2016 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO

2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO

2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO

2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO

2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO

2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO

2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

2015: 7-7, 18 starts, 113.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 23 BB, 107 SO

2016 projection: 10-9, 28 starts, 171 IP, 3.47 ERA, 44 BB, 136 SO

I don't know about you guys, but I've long since given up the idea that clay Buchholz will ever be the kind of pitcher who can give the Red Sox 200 innings - and it seems that Bill James and his team have decided to give up the idea that he'll even come that close.

And you know what? That's okay. One of the many, many reasons the Red Sox needed to sign themselves an ace was to take the pressure to perform at that level off of Buchholz's shoulders. Buchholz's best season in recent years was in 2013, when he was the number 4 pitcher entering the World Series (following Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy). Even at the season's outset, when expectations were low, the undisputed "ace" was always Lester.

Buchholz has never seemed like a guy who handles pressure well. That, plus an inability to stay stay healthy (probably linked to an inability to keep any bulk on his thin frame) means that while he still shows flashes of brilliance, the addition of David Price to the rotation can only help Buchholz's overall performance.

2015 Bill James Projections: Xander Bogaerts

Source

2013: 18 games, .250 BA, .320 OBP, .364 SLG, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2014 projection: 156 games, .283 BA, .357 OBP, .450 SLG, 19 HR, 84 RBI
2014: 144 games, .240 BA, .297 OBP, .362 SLG, 12 HR, 46 RBI
2015 projection: 156 games, .264 BA, .328 OBP, .407 SLG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
2015: 156 games, .320 BA, .355 OBP, .421 SLG, 7 HR, 81 RBI
2016 projection: 152 games, .298 BA, .348 OBP, .425 SLG, 12 HR, 76 RBI

Without Xander Bogaerts and his similarly young and talented teammates (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., etc.), the entirety of 2015 would have been spent wallowing in despair over the absolute joke of a pitching staff and the injury bug that seemed to keep every veteran player off the field for extended periods of time.

Bogaerts really came into his own in 2015 - and with a monopoly on the shortstop position, he performed at the plate. It seems that some predictability on the defensive side of things helped his consistency on offense. Bogaerts won his first ever Silver Slugger award in 2015, after a season that saw him top several offensive categories among AL shortstops.

Bill James and his team project another good year at the plate for Bogaerts in 2016, with perhaps just a smidge more power. As always, the single best thing about Xander Bogaerts is his age: he won't be a free agent until 2020 - but don't get too attached, as he's represented by Scott Boras.

For the foreseeable future, though, Bogaerts will don a Red Sox uniform, and I for one plan to enjoy each and every minute.

2016 Bill James Projections: Dustin Pedroia

Source

2011 projection: 158 games, .297 BA, .372 OBP, .462 SLG, 17 HR, 77 RBI 
2011: 159 games, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBI 
2012 projection: 143 games, .299 BA, .378 OBP, .469 SLG, 17 HR, 73 RBI
2012: 141 games, .290 BA, .347 OBP, .449 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI 
2013 projection: 156 games, .296 BA, .367 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 76 RBI 
2013: 160 games, .301 BA, .372 OBP, .415 SLG, 9 HR, 84 RBI

2014 projection: 157 games, .298 BA, .371 OBP, .443 SLG, 14 HR, 77 RBI
2014: 135 games, .278 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG, 7 HR, 53 RBI
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .361 OBP, .421 SLG, 12 HR, 70 RBI

2015: 93 games, .291 BA, .356 OBP, .441 SLG, 12 HR, 42 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .288 BA, .359 OBP, .427 SLG, 13 HR, 64 RBI

The 2015 season saw Dustin Pedroia take the field fewer times than any year since he broke his foot in 2010. Pedroia looked promising out of the gate, clubbing two home runs on Opening Day in Philadelphia, but would soon be sidelined with a hamstring strain, speanding the rest of the season bouncing on and off the disabled list.

Pedroia's all-in, every play, every day approach is endearing, but dangerous. He puts his body on the line in every situation - even when it might not be totally necessary, and as he gets older, that kind of dedication will only result in more pains, strains, and pulls. 

But the good news is that Pedroia often turns in an excellent season the year after an injury - possibly because his body has a little extra time to recover from the abuse he puts it through. Bill James and his team project Pedroia to stay on the field a bit more in 2016, and there's no question that Pedroia will be giving it his all each and every day.

2016 Bill James Projections: Mookie Betts

Source

2014: 52 games, .291 BA, .368 OBP, .444 SLG, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB

2015 projection: 154 games, .321 BA, .405 OBP, .493 SLG, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 40 SB

2015: 145 games, .291 BA, .341 OBP, .479 SLG, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 21 SB

2016 projection: 150 games, .309 BA, .375 OBP, .504 SLG, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 28 SB

Though Mookie Betts came in on the low side of most of Bill James' 2015 projections, I don't think many Red Sox fans could find much fault in his first full season in the big leagues. Betts blossomed into a great center fielder who holds his own at the plate, and he won't hit twenty-four until next October.

One of the things that might be overlooked in Betts is his plate discipline. The 2016 Bill James Handbook rates him as Very Patient at the plate, even singling him out in the following tidbit: "In 650 plate appearances, [Kris] Bryant whiffed* 448 times, or 303 more than Mookie Betts in four fewer plate appearances."

That's right, Betts swung and missed just 145 times in 654 plate appearances, striking out 82 times (Bryant struck out 199 times in 2015). Not a bad season when you can be very favorably compared to the Rookie of the Year.

But aside from his prowess at the plate, Betts has seamlessly transitioned from a second baseman into a center fielder. While it's easy to recall one of the several spectacular grabs Betts made in the outfield this season, he put in the work day in and day out, and was in the top 10 in runs saves for center fielders in 2015 with nine.

In a season where a lot of things went wrong, Betts and other young Red Sox players provided the bright spots. I can't wait to see what kind of a show he puts on in 2016.

*"Whiffed" in this context means swinging and missing, not striking out.