the wonderful month of April, when all bad performances can be brushed away with the simple phrase, "Relax, it's early." Well, it's no longer early, and the Sox have been at or below .500 for the majority of the season. What gives? Was the "bridge" year that Theo spoke of in the offseason baseball's version of the bridge to nowhere?



At this point in the season, the game-by-game, analyze everything approach taken by fans in the first weeks has mostly dissipated. Not so this year: after the four-game sweep of the Angels, we were playoff material; two games lost to the Yankees later, and we were destined to finish below the lowly Orioles.

So what's the issue? In a word, it's injuries. The Red Sox have played a scant 6 games with their Startin Day outfield, as both Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury have been out for nearly a month with unforeseeable injuries. I mean, come on: cracked ribs, kidney stones, and a sports hernia? Lady Luck is not on our side so far. As for the struggling defense, please leave Bill Hall alone - he was never meant to start in center field, and Adrian Beltre, though error prone thus far, traditionally improves over the course of a season.

The lineup seems to be hitting its stride - thank god for Marco Scutaro's ability to hit leadoff, eh?

And his ability to do awesome things like this...

At this point, the season could go either way... I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox won it all. But I would be equally unsurprised if they missed the playoffs. If you can say anything for this team, it's unique. I'm excited to see how things turn out - they play 162 for a reason.

The New Moneyball

"The new Moneyball player looks a lot like Boston's new centerfielder: fast, athletic, a slick fielder who even at age 37 and for $8 million a year is a bargain. 'Mike Cameron played on two of the 10 best defensive teams of all time [the 2001 Marlins and the 1999 Reds],' says [Tony] Blengino. 'Every team he's played for has gotten better. Every team he's left collapsed when he left. No, Mike Cameron's not a Hall of Famer. But he's clearly a winning baseball player.'" -p. 67, Sports Illustrated (March 1, 2010)


Hello skeptics! I know you're out there: you Red Sox fans who scoff at Theo's newfound love for run prevention and predict a downfall of epic proportions. I disagree with you. The players disagree with you. The front office (obviously) disagrees with you. But I know that won't sway you, so maybe this will: Sports Illustrated recently ran a six page article [in the Olympic issue, no less!] on the "new Moneyball," which, in case you were wondering, is defense and run prevention.

I'm guessing there's a lot of overlap in the "doubt Theo" and "Moneyball is all about OBP and Billy Beane is a failure" demographics, so before I start, I'm going to make some clarifications. Moneyball was not about OBP, but rather the exploitation of undervalued commodities within baseball. In the early days of the last decade, OBP was all but ignored, and so those who paid attention to it (Hey there, Billy Beane) reaped the benefits. Now, of course, on base percentage is quoted just as often as the old standby, the batting average, and it's displayed on scoreboards and television screens across the country. OBP is no longer undervalued by the market, and so teams looking for an edge no longer prioritize it as the Holy Grail of statistics.

According to SI's Albert Chen, defense is the new byword, and the movement is being spearheaded by the Seattle Mariners, who, despite scoring fewer runs than anyone in the American League, won 85 games last year, overcoming a pitching staff that essentially boasted Felix Hernandez and no one else. These same Mariners went 4-2 against your very own Boston Red Sox, on the back of a defense and run prevention strategy.


Theo's not stupid. He saw what we all saw: a stacked lineup (and bottomless pockets) to the south, and a team out west with a small payroll but good results. He put two and two together, added Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro, and as a result, Sox fans are about to be treated to a parade of defensive gems from April to [hopefully] sometime in October. This offense will be just fine, and the defense promises to be one of the best New England has seen. Let's all just take a deep breath and relax... and if you really feel the need to worry about something, I suggest you fret over the state of Beltre's balls.

He's nothing like that OTHER 23...

I think he'll fit in just fine here in New England. Just the fact that he - a veteran player, no less - stopped to chat with the fans speaks volumes about his ability to embrace the environment in Boston.

Just from that short clip, it's easy to see that Mike Cameron has at least a basic grasp of the history of the franchise: I mean, he understood that #24 was "semi-retired," not just because of the petulant Manny Being Manny Ramirez, but because of the inimitable Dwight "Dewey" Evans, who played his last game in 1991.

