2016 Bill James Projections: David Price

 

Source

2010: 19-6, 31 starts, 208.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 79 BB, 188 SO
2011 projection: 14-10, 32 starts, 217 IP, 3.57 ERA, 87 BB, 191 SO
2011: 12-13, 34 starts, 224.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 63 BB, 218 SO
2012 projection: 15-10, 34 starts, 226 IP, 3.31 ERA, 73 BB, 207 SO
2012: 20-5, 31 starts, 211 IP, 2.56 ERA, 59 BB, 205 SO (Cy Young winner)
2013 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 216 IP, 3.13 ERA, 63 BB, 202 SO
2013: 10-8, 27 starts, 186.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 27 BB, 151 SO
2014 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 218 IP, 3.01 ERA, 44 BB, 195 SO
2014: 15-12, 34 starts, 248.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 38 BB, 271 SO
2015 projection: 16-9, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 36 BB, 211 SO
2015: 18-5, 32 starts, 220.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 47 BB, 225 SO
2016 projection: 17-8, 32 starts, 223 IP, 3.03 ERA, 42 BB, 214 SO

After last year's (lack of) pitching fiasco, the Red Sox simply needed to go out this offseason and get themselves an ace. Luckily, the field was deep, including Zack Greinke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann. Red Sox Nation could feel confident that Opening Day would dawn with at least one of these guys taking the mound for the Red Sox.

I know many Red Sox fans would have preferred Greinke over Price. I was not one of them. We'll never know how Zack Greinke would have fared in a Red Sox uniform and in the AL East - and I'm guessing he much prefers it that way. Price, on the other hand, has pitched in the AL East for most of his career, and relishes the attention that comes with that.

As for the oft-cited enmity that existed between Price and Red Sox slugger David Ortiz? Anyone who thinks the two can't bury the hatchet to pursue the shared goal of a World Series Championship is seriously insulting both players' professionalism. I for one expect the two of them to show up to spring training sporting matching "Team David" t-shirts if it means the end of the discussion regarding their prior dislike for one another, and a renewed focus on winning.

At the end of the day, David Price is an ace. You can cite his less-than-impressive postseason numbers all you want (though please keep in mind we're dealing with small sample sizes and some curious managerial decisions regarding his use), but at the end of the day, he's a member of the Red Sox. Not to mention... you have to actually get to October before any of that is even a factor, something the Red Sox have failed to do quite often in recent years.

Bill James and his team project David Price to have another characteristically excellent season in 2016, complete with 200+ innings, and a strikeout to walk ratio over 5. David Price is an incredible athlete and competitor, and he's coming into Boston in 2016 with something to prove. I for one can't wait to watch.

2016 Bill James Projections: Hanley Ramirez

Source

2011: 92 games, .243 BA, .333 OBP, .379 SLG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB
2012 projection: 136 games, .298 BA, .379 OBP, .489 SLG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 28 SB
2012: 157 games, .257 BA, .322 OBP, .437 SLG, 24 HR, 92 RBI, 21 SB
2013 projection: 144 games, .281 BA, .356 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB
2013: 86 games, .345 BA, .402 OBP, .638 SLG, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB
2014 projection: 151 games, .296 BA, .368 OBP, .505 SLG, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 23 SB
2014: 128 games, .283 BA, .369 OBP, .448 SLG, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB
2015 projection: 151 games, .290 BA, .367 OBP, .476 SLG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB
2015: 105 games, .249 BA, .291 OBP, .426 SLG, 19 HR, 53 RBI
2016 projection: 136 games, .277 BA, .346 OBP, .462 SLG, 23 HR, 80 RBI

I think I'm in the minority of Red Sox fans when I say that I still don't hate the Hanley Ramirez deal. Especially given the (borderline tragic) news that 2016 will be David Ortiz's final year manning the designated hitter slot for the Red Sox, I actually like the Ramirez signing better than ever.

Was last year a relative disappointment? Sure. But Ramirez played just under 65% of a full season last year, and hit nearly 20 home runs. He only missed all that time in the first place because he got injured early on playing an unfamiliar position - one much more challenging than the one he'll be asked to play this season.

On Opening Day 2015, Hanley Ramirez hit two home runs, one of them a grand slam. While that kind of production is obviously unrealistic on a game-by-game basis, you'd be lying to yourself if you said that performance didn't make you practically giddy with anticipation over what Ramirez might accomplish in a Red Sox uniform.

No one, not even a fully healthy and committed Hanley Ramirez, will ever come close to duplicating the production David Ortiz has had in Boston. But without the burden of playing in left field - and eventually, without the burden of playing anywhere but the plate - Ramirez could change a lot of minds.

Bill James and his team project Ramirez to have a better season in 2016 than the one we endured last year. Ramirez himself has pledged his dedication to staying fit and dedicated for the upcoming campaign. Of course, he promised us the same thing last year, and actions speak louder than words. I genuinely believe that Boston could be great for Ramirez, and vice versa. Hopefully he spends 2016 doing his absolute damnedest to prove the haters wrong.

2016 Bill James Projections: Clay Buchholz

Source

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO

2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO

2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO

2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO

2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO

2013: 12-1, 16 starts, 108.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 36 BB, 96 SO

2014 projection: 12-9, 29 starts, 190 IP, 3.46 ERA, 64 BB, 153 SO

2014: 8-11, 28 starts, 170.1 IP, 5.34 ERA, 54 BB, 132 SO

2015 projection: 12-10, 29 starts, 196 IP, 3.58 ERA, 62 BB, 156 SO

2015: 7-7, 18 starts, 113.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 23 BB, 107 SO

2016 projection: 10-9, 28 starts, 171 IP, 3.47 ERA, 44 BB, 136 SO

I don't know about you guys, but I've long since given up the idea that clay Buchholz will ever be the kind of pitcher who can give the Red Sox 200 innings - and it seems that Bill James and his team have decided to give up the idea that he'll even come that close.

And you know what? That's okay. One of the many, many reasons the Red Sox needed to sign themselves an ace was to take the pressure to perform at that level off of Buchholz's shoulders. Buchholz's best season in recent years was in 2013, when he was the number 4 pitcher entering the World Series (following Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy). Even at the season's outset, when expectations were low, the undisputed "ace" was always Lester.

Buchholz has never seemed like a guy who handles pressure well. That, plus an inability to stay stay healthy (probably linked to an inability to keep any bulk on his thin frame) means that while he still shows flashes of brilliance, the addition of David Price to the rotation can only help Buchholz's overall performance.