Saturday, November 8, 2014

2015 Bill James Projections: David Ortiz

Source
2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI
2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI
2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI
2013: 137 games, .309 BA, .395 OBP, .564 SLG, 30 HR, 103 RBI
2014 projection: 146 games, .287 BA, .384 OBP, .531 SLG, 30 HR, 98 RBI
2014: 142 games, .263 BA, .355 OBP, .517 SLG, 35 HR, 104 RBI
2015 projection: 144 games, .275 BA, .371 OBP, .517 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

David Ortiz's batting average might be the only metric by which he shows his age, and it's still well within the acceptable range. The legendary lefty's power numbers are perennially strong, and he's as beloved by fans as he was a decade ago.

The Red Sox are one of the few teams left in the American League that employ a true DH; most other clubs use the DH spot to give players a day or two to rest without being pulled from the lineup. 

Players like Adam Dunn or Victor Martinez might play their share of games as the DH, but they're coming off careers as position players. David Ortiz, on the other hand, has been a designated hitter far longer than he ever played first base - and he's excellent at it.

I'm not worried about Big Papi in 2015 - he's done a reasonable job meeting - and often surpassing - Bill James' projections in the last few years. Someday soon, we will have to face the reality of David Ortiz's baseball mortality. But today is not that day.

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