2013 Bill James Projections - Daniel Bard

2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
2012: 5-6, 59.1 IP, 43 BB, 38 SO, 6.22 ERA, 0 saves
2013 projection: 3-4, 67 IP, 28 BB, 67 SO, 3.63 ERA, 1 save

We saw it before, when the Yankees screwed up the development of Joba Chamberlain, switching him from starter to reliever and back again, instituting the "Joba Rules" of innings limits and generally making certain to squander the potential of their best reliever outside of the legendary Mariano Rivera.

There were fans who were concerned that the same thing would happen to Daniel Bard when the idea of switching him to a starter was first floated last offseason. I have to admit that I did not share those concerns  despite the fact that Bard's biggest stride in the minor leagues was made when he was switched from the rotation to the bullpen; I should have seen this coming.

The Daniel Bard as a starter experiment was a failure of epic proportions, in a season marked by failures on every level. After a somewhat promising Spring Training, it became very clear once the season started that Bard wasn't working in the rotation. He made ten starts, but ended the season as disappointed as the rest of us.

Hopefully a return to the bullpen will improve Bard's numbers as much as Bill James and his team seems to think - an ERA drop of almost three full runs is nothing to sneeze at. The rotation is (for the moment) full, and there's no need for Bard to deal the the added pressures of closing, since the Red Sox currently have two experienced closers. In addition, the presence of John Farrell can only help things for formerly struggling Red Sox pitchers. I think (I hope!) Bard will return to his former dominance in an eighth inning role in 2013.

Fist-pump at your own risk.

FINALLY... My finals are over, grades are in (excpet for one particulaly delinquent professor), and aside from a few administrative things, I'm done with sophomore year. You guys know what that means: I'm now free to focus on the more important things in life - like baseball.

Last nights heart attack of a game was actually the first time in about a week and a half that I got to watch more than 3 innings of a Sox game, and I sure picked the right one.

As soon as I was able to tune in, my least favorite player (ever) started melting down. Yes, I'm referring to Joba Chamberlain AGAIN... the kid's a punk, and watching him blow the game for New York was absolutely delicious. The first PLAY I saw was least-favorite-players two and three botching a Scutaro grounder - an A*Rod throw that pulled Mr. Leigh Teixeira off the bag at first. So. Much. Gloating. What an expensive error, eh? Between the two of them, A*Rod and Marky-Mark are pulling down nearly $60million this year.


I'll be back later with a longer post (probably a State of the Sox update), but I had to take this opportunity when I had ten free minutes and give you patient readers something after my extended absence!

The Adventures of Y-FAB

After the debacle of last night's game, I didn't get to bed until after 3 (for a variety of reasons, all ridiculous). When I finally woke up, it was no longer an appropriate time for breakfast, so I went to get some lunch with my roommate. At the Cave (on-campus sandwich place), I was once again verbally accosted by my BFF, Yankee-Fan Asshole-Boy (hereafter referred to as Y-FAB).


(Y-FAB): So did you watch the game last night?



(Me): Yes, in fact, I watched the entire thing.



: So you saw how it ended...?



: Your team won on an error... Congrats!



: *Dirty look, pause* ...At least my team is still in it.



: True.


And then I walked away.

However, the exchange got me thinking: who are these Angels, and why didn't THEY show up for the LDS? Anaheim made one total error in their entire three-game performance against the Red Sox (catchers interference in Game 1). In the last two games alone, the Angels defense has recorded five miscues against New York, including the game changer from last night.

What the hell, Angels?!?

You're playing against a team who shrugged off one of its pitcher's DUI conviction, while you still mourn a fallen teammate for Christ's sake! If that's not enough to make you angry enough to punch Joba Chamberlain in the face, I don't know what it will take!

Here's some more reasons for the Angels to hate New York:

A*Rod blatantly tackled your catcher in Game 1, and didn't even try to slide.

Jeter patronizes your teammates (and does unnecessary pirouettes).

And they pie each other in the face whenever they have a walkoff win.

KICK THEIR BUTTS, ANGELS!!!

Quote of the Day

First, the explanation: Jason Bay is a ninja/superhero.

Impossible! You say Jason Bay is Canadian, one of our gentle neighbors to the north.  But what better secret identity than the son of a smelter worker in Trail, British Columbia?  If you've seen the new X-Men: Origins film, then you know there's no better alter ego than a Canadian... Sure, Wolverine went for the whole "lumberjack" thing, but Jason Bay doesn't like flannel.

Hugh Jackman likes flannel... and being a lumberjack.

Jason Bay knows it's easier to keep his cover at home in Canada, and it was MUCH easier in Pittsburgh (none of my friends from Pittsburgh understand why baseball is fun... I pity them).  In Boston, Bay has to take sneaky to a whole new level.  For instance, he asked Tito to bat him low in the order so people wouldn't see his conspicuous super strength in the cleanup spot; unfortunately, Youk couldn't go last night, so Super-Bay stepped in.  BAM! Three run homer.  

