2013 Bill James Projections - Clay Buchholz

2011 projection: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 74 BB, 168 SO
2011: 6-3, 14 starts, 82.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 31 BB, 60 SO
2012 projection: 13-8, 30 starts, 191 IP, 3.53 ERA, 73 BB, 162 SO
2012: 11-8, 29 starts, 189.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 64 BB, 129 SO

2013 projection: 12-11, 30 starts, 205 IP, 3.56 ERA,  72 BB, 163 SO

Possibly the most striking thing about Clay Buchholz's 2012 performance is that he managed to hold on to a positive winning percentage and win eleven games while his ERA leaped up more than a full run from 2011.  Buchholz made a huge jump in innings between the injury-riddled 2011 campaign and last season, tossing a career high 189.1 innings in 2012.

Bill James projects that Buch will continue to make strides in the 2013 season, with a new career high in innings (205), and a bounceback in his ERA to a much more acceptable 3.56.  It's easy to think of Buchholz as the skinny kid that came up for a cup of coffee in 2007 and won three games in three starts that fall - partly because he still looks just the same.

But 2007 was five years ago, and Clay Buchholz will be 28 next season (29 in August), a player entering his baseball prime. He's not a kid anymore, and if we're ever going to look to him to step up and be a leader on the staff, this has to be the time. I think John Farrell's presence will be good for the pitching staff: though he's the manager and not the pitching coach, he has a lot of respect from the Red Sox staff. I don't think there will be too many pitchers skipping out on their workouts or sneaking from the dugout during games to drink beer on Farrell's watch.

Hopefully Clay can eek out a few more wins than James has him projected for, but even if he can't, a pitcher with 205 innings is certainly nothing to sneeze at.

2013 Bill James Projections - Jon Lester (with Wil Meyers)

2011 projection: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 82 BB, 193 SO
2011: 15-9, 31 starts, 191.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 75 BB, 182 SO
2012 projection: 15-9, 31 starts, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 74 BB, 180 SO
2012: 9-14, 33 starts, 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 68 BB, 166 SO
2013 projection: 12-12, 33 starts, 211 IP, 3.71 ERA, 75 BB, 192 SO

It's obvious that 2012 was by far Jon Lester's most disappointing season.  Like most of 2012, Lester's poor performance started at the end of 2011, and though he was one of the only players in the "Beer and Chicken Scandal" to take personal responsibility, that display of moral fiber didn't improve his numbers.

Looking at Bill James' 2012 projections next to Lester's actual performance, and you might see a pitcher who has somewhat lost his way: his ERA was more than a FULL RUN higher than James' projection (and Lester's 2011 performance), and for the first time in his career, Jon Lester lost more games than he won.

There's a lot of talk swirling around about a possible trade that would swap Lester for Kansas City Royals outfield prospect Wil Meyers. Meyers has never played a game in the majors, but the consensus around the league is that he'll be ready in 2013 - and for the first time in his career, he's listed in the Bill James Handbook.

2012 (AA-AAA): 134 games, .314 BA, 387. OBP, .600 SLG, 37 HR, 109 RBI
2013 projection: 147 games, .270 BA, .339 OBP, .486 SLG, 28 HR, 89 RBI

Meyers is undoubtedly a solid offensive player. A cost-controlled power hitting outfielder is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but is it good baseball-sense to accept a relative unknown for an established lefthanded starter like Lester? In my humble opinion, no. Despite the backslide of 2012, Lester is a bona fide workhorse. He's averaged 211 innings pitched every season, has avoided major injury, and has had prolonged periods of brilliance.

This trade is certainly not set in stone - or even particularly likely at this point. It wouldn't be the end of the world to swap Lester for Meyers, but it would be the very definition of selling low. Lester is worth much more than he showed in 2012, and while Meyers is very promising, he's not a franchise defining player.

2013 Bill James Projections - Jacoby Ellsbury

2011 projection: 157 games, .300 BA, .355 OBP, .409 SLG, 8 HR, 58 RBI
2011: 158 games, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBI
2012 projection: 158 games, .304 BA, .362 OBP, .476 SLG, 19 HR, 72 RBI
2012: 74 games, .271 BA, .313 OBP, .370 SLG, 4 HR, 26 RBI
2013 projection: 152 games, .294 BA, .346 OBP, .436 SLG, 15 HR, 67 RBI

Looking at Jacoby Ellsbury's "games played" column on baseball-reference.com is like riding a roller coaster.  For the first few full years of his major league career, he played most of the season - and then came the 2010 Parade of Carnage, when broken ribs limited Ellsbury to just 18 games.  This was followed by a career season in 2011: Goldenboy played 158 games, was selected to the All Star Game, came in second in MVP voting, and claimed a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. But then 2012 rolled around, with a meager 74 games played.

This past season was, yet again, marred by injury.  Especially when compared to 2011, 2012 was a HUGE disappointment for Ellsbury.  I sometimes fall into the trap of still thinking about Jacoby Ellsbury as the fresh-faced rookie that stole a base and won America a free taco in the 2007 World Series. But Goldenboy will be thirty years old next season, his seventh in the majors, and we still don't know what to expect from him in any given year.

Jacoby Ellsbury will be a free agent next offseason, and his agent is the infamous Scott Boras.  I think we will probably see a banner year from Ells, since everyone involved knows that the Red Sox will not be interested in paying the Scott Boras Premium when the time comes, and they'll want to showcase his talents to the entire league.  

That being said, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 2011 was a one-time thing.  I don't think Ellsbury is a "face of the team, build a franchise around him" type player - partly because of the constant threat of injury. I think Bill James and his crew are right on: we'll see a resurgence from Ells, but not quite a return to the godliness of 2011.