He also appreciated Francona's quip about a certain shortstop that John Henry is still paying:


"Tito told me, 'Hey, if you wear twenty-three, make sure you don't miss the first ball, cause the fans are all gonna say LUUUU-GOOOOO!!!'"

Be honest, folks: that's totally something we would do. However, it doesn't look like it will be necessary, as Cameron seems like the type of confident (and competent), yet easy-going player who thrives in Boston. I know that the Ellsbury fangirls (and fanboys) are howling that Golden Boy is moving over to accommodate a thirty-seven year old journeyman. Please, let him show you what he can do. Personally, I plan on loving him, and I hope you'll all give him a chance, too.

Everything you own in a box to the left...

According to the Providence Journal, Jacoby Ellsbury has been relegated to playing left field for the near future. Mike Cameron has almost exclusively been manning center field for his entire fifteen-year career, and he's good at it.

As quick as Ellsbury is - and we've all seen that speed in action, ahem, Andy Pettitte -


Cameron is the better defender, at least according to metrics such as UZR and WAR. Though Ellsbury's quickness is undeniable, he tends to take a roundabout route to balls hit in his area, resulting in the inefficient use of his blazing speed.

Understandably, Golden Boy was a bit upset when Tito called to break the news:

"He was worried that it was a demotion, which it is not," explained Francona. "I kind of insured him of that. I just think we're tying to put guys where we think they can make the biggest impression. Cam was great, for a guy who is 37-years-old and played center field his whole life, he said, 'Hey, I'll play anywhere.' So it was just a decision based on what's best for our team." - projo.com

Ells has played left field as recently as 2008, when he was platooning with Coco Crisp (remember him?), and he performed very well. While Jacoby doesn't have a cannon for an arm, he's no Johnny Damon, either, so I don't see this arrangement becoming a problem, though it does leave Jeremy Hermida out in the cold.

Ellsbury is too young to play the scorned lover card and pout - the man's still making the league minimum - and I'm sure he's too proud for that, anyway. As things stand, I like the Red Sox outfield. A lot.

Welcoming Another #23

Mike Cameron got up on the podium with Theo today and tried on his Red Sox jersey for the very first time. The number on the back? Good old #23.


Yes, 23... the number worn by three Red Sox players last season alone. Of course, Julio Lugo had worn the number since he joined the team in 2007 (Alex Cora generously switched to 13 so Lugo could have his preferred number), and when he was shipped to St. Louis, Adam LaRoche donned the uniform. (What? You don't remember LaRoche? He was with Boston for exactly six games, and by a weird stroke of chance, I was at Fenway for his one and only home run with the team, against Baltimore on July 25th.) LaRoche got flipped to Atlanta shortly thereafter, and speedster Joey Gathwright ended the season in jersey #23.

Let's hope that Cameron has more sucess and/or staying power than the last three guys to wear the number. According to Boston.com, Cameron has not played a corner outfield position since "his collision with Carlos Beltran in 2005," but has indicated his willingness to play in front of the Green Monster.

As we all know, Jacoby Ellsbury is able to play all three outfield positions without issues, which we saw in 2008 when he was platooning with Coco Crisp, but it makes sense that coaches would want to sit down with the two of them to discuss how best to work things out. This also begs the question: what about Jeremy Hermida? Perhaps given Cameron's age (37 next month), and JD Drew's injury history, Hermida will be a bench guy, though he seems to need more everyday seasoning to realize his potential, so he could also be used as trade bait.

All in all, I like the Cameron signing, even though it's looking more and more like Jason Bay will be playing in Queens, or, at the very least, not in Boston. Somehow, we need to get some of that power back, and Theo has apparently (again, according to Boston.com) been dropping hints that it's "easier to obtain a bat than a pitcher during the season, so that could be an indication that he's willing to wait to make another significant move."

Here's hoping that "significant move" comes in the way of Adrian Gonzalez, and that it happens well before the trade deadline. Perhaps Theo wants to wait and see how the John Lackey signing pans out before dealing Clay Buchholz, or Jed Hoyer wants reassurance that Clay can continue his run of success at the major league level (7-4, 4.21 ERA in the latter half of 2009) before trading a franchise player away for him?

Either way, all of this Hot Stove Action has not been conducive to my studying (it's finals week), but I'm still a fan of it. Check back later today or tomorrow for an entry on John Lackey, while I don't study enough for my American Presidency exam (sorry, Professor).