Even though Boston Red Sox fans would accept Bay's super powers, he still has to hide them, garnering this quote, concerning stealing bases:

"I didn't run one time in Spring Training.  I didn't want to blow my cover."

Jason Bay is a phenomenal base stealer, at least percentage wise.  I for one am convinced that the only reason he doesn't leave Jacoby in the dust every year is respect for the young man's ego coupled with the realization that being a super hero just leads to brawls with jealous Yankees fans.  Jason Bay doesn't want to hurt anyone... Except maybe Joba Chamberlain, and that is one fight I would LOVE to see.

Jason Bay will see your HBP and raise you a three-run homer... Oh, and invisibility, he can do that, too.

(Just want to clarify that all quotes on this blog are collected from other sites, because I don't have the necessary credentials to get into the Sox locker room... and even if I did, it's finals week.  I'm clearly very busy studying.  This quote was found on WEEI.com)

Inter-rivalry bromance (TTT)

Introducing a new type of post: Top Ten Tweets of the game.  For any of you who aren't familiar with Twitter, Google it (then join: it's fun!)

10.) "I know I want tickets to the Pedroia gun show!!!" Melky Cabrera tried to stretch a double into a triple in the bottom of the fourth inning, but Drew corralled it and gave Pedroia a great throw to relay in to Mikey Lowell for the out.  Pedroia has an absolute cannon, which we don't really get to see because he's the second baseman.  Also, props to Drew for getting to the ball so quickly and being so spot on with his throw.  (Below: The Dustin Pedroia gun show.)

9.) "Big Papi loves him some Yankee Stadium."  David Ortiz has traditionally mashed at Yankee Stadium, so what better place to get him back on track?  Tonight Ortiz went 1-for-3 with two walks, bringing his average to .225... If the first step is hitting your weight, Papi needs another game or so (he's listed at 230)... but he's successfully hitting everyone else's weight except for Hunter Jones (235), Brad Penny (230... yeah, right), and Jason Varitek (230). (Below: the Curse of Big Papi.)

8.) "Captain Jeter's range is soooo bad... I love it."  Don't get me wrong, I have more respect for Jeter than for any other Yankee (except possibly Rivera), but he is not a productive shortstop anymore.  For all of his crazy pirouettes, Jeter can't reach a dribbler that I would even expect Julio Lugo to make a play on.  I wouldn't want to be the one to tell him he has to switch positions... (Below: Jeter throws to first... unfortunately, the runner is already at second.)

7.) "Oh, but it's so nice to watch Teixeira struggle." The Yankees first baseman went 1-for-4 with two K's (both courtesy of Beckett).  There's one guy who can't wait for A*Rod to come back... if only because it will take some of the scrutiny off of him.  Oh, and speaking of hitting your weight? Teixeira isn't even close (.198 average, listed at 220). (Below: Epic, expensive, FAIL.)

6.) "Joba's obviously upset that Youk's not in the lineup tonight.... I wonder who he'll throw at instead...?"  Though Joba had exceptional control tonight - the NESN commentators were waxing poetic about him - he still managed to do this...

5.) "Guess Joba just likes to hit the cleanup batter... Youk? Bay? Doesn't matter to him."  Hall of Fame Pitcher Dennis Eckersley was in the booth tonight, and was immediately up in arms about Joba's bean ball pitch.  He called it "obviously intentional," as well as "inexcusable," especially since Joba had been putting the ball exactly where he wanted it all night.  I just think Joba's pissed that his mom got caught dealing meth. (Below: Joba's mom.)

4.) "Wow. Do you think NESN's cameras could zero in on someone else when Pedroia is packing a HUGE lip?" I mean, I know he's one of the most recognizable people on the team, but seriously... He's not someone you zoom in on in the dugout.  If he's not dropping vehement f-bombs, he's packing a bomb.  Obviously, the whole spitting tobacco juice thing is super attractive AND healthy, so I understand why NESN would want to showcase it to America's youth. (Below: Pedroia, packing a lip as usual.)

3.) "I'll take hit batsman to load the bases, for $600, Alex." The Yankees intentionally walked JD Drew in the eighth, which is probably a good call, since he has no feelings and is a great hitter when the pressure is on.  Add that to the fact that Jeff bailey was scheduled up, and I would make the same decision.  However, the Yankees bullpen is just a big bowl of suck this season, and Bailey got hit with a pitch to load the bases.  The Sox would score two runs in that inning. (Below: Alex Trebek loves the Red Sox. No really, he does.)

2.) "Nick Green, will you marry me?"  Now, I know what you're thinking, and it's not just the potential for free baseball tickets that led me to make this proposal.  The Sox have won 15 straight when Green starts, and lost all four when Lugo has.  Green has a .283 average, while Lugo is hitting a dismal .214 (at least he's beating Teixeira!).  All other things being equal (they're both rather error prone), I'll take Green... At least until Lowrie is ready. (Below: Green practicing his Jeterian pirouettes.. coming soon, the patented fist pump.)

