Tuesday, February 4, 2014

2014 Bill James Projections - Daniel Nava

©2013 Kayla Chadwick
2012: 88 games, .243 BA, .352 OBP, .390 SLG, 6 HR, 33 RBI
2013 projection: 87 games, .266 BA, .367 OBP, .414 SLG, 6 HR, 35 RBI
2013: 134 games, .303 BA, .385 OBP, .445 SLG, 12 HR, 66 RBI
2014 projection: 121 games, .285 BA, .377 OBP, .435 SLG, 11 HR, 59 RBI

Daniel Nava has been fighting for his baseball life throughout his career. He was undrafted out of college, and then when the Red Sox signed him out of the independent leagues, they paid just $1 for the right.

After languishing in the minors for three full years, he made his major league debut on June 12, 2010 against the Phillies - and deposited the first pitch he saw into bleachers for a grand slam. I was at that game, so Nava will always have a special place in my heart.

Daniel Nava was never supposed to make it. He wasn't supposed to be able to succeed at any level, but he's made a career out of succeeding at every level. Nava is currently first on the Red Sox depth chart in left field, so barring any major adjustments he should finally get the chance to be an every day player.

At this point, it would be a fool's errand to underestimate Nava - and I think that's exactly what Bill James and co. have done this year. I don't see Nava's batting average taking a nearly twenty point plunge just when he'll get the chance to be an everyday starter.

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