2016 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO

2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO

2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO

2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO

2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO

2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO

2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

2015: 7-7, 18 starts, 113.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 23 BB, 107 SO

2016 projection: 10-9, 28 starts, 171 IP, 3.47 ERA, 44 BB, 136 SO

I don't know about you guys, but I've long since given up the idea that clay Buchholz will ever be the kind of pitcher who can give the Red Sox 200 innings - and it seems that Bill James and his team have decided to give up the idea that he'll even come that close.

And you know what? That's okay. One of the many, many reasons the Red Sox needed to sign themselves an ace was to take the pressure to perform at that level off of Buchholz's shoulders. Buchholz's best season in recent years was in 2013, when he was the number 4 pitcher entering the World Series (following Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy). Even at the season's outset, when expectations were low, the undisputed "ace" was always Lester.

Buchholz has never seemed like a guy who handles pressure well. That, plus an inability to stay stay healthy (probably linked to an inability to keep any bulk on his thin frame) means that while he still shows flashes of brilliance, the addition of David Price to the rotation can only help Buchholz's overall performance.