1.) "LOVE PEDROIA... Pedey throws out Jeter (his BFFL) for the last out, completing the sweep."  There are so many good things here: Jeter's out, we win, SWEEP.  But after the WBC, we know that Pedroia and Jeter have a bit of a bromance going on, so we should be thankful that they can bear to play each other.  Hey, it could be worse, Pedey could be bosom buddies with A*Rod.... except he thinks A*Rod is "a dork."  (Below: inter-rivalry bromance.)

Best Friends For LIFE!!!  As long as we're winning, I'm okay with this.

Agreeing to Disagree: What to do when you befriend the enemy

Yesterday I remembered why it's difficult, as a Sox fan, to befriend Yankees fans.  My Yankee fan friend and I were walking back from dinner pre-game, and I went on an impassioned rant of what I would do to Joba Chamberlain if he threw at Youk again.  She insisted that Joba would never do such a thing.  I stopped dead.  "Au contrair," I told her, then, remembering that I don't speak French, switched back to English.  I carefully documented all of the times Chamberlain has thrown behind and at the Red Sox first baseman, often near his head.  She insisted he wouldn't do it on purpose, and that he really just had control issues.  I quoted Joba's BB/9 as on the good side.  "He just gets nervous in big games," she claimed.  I scoffed.  We agreed to disagree.

Usually, the two of us have no problems discussing baseball together.  However, this weekend marks the first time since we met that our teams will be facing each other in something besides Spring Training.  I tried to see this issue from her perspective, and decided that if it was someone on the Sox headhunting, say, Robinson Cano, I'd probably behave the same way.  And neither of us really knows whether Joba throws at Youk on purpose (he didn't yesterday, so who knows?), because the only person who really knows is Chamberlain himself.  And since we can't ever really know, we'll have to let it go.

I'm sure we'll find something else to talk about...

Like this guy, and the fact that he's barely hitting his weight.

Best Tweet of last night, RT from abcdude: Since Joba Chamberlain can't get by on his looks, at least he's smart. And a safe driver. 

Inspired.

Around the Horn: Kevin Youkilis

Going through the Red Sox one player at a time, by position, while hoping that by the time I get to catcher Theo will have signed someone other than Josh Bard for me to talk about. First up, our first baseman, Kevin Youkilis.

After Dustin Pedroia, Youk is probably my favorite Sox player. Even though the goatee is getting a little out of hand, you have to love the hard-nosed way he plays the game, especially during an era in which the "superstars" have decided that it's beneath them to run out a ground ball. Remember the scuffle between Youk and Manny this summer in the dugout? Apparently, Manny was annoyed at Youk's behavior [mostly the fact that he mourns every out he makes like the loss of a loved one]. News flash, Mr. Ramirez: fans would much rather see Youkilis mouth profanities after striking out on a nasty fastball from Mariano Rivera than watch you standing in the batter's box, thinking you've hit a homer off of some no-name rookie, then seeing you stranded on first base on what could [should] have been a sure double. Weird, right?

Anyway, as a player, you can't ask for much more than what Kevin Youkilis gives you. His 2008 stats: in 145 games Youk hit .312, had an OBP of .390, and slugged .569. He hit 29 home runs, six more than Big Papi, who admittedly was not himself. For all the Mark Teixeira mania, I'm totally OK with having Youkilis as the first baseman; after all, they have eerily similar stats. Youk is marginally the weaker hitter, but it would really depend on what statistics you consider most important. Youkilis' batting average was actually four points higher than Teixeira's, but if you subscribe to the Billy Beane theory that OBP trumps all, than you might take Teixeira's .410 over Youk's .390 - but it's not like the numbers are drastically different.

Youkilis also has uncommon versatility for someone of his hitting prowess. As we all saw when Mike Lowell succumbed to his hip injury, Youk plays a mean third base. Most Sox fans know that he actually came up as a third baseman, and made the switch to first pretty late in his development, turning himself into a Gold Glove first baseman who set the record for consecutive errorless games at the position.

The bearded wonder is also one of those players who can always be depended on to get his uniform dirty. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which Sox fans generally love, though players around baseball find it rather grating [no one more so, apparently, than Joba Chamberlain]. In his spare time, Youkilis and his new wife run a charity foundation, Youk's Hits for Kids. The proceeds from his charity events go to benefit children in the Boston and Cincinnati areas.

According to the Boston Globe, Youkilis will go with a one year contract this year: though the Sox did talk to his agent about a long term deal a la Dustin Pedroia, the sides were too far apart to come to an agreement this year. Hopefully, they'll be able to come to terms in the upcoming year, because I for one hope to see Kevin Youkilis anchoring the corners at Fenway for years to come.